Have Past IPCC Temperature Predictions Been Accurate?

Ideas: Have Past IPCC Temperature Projections/Predictions Been Accurate?: "So it looks as though the IPCC has predicted high four times out of four, two of the four times by a lot."



'via Blog this'



One way of judging how good a job the IPCC has done of modelling global climate is to compare its predictions with a much simpler model, a linear fit of past data. Looking at a webbed graph of the data and fitting by eye, the slope of the line from 1910, when current warming seems to have started, to 1990, when the first IPCC report came out, is about .12 °C/decade. That gives a better prediction of what happened after 1990 than any of the IPCC reports.

Effetto serra: qualcosa non va

Pochi dubbi che esista un effetto antropogenico sulle temperature.

Ma come spiegare la pausa degli ultimi dieci anni?

E quella dal 1940 al 1970?

In questi intervalli la CO2 è aumentata parecchio.

Il modello ICCP ha dei buchi, ormai è chiaro. Qualche variabile che spinge in giù le temperature non viene considerata.


Ideas: Global Warming: Implications of the Current Data:

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions