FARE SOLDI NELLA CONSULENZA FINANZIARIA.

FARE SOLDI NELLA CONSULENZA FINANZIARIA.

Scegli un'azione a caso, dì a 256 persone che il suo prezzo sta per salire e ad altre 256 che sta per scendere. Dopo una settimana, quando una delle tue previsioni si è dimostrata accurata, prendi le 256 persone che hanno ascoltato la previsione accurata, dividile in due gruppi di 128 persone, dì a un gruppo che qualche altro titolo scelto a caso sta per salire e dì all'altro che invece sta per scendere. Dopo un'altra settimana, hai fornito a 128 persone due previsioni precise di seguito. Dividi questa gente in due gruppi di 64 persone e ripeti quanto sopra. Presto potrai isolare 8 persone che ti hanno sentito fare sei previsioni precise di seguito. Dì loro che se vogliono la tua prossima previsione, dovranno pagare caro. Ovviamente lo faranno, e tu le potrai spremere a dovere.

CONIUGI PEDANTI

CONIUGI PEDANTI

Mia moglie ed io abbiamo un accordo non scritto: io vado a prendere la Marghe quando esce da scuola, lei va a prendere la Vichi. E' comodo così. Un giorno, poiché sapevo che sarei stato vicino alla scuola di Vichi, trovavo conveniente scambiarci i ruoli. Dall'ufficio le ho mandato un messaggio via e-mail: "Oggi passo io a prendere Vichi, tu vai da Marghe. Conferma se leggi, altrimenti facciamo come sempre". Mi ha risposto: "Va bene, fammi solo sapere se ricevi il mio ok in modo da procedere". A questo punto ho fatto un vocale: "Ok per lo scambio, fammi sapere solo se hai ricevuto il mio ok, altrimenti nulla". Mi ha risposto ancora via mail: "Per me va benone, se riceverai questo messaggio saprò che posso contare su di te"...

Mia moglie sarà anche pedante ma, in effetti, senza la mia conferma non poteva essere sicura di aver ottenuto la mia precedente conferma, quella in cui dicevo di aver ricevuto il suo primo messaggio, e potrebbe essersi preoccupata che il piano di scambio fosse abortito. E' frustrante scoprire che anche per comunicazioni tanto elementari l'altro non ha tutte le info necessarie per agire con certezza. Il risultato, ovviamente, dato che possiamo scambiarci solo un numero finito di messaggi, è stato quello di abbandonare il piano: entrambi abbiamo deciso indipendentemente di prendere il solito bambino.

La morale della storia è che un conto è condividere certe informazione, e un altro, ben diverso, condividere la condivisione.

IL MASCHIO TANTO DESIDERATO

Riccardo Mariani

Adesso · 

QUIZ IMPOSSIBILI

In un paese tutte le coppie vogliono almeno un figlio maschio. Quale sarà il rapporto bambini/bambine?

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Risposta: infinito. Infatti c'è almeno una possibilità che tutti abbiano un figlio unico maschio (infinito). Se un addendo è infinito, anche la somma sarà infinita.

MISERIA DEI TRIBUNALI

MISERIA DEI TRIBUNALI

Nelle aule di giustizia noi “accertiamo i fatti”.

E’ lì che troviamo i grandi esperti dell’ “accertamento”, loro sanno persino distinguere un fatto semplicemente “accertato” da un fatto “accertato oltre ogni ragionevole dubbio”.

Purtroppo basta un giochetto da ragazzi per incrinare questa fiducia negli operatori del diritto.

Poniamo di avere due urne di 100 palline: nella prima – l’urna proibita - ci sono 70 palline bianche e 30 nere, nella seconda – l’urna accessibile - 30 bianche e 70 nere. Tu, giudice, hai di fronte a te un ragazzo con in mano un dozzina di palline (8 bianche e 4 nere). Sai che le ha estratte a caso da una delle due urne. Ora, che fai? Condanni perché colpevole “oltre ogni ragionevole dubbio” o scagioni per mancanza di prove?

Il problemino è stato sottoposto a giudici di tribunale e ad altri operatori del diritto. A parte risposte stravaganti del tipo: “la mia esperienza mi insegna che la realtà è contorta e ingannevole, mai fidarsi quindi delle apparenze”, in genere si è capito che il bimbo aveva violato “l’urna proibita”. Ma si poteva condannarlo? I “professionisti dell’accertamento dei fatti” quantificavano la probabilità di colpevolezza intorno al 55%.

In realtà è del 98%, basta un calcolino di terza ragioneria per scoprirlo. Ma “i professionisti dell’accertamento” non erano in grado di farlo.

La differenza tra 55 e 98 è enorme, ma soprattutto in mezzo ci sta la soglia fatidica del “ragionevole dubbio”. Ma dove sta poi questa fatidica soglia? A quota 70? A quota 80? A quota 99? I primi ad ignorarlo sono quelli che con questa soglia ci lavorano tutti i giorni, se chiedi a loro fanno scena muta. Prendo allora per buone le parole del giurista William Blackstone il quale sosteneva: “meglio dieci colpevoli fuori che un innocente in galera”, il che si traduce in una soglia del 90%, ovvero si condanna solo con probabilità di colpevolezza superiore al 90%. Direi che nel nostro caso anche la prudenziale soglia-Blackstone viene superata abbondantemente in barba alla miopia degli “accertatori”.

COME TI FREGA IL MEDIOEVO

COME TI FREGA IL MEDIOEVO

A prima vista è quell’epoca in cui per 4 secoli gli intelletti più raffinati hanno creduto che per stabilire la colpevolezza di un’ imputato bastasse spingerlo a raccattare un anello gettato nell’acqua bollente di un pentolone. Se si ustionava era colpevole, se restava illeso innocente.

Che ridere.

Poi scopri che: 1) la fede era diffusa 2) l’ammissione alla procedura cavillosa 3) le sentenze quasi tutte di innocenza, 4) gli infedeli (ebrei, mussulmani…) non ammessi, 5) le procedure somministrate da una casta come quella sacerdotale avvolta da mille misteri.

Ora, immaginatevi un colpevole: non chiederà mai l’ordalia… smascherando così la sua colpevolezza. La chiederà invece con forza l’innocente che verrà scagionato dall’acqua tiepida immessa dai sacerdoti in gran segreto.

Ergo, in un mondo senza i mezzi per fare indagini degne di questo nome la giustizia era ugualmente assicurata dal genio. Ancora una volta il genio del medioevo ci ha fregato.

PIU’ INTELLIGENTI DI GOOGLE

PIU’ INTELLIGENTI DI GOOGLE

Il quiz che Google rivolgeva ai candidati nei colloqui di lavoro: 
“In un certo paese le famiglie, poiché desiderano un figlio maschio, continuino ad avere figli finché il maschio non arriva. Domanda: quale sarà il rapporto maschi/femmine in questo paese?”
Risposta esatta: circa 50%
“Rivolgeva” per due motivi: 1) ormai è uscito e quindi non ha più senso utilizzarlo. Ma soprattutto 2) la risposta che veniva considerata esatta era clamorosamente sbagliata.

Chi capisce perché puo’ ben dirsi è più intelligente di Google.

HL CHAPTER 8 Are You Smarter Than Google?

CHAPTER 8 Are You Smarter Than Google?
Note:8@@@@@@@@@@@@

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each couple keeps having children until they have a boy, then they stop. What fraction of the population is female?
Note:IL QUESTITO CHE HA FATTO INFIAMARE IL PUBBLICO

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the question is meant to be answered in expectation,

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NULLA È CERTO QUI

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Google has used it to screen job candidates.
Note:UN QUESITO CON UNA STORIA

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simple, clear, and wrong.
Note:LA RISPOSTA UFFICIALE

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Each birth has a 50 percent chance of producing a girl.
Note:RISPOSTA UFFICIALE...

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half of all the children are girls.
Note:Cccccccccccccccc

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it does not follow—and in fact is not true!—that in expectation, half of all children are girls.
Note:PURTROPPO DALLE PREMESSE CORRETTE

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the number of boys and the number of girls are equal.
Note:QUEL XHE SEGUE...CHE NN È LA STESSA COSA

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2 Eggs and Pancakes
Note:Ttttttttttttttt

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two eggs and one pancake.
Note:A COLAZIONE SE ESCE TESTA

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two eggs and three pancakes.
Note:SE ESCE CROCE

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every day) I have exactly two eggs.
Note:UNA COSA È CERTA

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two pancakes
Note:MEDIAMENTE

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the number of pancakes is equal to the number of eggs.
Note:MEDIAMENTE....

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Whenever I flip heads, ⅓ of my breakfast items are pancakes. Whenever I flip tails, ⅗ of my breakfast items are pancakes. The average of those two numbers is 7/15.
Note:LA RISPOSTA ESAYTA

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equal in expectation,* but that tells you nothing about their expected ratio.
Note:REGOLA GENERALE CON DUE ELEMENTI

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the correct answer depends on the size of the country.
Note:PRIMA CONSIDERAZIONE

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one family.
Note:1/2 MASCHIO 1/4 UN MASCHIO UNA FEMMINA 1/8 UN MACHIO DUE FEMMINE

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multiply it by the corresponding probability,
Note:NUMERO MEDIO DI BAMBINE ATTESE....QUELLO DEI MASCHI È UNO...ANXHE PER LE BAMBINE È UNO

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the expected number of girls is equal to the expected number of boys—just
Note:PRENDIAMO UNA FAMIGLIA MEDIA

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But to get the expected fraction of girls, we need to do the same calculation with fractions of girls
Note:MEDIA FRAZIONI...30%

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that calculation is only correct for a country with just one family.
Note:RICORDIAMOCI

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For a country with two families, a similar but more complicated calculation gives an expected fraction of about 38.63 percent.
Note:DUE FAMIGLIE

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For a country comparable to the United States, with about 100 million families, the expected fraction is about 49.999999975 percent.
50

HL CHAPTER 7 Law School Admissions Test

CHAPTER 7 Law School Admissions Test
Note:7@@@@@@@@@@@@

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think clearly about how to assess evidence.
Note:LA PRIMA DOTE DEL GIUDICE

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1 Reasonable Doubt
Note:Tttttttttttttttt

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While you weren’t looking, I reached into one of these urns and randomly drew out a dozen balls. (I flipped a fair coin to choose the urn.) As you can see, 4 of those balls were white and 8 were black.
Note:HO DUE URNE DI 100…70/30 NELLA PRIMA E 30/70 NELLA SECONDA

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SOLUTION: It’s roughly 98 percent probable that I drew from the right urn.
Note:SOLUZIONE

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The decision theorist Howard Raiffa once posed this problem (with some minor changes) to a group of lawyers at a cocktail party
Note:RAIFFA

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life is just plain perverse, so I would bet on the left-hand urn!
Note:TIPICA RISPOSTA ESTREMA...MA ANCHE CHI RISPONDEVA CORRETTAMENTE NN QUANTIFICAVA

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the odds might have gone up from 50–50 to about 55–45.
Note:I NUMERI DATI

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beyond a reasonable doubt.
Note:UNA DIFFERENZA RILEVANTE

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even statistics students tend to cluster their guesses around 70
Note:AMMETTIAMOLO...

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Is 98 percent really beyond a reasonable doubt?
Note:ALTRO PROBLEMA

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There’s not much in life that we can be more than 98 percent sure of.
Note:DIREI CMQ DI SÌ

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William Blackstone, it’s better that ten guilty men escape than that one innocent suffer.
Note:LO STANDARD

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far above and beyond this standard.

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QUINDI IL 98…

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empirical evidence suggests that for real-world juries, the cutoff for reasonable doubt is somewhere around 74 percent.
Note:74

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To my knowledge, no serious scholar has ever defended a bar that high. So once again I think we can safely say that 98 percent counts as well beyond a reasonable doubt.
Note:CONCLUSIONE

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The Boy with Purple Hair
Note:Ttttttttttttt

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officers are told to be on the lookout for a suspect with naturally purple hair.
Note:IL DNA DEL COLPEVOLE PARLA CHIARO

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Nathan’s
Note:INDIVIDUATO

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odds against it are a million to one.
Note:I CAPELLI VIOLA NATURALI SONO MOLTO RARI

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Nathan guilty beyond a reasonable doubt?
Note:DOMANDA

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On a weekday afternoon, there are about 4 million people in Manhattan.
Note:I SOSPETTATI

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as likely as Nathan to be the culprit,
Note:4 PERSONE

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25 percent chance he’s guilty.
Note:BREVW CALCOLO

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you cannot assess evidence without weighing it against relevant background information.
Note:LA MORALE DELLA STORIA

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3 The HIV Test
Note:Tttttttttt

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you’re infected.
Note:ESITO DEL TEST

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a 5% chance of being wrong.
Note:FALSI POSITIVI

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most people—let’s say 99 percent of your demographic group—are uninfected.
Note:INFO RILEVANTE X CAPIRE SE SIETE INFETTI

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the probability that you’re uninfected is about 84 percent.
Note:RISPOSTA

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weighing the evidence.
Note:DOVE L EVIDENZA È CHE RISULTI INFETTO

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Suppose you know you have a rare gene that renders you absolutely immune to viruses. Then surely you are entitled to laugh off the results of the HIV test, no matter how dire they appear.
Note:X CAPIRE PRENDI UN CASO ESTREMO

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The Accused Soldier
Note:Tttttttttttt

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a foot soldier is seen lobbing a grenade toward the tent that serves as headquarters for his commanding officer.
Note:ATTO IMPRUDENTE....POCO DOPO CORPI SPAPPOLATI OVUNQUE

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the grenade in question was the notorious M16.5, which explodes only half the time.
Note:LA DIFESA DEL SOLDATO...TRATTASI DI GRANATA DIFETTOSA CHE ESPLODE AL 50%

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But the prosecution is able to prove that if the grenade went off, then there’s a 90 percent chance that it killed
Note:ULTERIORE ELEMENTO...SE LA GRANATA ESPLODE UCCIDE AL 90%

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50 percent times 90 percent, or 45 percent, right? Wrong.
Note:PRIMA RISPOSTA CHE NN CONSIDERA TUTTE LE INFO

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the relevant background information is that the officer is dead.
Note:IN PARTICOLARE

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The Four Suspects

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Ttttttttttttttt

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Bob, Carol, and Ted, who smoke, and Alice, a nonsmoker.
Note:I SOSPETTI

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the odds are two to one that the culprit is a smoker.
Note:X IL PRIMO INVESTIGATORE

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the culprit is definitely female.
Note:X IL SECONDO

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Because three of the four suspects are smokers, 86 started out believing the odds were three to one that the culprit smokes.
Note:L GNORANTE PARTE DA 3 SU 4...SE LE INDAGINI ARRIVANO A 2 SU 3 EVIDENTEMENTE HANNO SCOPERTO VQUALCOSA A CARICO DEL NN FUMATORE #####

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whatever evidence he discovered must have tended to exonerate the smokers.
Note:Cccccccccccc

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6 Theft on the Moon
Note:6@@@@@@@@@@@@SALTA

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You have a sealed lockbox about a cubic yard in volume, containing $100,000 in $100 bills.
Note:DA SPEDIRE SULLA LUNA

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weighs 50 kilograms.
Note:Cccccccc

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You give the box to your friend Al, who flies it to the moon,
Note:AL PRIMO SPEDIZIONIERE

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it still weighs 50 kilograms.
Note:UNA VOLTA SULLA LUNA

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give the box to your friend Barb, who loads it into her all-terrain vehicle
Note:SECONDO SPEDIZIONIERE

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Barb returns your lockbox. You open it and it’s empty.
Note:ALLA FINE...SPIACEVOLE SORPRESA...CHI È IL LADRO?

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7 Medieval Justice
Note:7@@@@@@@@

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thrust his arm into a cauldron of boiling water and fish out a ring. If his arm was unharmed, he was exonerated. If not, he was convicted.
Note:LA SAGGEZZA MEDIEVALE....È UN METODO EFFICIENTE? PER 400 ANNI GLI INTELLETTI PIÙ SOFISTICATI IN EUROPA CREDEVANO CHE...######

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as defendants believe (superstitiously) that ordeals yield accurate verdicts, guilty defendants always confess
Note:LA RAGIONE DELL EFFICIENZA

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priests cheat by (for example) substituting tepid for boiling water,
Note:TRUCCO EMERSO NELLE STATISTICHE

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If not everyone is perfectly superstitious,
Note:ALLORA LA STORIA SI FA PIÙ COMPLICATA

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you’d expect nonbelievers to be denied the ordeal option.
Note:ESCLUSIONE DEGLI INFEDELI

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a great many trials by ordeal ended in acquittals,
Note:EVIDENZA UNO

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nonbelievers were generally exempt
Note:DUE

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ordeals were generally administered by clerics
TRE....ESOTERISMO

HL CHAPTER 6 How Irrational Are You?

CHAPTER 6 How Irrational Are You?
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there are no objectively right or wrong answers.
Note:CARTA IGIENICA: MEGLIO SOPRA O SOTTO?

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we can agree to disagree.
Note:SUL NN OGGETTIVO

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people who try to “prove” that your choice is wrong.
Note:XICOLOSI

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there’s no accounting for tastes.”
Note:ECONOMISTA...THE GUSTIBUS

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The philosopher Sidney Morgenbesser once ordered pie in a restaurant. The waitress offered a choice of apple, blueberry, or cherry. Morgenbesser chose apple. Then the waitress remembered that the restaurant was out of blueberry. “In that case,” said Morgenbesser, “I’ll have the cherry.”
Note:LI STRANO CASO DI MORGENBESSER...L IRRAZIONALE

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There are plenty of other ways for a person to be irrational, and plenty of ways to get rich off those people. In fact, that’s a good definition of irrationality—you’re
Note:IRRAZIONALE...CHI FA SCOMMESSE XDENTI

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if you prefer a sure million to a sure $5 million,

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TI OFFRO 1 PER 5

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Let’s throw a ten-sided die. If the number that comes up is 5 or less, I’ll give you a cool million; if it’s 6 or less, you give me a million.
Note:DUTCH BOOK

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What I really like about that game is that I cannot lose.
Note:GIOCARE CON L IRRAZ È BELLISSIMO

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whenever you have an irrational preference, you’re vulnerable to some version of a Dutch book.
Note:DUTCHE BOOK

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The Irrationality Quiz
Note:ttttttttttttttUN QUIZ A PREFERENZA SEGUITO DA UN QUIZ A COERENZA...SOLO IL SECONDO PUÓ ESSERE IRRAZIONALE

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Which would you rather have: A. An 11 percent chance to win $1 million B. A 10 percent chance to win $5 million Which would you rather have: A. $1 million for certain B. A lottery ticket that gives you: an 89 percent chance to win $1 million a 10 percent chance to win $5 million a 1 percent chance to win $0
Note:VINCOLO DI RAZIONALITA': NON POSSO PREFERIRE 1B A 2A OPPURE 1A a 2A. DA QUESTO VINCOLO POSSIAMO DIRE CHE ALCUNE PREFERENZE SONO INCOERENTI. ESEMPIO: SE PREFERISCO 1A a 2A, POI NON POSSO PREFERIRE 2B A 1B

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Understanding Your Score
Note:Ttttttttttttt

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Irrationality, as economists define it, isn’t about feelings; it’s about actions.
Note:LA PORTATA LIMITATA DEI TEST

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in every case, if your quiz answers were wrong, I can think of a way to take all your money.
Note:IL SEGNALE

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Your Answers to Questions 1 and 2
Note:ttttttttttttt VINCOLO DI RAZIONALITA': NON POSSO PREFERIRE 1B A 2A OPPURE 1A a 2A. DA QUESTO VINCOLO POSSIAMO DIRE CHE ALCUNE PREFERENZE SONO INCOERENTI. ESEMPIO: SE PREFERISCO 1A a 2A, POI NON POSSO PREFERIRE 2B A 1B

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P. I’m going to give you a gift. Would you prefer that gift to be a cat or a dog? Q. I might give you a gift. If I do, would you prefer that gift to be a cat or a dog? R. My uncle Harry might give you a cat. If he doesn’t, I’ll give you a gift. Would you prefer that gift to be a cat or a dog?
Note:IRRAZIONALE PUÒ ESSERE SOLO LA TRIPLETTA

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you should give the same answer to all three questions.
Note:PATTERN CORRETTO

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Would you prefer that gift to be the million dollars or the lottery ticket?
Note:SOSTIRUISCI I REGALI E...

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“Question two offers me the option of a sure thing,” says Jeter. “I hate uncertainty,
Note:IL RAGIONAMENRO DI MOLTI

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In question one, there’s no sure thing available, so I take a shot at the bigger prize. That’s choice B.”
Note:Cccccccccccccc

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Your Answers to Questions 3 and 4
Note:Ttttttttttt

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Your Answers to Questions 5 and 6
Note:Tttttttttt

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Your Answer to Question 7
Note:ttttttttttt

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Your Answers to Questions 8 and 9
Note:Ttttttttttttt

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Your Answer to Question 10
Note:Ttttttttt

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Would you rather bet on a coin toss or on the outcome of a congressional race you know little about?
Note:NESSUNA XSONA RAZIONALE SCEGLIE LA MONETA

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You can always toss a coin to decide which congressional candidate to bet on—which means you’re betting on a coin toss either way.
Note:UN PO È SEMPRE UN PO...CONTRO L AGNOSTICISMO

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the election bet can’t be worse than a coin-toss bet.
Note:INCLUSIONE

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So You’re Irrational. Now What?
Note:Tttttttttttttttt

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Economic theory predicts that everyone will score 0
Note:LA VS IRRAZIONALITÀ È UN GUAIO ANCHE X GLI ECONOMISTI

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Give up. Admit that the rationality assumption is false,
Note:REAZIONI DAVANTI ALL EVIDENZA 1

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Find a creative interpretation.
Note:2…IRRAZIONALI DA UN LATO MA RAZIONALI DALL ALTRO

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Deny the results.
Note:3

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highly fanciful situations
Note:Ccccccccc

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Deny the relevance of the results.
Note:4

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economists are rarely called upon to predict behavior in Russian roulette
Note:Cccccccccc

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Rejoice. People are irrational. That means we have something useful to teach them! Get the word out: Take an economics class,

MAGIE DELLA STATISTICA

MAGIE DELLA STATISTICA

Negli ultimi 25 anni (1980-2005) il salario mediano dei lavoratori americani è aumentato solo del tre per cento.

Ma di lavoratori ce n’è di tutti i tipi. Dividiamoli allora in 4 categorie. Ebbene, per ognuna il salario mediano è aumentato MINIMO del 15%.

Conclusione: occhio ai numeri!!!

ASSUNTI FALSI

L'assunzione manifestamente falsa che il comportamento razionale debba condurre a buoni risultati.

Sto studiando il dilemma del prigioniero

HL CHAPTER 5 Strategy

CHAPTER 5 Strategy
Note:5@@@@@@@@@@

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unfortunate name Golden Balls,
Note:TRASMISSIONE TV

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secret choice to split or steal.
Note:DUE CONCORRDENTI HANNO DAVANTO 10000 DOLLARI...DILEMMA DEL PRIGIONIERO

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you should certainly steal.
Note:COMPORTAMENTO RAZIONALE

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stealing can’t hurt you but might help you.
Note:IN ALTRE PAROLE...SPLIT È COME STEAL MA TI FA VINCERE MENO

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everyone steals, and everyone goes home empty-handed.
Note:IN UN MONDO DI RAZIONALISTO

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the manifestly false assumption that rational behavior must lead to good outcomes.
Note:UN FALSO ASSUNTO CHE CONFONDE LE IDEE

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everyone (perfectly rationally) stands up to see better, and as a result nobody sees any better.
Note:ALTRO ESEMPII

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contestants have a few minutes to negotiate and make promises,
Note:IN GOLDEN BALL

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the negotiation should make no difference.
Note:IN TEORIA

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they care what’s being said about them the next day over water coolers throughout the United Kingdom.
Note:MA IN PRATICA C È UNA PREOCCUPAZIONE

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passionate paeans to their own honesty.
Note:CONTENUTI DELLA DISCUSSIINE

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IBRAHIM: If I give you my word . . . now let me tell you what my word means. My father once said to me, “A man who doesn’t keep his word is not a man.
Note:IL TRADITORE

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NICK: I’m going to choose the steal ball. I want you to do split, and I promise you that I will split the money with you.
Note:UNA STRANA STRATEGIA

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If Nick keeps his promise to steal, then split becomes a no-lose strategy for Ibrahim. He has no chance of winning any money directly but at least some chance that Nick will keep his subsidiary promise and split after the show.
Note:LA COSA COESA NTERESSANTE

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1 The Prisoner’s Dilemma
Note:Ttttttttttttttt

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Confessing is a no-lose strategy.
Note:DILEMMA DEL PRIGIONIERO...LA STRATEGIA DOMINANTE

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If Jeter confesses,
Note:5 ANNI SE CONFESSI ANCHE TU 10 SE NN CONFESSI

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If Jeter doesn’t confess,
Note:1 ANNO SE CONFESSI ANCHE TU 5 SE NN CONFESSI

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many of those have in fact missed the point entirely.
Note:È FAMSO MA....PO CHI CONSIDERANO L ASPETTO NO BRAINER

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as long as everyone is self-interested and rational, everyone plays tough,
Note:IN TUTTI WS GIOCHI LA CONCLUSIONE È LA STESSA

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key idea in economics:   In general, rational behavior need not lead to good outcomes.
Note:GLI ECONOMISTI AMANO IL DILEMMA

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Arms races are rational (I’m always better off armed, whether you’re armed or not, so of course I should arm), but they can impoverish everyone.
Note:ALTRO ESEMPIO

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The war against cancer is unlikely to be won by voluntary contributions,
Note:ESEMPIO

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Shared pastureland tends to be overgrazed;
Note:ESEMPIO

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communal fishing grounds
Note:ESEMPIO

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tragedy of the commons,
Note:BATTESIMO ...ALTRO NOME DEL DILEMMA

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2 Dirty Beaches
Note:Tttttttttttt

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Diamond Beach is gorgeous,
Note:NEL TUO PAESE CI SONO DUE SPIAGGE

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Zircon Beach is quite ordinary.
Note:SECONDA...PERIFERICA

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A substantial oil deposit runs under both beaches. If you’re determined to get at the oil, is it better to allow drilling
Note:DILEMMA

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Because everyone agrees that Diamond Beach is gorgeous, it’s probably overrun and ruined by the crowds. That’s where I’d start drilling.
Note:SOLUZIONE

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a freely available public resource has social value only insofar as people differ about its value.
Note:MORALE PARADOSSALE....IL BENE PUBBLICO FUNZIONA SE POCO APPREZZATO

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if the beach were more appealing than home, more people would head to the beach, adding to the congestion and subtracting from the appeal.
Note:IL LIMITE...FRONTIERA

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It’s avoidable if Diamond Beach is so large that crowds are not an issue.
Note:SOLUZIONI ALLA TRAGEDIA...PRIMA

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an admission charge
Note:SECONDA SOLUZIONE

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if some people like Diamond Beach substantially more than others do,
Note:TERZA SOLUZIONE

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3 The Two-Sided Card Game
Note:TttttttttttttCREDENZE BALLERINE...SURPRISE QUIZ....EAAN

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There’s a card with 0 and 1 on the sides, another with 1 and 2, another with 2 and 3, and so on,
Note:CARTE NUMERATE

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referee chooses a card at random and holds it up so that you can see one side and I can see the other.
Note:I GIOCATORI SCELGONO...PASS OR PLAY?

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If we both play, the person facing the higher number wins $200, the person facing the lower number loses $100,
Note:PLAY/PLAY

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A card has been chosen. On your side is the number 65. Do you pass or play?
Note:DILEMMA

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On your side is the number 0.
Note:PRIMO CASO....DI CERTO CHIUNQUE PASSEREBBE

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What should you do if you see a 1?
Note:NESSUNA POSSIBILITÁ DI VINCERE...SE L ALTRO NN PASSA HO PERSO...QUINDI

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we both always pass when we see a 1.
Note:ESITO

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What if you see a 2? Then either I see a 1, in which case I pass and it doesn’t matter what you do, or I see a 3, in which case you can only lose. So you should pass on seeing 2.
Note:ANCORA

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Even if you see 100, there’s no particular reason to play. It’s true that you can’t lose, but you can’t win either, because I always pass on 99.
Note:CASO LIMITE

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Each of them wins $200 about half the time, loses $100 about half the time, and goes home rich.
Note:IL CUGINO SCEMO CHE GIOCA SEMPRE

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Sometimes it’s better for neither of you to be rational than for both to be.
Note:MORALE

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4 Deep Pockets
Note:ttttttttttttt

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He and my math teacher would empty all the cash out of their pockets onto the desk. Whoever had brought the most claimed the entire pile. (In case of a tie, they both kept what they’d brought.)
Note:IL GIOCO DEI PORTAFOGLI....IL GIOCO CHE CONVIENE A TUTTI

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Should you carry lots of money to increase your chance of winning? Should you carry less to minimize your losses?
Note:QUAL È LA STRATEGIA MIGLIORE

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If you bring $0, you’re sure not to lose anything,
Note:LA SICUREZZA

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If you bring exactly $1,
Note:VINCI SOLO CON CHI GIRA CON ZERO...GIOCARE MN HA SENSO

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If you bring exactly $2, you still can’t win any money, because we know your opponent never brings exactly $1. On the other hand, you might lose. So there’s nothing to be gained and $2 to be lost.
Note:NESSUNO CHE VUOLE GIOCARE GIRA CON UN DOLLARO

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If you’re both rational, the only amount you can possibly bring every day is $0.
Note:CONCLUSIONE SE TUTTI SONO RAZIONALI E CON COMMOM KNOWLADGE

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6 Art at Auction
Note:Ttttttttttttt

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You’re participating in a sealed-bid auction for a one-of-a-kind painting, for which you’d be happy to pay $100 but not a penny more.
Note:IL CASO

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What number should you put in your envelope?
Note:DILEMMA

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don’t bid more than $100.
Note:L UNICO CONSIGLIO SE MM CONOSCO LA TUA PREFERENZA X IL RISCHIO

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7 Art at Auction, Take Two
Note:Ttttttttttt

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the high bidder buys the painting for the amount of the second-highest bid.
Note:CAMBIO DI REGOLE.....ORA CHE FAI?

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You should bid exactly $100, because there is no conceivable circumstance in which you might regret that bid.
Note:CONSIGLIO

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Any other choice could turn out badly.
Note:Ccccccccccc

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8 The Hundred-Dollar Auction
Note:Tttttttttttttttt

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A hundred-dollar bill has been put up for auction.
Note:UN ASTA SINGOLARE

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high bidder gets the hundred-dollar bill, but both bidders pay the amount
Note:REGOLA

Note | Location: 1,688

Ccccccccc

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Your mistake was showing up in the first place.
Note:ASTA ASURDA

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If you bid, say, $5, then your opponent has a choice: drop out (and owe $5), or raise the bid to $6 and win the hundred-dollar bill. So the bidding is sure to go a lot higher than that. What happens if you’ve just bid, say, $99? Then your opponent has a choice: drop out and owe $99, or raise the bid to $100, hoping to win the hundred-dollar bill and break even. Of course, the latter is the better choice, so he bids $100.

Note | Location: 1,695

CONVIENE OFFRIRE SEMPRE DI PIÙ...ANCHE IN PERDITA...GIUSTO X MIN PERDITA...IL MECCANISMO XVERSO

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The point is that once you’re in, there’s never a right time to drop out.
Note:USCIRE È ASSURDO

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Imagine a congressional race where the biggest campaign spender is sure to win.
Note:È UNA METAFORA X LE CAMPAGNE ELETTORALI

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Once you’re in that race, there’s no right time to quit spending
Note:INFATTI

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9 The Chicken and the Eggs
Note:Tttttttttttttttttt

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10 Card Golf
Note:Tttttttttttttt

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Each of ten people holds a stack of cards.
Note:MAZZI NUMERATI A CASACCIO

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Your task is to collect fifty cards. Your score is the total of all the numbers on the cards
Note:LO SCOPO È MINIMIZZARE IL PROPRIO PUNTEGGIO

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You could ask all ten people to hand over their five lowest cards.
Note:NON FUNZIONA...LE PIÙ BASSE POSSONO ESSERE DETENUTE DALLA STESSA XSONA

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First ask everyone to hand over all of their 1 cards. Then ask everyone to hand over all of their 2 cards. Then ask everyone to hand over all of their 3 cards. Stop when you’ve got fifty cards. (If you go over fifty, you can always discard a few of the most recently collected.)
Note:STRATEGIA ALTERNATIVA

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11 The Czar’s Dilemma
Note:TttttttttttttLA LOGICA DEI PREZZI DE IDEOLOGIZZATA

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Perhaps Farmer Nichols can produce one bushel for $3, a second bushel for an additional $5, a third for an additional $7, and a fourth for an additional $9, while Farmer Littlefield can produce one bushel for $1, a second for an additional $4, a third for an additional $8, and a fourth for an additional $12. All the farmers know their own costs, but you don’t know any of them. Your task is to arrange for the production of 50 bushels of wheat. Your goal is to conserve resources by minimizing production costs.
Note:SEI LO ZAR DELL AGRICOLTURA...IL TUO PROB È QS

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First direct each farmer to produce as many bushels as possible at a cost of $1 per bushel or less. Then direct them to produce as many as possible at $2 or less. Then $3,
Note:LA STRATEGIA OTTIMA...VEDI PRIMA

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12 The Czar’s Problem Gets a Little Harder
Note:Tttttttttttt

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the farmers see no reason to take directions from you. And you have no way of punishing disobedience, because you have no idea what the production costs are on any given farm, so you don’t know who’s disobeying.
Note:IL PROBLEMA SI COMPLICA....COME FARSI CONSEGNARE LE 50 TONNELLATE MENO COSTOSE?

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announce that you’ll pay $1 a bushel for wheat. You’ll discover that every farmer who can produce a bushel for less than $1 will choose to do so.
Note:SOLUZIONE

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That works! It also renders you, as czar, obsolete—because
Note:NEMMENO SERVI PIÙ

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The price system does the best possible job of producing any given quantity of wheat (or anything else) at the lowest possible cost. No czar, no planning board, and no other mechanism can do better.
Note:LA MORALE DELL ECONOMIA

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A system of prices and individual choices
Note:LA SAGGIA AMMINISTRAZIONE

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If you want to know why Americans prosper while North Koreans starve,
Note:RICCHEZZA DELLE NAZIONI

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the problem of cost minimization can’t in practice be solved—even approximately—by any mechanism other than the price system.
Note:IL MONDO È MOLTO PIÙ COMPLICAT C È UN PROB INFORMATIVO...QUINDI

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The moral of the Czar’s Dilemma is that rational behavior—in this case the rational behavior of farmers seeking to maximize their profits—can lead to the very best possible outcome,
Note:MORALE ROVESCIATA RISPETTO AL PRIGIONIERO

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13 The Czar’s Other Dilemma
Note:Tttttttttttt

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allocating the limited supply of natural gas to the various businesses
Note:IL TUO NUOVO COMPITO

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natural gas supply is 20 cubic feet a day
Note:Cccccc

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chicken farms have traditionally used about 10, and steel mills have traditionally used about 10.
Note:Cccccccc

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because of an earthquake, the natural gas supply is about to be cut in half,
Note:EMERGENZA

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how much should you allocate to the steel mills and how much to the chicken farms?
Note:DOMANDA

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5 cubic feet to chicken farms and 5 to steel mills.
Note:SOLUZIONE INTUITIVA...DATI I PRECEDENTI

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Bad idea. As it happens, the steel mills can’t operate without natural gas. But the chicken farms can quite easily dispense with it.
Note:BAD IDEA

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So you should let the steel mills have all the natural gas.
Note:Cccccccv

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The only way to get the solution was to have a rather obscure bit of knowledge about chickens—which
Note:PURTROPPO

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Almost nobody has that obscure bit of knowledge, except for chicken farmers,
Note:Ccccccccc

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So the key point here is that no czar is likely to be able to solve problem 13,
Note:CONCLUSIONE

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let the price system do its work.
Note:ARMA SEGRETA

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the chicken farmers (along with everyone else who has good substitutes available) decide all on their own to switch from natural gas to chicken feed.
Note:QUANDO IL PREZZO CRESCE...

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The chief merit of the price system is that it makes effective use of information that is not available to any single decision maker.
IL MERITO DEL MERCATO