https://www.facebook.com/riccardo.mariani.585/posts/pfbid033vUMryS6HNaHrLDu3X7qfRvKDCHzF648zScotxiytXpkiWj2fiHWmCH4QhCjmNYPl?__cft__[0]=AZU_X86xI58B_U_eFH20UEn1ctv7VmR0HRiCpqB_3uxlsxBQEHme91RP0wQlVGgQPjPzFv5SPxX007GAPQP4z1bf5mt7MnwdiqvHJL019VYgGTbnBznQcnBfi0P5qhefTzYPbc3vqSM3nbFN8puO-840yQQKM9M28Rfmm2Ha1tCr2A&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R
Visualizzazione post con etichetta prediction market. Mostra tutti i post
Visualizzazione post con etichetta prediction market. Mostra tutti i post
venerdì 30 agosto 2024
domenica 19 maggio 2024
c'è poca domanda naturale per i contratti dei mercati di previsione, come osserviamo nella pratica. Riteniamo che si possano classificare le persone che fanno trading sui mercati in tre gruppi, ognuno dei quali è ampiamente disinteressato ai mercati di previsione.
Risparmiatori: che entrano nei mercati per costruire ricchezza. I mercati di previsione non sono uno strumento di risparmio naturale. Non attirano denaro da pensioni, 401(k), depositi bancari o conti di intermediazione.
Giocatori d'azzardo: che entrano nei mercati per provare emozioni. I mercati di previsione non sono uno strumento naturale di gioco d'azzardo, a causa di vari fattori, tra cui gli orizzonti temporali lunghi e gli argomenti spesso esoterici. Raramente attirano scommettitori sportivi, day trader o utenti di r/WallStreetBets.
Sharps: che entrano nei mercati per trarre profitto da un'analisi superiore. Senza i risparmiatori o gli scommettitori, gli sharps che potrebbero entrare nel mercato per trarre profitto da un'analisi superiore non sono interessati a partecipare.I mercati di previsione, a differenza della maggior parte dei mercati degli asset, sono a somma zero - in realtà sono a somma negativa, una volta considerate le commissioni della piattaforma.Ecco perché le persone responsabili hanno la loro pensione in azioni e obbligazioni, piuttosto che in un portafoglio diversificato di scommesse sportive.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/05/why-prediction-markets-are-not-popular.html?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-prediction-markets-are-not-popular
sabato 16 novembre 2019
INTERROGARE L'ORACOLO
https://feedly.com/i/entry/pCjzw1s9uw4o7o2a6k88mWl61VH8mv6Frk5BTARJuI0=_16e702f89dd:33443f5:49b12733
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/01/surprising-popularity.html
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/01/surprising-popularity.html
INTERROGARE L'ORACOLO
Nel 1907 Francis Galton (foto) scoprì la "saggezza della folla", un oracolo con proprietà divinatorie portentose che potremmo sfruttare per scoprire tante cose interessanti, tipo se Dio esiste, oppure se l'aborto è un atto eticamente lecito, oppure ancora per scovare i marziani nell'universo. Purtroppo non sappiamo ancora interrogarlo a dovere, di solito lo facciamo decidendo di mettere ai voti una questione ma la cosa non funziona poiché - votando - la gente è più interessata ad associarsi in "partiti" ideologici con altre persone che a scoprire la verità. Sostituire il voto con le scommesse (mercato) è utile ma solo per un numero limitato di questioni, quelle in cui a posteriori è possibile accertare i vincitori: se faccio scommettere su Dio, per esempio, come posso a posteriori accertare il vincitore e compensarlo?
Un metodo che rimedia in parte a questi difetti in realtà esiste e va sotto il nome di "popolarità a sorpresa". A ciascuno dei componenti della "folla" vengono chieste due cose: 1) di votare su una questione, 2) di prevedere come voteranno gli altri. Alla fine, l'opzione scelta con una "frequenza sorprendente" rispetto alle previsioni fatte sarà considerata la più vicina alla verità.
Il meccanismo ha due pregi: 1) si puo' incentivare, ovvero si puo' pagare un premio a chi fa previsioni azzeccate, 2) si applica anche a questioni la cui verità non è accertabile a posteriori.
giovedì 22 agosto 2019
giovedì 27 giugno 2019
IL PROBLEMA DELL’AMBIENTALISTA SCETTICO E’ CHE NON SCOMMETTE SULLE SUE CREDENZE
IL PROBLEMA DELL’AMBIENTALISTA SCETTICO E’ CHE NON SCOMMETTE SULLE SUE CREDENZE
Il mercato borsistico è sostanzialmente un mercato previsionale sui valori delle attività, quindi se tali valori sono correlati a qualcosa che ci interessa sapere, possiamo usare il mercato per prevedere come andrà a finire. Questo semplice paradigma puo’ essere applicato anche ai cambiamenti climatici, per esempio si possono costruire – anzi già esistono - dei derivati finanziari relativi alla domanda di aria condizionata in futuro (anche a lungo termine). Scopriamo così che gli investitori del passato hanno fatto un buon lavoro prevedendo la portata dei cambiamenti climatici futuri, soprattutto quelli che si sono fidati delle previsioni dell'IPCC. Ma non è detta l’ultima parola: gli scettici del riscaldamento globale potrebbero scommettere contro la futura domanda di aria condizionata e fare palate di soldi, se hanno ragione – Perché non ci provano? Questo indebolisce la loro posizione.
https://voxeu.org/article/market-betting-climate-change
https://feedly.com/i/entry/ty+AzTYZ3TUuMuPycOdkUNamwQCXNpDbajbdLnbrc5c=_16b967f9750:688ea4:4b2e0c8b
https://feedly.com/i/entry/ty+AzTYZ3TUuMuPycOdkUNamwQCXNpDbajbdLnbrc5c=_16b967f9750:688ea4:4b2e0c8b
mercoledì 29 maggio 2019
F scommesse
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/05/understandable-social-systems.html
A che serve un prediction market?
YouNow
Alternative: maggioranza, prestigio, dominanza
martedì 28 agosto 2018
LA SCIENZA IN BORSA
La scienza non è democratica: non si vota, si scommette
La scienza nn è una democrazia...è una borsa
Camerer et al. (2018), the latest paper from the Social Science Replication Project, tried to replicate 21 social-science studies published in Nature or Science between 2010 and 2015. Before the replications were run the authors run a prediction market–as they had done on previous replication research–and once again the prediction market did a very good job predicting which studies would replicate and which would not...
A proposito la replica è bassina
And ultimately, they could only reproduce the results of 13 out of 21 studies—62 percent...
La base dati...
Consider the new results from the Social Sciences Replication Project, in which 24 researchers attempted to replicate social-science studies published between 2010 and 2015 in Nature and Science—the world’s top two scientific journals. ..
Gambling Can Save Science http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/08/gambling-can-save-science-2.html
giovedì 23 agosto 2018
HL If The Future Is Big Robin Hanson
If The Future Is Big
Citation (APA): Hanson, R. (2018). If The Future Is Big [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com
Parte introduttiva
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 2
If The Future Is Big By Robin Hanson
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 5
One way to predict the future is to find patterns in the past, and extend them into the future. And across the very long term history of everything, the one most robust pattern I see is: growth.
Nota - Posizione 6
METODOLOGIA DEL FUTUROLOGO....ED ESITO DI UNA CORRETTA APPLICAZIONE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 8
Yes there have been some big widespread declines in history, such as the medieval Black Death and the decline of the Roman and Chinese empires
Nota - Posizione 9
DECLINO....MA
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 14
global warming, resource exhaustion, falling fertility, or institutional rot.
Nota - Posizione 16
POSSIBILI FONTI DI DECLINO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 18
If growth is our most robust expectation for the future, what does that growth suggest or imply?
Nota - Posizione 19
LA DOMANDA DI QS POST
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 20
Imagine that you lived in a small mountain village, but that a huge city lie down in the valley below. While it might be hard to see or travel to that city, the existence of that city might still change your mountain village life
Nota - Posizione 22
PERCHÈ CI INTERESSA IL FUTURO ANTERIORE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 23
The Great Filter
Nota - Posizione 23
1
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 23
If our descendants continue to grow, some of them should eventually occupy and rearrange much larger volumes of space.
Nota - Posizione 24
PRIMA CONSEGUENZA
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 26
Yet when we look out now into the universe seeking aliens who have visibly changed the universe near them, everything we see looks dead.
Nota - Posizione 27
INDIZIO PREOCCUPANTE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 28
how far along this filter are we?
Nota - Posizione 29
CI SI CHIEDE
Nota - Posizione 32
2
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 32
Cryonics
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 32
Today when people’s bodies fail them and current medical science fails them as well, we usually let their bodies decay into nothing.
Nota - Posizione 33
DOMANI SARÀ POSSIBILE SOSPENDERE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 41
Simulation Argument
Nota - Posizione 41
3
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 41
Some of us study it formally, as historians, while others explore history via fiction and games.
Nota - Posizione 42
STUDIARE IL PASSATO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 42
mimic some details of a historical period
Nota - Posizione 43
GIOCO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 44
Our much more capable descendants should be able to create much more detailed simulations.
Nota - Posizione 44
IN FUTURO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 45
individual people simulated to such a detail that they are real living people who don’t know that they are in a simulation;
Nota - Posizione 45
POSSIBILE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 48
what is the chance that each of us is actually living in such a future simulation?
Nota - Posizione 50
DOMANDA IMBARAZZANTW
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 50
Biology Replaced
Nota - Posizione 50
4
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 51
Biology has designed and can produce vast complex systems than we today only crudely understand.
Nota - Posizione 52
OGGI
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 52
industry should displace or assimilate biology.
Nota - Posizione 53
MA L MARCO NDUSTRIA CRESCE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 57
self-moving autonomous biological organisms that have dominated Earth for billions of years have a limited future.
Nota - Posizione 57
DECLINO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 59
descendants, and any advanced aliens we meet, should be “robots.”
Nota - Posizione 60
EMULATORI...YOMINI NATI FUORI DAL GREMBO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 60
Who To Influence
Nota - Posizione 60
5
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 68
for thousands of years the average rates of return on investments have been consistently higher than economic growth rates.
Nota - Posizione 69
FARE DEL BENE NEL FUTURO...UNA TENDENZA SEMPRE PIÙ DIFFUSA
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 69
if you save and invest resources to be spent to influence people later, your influence should rise as a fraction of the world economy!
Nota - Posizione 70
QUINDI
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 73
Where to Migrate
Nota - Posizione 73
7
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 74
a big future means that most interesting places to move may be out there in that future.
Nota - Posizione 74
MIGRAZIONE PLANETARIA
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 77
you either need to live a long time, to use some sort of suspended animation such may be found in cryonics, or to have change accelerate so that the future gets bigger faster during your lifetime.
Nota - Posizione 78
ESIGENZE MIGRATORIE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 78
using rates of return on investment you can bring more resources with you
Nota - Posizione 79
INOLTRE...
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 81
Who To Impress
Nota - Posizione 81
8
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 81
We like to pretend that we don’t care what other people think, that we just do things to please ourselves.
Nota - Posizione 82
PRETESA VELLEITARIA
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 84
most of our available candidates will be in the distant future.
Nota - Posizione 84
DOMANI
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 86
High rates of return on investments means that a small sum today might be enough to pay several future people
Nota - Posizione 87
ESEMPIO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 88
one needs to make sure to save the right sort of data to allow future folks to make such judgements. But it seems possible to save a lot of data cheaply,
Nota - Posizione 89
SOLI OGGI MA VISIBILI IN FUTURO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 89
Incentives For Honesty
Nota - Posizione 90
9
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 91
One simple way to encourage honesty is to have experts make bets supporting their claims.
Nota - Posizione 91
SCOMMESSE E ONESTÀ
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 94
we can try to have the distant future settle bets.
Nota - Posizione 94
GIUDICI DEL FUTURO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 95
imagine that we save lots of data about today’s academics, including not just their publications, but also their tweets, emails, and much more. We commit to paying distant future folks to use that data to do very detailed analyses of a random one percent of today’s academics, carefully judging their overall intellectual contribution
Nota - Posizione 97
ESEMPIO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 98
rank people
Nota - Posizione 98
OBBIETTIVO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 99
citation grubbing, mutual-admiration societies, and other games people play today to create the illusion of a consensus on who is good.
Nota - Posizione 99
PRATICHE SPIAZZATE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 101
Here’s another fanciful example. Today if I sue you today for $ 10,000, we soon have a court decide if you have to pay me or not. You and I each pay big amounts for lawyers and preparation, and the court also pays to make a decision. A decision that could be wrong. Imagine instead that we saved lots of data about this lawsuit and put off the decision, committing to have distant future folks decide, when the world is wiser and analysis is cheaper. In the meantime you pay $ 10,000 immediately and in return get the asset “$ 10,000 if found innocent”, while I get the asset “$ 10,000 if found guilty.”
Nota - Posizione 105
ALTRO ESEMPIO...PROCESSO TRASLATO
sabato 27 agosto 2016
Hanson e i prediction market
The human part of any large intelligent system is by far the most intelligent part. As long as this remains true, the biggest system advancements will come from aids that fill big holes in human abilities, rather than from artifacts that stretch engineers' abilities. Consider Post-it Notes or, better yet, plain paper notepads. These probably seemed like trivial ideas, but they turned out to be terribly useful.Read more at location 1098
Consider, for example, a clearly important policy question such as, How would crime rates change if more citizens could legally carry hidden guns?Read more at location 1104
I suspect that the existence of such divergent opinions reflects the fact that we suffer from a serious failure to share information.Read more at location 1105
The real problem is not finding more words, but judging who really knows about the topic and whether these experts are saying what they know. We are in many ways bit-full, yet information-poor. Read more at location 1108
I suggest that speculative markets are a neglected way to help us find out what people know. Such markets pool the information that is knownRead more at location 1110
Speculative markets are decentralized and relatively egalitarian, and they can offer direct, concise, timely, and precise estimates in answer to questions we pose. These estimates are self-consistent across a wide range of issues and respond quickly to new information. They also seem to be cheap and relatively accurate.Read more at location 1112
Imagine that we created markets where people could bet on future crime rates, conditional on allowing or not allowing more hidden guns. That is, if the market prices predicted that murder rates would be 10 percent higher should a certain hidden-gun bill pass, then anyone who thought this estimate too high could easily identify a particular profitable trade.Read more at location 1114
if market prices said that crime rates would be 10 percent higher given more hidden guns, most nonexperts would accept this estimate as our "best answer" or as a neutral "consensus."Read more at location 1117
Speculators, in turn, would have a clear incentive to be careful and honest in contributing what they know and in judging what advocates know.Read more at location 1120
First, you must state your claim clearly.Read more at location 1122
Next, you must choose some particular trusted third party who will finally declare a murder rate M within [0,1] and determine whether bill B passed.Read more at location 1126
Finally, you have to decide how much to subsidize this market. If interest in your topic is strong enough, simply creating these markets might induce people to trade in them. Failing that, sufficient interest might be induced if someone committed to make a policy choice based on the market estimate.Read more at location 1136
You can also safely and directly subsidize a market to induce more participation.Read more at location 1139
Murder rates-with or without capital punishment? • Average mortality rates-with or without national health insurance? • Health-care spending-with expanded or curtailed use of health maintenance organizations? • Employment change-raise minimum wage or rescind NAFTA? • Global sea-level and temperature changes-impose or not impose a carbon dioxide tax? • Military casualties-with a Republican or a Democratic president? • Stock prices-with a Republican- or Democrat-controlled U.S. Congress? • World per capita food consumption-raise or lower average tariffs? • Student test scores-with or without school choice or voucher reform? • Future national economic growth-raise or lower interest rates, or with or without an education subsidy? Read more at location 1142
But how clear, cheap, and accurate are such market estimates? Read more at location 1148
decades of research on the efficiency of financial markets have found little price-relevant information that is not reflected in market prices.Read more at location 1149
Any inefficiencies seem to be weak and to go away with publicity, because they represent a profit opportunity. If you think the current price is too low, you expect to profit by buying now and selling later, and buying now will raise the price,Read more at location 1150
For example, orange juice futures prices have been shown to improve on government weather forecastsRead more at location 1152
Also, markets where traders can bet on election results predict vote totals better than opinion pollsRead more at location 1152
while most traders tended to suffer from cognitive biases such as expecting others to agree with them, the most active traders were not biased this way-and active traders set the prices. Speculative markets thus seem to induce the real experts to self-select and participate more.Read more at location 1154
Older economics writings sometimes give the impression that speculative markets will not function unless you have thousands of traders frequently trading millions of dollars worth of goods. Recent Web markets, however, clearly show that markets can be much smaller and slower than this.Read more at location 1157
Until the last few centuries, the cost of simply handling trades was enough to sharply limit the number of speculative markets that could be made widely available. Yet today, ebay.com routinely sells $10 items by having a handful of people bid a few times each over a period of a week.Read more at location 1163
More important, most speculative markets are now illegal. The short history of financial market regulation is that everything was once illegal until limited exemptions were granted for specific purposes.Read more at location 1166
Gradually, exceptions were granted for what came to be seen as worthy purposes, such as teaching people about horses (horseracing) or raising state revenue (lotteries).Read more at location 1168
Stocks were allowed for the purpose of capitalizing firms,Read more at location 1169
insurance was allowed to let individuals hedge risks.Read more at location 1169
commodity futures and financial derivatives were allowed to let firms hedge more risks.Read more at location 1170
how can we test prototypes if IA markets are generally illegal? Well, there is one plausible loophole (besides offshore gambling), which I have saved for those of you who are still reading this far: internal corporate markets.Read more at location 1183
several companies, including Hewlett-Packard and Siemens, have begun experimenting with real-money internal speculative markets for estimating things such as future sales. Read more at location 1185
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