spiegare e prevedere - modelli vs filosofia - il teismo SPIEGA meglio ma non prevede meglio

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INVERSIONE ESPLICAIVA

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cos'è una spiegazione

 Supponiamo che tu sappia solo che esiste una fabbrica di cubi che produce cubi i cui lati sono compresi tra 0 e 2 pollici. Detto questo, qual è la probabilità che un cubo uscito dalla fabbrica abbia un lato compreso tra 0 e 1 pollice? Applicando il PoI, la risposta sembra essere 1/2.

B. Supponiamo che tu sappia solo che esiste una fabbrica di cubi che produce cubi i cui volumi sono compresi tra 0 e 8 pollici cubi. Qual è la probabilità che un cubo proveniente dalla fabbrica abbia un volume compreso tra 0 e 1 pollice cubo? Applicando il PoI, la risposta sembra essere 1/8. 

Questa è la mia idea: se hai più descrizioni del problema, vuoi selezionare la descrizione di base più esplicativa, la descrizione in termini di proprietà che spiegherebbero le altre proprietà. 

Considera qui la basicità esplicativa come una caratteristica metafisica (e non epistemologica). Quindi ciò che conta è quale insieme di fatti fonda gli altri fatti sulla realtà, non quale insieme di fatti ti permette di conoscere, comprendere o descrivere gli altri fatti. Quindi la priorità causale è importante; la priorità di definizione non ha importanza (non importa se spiegheresti il ​​concetto di X in termini del concetto di Y, ma importa se X causerebbe Y). 

Nel caso del cubo, il numero di molecole in un cubo ne determina la dimensione (dato il materiale di cui è fatto) (includendo sia la sua larghezza che il suo volume). Il numero di molecola è (per oggetti di dimensioni normali, quasi esattamente) grandezza al volume del cubo. Quindi la soluzione 1/8 è la soluzione corretta. D'altro canto, se adotto un'ottica "geometrica" ​​sembra più plausibile adottare il lato come unità esplicativa per il volume, rovesciando così le conclusioni.

per approfondire il pol vedi huemer paradossi

HL CHAPTER 4 Explanations

CHAPTER 4 Explanations
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1 Ups and Downs
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Why do people stand still on escalators but not on stairs?
Note:I PUZ LE SCONCERTANTE

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What about stopping for, say, a one-minute rest?
Note:RIPOSINO....HA SENSO OVUNQUE

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the sort of people who choose the escalator are, on average, less physically fit—and
Note:PRIMA POSSIBILE RISPOSTA

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2 Ups and Downs Again
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Should you take your rest on the escalator or on the staircase?
Note:UNA VECCHIA QUESTIONE

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any question about human behavior can be settled with an appeal to cost-benefit analysis.
Note:L APPROCCIO DELL ECONOMISTA

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the cost of taking a step is that you expend a certain amount of energy.
Note:COSTO

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the same on the escalator as it is on the stairs.
Note:SEMBRA

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closer to your goal.
Note:IL BENEFICIO

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benefits on the stairs are exactly the same as the costs and benefits on the escalator.
Note:ALL ABBARENZA

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a person on an escalator is exactly as likely to be walking as a person on the stairs.
Note:ERGO

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sometimes the obvious is the enemy of the true. It
Note:LA MORALE

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the sun rises and sets every day because the sun orbits the earth.
Note:OVVIO ALL INESPERTO

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3 Politico Economy
Note:tttttttttttttrXCHÈ I MINATORI PESANO SULLA POLITICA ANCHE SE SONO POCHI MENTRE GLI ADDETTI AL FAST FOOD NO?

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Some pinned it on labor organizing, others on racism (coal miners are more likely than fast food clerks to be Caucasian), others on electoral politics or political corruption.
Note:SOLITE RISPOSTE

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it’s pretty hard to open a new coal mine and pretty easy to open a new fast food
Note:RISPOSTA

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This gives coal companies a good reason to lobby for political favors

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It also gives restaurant owners almost no incentive to lobby for political favors.
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If the government gives each fast food joint a $50 tax break, new fast food joints crop up, the price of fast food gets bid down, profits fall, and the process continues until profits fall by about $50.
Note:DETTO PAPALE PAPALE

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why farmers are showered with subsidies while motels fail all the time
Note:STESSA LOGICA

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4 An Amazing Deal?
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The ancient Greeks lived, on average, about 35 years, but many lived past 90 and a few (like the philosopher Gorgias) made it to about 108. Modern Americans and Europeans live, on average, about 80 years, but many live past 90 and occasionally someone makes it to 108.
Note:IL VERO CONTRIBUTO È STATO NELLA MORTALITÀ INFANTILE

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5 The Limits of Medicine
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When they identified a pin that was perfectly workable on every car in the junkyard, Ford instructed his engineers to conserve resources by cutting back on the quality of that overly durable pin.
Note:LA LEGGENDA DI FORD AL CIMITERO DELLE AUTO....IL TAGLIO AGLI STABILIMENTI CHE PRODUCEVANO I PEZZI PIÙ DURATURI

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If the engine won’t last past 100,000 miles, you don’t need a transmission that will last for 500,000.
Note:LOGICA

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If the lungs can’t make it past 100, it would be pointless to have a stomach, a pancreas, or a liver that can make it to 120.
Note:PER QS LA MEDICINA ALZA LA VITA MEDIA MA NN LA VITA MASSIMA

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Because the human body tends to break down all at once, it’s almost impossible to extend its lifespan. If your body contains 100 crucial organs, and if 98 spectacular medical breakthroughs render 98 of those organs impervious to disease, those breakthroughs will save a lot of lives (in cases where an organ would have broken down before it was supposed to) without having any appreciable effect on maximum lifespans.
Note:QUINDI...LA NATURA È UNA BUONA ECONOMISTA...X QS È DIFFICILE VIVERE A LUNGO

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broke down “all at once and nothing first, / Just as bubbles do when they burst.”
Note:DETO POETICAMENTE

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following a divorce, women’s living standards tend to fall and men’s living standards tend to rise.
Note:UN TEMPO

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marriage is unfair to men.
Note:IN GENERE SI DICE CHE IL DIVORZIO DANNEGGIA LA DONNA MA ALTRE CO NSIDERAZIONI POSSONO ESSERE PRESE

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men, much more than women, are willing to pay for the privilege of being married. They’re getting something they value, and they’re paying for it. Nothing unfair in that.
Note:EPPURE

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not all divorces are voluntary on the woman’s part.
Note:D ALTRA PARTE

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men prefer staying married and women prefer to divorce.
Note:UNA COSA È CERTA...NEI CASI LIMITE

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marriage is on average better for men than it is for women.
Note:NE DEDUCO

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6 Love and Marriage
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Why are men, more than women, willing to pay to stay married?
Note:IL QUIZ RESALE

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the longer you spend searching for something—be it a car, a house, or a life partner—the happier you’re going to be with the one you end up with. So—again, with myriad exceptions—a woman’s optimal strategy is to settle for an imperfect mate and then try to change him.
Note:IL MASCHIO HA PIÙ TEMPO X SCEGLIERE...QUINDI SCEGLIE MEGLIO

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there’s a biological clock,
Note:FATTORE CHIAVE

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7 TV Shopping
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Why doesn’t Sony want its TVs sold at a discount?
Note:INUTILE CERCARE UN SONY D OCCASIONE

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Sony doesn’t care about the retail price of its TVs; it cares about the wholesale price—and

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IN TEORIA DOVREBBE DISINTERESSARS

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you’ll walk into Best Buy, latch onto a salesperson, ask questions for an hour,
Note:MA I NEGOZI USATI COME PUBBLICITÀ CHIUDEREBBERO SE POI LA GENTE GUARDA E COMPRA SU INTERNET...QUINDI

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Best Buy will soon enough get tired of this and either stop carrying Sonys
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for well over a millennium prior to the settlement of Woodbine, Jews had not been farmers—not in Palestine, not in the Muslim empire, not in western Europe,
Note:EBREI E AGRICOLTURA

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Even in the modern state of Israel, where agriculture has been an important component of the economy, it’s been a peculiarly capital-intensive form of agriculture,
Note:ISRAELE

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8 Why Don’t Jews Farm?
Note:TtttttttttPUZZLE

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the obvious guess is to see this as a side effect of persecution or discrimination.
Note:LO RISPOSTA OVVIA

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Maristella Botticini (of Boston University and the University of Torino) and Zvi Eckstein (of Tel Aviv University and the University of Minnesota)—have
Note:I DUE INNOVATORI

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transition to urban occupations and urban living occurred long before
Note:FENOMENO PRECEDENTE LE DISCRIMINAZIONI

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a prohibition on land ownership is not a prohibition on farming—other
Note:INOLTRE

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Samaritans)
Note:RESTRIZIONI SIMILI...HANNO LAVORATO X ALTRI

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an internal attempt to forge and maintain a unique group identity.
Note:TESI DI KUZNETS SULL URBANIZZAZIINE DEGLI EBREI

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Samaritans and Christians maintained unique group identities without leaving the land.
Note:CONTROESEMPIO

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Amish
Note:ALTRO CONTROESEMPIO

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skilled urban jobs have always paid better than farming,
Note:ASSUNTO

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But those jobs require literacy, which requires education—and
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education was so expensive that it proved a poor investment
Note:UN TEMPO

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Jewish religion, unique among religions of the early Middle Ages, imposed an obligation to be literate.
Note:RELIGIONE

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read the Torah four times a week
Note:OBBLIGHI

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to be a good Jewish parent you had to educate your children so that they could do the same.
Note:QUINDI

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Jews were uniquely qualified to enter higher-paying urban occupations.
Note:QUINDI

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Only many centuries later did education start to make sense economically,
Note:LA CONVENIENZA DELLA SCUOLA

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well established in banking, trade, and so forth.
Note:GLI EBREI SOVRARAPPRESENTATI

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The second effect of the literacy obligation was to drive a lot of Jews away from their religion.
Note:EFFETTO COLATERALE

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while the world population increased from 50 million in the sixth century to 285 million in the eighteenth, the population of Jews remained almost fixed
Note:EVIDENZA INDIRETTA...DEMOGRAFIA

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a lot of Jews were becoming Christians and Muslims.
Note:PERCHÈ QUESTA FISSITÀ?

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The result: Over time, you’re left with a population of people who enjoy education, are required by their religion to be educated, and are particularly attached to their religion.
Note:CHI RESTA? CHI HA LA PASSIONE X EDUCARE

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a black motorist was three times as likely as a white motorist to be stopped and searched for drugs.
Note:ALTRO PROBLEMA...MARYLAND

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Black motorists were found to be carrying drugs at pretty much exactly the same rate as whites.
Note:ALTRO FATTO

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clear-cut evidence of racial discrimination.
Note:X MOLTI

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9 What Do Police Officers Want?
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blacks carry drugs just as frequently as whites do even though they are three times as likely to get caught.
Note:L OSSERVAZIONE CHIAVE

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So when the police are out to maximize arrests, the incentive structure leads blacks and whites to carry drugs in equal proportions,
Note:L OBBIETTIVO DELLA POLIZIA

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cracking down on blacks beyond the point where it serves any objective purpose
Note:COSA SIGNIFICA ESSERE RAZZISTI?

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if you want to maximize deterrence, you’ll concentrate more on stopping whites, because there are more whites in the population
Note:OBBIETTIVO DETERRENZA

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How should you feel about what the police are doing?
Note:PASSIAMO AI SENTIMENTI

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If you’re a committed drug warrior, you’ll be rooting for maximum deterrence,
Note:CHI LOTTA CONTRO LA DROGA

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the only person who might opt for the existing policy is a police officer angling for a promotion.
Note:CHI OPTA X MAX ARRESTI?

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10 Why Aren’t All Buildings the Same Height?
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Presumably the optimal height of an office building depends on things like land prices,
Note:PUNTO DI PARTENZA

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You could try making the same argument with houses: instead of my 1-story house and my neighbor’s 3-story house, we could have two 2-story houses, and my neighbor could own my top floor.
Note:CONSIDERATO CHE OGNI PIANO AUMENTA IL COSTO IN PROP ALL ALTEZZA...NN SI CAPISCE XCHÈ NN SI CONVERGA SULLA STESSA ALTEZZA

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this explanation seems to fall short when it comes to the coexistence of 40- and 60-story buildings.
Note:LA VOGLIA DI ESCLUSIVA NN SPIEGA CERTE DIFFERENZE

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Email me if you think you can help.
Note:IL PROB RESTA IRRISOLTO

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a step on the escalator has a hidden additional cost: For every step you take on the escalator, you eventually get off the escalator a little sooner. That means you’re throwing away the tail end of a free ride.
Note:SOLUZIONE SCALE MOBILI

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it’s perfectly rational to take fewer steps in a place where steps are costlier.
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11 Sprinting Uphill
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You travel from floor 1 to floor 2 by escalator and from floor 2 to floor 3 by stairs.
Note:UN CASO

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Should you make your sprint on the stairs or on the escalator?
Note:DOVE CONVIENE ACCELLERARE?

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sprinting on the escalator has one additional effect: it gets you off the escalator sooner
Note:COME PRIMA

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Therefore it’s a mistake to choose the escalator.
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Often we instinctively get things right without being conscious of why—but
LA MORALE