Visualizzazione post con etichetta charles kenny getting better. Mostra tutti i post
Visualizzazione post con etichetta charles kenny getting better. Mostra tutti i post

venerdì 30 agosto 2019

hl The Danger of Climate Doomsayers by Bj�rn Lomborg - Project Syndicate BJORN LOMBORG

The Danger of Climate Doomsayers by Bj�rn Lomborg - Project Syndicate
BJORN LOMBORG
Citation (APA): LOMBORG, B. (2019). The Danger of Climate Doomsayers by Bj�rn Lomborg - Project Syndicate [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com

Parte introduttiva
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 2
The Danger of Climate Doomsayers by Bjørn Lomborg - Project Syndicate By BJORN LOMBORG
Nota - Posizione 3
@@@@@@@
Nota - Posizione 3
@@@@@@@
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 6
make sure that the cure isn’t more painful than the disease.
Nota - Posizione 7
IL PROBLEMA
Nota - Posizione 7
IL PROBLEMA
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 12
global life expectancy has more than doubled since 1900
Nota - Posizione 13
PRIMO FATTORE
Nota - Posizione 13
PRIMO FATTORE
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 13
health inequality has declined
Nota - Posizione 13
2
Nota - Posizione 13
2
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 14
world is more literate,
Nota - Posizione 14
3
Nota - Posizione 14
3
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 14
child labor is decreasing,
Nota - Posizione 15
4
Nota - Posizione 15
4
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 15
we are living in one of the most peaceful times
Nota - Posizione 15
5
Nota - Posizione 15
5
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 16
people are better off economically.
Nota - Posizione 16
6
Nota - Posizione 16
6
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 17
massive reductions in poverty.
Nota - Posizione 17
Ccccccc
Nota - Posizione 17
Ccccccc
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 17
In 1990, nearly four in ten of the world’s people were poor;
Nota - Posizione 18
Cccccc
Nota - Posizione 18
Cccccc
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 19
less than one in ten
Nota - Posizione 19
Ccccccc
Nota - Posizione 19
Ccccccc
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 22
the risk of death from air pollution– by far the biggest environmental killer– has declined substantially;
Nota - Posizione 23
7
Nota - Posizione 23
7
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 24
rich countries are increasingly preserving forests and reforesting, thanks to higher agricultural yields
Nota - Posizione 25
8
Nota - Posizione 25
8
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 27
We are told that global warming will cause extreme weather and climate chaos
Nota - Posizione 28
8
Nota - Posizione 28
8
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 33
hurricanes are constantly linked to global warming.
Nota - Posizione 34
Cccccccc
Nota - Posizione 34
Cccccccc
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 37
there have been “no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century.”
Nota - Posizione 37
IPCC
Nota - Posizione 37
IPCC
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 38
“the historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.”
Nota - Posizione 39
NASA
Nota - Posizione 39
NASA
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 40
prosperity is likely to increase dramatically over the coming decades, making us more resilient to such events.
Nota - Posizione 41
CONTRO GLI URAGANI
Nota - Posizione 41
CONTRO GLI URAGANI
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 43
the overall impact of global warming by the 2070s will be equivalent to a 0.2-2% loss in average income.
Nota - Posizione 44
9...POCA ROBA
Nota - Posizione 44
9...POCA ROBA
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 45
the same as a single economic recession,
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 47
slowing the growth that has lifted billions out of poverty and transformed the planet.
Nota - Posizione 47
IL RISCHIO DI ELIMINARE CO2
Nota - Posizione 47
IL RISCHIO DI ELIMINARE CO2
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 60
A commensurate response would be to invest much more in researching and developing cheaper carbon-free energy sources that can eventually outcompete fossil fuels.
Nota - Posizione 61
SOLUZIONI
Nota - Posizione 61
SOLUZIONI

martedì 6 novembre 2018

COSE IMPARATE OGGI: FORSE E' INIZIATO IL SECOLO D'ORO

COSE IMPARATE OGGI: FORSE E' INIZIATO IL SECOLO D'ORO
Misurata in dollari statunitensi, la ricchezza globale totale è passata daI 117 trilioni di dollari nel 2000 ai 317 trilioni a metà del 2018. Un aumento spettacolare di 200 miliardi di dollari, pari a circa 2,5 volte il PIL mondiale.
Informazioni su questo sito web
CONVERSABLEECONOMIST.BLOGSPOT.COM
Wealth is not income. Income is the inflow measured over a period of time, like a pay period or a calendar year. Wealth is the accumulation ...

mercoledì 5 luglio 2017

Malthus sconfitto dalla globalizzazione

Malthus sconfitto dalla globalizzazione

THE GOOD NEWS The End of the Malthusian Trap – Getting Better: Why Global Development Is Succeeding–And How We Can Improve the World Even More by Charles Kenny
***
The Irish potato famine occurred at a time when Ireland was actually exporting food—again, the problem was absolute poverty, not absolute lack of resources. Between 1979 and 1984, Ethiopia saw food production decline a modest 12 percent, while Zimbabwe saw food production decline by as much as 38 percent. Yet it was Ethiopia that saw massive famine while Zimbabwe, which had put in place extensive prevention programs under the recently elected Robert Mugabe, did not.
Note:POVERTA’ ASSOLUTA NON E’ MANCANZA DI RISORSE
Since the turn of the nineteenth century, the most popular vision of global dystopia has been fueled by the Reverend Robert Malthus’s An Essay on the Principle of Population. A people incapable of stemming its urge to breed, Malthus argued, overwhelms a country’s resources to the point that the only check on population growth is near-starvation. In the twentieth century, the vision was globalized in works including Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb, which warned, “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.”
Note:PESSIMISTI: MALTHUS E EHRLICH
recolonization. Related to this, it is often suggested that the industrialized world’s escape from Malthusian stagnation to modern economic growth contains important lessons for the developing world of today.
Note:RIVOLUZIONE INDUSTRIALE PUNTO DI SVOLTA
MALTHUS’S INSIGHT: THE MASSES ARE SEX-OBSESSED BREEDING MACHINES
“the constant tendency in all animated life to increase beyond the nourishment prepared for it,”
Note:LA PREOCCUPAZIONE DI MALTHUS
The simplest version of the Malthusian model suggested that the birthrate in a country was set by customs regulating fertility, the death rate by income, and income by the size of the population. Lower incomes led to a higher death rate, declining populations led to higher incomes.
Note:IL CICLO MALTHUSIANO
the only hope Malthus saw for raising general standards of living was to change fertility behavior.
Note:LA SPERANZA DI MALTHUS: CONTROLLO DELLE NASCITE
HISTORICAL EVIDENCE FOR MALTHUSIAN TRAPS
In the UK, population size and wages shared a close relationship until around the 1800s. Wages in Britain (and across Western Europe) rose dramatically after the Black Death killed a large part of the workforce in the fourteenth century and then declined as populations recovered. Indeed, from 1200 to 1650 there was seemingly complete stagnation of the production technology of the British economy; GDP changed hardly at all, and any rise in population was offset by a proportionate fall in income per capita. More people working the same land made each individual worker less productive, as suggested by Malthus.2 From 1650 until the nineteenth century, innovation in the UK did allow for a slow expansion in output, but not at a fast enough rate to outpace population growth, so GDP per capita remained stagnant. Only with the Industrial Revolution did the link between population and wages break down,
Note:EVIDENZA MALTHUSIANA. E ROTTURA CON LA RIVOLUZIONE INDUSTRIALE
THE WORLDWIDE ESCAPE FROM LIMITS TO OUTPUT
Only with the advent of the nineteenth century do we see the spread of sustained GDP growth above 1 percent as the Industrial Revolution took hold. The nineteenth century brought considerable diversity in GDP performance, with some regions including Asia and Africa seeing very sluggish growth while others (including Europe) took off with growth rates climbing above 3 percent. Conversely, the twentieth century has seen rapid GDP growth everywhere. And following World War II, developing countries saw particularly impressive GDP performance, with Asia leading the way.
Note:LA ROTTURA CON MALTHUS
More recently, between 1960 and 2000, among the 102 countries for which the World Bank has data, only the Democratic Republic of the Congo saw negative GDP growth rates.
Note:DAL 1960
The upshot of the story is that Malthus, at least for the period since the Industrial Revolution, was wrong. Not just wrong about Britain, but wrong about everywhere. Countries rich and poor alike are seeing output growth.
Note:SINTESI
In the second half of the twentieth century, global GDP increased almost seven-fold, agricultural output approximately tripled, and population only a little more than doubled. Global cropland per capita has approximately halved since the 1950s, while daily food supplies per capita have increased by around a quarter. And worldwide, there are now as many people overweight as malnourished (around 1 billion).
Note:XX SECOLO, SECOLO DI PROSPERITA’
THE TRAP FALLS APART
Looking across African countries suggests that there is no significant positive link from GDP per capita growth to subsequent population growth. And countries where incomes rise fast don’t see life expectancy increase much more rapidly than countries where income has increased more slowly
Note:POPOLAZIONE-REDDITO: ALTRO LEGAME CONFUTATO
NEO-MALTHUSIANISM
neo-Malthusian versions involve civilizations relying on unsustainable practices to promote growth. These practices lead, at some point, to environmental overload and social catastrophe.
Note:NEOMALTHUSIANI E SOSTENIBILITÀ
Consider the rise and decline of the Mayan civilization between 250 and 1000 A.D., discussed at great length by Jared Diamond in his book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed… In the case of Copan, to grow enough food, Mayan farmers cut down forests and cultivated land on the steep hills around the city, which rapidly eroded, blanketing the valley with less fertile soil runoff. Skeletal remains suggest the average health of an inhabitant of Copan began to fall as this occurred—there
Note:JARED DIAMOND SUI MAYA
It is true that the modern global economy, 24 times its size a century ago and around 390 times as large as it was a millennium ago, is using natural resources at a phenomenal rate. Global copper output increased 23 times between 1900 and 2000. Output of aluminum increased 10,760-fold. Oil production increased about 380-fold… Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased from 295 parts per million in 1900 to 381 parts per million in 2005. Concentrations of methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, are increasing at the rate of 1 percent per year….
Note:TURBOECONOMIA E RISORSE NATURALI
Technological change and market forces may reduce the demand for, or reduce the disruption caused by, resource depletion. The operation of such processes in the past is what has given the lie to earlier predictions of imminent global environmental and economic collapse. For example, in 1980 economist Julian Simon challenged Paul Ehrlich to a bet. Ehrlich—author of The Population Bomb and an environmental millenarian—argued that increasing populations in a world of finite resources would lead inevitably to scarcity and so to price increases. Simon offered Ehrlich a long list of raw materials, any time range longer than a year, and a bet that those commodities would be cheaper in the future than they were in 1980. Ehrlich chose chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten, and a time frame of ten years. In 1990, all five had declined in price, and Ehrlich paid up,
Note:SIMON (LA BESTIA NERA DEI MALTHUSIANI) E L’INNOVAZIONE
Production and consumption, rather than population, are the central concerns.
Note:PRODUZIONE E POPOLAZIONE
INNOVATION AND UNCERTAINTY
Rapid technological advance and diffusion are key to the global escape from the Malthusian trap. Technology has allowed massively increasing global agricultural production, and it has also allowed a growing percentage of economic output (even in the poorest countries) to come from manufacturing and services, providing other sources of wealth than farming.
Note:TECNOLOGIA E FUGA DA MALTHUS
Another set of technologies that have spread are a range of simple health practices that have played a considerable role in reducing mortality, as we will see, and this reduced mortality has been a spur to smaller family size worldwide.
Note:SANITÀ E TACNOLOGIA
Africa is mired in income poverty not by the laws of nature but (if there is any simple explanation) by its institutional history.
Note:LA VIA ISTITUZIONALE
We may not know the secret to rapid income growth for poor countries in Africa or elsewhere, but we do know that the beliefs of a long-dead English parson hold little relevance. While populations have grown worldwide, the threats of both starvation and ill health have receded. The next chapter discusses evidence regarding improvements in the global quality of life in greater detail.
Note:MALTHUS HA PERSO
The Great Convergence in Quality of Life
Henry VIII, sexual carnivore and king of England for most of the first half of the sixteenth century, died at the age of fifty-five—possibly of syphilis, probably of an untreated case of type 2 diabetes. At about the same time in China, the Jiajing Emperor died of mercury poisoning at age fifty-nine, after a reign of forty-five years. Fast-forward to the start of the twentieth century. Queen Victoria died as the result of a cerebral hemorrhage in 1901 at age eighty-one—after the longest reign of any woman in history. Meanwhile, in China, the Tongzhi Emperor was born and died within Victoria’s reign—he passed away aged eighteen, of smallpox. Vaccination against the disease had been made compulsory in the UK twenty-two years earlier. Moving to the start of the twenty-first century, we find Queen Elizabeth still hale and hearty at eighty-four. So is former Chinese premier Jiang Zemin, who is the same age.
Note:LA QUALITA’ DELLA VITA DI UN RE DEL PASSATO
The discovery and exploitation of a range of health technologies, combined with improved nutrition, eventually drove a wedge between European life expectancy and that in the European empires in the nineteenth century. But the worldwide spread of such technologies and of nutrition has seen the global gap in health outcomes shrinking again over the past fifty years. A similar story of growing global inequality followed by convergence in the recent past applies not just to health but also to education, rights, and infrastructure access.
BALZO IN AVANTI E CONVERGENZA: SIAMO TUTTI DEI RE

martedì 14 luglio 2015

Getting Better: Why Global Development Is Succeeding--And How We Can Improve the World Even More di Charles Kenny


Il punto sul mondo di Charles Kenny
  • La cattiva notizia: le diseguaglianze abbondano (specie all'interno degli stati).
  • La peggiore notizia: non esiste una ricetta magica per lo sviluppo. Si puo' indirizzare verso un' economia libera ma culture e razze differenti reagiscono in modo differente. Il contatto ravvicinato con chi è vicino alla "frontiera tecnologica" serve molto, il che fa capire l'utilità dell'immigrazione.
  • Una buona notizia: in molti escono dalla povertà.
  • La migliore notizia: i tenori di vita convergono e raggiungere standard ottimi costa sempre meno.
continua