F prova cosmologica

Esistono due argomenti:

1) Kalam
2) Fine tuning

Kalam: 1) l'universo materiale ha un inizio, quindi 2) ha una causa immateriale.

Due argomenti per supportare l'inizio dell'universo.

1) modello big bang: il ns universo è in espansione e quindi il tempo ha un inizio (anche la realtà quantica non puo' essere eternamente stabile.
2) entropia: se l'universo fosse eterno sarebbe caotico

HL 2 Coming to Power

2 Coming to Power
Note:2@@@@@@@@@@@@

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Born in a remote part of Liberia’s interior and virtually illiterate,
Note:JOHN DOE....DITRATORE LIBERIANO

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moved out of the West African jungle in search of work. He headed to the capital city, Monrovia,
Note:ARRIVA

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As the president slept, he seized the day, bayoneted the president, threw his entrails to the dogs, and declared himself Liberia’s new president.
Note:SI ARRUOLÒ E DURANTE IL SUO SERVIZIO COLSE LA SUA OCCASIONE

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Doe had scaled the fence at the Executive Mansion, hoping to confront the president and find out why they had not been paid.
Note:XCHÈ ERA CAPITATO LÌ

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Tolbert’s True Whig Party, a political regime created by slaves repatriated from America in 1847.
Note:IL PREDECESSORE

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He immediately rounded up thirteen cabinet ministers, who were then publically executed on the beach
Note:TRATTFAMENTO DEGLI AVVERSARI

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Doe had no idea what a president was supposed to do and even less idea of how to govern a country.
Note:SAPEVA SOLO PRENDERE IL POTERE

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He increased the pay of army privates from $85 to $250 per month.
Note:PAGARE X LA LEALTÀ

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revenues from Firestone, which leased large tracts of land for rubber;
Note:LA FONTE DEL DENARO

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He was lazy, and spent his days hanging out with the wives of his presidential guards. The economy collapsed, foreign debt soared, and criminal enterprises became virtually the only successful
Note:NN SAPEVA GOVERNARE

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Little wonder that the people of Liberia ended up hating Doe.
Note:UNICA ATTIVITÀ IL RICICLAGGIO

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And yet, provided he knew where the money was and who needed paying off,
Note:GOOD MANTRA...IL SEGRETO DI OGNI DITTATORE

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Paths to Power with Few Essentials
Note:Tttttttttttttt

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First, he must remove the incumbent. Second, he needs to seize the apparatus of government. Third, he needs to form a coalition of supporters sufficient to sustain him as the new incumbent.
Note:LE TRE COSE CHE DEVE FARE UN DITTATORE

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The first, and easiest, is for the leader to die.
Note:TRE POSSIBILI RIMOZIONI....PRIMA

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a challenger can make an offer to the essential members of the incumbent’s coalition
Note:SECONDA

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current political system can be overwhelmed from the outside, whether by military defeat by a foreign power, or through revolution
Note:TERZO

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The most critical factor behind Mubarak’s defeat in February 2011 was the decision by Egypt’s top generals to allow demonstrators to take to the streets without fear of military suppression.
Note:LA LEALTÀ È DECISIVA

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revolutions occur when those who preserve the current system are sufficiently dissatisfied with their rewards
Note:SOLDI

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Speed Is Essential
Note:Tttttttttttt

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Once the old leader is gone, it is essential to seize the instruments of power, such as the treasury, as quickly as possible.
Note:IMPOSSESSARSI DELLA CASSA

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Samuel Doe ruled because his group had the guns. He did not need half the nation to support him.
Note:IL SUPPORTO...POCHI MA COESI

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Consider a room filled with 100 people. Anyone could take complete control if only she had five supporters with automatic weapons pointed at the rest. She would remain in power so long as the five gunmen continue to back her.
Note:L ANALOGIA

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grabbed the guns first.
Note:LA CENTRALITÀ DELLO SPEED

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There is no prize for coming in second.
Note:Cccccccccc

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Pay to Play
Note:Tttttttttttt

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Paying supporters, not good governance or representing the general will, is the essence of ruling. Buying loyalty
Note:CHI COMANDA

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After Doe took over the Liberian government, he greatly increased army salaries.
Note:ESEMPIO

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Allaying supporters’ fears of being abandoned is a key element of coming to power.
Note:LA MOSSA DECISIVA

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Mortality: The Best Opportunity for Power
Note:TTTttttttttttttt

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Dead leaders cannot deliver rewards to their coalition.
Note:PRIMO...NN FARSI AMMAZZARE....ESIBIRE SICUREZZA

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That’s a good reason to keep terminal illnesses secret
Note:ES

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Although the masses brought down the old regime in hopes of obtaining a more democratic government, Khomeini ensured that real power was retained by a small group of clerics.
Note:UN PICCOLO GRUPPO COESO

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The shah ran a brutal, oppressive government under which thousands disappeared. Imprisonment, torture, and death were commonplace.
Note:CHI SI ERA LIBERATO VOLEVA LA DEMOCRAZIA

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The army was no longer willing to fight to preserve the regime because they knew that the shah was dying.
Note:RUOLO DELLA MALATTIA

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Benigno Aquino Jr. was an outstanding man. At the age of eighteen he was awarded the Philippine Legion of Honor for his journalism during the Korean War.
Note:RISE OF DEMOCRACY NELLE FIIPPINE....UNA STORIA SIMILE

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In a dangerous move, he became an outspoken critic of President Ferdinand Marcos.
Note:L INIZIO DI TUTTO

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On the flight back to Manila he warned journalists that it might all be over in minutes. And it was. He was immediately taken from the plane and assassinated
Note:IL RIENTRO

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In late 1985 Ferdinand Marcos announced snap elections a year earlier than scheduled. Corazon Aquino stepped in as her late husband’s surrogate and ran as the main opposition candidate.
Note:LE FRODI E L INTERVENTO DI REAGAN E DEI CARDINALONI

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Marcos and his family sought sanctuary in the United States. They left the Philippines and settled in Hawaii but, as insiders and many others knew, Marcos would not live long. That, in fact, had been his problem all along.
Note:MA COSA C ERA DIETRO?

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Corazon Aquino had no experience in government. Yet she succeeded where her more accomplished husband had failed. She challenged Marcos at a time when his supporters knew his time was coming to an end.
Note:LA VITTORIA DELL IMBRANATA

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Laurent Kabila, once maligned by Che Guevara as lacking “revolutionary seriousness” and being “too addicted to alcohol and women,” took on the mighty Mobuto Sese Seko of Zaire and won.4 Kabila lacked much in talent, but his timing was excellent. Mobuto was dying of prostate cancer
Note:ALTRO ESEMPIO

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Health concerns for North Korea’s Kim Jong Il and Cuba’s Fidel Castro have engendered similarly intense political speculation.
Note:ALTRI ESEMPI

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Kim Jong Il promoted his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to a variety of posts, including the rank of four-star general, even though his son has no military experience. Fidel Castro likewise promoted his brother, Raul,
Note:SOCCORRE IL PARENTE

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Inheritance and the Problem of Relatives
Note:Tttttttttttt

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If an incumbent runs out of money he cannot continue to pay his supporters.
Note:NN CI SONO SOLO PROBLEMI DI SALUTE

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Succession became a battle of survival of the fittest to see which son would become the next sultan.
Note:PRESSO GLI OTTOMANI....LA LEGGE DEL FRATRICIDIO....IL PRIMO FRATELLO CHE METTE LE MANI SUL TESORO E PAGA L ESERCITO DIVENTA SULTANO

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The result could often be civil war,
Note:Cccccccccc

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Unsuccessful brothers were typically killed.
Note:Cccccccccccc

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all unsuccessful male heirs were strangled with a silk cord.
Note:MEMET ISTITUZIONALIZZA LA PRATICA

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Mehmet III allegedly killed nineteen brothers, two sons, and fifteen slaves who were pregnant by his own father,
Note:ESEMPIO

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this practice was replaced by the kinder, gentler practice of locking all male relatives in the Fourth Court of the Topkapi Palace—quite
Note:NEL 1600

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it is perhaps no wonder why Shakespeare’s Hamlet or Robert Graves’s Claudius chose to feign madness.
Note:VON PARENTI DEL GENERE

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Would-be autocrats must be prepared to kill all comers—even members of the immediate family.
Note:UNA COSA È CERTA

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Ottomans formalized this while the English merely relied on the tradition of doing in their rivals.
Note:VEDI LA SUCCESSIONE A RICCARDO...GIOVANNI E ARTURO SI FRONTEGGIARONO

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What did John do? Even after assuming the crown he continued to fear Arthur’s quest for power, a quest that grew more intense as the boy aged into his teenage years.
Note:ALL EPOCA ARTHUR ERA UN DODICENNE

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in 1203, John had Arthur taken prisoner and murdered.
Note:INFINE

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the nobles rose up against him, promulgating Magna Carta, twelve years later.
Note:PICCOLO INCONVENIENTE

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Essential supporters have a much greater chance of retaining their privileged position when power passes within a family,
Note:UN VANTAGGIO DELLA SUCCESSIONE

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Naturally, if you’re a young prince who hopes to be king, you’ll have to make sure to outlive your “supporters” first.
Note:I RE GIOVANI

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For instance, the first Roman emperor, Augustus, formally adopted his successor, Tiberius. Mob bosses often do the same. Carlo Gambino nominated “Big” Paul Castellano to succeed him
Note:IL SUCCESSORE NOMINATO X EVITARE FAIDE

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Papal Bull - ying for Power
Note:Ttttttttttttt

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Some of the greatest stories and movies of all time portray how the outcome of whole nations, peoples, and faiths come down to the actions of a single individual.
Note:DA FRODO A SKYWALKER

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Bishops were the arbiters of Christian practice and belief, but not until Damasus I, pope from 366 to 384, was the Bishop of Rome truly elevated above all other Roman Catholic bishops,
Note:IL PAPA NELLA CHIESA PRIMITIVA NN CONTAVA GRANCHÈ

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By the late 300s, the east had a seemingly insurmountable advantage in the long struggle between the eastern and western branches of Christianity. The apostles and, of course, Jesus himself, all came from the east.
Note:DAMASO...UN CASE STUDY INTERESSANTE

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apostles came from the east, but Peter and Paul were martyred in Rome and it was in Rome that they were buried.
Note:L IDEA DI DAMASUS

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Rome, then, must have a superior claim compared to the eastern Sees.
Note:Cccccccccc

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On February 28, 380, Emperor Theodosius declared that everyone must abide by the Christian principles as declared by “the Apostle Peter to the Romans, and now followed by Bishop Damasus and Peter of Alexandria.”
Note:L OPERA DI DAMASUS....PRIVILEGIARE IL CENTRO E NN LA PERIFERIA...CONVERTIRE I NOBILI PARTENDO DALLE LOORO MOGLI...

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his battle for power shifted Christianity away from its Eastern origins and set it on the path to becoming a Western faith.
Note:SVOLTA DI DAMASUS

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what constitutes doing the right thing must be understood from the perspective of a potential supporter; it may have nothing to do with what is best for a community or nation.
Note:RICORDA...È SEMPRE UN AFFARE X POCHI

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Seizing Power from the Bankrupt
Note:Tttttttttttttt

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If a ruler has run out of money with which to pay his supporters,
Note:ANCHE FARE IL GIUSTO PASSO NN SERVE A NIENTE SE...

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Financial crises are an opportune time to strike.
Note:RIVOLUZIONE...QUANDO

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Kerensky’s revolutionaries were able to storm the Winter Palace in February 1917 because the army did not stop them. And the army did not bother to stop them because the czar did not pay them enough.
Note:1917… ALTRO CHE IDEOLOGIA MARXISTA

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he foolishly cut the income from one of his major sources of revenue, the vodka tax,
Note:L ERRORE DELLO ZAR....MOSSA PROIBIZIONISTA

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He had the silly idea that a sober army would prove more effective
Note:PAZZA IDEA

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Nicholas, it seems, thought that a ban on vodka would improve the performance of Russia’s troops in World War I.
Note:Cccccccc

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His mistake was operating a democratic government, which necessitated a large coalition, and implementing an unpopular policy—continuing
Note:KERENTSKY

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The czar fell once there was no one to stop the revolution. Louis XVI suffered much the same fate in the French Revolution.
Note:LA LEZIONE...PAGARE BENE GLI ALLEATI

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Mugabe “succeeds” because he understands that it does not matter what happens to the people provided that he makes sure to pay the army.
Note:L IRRILEVANZA DI UNA POLITICA TERRIBILE

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Mugabe is certainly horrible for what he’s done to the people he rules, but he is a master of the rules to rule by.
Note:IL PIÙ GRANDE STATISTA DEL MONDO?

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Silence Is Golden
Note:Ttttttttttttttt

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The incumbent’s advantage in offering rewards disappears as soon as coalition members come to suspect their long run access to personal benefits will end.
Note:PREMESSA

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Houari Boumediène was able to seize the Algerian presidency from Ahmed Ben Bella in 1965 after Ben Bella foolishly opened his mouth.
Note:L ESEMPIO ILLUSTRATO

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On June 12, 1966, he announced that there would be a politburo meeting a week later and that the purpose of the meeting was to discuss three major issues: (1) Changes in the cabinet; (2) Changes in the army command; (3) The liquidation of the military opposition.
Note:L ERRORE FATALE DI BELLA

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There is never a point in showing your hand before you have to;
Note:Ccccccfffff

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Institutional Change
Note:Tttttttttttttt

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What politicians seek to avoid are any institutional changes that increase the number of people to whom they are beholden.
Note:IN POCHI È MEGLIO

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He sought to end Communist Party members’ access to special stores, privileged access to the best universities, and other benefits not shared by the working people of the Soviet Union. Sure, that was popular with the masses but the masses didn’t have much say in choosing who ran the Soviet Union—Party members did.
Note:L ERRORE DI YELTSIN...DA CUI SI SALVERÁ X UN SOFFIO

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By the late 1980s the Soviet economy had stagnated. This left the recently promoted Soviet leader, Gorbachev, with a serious dilemma. Unless he could somehow resuscitate the economy, he was liable to run out of money. As we have seen, this situation can get leaders into serious trouble. In order to get the economy moving so that there would continue to be enough money, Gorbachev needed to loosen control over the people, freeing their suppressed entrepreneurial potential.
Note:IL CROLLO DEL MURO....LE VERE CAUSE

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he could win over the apparatchiks by promoting greater budgetary autonomy for the Russian Republic within the Soviet structure. They could become richer and more powerful in Russia than they had been in the Soviet Union.
Note:QUELLO CHE CAPI BORIS Y

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Coming to Power in Democracy
Note:Tttttttttttttt

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Democratic Inheritance
Note:Ttttttttttttt

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Democrats, because they rely on a large coalition, cannot lavish great wealth on their supporters personally.
Note:IL PROB DE LEADER DEMOCRATICO

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democrats need to find effective public policies that their supporters like and reward their loyalty
Note:LO SCAMBIO DEMO

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this explains why dynastic rule is common even in democracies.
Note:MA I SONO ANCHE BENI PRIVATI

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31.2 percent of American female legislators (and 8.4 percent of men) had a close relative precede them in their political role.10 Nearly 20 percent of American presidents were close relatives
Note:L BÒ DYNASTIES

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Democracy Is an Arms Race for Good Ideas
Note:Ttttttttttt

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Competition in democracies is cerebral, not physical. Killing foes works for dictators,
Note:CERVELLO

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the corollary is that even good public policy does not buy much loyalty. Everyone consumes policy benefits whether they support the incumbent or not.
Note:COROLLARIO.....LE POLICY SI CONSUMANO X CONQUISTARE IL POTERE

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If a leader cleans up the environment or solves global warming then everyone is a winner,
Note:SE FAI BENE CONTA POCO QUANDO NN HAI IDEE X IL FUTURO

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past deeds don’t buy loyalty.
Note:Cccccccccc

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After six hard years of war, rationing, and sacrifice, these policies had little appeal. Atlee chose to promote the National Health Service and the creation of a welfare state
Note:CME IL GRANDE CHURCHILL VINCITORE DI HITLER XSE LE ELEZIONI

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He won the battle for good ideas.
Note:CccccccccccccÈ IL FUTURO CHE CONTA

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A Last Word on Coming to Power: The Ultimate Fate of Sergeant Doe
Note:Ttttttttttt

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With the end of the cold war, the United States no longer needed Doe’s assistance, and in 1989 the US government cut off his future aid. Rivals Charles Taylor and Prince Johnson, backed by the governments of Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire, saw their opportunity and launched an insurgency.
Note:LA FINE DI DOE

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Prince Johnson captured the president and videotaped his subsequent interrogation. The interrogators repeated the same questions over and over again before Johnson turned to cutting off Doe’s ear and eating it: “Where is the money? What is the bank account number?” Doe didn’t answer.

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To achieve power means recognizing the moment of opportunity, moving fast, and moving decisively to seize the day.
SOMMARIO

PERCEZIONE E REALTA'

PERCEZIONE E REALTA'

I sociologi sottolineano di continuo le credenze distorte del pubblico in tema di rischio e le sue paure ingiustificate, per esempio della criminalità.

Quel che trascurano, purtroppo, è che molte persone si sentono ancora estremamente ansiose anche dopo aver accettato i fatti. A nulla vale leggere statistiche.

Sono lieto di comunicare che esiste una cura psicologica alla percezione anomala del rischio, si chiama "terapia dell'esposizione".

La terapia implica un'esposizione deliberata e programmata a uno stimolo temuto fino a che l'intensità dell'angoscia non si allenta. E' la cura migliore ai problemi di ansia e panico.

Hai paura dei cani? Chiuditi in una stanza con i cani. Hai paura dell'ascensore? Vai su e giù ripetutamente con l'ascensore. Sei sempre in apprensione per il tuo bambino? Invitalo a fare il giro dell'isolato da solo. Hai paura della violenza? Guarda film violenti. Tuo figlio ha paura dell'acqua? Sbattilo in acqua dal pattino al largo. Temi la criminalità? Passeggia di notte nelle zone più malfamate della tua città. Hai pregiudizi sugli zingari? Attraversa il loro campo fermandoti a parlare con loro...

Che sia il modo più efficace per curare le proprie paure sembra assodato. Il problema è un altro: perché gli psicoterapeuti la prescrivono così raramente?

https://www.amazon.com/Handbook-Exposure-Therapies-David-Richard/dp/0125874219/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257910490&sr=1-1

http://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/11/exposure_therap.html

SALARIO MINIMO E IMMIGRAZIONE

https://feedly.com/i/entry/Od/Z0OrlTBzSrJtcae1t5qtueOtvOco3UFNx6gD9Pd4=_16af551e133:e042cd:5aad3566

Riccardo Mariani

1 min · 

ScienceDirect

 · 

E chi l'ha detto che il M5S è lassista sull'immigrazione? Il miglior modo per combatterla è proprio quel salario minimo di cui sono tanto appassionati".

SCIENCEDIRECT.COM

Recent immigrants as labor market arbitrageurs: Evidence from the minimum wage

This paper investigates the local labor supply effects of changes to the minimum wage by examining the response of low-skilled immigrants’ location de…

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  Riccardo Mariani https://jorgeperezperez.com/.../2017-10-10-city-minimum...

  

  JORGEPEREZPEREZ.COM

  City Minimum Wages (Job Market Paper)

  City Minimum Wages (Job Market Paper)

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  Riccardo Marianihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/.../pii/S0166046216301156

  

  SCIENCEDIRECT.COM

  Cross-state differences in the minimum wage and out-of-state commuting by…

  Cross-state differences in the minimum wage and out-of-state commuting by low-wage workers

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