CHAPTER 2 Inferences

CHAPTER 2 Inferences
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students taking economics classes are, on average, less willing to contribute to certain left-of-center political organizations.
Note:DA QS SI CONCLUDEVA CHE GLI STUDENTI DI ECONOMIA NN ERANO GENEROSI

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less sympathetic to those particular organizations,
Note:CONCLUSIONE CORRETTA

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critical-thinking skills that could lead students to be skeptical of certain agendas.
Note:ALTRA CONCLUSIONE POSSIBILE SULLA DOTAZIONE

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lower tuition for college students is likely to entail higher taxes and/or reduced services for families
Note:ESEMPIO DI ONLUS COINVOLTA E PENSIERO DELL ECONOMISTA

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physics majors are the least compassionate because they are the least likely to offer encouragement to the inventors of perpetual-motion machines.
Note:ANALOGIA PARADOSSALE

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Interpreting evidence is always perilous,
Note:OGGETTO DEL CAPITOLO

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When a university admits 46 percent of its male applicants and only 30 percent of its (equally qualified) female applicants, can we infer gender discrimination?
Note:MOLTI AVVOCATI PENSANO DI SÌ...CAUSA A BERLEY NEL 1973

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someone observed that not a single one of Berkeley’s individual departments appeared to be discriminating.
Note:NEL CORSO DEL PROCESSO....SORPRESA

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women were being disproportionately rejected because women were disproportionately applying to the most selective departments.
Note:SPIEGAZIONE

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focus on the aggregate statistics—that
Note:L ERRORE DI MOLTI...E ANCHE DEGLI AVVOCATI

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1 Jury Selection
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blacks are systematically underrepresented on American juries.
Note:DENUNCIA

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25 percent of white Americans have served
Note:DATO

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25 percent of black Americans have served
Note:Ccccc L ACCUSA SEMBREREBBE INFONDATA

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blacks live primarily in cities, where it’s very common to be called for jury duty,
Note:NO...CI SONO ALTRI FATTORI

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even though 25 percent of blacks and 25 percent of whites have served on juries, blacks are apparently being discriminated against in both the urban and rural areas.
Note:POSSIBILE CONCLUSIONE....ERRORE DELL AGGREGGATO...DI SEGNO CONTRARIO RISPETTO A BERKLEY

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2 Income Trends
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25-year period,
Note:QUANDO

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the median income of all
Note:COSA

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3 percent.
Note:DELTA...AUMENTO

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the median income of white male
Note:COSA 2

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15 percent.
Note:DELTA DUE

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at least one other demographic group (white females, nonwhite males, or nonwhite females), the increase must have been even less than 3 percent?
Note:CONCLUSIONE AFFRETTATA

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White males had 15 percent growth, and every other group had even larger growth—as
Note:LA REALTÀ

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That’s possible partly because the sizes of the groups changed.
Note:SPIEGAZIONE...UN INCREMENTO ELEVATO X POCHI INCREMENTA DI OCO IL TOTALE

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In 1980 the median worker was a white man. By 2005, enough women had entered the workforce that the median worker was a woman. Women do indeed earn less than men,
Note:SONO AUMENTATE LE PERSONE CHE GUADAGNAVANO POCO ANCHE SE PURE LORO SONO MIGLIORATE

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the average math scores of seventeen-year-olds have dropped slightly over the past twenty years or so—even though the scores of the average white student, the average black student, and the average Hispanic student have all increased
Note:ALTRO PARADOSSO: AUMENTANO TUTTI I VOTI MA DIMINUISCE LA MEDIA...XCHÈ AUMENTA IL NUMERO DEI PEGGIORI

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4 The Smoking Gun
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A tobacco company claims to have evidence that cigarettes prevent cancer.
Note:IL CASO

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only 5 percent of nonsmokers get cancer, while 20 percent of smokers do.
Note:IN UN CAMPIONE RAPPRESENTATIVO...STO FATTO È UNA CONFUTAZIONE?

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possible for a single legitimate study to show both that smoking prevents cancer and that cancer strikes smokers disproportionately.
Note:INFATTI

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there might be a single gene (call it the STRS gene) that makes people highly sensitive to stress.
Note:UNA VARIABILE SOPRA LE ALTRE

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aggregate statistic proves nothing.
Note:IN GENERE

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natural experiments where, for example, one state or another suddenly raises the tax on cigarettes,
Note:LE FONTI X SOSTENERE LA DANNOSITÀ DEL FUMO SONO ALTRE

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doctors are pretty sure they understand the mechanism by which smoking causes cancer,
Note:LA SECONDA FONTE

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each step in the mechanism can be tested in a lab.
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Aggregate statistics show that urban areas with large police presences tend to have a lot of crime.
Note:ALTRO INGANNO CLASSICO

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the city of Washington, DC, substantially increases its police presence whenever the national terror alert status is raised from yellow to orange.
Note:UN ESPERIMENTO NATURALE

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when the alert level is orange and there are more police on the streets, crime rates fall substantially.
Note:ESITO

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we know that college graduates typically earn higher wages than high school graduates.
Note:ALTRA SITUAZIONE

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education tends to boost your wages?
Note:PRIMA IPOTESI

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those who already expect to be high earners figure they can afford to waste four years in college?
Note:SECONDA

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a single genetic makeup leads to both a strong work ethic and a taste for higher education?
Note:TERZA

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The gold standard would be another controlled experiment:
Note:PURTROPPO IL PROB È INSOLUBILE

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5 Twin Studies
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Fred and Ed are brothers, three years apart in age. Fred went to college; Ed did not. Fred earns more than Ed.
Note:X ME IL CASO IDEALE X SPERIMENTARE

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Spike and Ike are identical twins. Spike went to college; Ike did not. Spike earns more than Ike.
Note:IL CASO SOPRAVVALUTATO

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there must be some reason why Spike went to college and Ike didn’t. Presumably there was already some important difference there.
Note:XCHÈ SOPRAVVALUTATO

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A lot can happen in three years. The family might have gone bankrupt; a parent might have died;
Note:XCHÈ IL CASO IDEALE...FRED NN È ANDATO AL COLLEGE ANCHE SE I DUE FRATELLI SONO MOLTO SIMILI

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Even identical twins are never truly identical,
Note:PURTROPPO

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Don’t jump to conclusions based solely on aggregate statistics.
Note:LA CONCLUSIONE GENERALE

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don’t jump to conclusions, period. Because sometimes it’s the breakdown statistics that mislead
Note:ANCORA MEGLIO

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7 The Teacher’s Dilemma
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when you praise students for their success, they don’t usually improve very much. In fact, they often dis-improve.
Note:LA SCOPERTA DELL INSEGNANTE...REGRESSIONE ALLA MEDIA?

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when you speak harshly to a weak student, that student usually improves.
Note:VICEVERSA

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weak students have a lot of room for improvement.
Note:È PIÙ FACILE MIGLIORARE SE SEI SCARSO...E VICEVERSA

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Sports Illustrated jinx—sports teams and players who appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated tend to suffer performance declines.
Note:TIPICO DELLO SPORT

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Making the cover of Sports Illustrated is like being praised by your teacher—it
Note:ANALOGIA

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examples of the statistical phenomenon called regression to the mean.
Note:IL FENOMENO

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8 College Education
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Moosylvania State University
Note:DOVE

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its weakest third-year students are generally being held back by poor writing skills.
Note:COSA

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require all freshmen to pass a writing proficiency
Note:RIMEDIO

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Is this policy justified by the evidence?
Note:DOMANDA...RISPOSTA: NOOOO...I PUNTI DEBOLI DEI SOPRAVVISSUTI SONO SPESSO PUNTI DI FORZA

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Despite their poor writing skills, these students are still in school in their third year. That’s evidence that poor writing skills are not the key barrier to success.
Note:AL CONTRARIO

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The least successful students are those who flunked out in their first and second years,
Note:I VERI BISOGNOSI...LA VERA MALATTIA DA CURARE

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solid math skills are absolutely necessary to survive the first two years,
Note:NEL CASO CONCRETO

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the British Royal Air Force adding armor to its World War II warplanes.
Note:STORIA RISAPUTA

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only in spots
Note:X NN APPESANTIRE

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the majority of the bullet holes were in a few particular locations
Note:DA UN ISPEZIONE AI SOPRAVVISSUTI!!!!!

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Abraham Wald
Note:L UOMO DELLA PROVVIDENZA

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It’s the locations with no visible bullet holes that need the armor—because
Note:SI ACCORSE CHE QUEI BUCHI...

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9 Good-Looking Teachers
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professors who are perceived as physically beautiful generally receive much higher ratings.
Note:GLI STUDENTI VALUTANO I PROF...SUPERFICIALI?

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you should have expected all along that the prettiest teachers would be among the best.
Note:IN REALTÀ È ACCURATA...MA XCHÈ?

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“fashion model”
Note:LAVORI DOVE LA BELLEZZA CONTA

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“movie star”
Note:ANCORA

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anything in sales or retailing.
Note:ALTRI

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You show me a lighthouse keeper with movie-star good looks, and I’ll show you (at least probably) a really really good lighthouse keeper—one
Note:IL BELLO CHE LAVORA DOVE LA BELLEZA NN CONTA È VERAMENTE APPASSIONATO

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evidence that attractive teachers really are more effective,
Note:INFATTO...ANCHE DA RICERCHE INDIPENDENTI

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You should expect more attractive teachers to do a better job even if students are completely blind to their physical beauty.
Note:CONXLUSIONE

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10 Hospital Patients
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80 patients being treated for cancer and 80 being treated for heart attacks.
Note:I RICOVERATI IN UN GIORNO MRDIO ALL OSPEDALE DI NOD

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it appear that the average Noddian is about equally likely to be struck by a heart attack as by cancer?
Note:DOMANDA RETORICA

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the fact that some hospital stays are longer than others.
Note:IL BUSILLIS

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I could just as easily (though far less interestingly) have compiled a collection of equally complicated and subtle puzzles that most people get right.
Note:MOLTI SBAGLIANO NEL RISPONDERE AL QUIZ MA IN QUIZ NN MENO COMPLICATI SE LA VAVANO.XCHÈ?

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11 Checking Cards
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You want to know whether every card with an A on one side has a 7 on the other. Which cards must you flip?
Note:2 CARTE COME NELLA FIGURA.....RISPOSTA DIFFICILE....LA PRIMA E LA QUARTA...VIENE DA PENSARE ALLA TERZA CHE IN REALTÀ È INDIFFERENTE AI NOSTRI FINI POTREBBE AVERE QUALSIASI LETTERA SUL DORSO...MENTRE SE LA QUARTA HA UNA A CONFUTA TUTTO...

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12 Barefoot Cheaters
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ALL CHILDREN MUST WEAR SHOES:
Note:ORDINE PERENTORIO

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To catch all the potential rule breakers, which black boxes must you peek behind?
Note:DOMANDA FACILE...IL BIMBO OSCURATO E IL PIEDE NUDO OSCURATO...OVVERO PRIMO E QUARTO

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13 Which Is Harder?
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problem 11 or problem 12?
Note:DEI DUE PRECEDENRI QUAL È IL PIÙ STICO

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Problems 11 and 12 are, in essence, exactly the same problem,

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only about 10 percent of people solve problem 11 correctly
Note:MA...COLPO DI SCENA!

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great many more solve problem 12 correctly.
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our critical faculties kick into high gear in social situations,
Note:CONCLUSIONE....RAGIONIAMO BENE IN UN CONTESTO E NN IN UN ALTRO....ANCHE SE CHIAMATI A FARE LO STESSO RAGIONAMENTO

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particularly when we’re on the lookout for cheaters.

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ESIGENZA

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a well-developed instinct to root out cheating,
Note:CIÒ CHE CI RENDE UMANI

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14 Gas Prices
Note:Ttttttttttttt LA FALLACIA DEL COSPIRAZIONISTA

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the price of gasoline rose so high that oil company profits actually increased. True or False: This is evidence that the oil companies collude
Note:IN SEGUITO A UN INTERRUZIONE DELLE FORNITURE

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The big hike in gas prices is evidence—in fact, it’s pretty much proof—that the oil companies don’t collude.
Note:AL CONTRARIO...RISPOSTA

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If it were this easy for the oil companies to raise their profits, then they wouldn’t have waited for a supply interruption.
Note:LA SPIEGA

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Gasoline customers kept right on buying a lot of gas after the price hike, so they must be quite price insensitive.
Note:PREZZI BASSI ANCHE CON DOMANDA RIGIDA!…IMPOSSIBILE SENZA IPER COMPETIZIONE

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15 The Gender Gap
Note:TtttttttttUNA PAGA DEL 23% IN MENO AUMENTEREBBE ENORMEMENTE IL VALORE DELLA AZIONI POICHÈ QUESTI È MOLTO PIÙ PICCOLO DEL MONTE SALARI (SU CUI SI RISPARMIEREBBE)...IMPOSSIBILE LASCIARE SUL MARCIAPIEDE TANTI SOLDI

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women are paid 77 cents for every dollar earned by equally skilled men.
Note:ALICE È DEPRESSA

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If it were true, he says, profit-maximizing firms would clamor to hire cheap women
Note:L ECONOMISTA BOB SI I DIGNA

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the people who run corporations are not always single-minded rational profit maximizers.
Note:MA ALICE SA COME VANNO QS COSE...È POSSIBILE DISCRIMINARE E SOPRAVVOVERE

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managers routinely overlook small profit opportunities but rarely pass up large ones.
Note:CARLITA È LA PIÙ SAGGIA...BISOGNA QUANTIFICARE

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Pure logic can’t settle this one.
Note:Ccccccccc

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the workforce is currently (to a rough but reasonable approximation) about 50 percent female.
Note:PEIMO DATO

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corporations pay out about ⅔ of their revenue in employee
Note:SECNDO DATO...IL RESTO VA AL CAPITALE

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we can assume that of every $300 that comes in, about $200 goes to the employees
Note:DI FATTO

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Instead of paying your workers $200, you’re now paying them 89.5 percent of that, or $179—a saving of $21.
Note:RISPARMIO

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a 42 percent increase.
Note:NEL GUADAGNO

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That’s huge.
Note:Cccccccc

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If Alice is right, corporate managers everywhere are seeing that opportunity and choosing not to grab it.
Note:STRANO

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what does account for gender gaps in wages.
Note:SCEGLIAMO UN ALTRA SPIEGA

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a conglomeration of a great many factors,
Note:RISPOSTA VCOMPLESSA

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differences in ability, differences in training, differences in interests, differences in wage-negotiation tactics, differences in career choices, differences in priorities, and, yes, discrimination.
Note:ELENCO

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The evidence, pro and con, could fill a book—a
NN PROSEGUIAMO QS DISCORSO