INTERROGARE L'ORACOLO

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 http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/01/surprising-popularity.html

Riccardo Mariani

Adesso · 

INTERROGARE L'ORACOLO

Nel 1907 Francis Galton (foto) scoprì la "saggezza della folla", un oracolo con proprietà divinatorie portentose che potremmo sfruttare per scoprire tante cose interessanti, tipo se Dio esiste, oppure se l'aborto è un atto eticamente lecito, oppure ancora per scovare i marziani nell'universo. Purtroppo non sappiamo ancora interrogarlo a dovere, di solito lo facciamo decidendo di mettere ai voti una questione ma la cosa non funziona poiché - votando - la gente è più interessata ad associarsi in "partiti" ideologici con altre persone che a scoprire la verità. Sostituire il voto con le scommesse (mercato) è utile ma solo per un numero limitato di questioni, quelle in cui a posteriori è possibile accertare i vincitori: se faccio scommettere su Dio, per esempio, come posso a posteriori accertare il vincitore e compensarlo?

Un metodo che rimedia in parte a questi difetti in realtà esiste e va sotto il nome di "popolarità a sorpresa". A ciascuno dei componenti della "folla" vengono chieste due cose: 1) di votare su una questione, 2) di prevedere come voteranno gli altri. Alla fine, l'opzione scelta con una "frequenza sorprendente" rispetto alle previsioni fatte sarà considerata la più vicina alla verità.

Il meccanismo ha due pregi: 1) si puo' incentivare, ovvero si puo' pagare un premio a chi fa previsioni azzeccate, 2) si applica anche a questioni la cui verità non è accertabile a posteriori.

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http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/08/ways-to-choose-a-futarchy-welfare-measure.html

IL PROBLEMA DELL’AMBIENTALISTA SCETTICO E’ CHE NON SCOMMETTE SULLE SUE CREDENZE

IL PROBLEMA DELL’AMBIENTALISTA SCETTICO E’ CHE NON SCOMMETTE SULLE SUE CREDENZE

Il mercato borsistico è sostanzialmente un mercato previsionale sui valori delle attività, quindi se tali valori sono correlati a qualcosa che ci interessa sapere, possiamo usare il mercato per prevedere come andrà a finire. Questo semplice paradigma puo’ essere applicato anche ai cambiamenti climatici, per esempio si possono costruire – anzi già esistono - dei derivati finanziari relativi alla domanda di aria condizionata in futuro (anche a lungo termine). Scopriamo così che gli investitori del passato hanno fatto un buon lavoro prevedendo la portata dei cambiamenti climatici futuri, soprattutto quelli che si sono fidati delle previsioni dell'IPCC. Ma non è detta l’ultima parola: gli scettici del riscaldamento globale potrebbero scommettere contro la futura domanda di aria condizionata e fare palate di soldi, se hanno ragione – Perché non ci provano? Questo indebolisce la loro posizione.

https://voxeu.org/article/market-betting-climate-change


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F scommesse

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/05/understandable-social-systems.html

A che serve un prediction market?
YouNow
Alternative: maggioranza, prestigio, dominanza

LA SCIENZA IN BORSA

Riccardo Mariani

Adesso · 

La scienza non è democratica: non si vota, si scommette

THEATLANTIC.COM

Online Bettors Can Sniff Out Weak Psychology Studies

So why can't the journals that publish them?

La scienza nn è una democrazia...è una borsa

Camerer et al. (2018), the latest paper from the Social Science Replication Project, tried to replicate 21 social-science studies published in Nature or Science between 2010 and 2015. Before the replications were run the authors run a prediction market–as they had done on previous replication research–and once again the prediction market did a very good job predicting which studies would replicate and which would not...

A proposito la replica è bassina

And ultimately, they could only reproduce the results of 13 out of 21 studies—62 percent...

La base dati...

Consider the new results from the Social Sciences Replication Project, in which 24 researchers attempted to replicate social-science studies published between 2010 and 2015 in Nature and Science—the world’s top two scientific journals. ..

Gambling Can Save Science http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/08/gambling-can-save-science-2.html

HL If The Future Is Big Robin Hanson

If The Future Is Big

Robin Hanson

Citation (APA): Hanson, R. (2018). If The Future Is Big [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com

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Parte introduttiva

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 2

If The Future Is Big By Robin Hanson

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 5

One way to predict the future is to find patterns in the past, and extend them into the future. And across the very long term history of everything, the one most robust pattern I see is: growth.

Nota - Posizione 6

METODOLOGIA DEL FUTUROLOGO....ED ESITO DI UNA CORRETTA APPLICAZIONE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 8

Yes there have been some big widespread declines in history, such as the medieval Black Death and the decline of the Roman and Chinese empires

Nota - Posizione 9

DECLINO....MA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 14

global warming, resource exhaustion, falling fertility, or institutional rot.

Nota - Posizione 16

POSSIBILI FONTI DI DECLINO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 18

If growth is our most robust expectation for the future, what does that growth suggest or imply?

Nota - Posizione 19

LA DOMANDA DI QS POST

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 20

Imagine that you lived in a small mountain village, but that a huge city lie down in the valley below. While it might be hard to see or travel to that city, the existence of that city might still change your mountain village life

Nota - Posizione 22

PERCHÈ CI INTERESSA IL FUTURO ANTERIORE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 23

The Great Filter

Nota - Posizione 23

1

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 23

If our descendants continue to grow, some of them should eventually occupy and rearrange much larger volumes of space.

Nota - Posizione 24

PRIMA CONSEGUENZA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 26

Yet when we look out now into the universe seeking aliens who have visibly changed the universe near them, everything we see looks dead.

Nota - Posizione 27

INDIZIO PREOCCUPANTE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 28

how far along this filter are we?

Nota - Posizione 29

CI SI CHIEDE

Nota - Posizione 32

2

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 32

Cryonics

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 32

Today when people’s bodies fail them and current medical science fails them as well, we usually let their bodies decay into nothing.

Nota - Posizione 33

DOMANI SARÀ POSSIBILE SOSPENDERE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 41

Simulation Argument

Nota - Posizione 41

3

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 41

Some of us study it formally, as historians, while others explore history via fiction and games.

Nota - Posizione 42

STUDIARE IL PASSATO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 42

mimic some details of a historical period

Nota - Posizione 43

GIOCO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 44

Our much more capable descendants should be able to create much more detailed simulations.

Nota - Posizione 44

IN FUTURO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 45

individual people simulated to such a detail that they are real living people who don’t know that they are in a simulation;

Nota - Posizione 45

POSSIBILE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 48

what is the chance that each of us is actually living in such a future simulation?

Nota - Posizione 50

DOMANDA IMBARAZZANTW

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 50

Biology Replaced

Nota - Posizione 50

4

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 51

Biology has designed and can produce vast complex systems than we today only crudely understand.

Nota - Posizione 52

OGGI

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 52

industry should displace or assimilate biology.

Nota - Posizione 53

MA L MARCO NDUSTRIA CRESCE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 57

self-moving autonomous biological organisms that have dominated Earth for billions of years have a limited future.

Nota - Posizione 57

DECLINO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 59

descendants, and any advanced aliens we meet, should be “robots.”

Nota - Posizione 60

EMULATORI...YOMINI NATI FUORI DAL GREMBO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 60

Who To Influence

Nota - Posizione 60

5

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 68

for thousands of years the average rates of return on investments have been consistently higher than economic growth rates.

Nota - Posizione 69

FARE DEL BENE NEL FUTURO...UNA TENDENZA SEMPRE PIÙ DIFFUSA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 69

if you save and invest resources to be spent to influence people later, your influence should rise as a fraction of the world economy!

Nota - Posizione 70

QUINDI

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 73

Where to Migrate

Nota - Posizione 73

7

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 74

a big future means that most interesting places to move may be out there in that future.

Nota - Posizione 74

MIGRAZIONE PLANETARIA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 77

you either need to live a long time, to use some sort of suspended animation such may be found in cryonics, or to have change accelerate so that the future gets bigger faster during your lifetime.

Nota - Posizione 78

ESIGENZE MIGRATORIE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 78

using rates of return on investment you can bring more resources with you

Nota - Posizione 79

INOLTRE...

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 81

Who To Impress

Nota - Posizione 81

8

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 81

We like to pretend that we don’t care what other people think, that we just do things to please ourselves.

Nota - Posizione 82

PRETESA VELLEITARIA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 84

most of our available candidates will be in the distant future.

Nota - Posizione 84

DOMANI

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 86

High rates of return on investments means that a small sum today might be enough to pay several future people

Nota - Posizione 87

ESEMPIO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 88

one needs to make sure to save the right sort of data to allow future folks to make such judgements. But it seems possible to save a lot of data cheaply,

Nota - Posizione 89

SOLI OGGI MA VISIBILI IN FUTURO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 89

Incentives For Honesty

Nota - Posizione 90

9

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 91

One simple way to encourage honesty is to have experts make bets supporting their claims.

Nota - Posizione 91

SCOMMESSE E ONESTÀ

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 94

we can try to have the distant future settle bets.

Nota - Posizione 94

GIUDICI DEL FUTURO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 95

imagine that we save lots of data about today’s academics, including not just their publications, but also their tweets, emails, and much more. We commit to paying distant future folks to use that data to do very detailed analyses of a random one percent of today’s academics, carefully judging their overall intellectual contribution

Nota - Posizione 97

ESEMPIO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 98

rank people

Nota - Posizione 98

OBBIETTIVO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 99

citation grubbing, mutual-admiration societies, and other games people play today to create the illusion of a consensus on who is good.

Nota - Posizione 99

PRATICHE SPIAZZATE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 101

Here’s another fanciful example. Today if I sue you today for $ 10,000, we soon have a court decide if you have to pay me or not. You and I each pay big amounts for lawyers and preparation, and the court also pays to make a decision. A decision that could be wrong. Imagine instead that we saved lots of data about this lawsuit and put off the decision, committing to have distant future folks decide, when the world is wiser and analysis is cheaper. In the meantime you pay $ 10,000 immediately and in return get the asset “$ 10,000 if found innocent”, while I get the asset “$ 10,000 if found guilty.”

Nota - Posizione 105

ALTRO ESEMPIO...PROCESSO TRASLATO

Hanson e i prediction market

5 Read more at location 1098

Note: 5@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ Edit

The human part of any large intelligent system is by far the most intelligent part. As long as this remains true, the biggest system advancements will come from aids that fill big holes in human abilities, rather than from artifacts that stretch engineers' abilities. Consider Post-it Notes or, better yet, plain paper notepads. These probably seemed like trivial ideas, but they turned out to be terribly useful.Read more at location 1098

Note: BIAS Edit

Consider, for example, a clearly important policy question such as, How would crime rates change if more citizens could legally carry hidden guns?Read more at location 1104

Note: ESEMPIO DI UN PROBLEMA Edit

I suspect that the existence of such divergent opinions reflects the fact that we suffer from a serious failure to share information.Read more at location 1105

Note: SHARE INFORMATION Edit

The real problem is not finding more words, but judging who really knows about the topic and whether these experts are saying what they know. We are in many ways bit-full, yet information-poor. Read more at location 1108

Note: NOISE Edit

I suggest that speculative markets are a neglected way to help us find out what people know. Such markets pool the information that is knownRead more at location 1110

Note: TESI Edit

Speculative markets are decentralized and relatively egalitarian, and they can offer direct, concise, timely, and precise estimates in answer to questions we pose. These estimates are self-consistent across a wide range of issues and respond quickly to new information. They also seem to be cheap and relatively accurate.Read more at location 1112

Note: PREGI Edit

How Decision Markets Work Read more at location 1114

Note: T Edit

Imagine that we created markets where people could bet on future crime rates, conditional on allowing or not allowing more hidden guns. That is, if the market prices predicted that murder rates would be 10 percent higher should a certain hidden-gun bill pass, then anyone who thought this estimate too high could easily identify a particular profitable trade.Read more at location 1114

Note: ESEMPIO Edit

if market prices said that crime rates would be 10 percent higher given more hidden guns, most nonexperts would accept this estimate as our "best answer" or as a neutral "consensus."Read more at location 1117

Note: NEUTRAL CONSENSUS Edit

Speculators, in turn, would have a clear incentive to be careful and honest in contributing what they know and in judging what advocates know.Read more at location 1120

Note: ONESTÀ Edit

speculators must "put their money where their mouth is." Read more at location 1120

Add a note

First, you must state your claim clearly.Read more at location 1122

Note: CONDIZIONI NECESSARIE Edit

Next, you must choose some particular trusted third party who will finally declare a murder rate M within [0,1] and determine whether bill B passed.Read more at location 1126

Note: TERZI Edit

Finally, you have to decide how much to subsidize this market. If interest in your topic is strong enough, simply creating these markets might induce people to trade in them. Failing that, sufficient interest might be induced if someone committed to make a policy choice based on the market estimate.Read more at location 1136

Note: SABOTARE Edit

You can also safely and directly subsidize a market to induce more participation.Read more at location 1139

Note: AMORE PARTECIPATION Edit

Murder rates-with or without capital punishment? • Average mortality rates-with or without national health insurance? • Health-care spending-with expanded or curtailed use of health maintenance organizations? • Employment change-raise minimum wage or rescind NAFTA? • Global sea-level and temperature changes-impose or not impose a carbon dioxide tax? • Military casualties-with a Republican or a Democratic president? • Stock prices-with a Republican- or Democrat-controlled U.S. Congress? • World per capita food consumption-raise or lower average tariffs? • Student test scores-with or without school choice or voucher reform? • Future national economic growth-raise or lower interest rates, or with or without an education subsidy? Read more at location 1142

Note: TOPICHE CONFORMI Edit

How Well Do Markets Work? Read more at location 1147

Note: T Edit

But how clear, cheap, and accurate are such market estimates? Read more at location 1148

Note: ACCURACY Edit

decades of research on the efficiency of financial markets have found little price-relevant information that is not reflected in market prices.Read more at location 1149

Note: INFORMAZIONI Edit

Any inefficiencies seem to be weak and to go away with publicity, because they represent a profit opportunity. If you think the current price is too low, you expect to profit by buying now and selling later, and buying now will raise the price,Read more at location 1150

Note: PUBBLICITÀ Edit

For example, orange juice futures prices have been shown to improve on government weather forecastsRead more at location 1152

Note: SPREMUTE Edit

Also, markets where traders can bet on election results predict vote totals better than opinion pollsRead more at location 1152

Note: SONDAGGI Edit

while most traders tended to suffer from cognitive biases such as expecting others to agree with them, the most active traders were not biased this way-and active traders set the prices. Speculative markets thus seem to induce the real experts to self-select and participate more.Read more at location 1154

Note: BIAS Edit

Older economics writings sometimes give the impression that speculative markets will not function unless you have thousands of traders frequently trading millions of dollars worth of goods. Recent Web markets, however, clearly show that markets can be much smaller and slower than this.Read more at location 1157

Note: THICK Edit

What's the Holdup? Read more at location 1162

Note: T Edit

Until the last few centuries, the cost of simply handling trades was enough to sharply limit the number of speculative markets that could be made widely available. Yet today, ebay.com routinely sells $10 items by having a handful of people bid a few times each over a period of a week.Read more at location 1163

Note: COSTOSITÀ Edit

Note: AWEB Edit

More important, most speculative markets are now illegal. The short history of financial market regulation is that everything was once illegal until limited exemptions were granted for specific purposes.Read more at location 1166

Note: ILLEGALI Edit

Gradually, exceptions were granted for what came to be seen as worthy purposes, such as teaching people about horses (horseracing) or raising state revenue (lotteries).Read more at location 1168

Note: LEGALIZZAZIONE LENTA Edit

Note: LOTTERIE E CSVALLI Edit

Stocks were allowed for the purpose of capitalizing firms,Read more at location 1169

Note: STOCKS Edit

insurance was allowed to let individuals hedge risks.Read more at location 1169

Note: ASSICURAZIONI Edit

commodity futures and financial derivatives were allowed to let firms hedge more risks.Read more at location 1170

Note: DERIVATI Edit

how can we test prototypes if IA markets are generally illegal? Well, there is one plausible loophole (besides offshore gambling), which I have saved for those of you who are still reading this far: internal corporate markets.Read more at location 1183

Note: INTERNAL CORPORATE MARKET Edit

several companies, including Hewlett-Packard and Siemens, have begun experimenting with real-money internal speculative markets for estimating things such as future sales. Read more at location 1185

Note: HP Edit