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HL In defense of screen time + BAMBINI DAVANTI ALLO SMARTPHONE: UN DEJA VU

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Riccardo Mariani

Adesso · 

BAMBINI DAVANTI ALLO SMARTPHONE: UN DEJA VU

Pensa a tuo figlio come a un ragazzino sempre alle prese con una realtà alternativa. Qualcosa dove non valgono le normali regole della vita, qualcosa in cui prevale l'immaginazione. Tu ti preoccupi perché questa realtà alternativa è così avvincente che il bambino non riesce a staccare. Perché non vuole uscire più di casa e sembra avere tutto cio' di cui ha bisogno nella sua cameretta. La vita all'aperto non sembra avere attrattive di sorta per lui. Annusi il pericolo e pensi sempre: "devo fare qualcosa, non riesce più a distinguere la finzione dalla realtà!".

Calma, quello che stai vivendo è una condizione ricorrente nella storia. Vengono subito in mente le donne che leggevano i romanzi alla fine del 1800, figurine eternate da Gustave Flaubert in "Madame Bovary".

Avere dei precedenti aiuta a capire il problema e le sue soluzioni.

BJORNJEFFERY.COM

In defense of screen time

As a part of Techfestival 2019 in Copenhagen, Denmark, I was asked to present my thoughts on kids, screens, and technology. In order to get the nuances right, I wrote a speech. You can read it belo…

In defense of screen time

Bj�rn Jeffery

Citation (APA): Jeffery, B. (2019). In defense of screen time [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com

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Parte introduttiva

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 2

In defense of screen time By Björn Jeffery•

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 5

Imagine young people longing for an alternate reality. One where regular rules of life do not apply, and one where your imagination prevails. Their parents worry, because this alternate reality is so compelling that these young people sometimes don’t want to leave it. They don’t want to go outside– they have all they need from their new world. Some of them never want to go back to the realities of everyday life.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 9

in danger of not being able to differentiate between fiction and life”.

Nota - Posizione 10

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 10

Does this sound familiar? I am of course talking about women reading fictional books, in the late 1800s. In particular, reading the novel “Madame Bovary”

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 14

young women as particularly susceptible to the fantasies they find in novels

Nota - Posizione 14

FLAUBERT

Nota - Posizione 14

FLAUBERT

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 17

Concerns about our young are in fact very common, and have been so for hundreds of years.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 18

we can also benefit from learning what the actual outcomes of many of these changes have been.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 21

How can we talk about screen time without knowing what is taking place on the screen?

Nota - Posizione 21

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 22

example of books as it represents a media format that is not only accepted, but almost universally seen as preferable. Books are great.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 24

Is it good that kids read books? Generally speaking, yes,

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 25

any type of book? Not necessarily. You wouldn’t choose “50 Shades of Grey” as a bedtime

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 27

we can conclude that books themselves are neither good nor bad. They can be both. It depends on the context, the reader, the intent– and of course it depends on the book itself.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 30

I’m sure you’ve heard phrases like “No screen time before 2”.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 32

how can we talk about screen time without knowing what is taking place on the screen?

Nota - Posizione 32

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 32

Empathy

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 37

Amy Orben and Andrew Przybylski,

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 42

if social media makes you happy or sad.

Nota - Posizione 42

PRIMA QUESTIONE

Nota - Posizione 42

PRIMA QUESTIONE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 44

99.6% of the variability in adolescent girls’ satisfaction with life had nothing to do with how much they used social media.

Nota - Posizione 45

FELICITÀ

Nota - Posizione 45

FELICITÀ

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 46

It is undoubtedly tough being an adolescent. But this was true long before there were any screens.

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 48

Myopia– being nearsighted– has almost doubled from 1971 and 2008 which in turn can increase risks of vision

Nota - Posizione 49

UN PROBLEMA

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UN PROBLEMA

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 50

We know that nearsightedness has increased, but we do not know why.

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 55

It is easier to listen to an alarmist TV psychologist that– very conveniently– is trying to sell you a book on the topic of screen time.

Nota - Posizione 56

I GENITORI OSTAGGIO...NN SONO SCIENZIATI

Nota - Posizione 56

I GENITORI OSTAGGIO...NN SONO SCIENZIATI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 57

From a strict harm reduction perspective, it would be best to make kids wear helmets and protective gear at all times. But it is not practical.

Nota - Posizione 57

LA PRUDENZA? È POCO.PRATICA

Nota - Posizione 57

LA PRUDENZA? È POCO.PRATICA

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 58

By withholding screens from your kids you may be reducing a hypothetical risk, but you are also withholding them from opportunity and potential.

Nota - Posizione 59

I RISCHI

Nota - Posizione 59

I RISCHI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 60

Who should we listen to?

Nota - Posizione 60

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 61

AAP– American Academy of Pediatrics

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 62

they specifically call out “high-quality programming/ apps” which moves the conversation from looking at the screen itself, towards looking at the activity which is taking place.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 64

say the following: “Co-view or co-play with your children, and find other activities to do together that are healthy for the body and mind

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 71

In 1938, St Petersburg Times

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 72

“Withdraw all encouragement relating to the reading of books. Reduce the number available. Act so as to make reading inconvenient except for the set time”.

Nota - Posizione 73

1938

Nota - Posizione 73

1938

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 75

Their concern is the amount of reading, not the reading itself. It is becoming too much,

Nota - Posizione 76

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 76

It isn’t healthy to only read novels all day.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 81

discouraging reading in 1938 may not have been a great piece of advice.

Nota - Posizione 82

TUTTAVIA

Nota - Posizione 82

TUTTAVIA

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 83

Where will this thing people call “screen time” take our kids in the future?

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 85

Fortnite looks like a game where people shoot each other and do weird dances to celebrate it. But Fortnite is also an online social club where leadership and teamwork develop.

Nota - Posizione 86

DOPPIA FACCIA

Nota - Posizione 86

DOPPIA FACCIA

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 87

When was the last time you collaborated with a global group of people, in real-time, towards a common goal?

Nota - Posizione 87

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 89

Minecraft is similar.

Nota - Posizione 92

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 92

Togetherness

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 92

For me, I think the future of screen time is togetherness.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 92

global collaboration is seamless and enriching.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 94

Four suggestions

Nota - Posizione 94

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 97

1. What matters is what is on the screen, not the screen itself.

Nota - Posizione 97

1

Nota - Posizione 97

1

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 100

2. Consider the context

Nota - Posizione 100

2

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2

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 100

How are your kids playing? Are they doing it together with others– siblings, friends, online friends?

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 104

3. Encourage variety

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3

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3

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 107

4. Treat the screen like you would anything else

Nota - Posizione 107

4

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4

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 107

When I was the CEO of Toca Boca and tried to explain my job to people, almost everyone said “ah, you mean educational apps”. It was precluded that if you make apps for children, their primary purpose must be education.

Nota - Posizione 109

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 110

What if all food you served your kids had to have a specific nutritional formula?

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 112

Childhood is more than just education. But if you want apps to be educational, you can find plenty that are really great.

Nota - Posizione 112

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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 113

The screen is just like life in general– don’t treat it any differently.

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ch 4 Lo smartphone e la salute mentale dei giovani

Chapter 4 Insecure: The New Mental Health Crisis - iGen: Why Today's Super-Connected Kids Are Growing Up Less Rebellious, More Tolerant, Less Happy--and Completely Unprepared for Adulthood--and What That Means for the Rest of Us

Jean M. Twenge

Note:4@@@@@@

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unexplainable, occasional sadness
Note:TRISTEZZA

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Ilaf isn’t always sure why she feels depressed, and she struggles to explain her feelings to her parents.
Note:CAUSE MISTERIOSE

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iGen’ers look so happy online, making goofy faces on Snapchat and smiling in their pictures on Instagram. But dig deeper, and reality is not so comforting.
Note:ALLEGRI SOLO ONLINE

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The Internet—and society in general—promotes a relentless positivity
Note:PENSA POSITIVO

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Individualism also encourages people to feel good about themselves—
Note:LA CULTURA INDIVIDUALISTA

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iGen’ers score lower in narcissism and have lower expectations,
Note:MENO NARCISISTI E MENO AMBIZIOSI

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Just as iGen entered the samples, teen happiness started to wane
Note:GLI INFELICI

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The first serious rumbles of the oncoming crash in iGen’ers’ outlook appear in their answers to questions asking whether they are satisfied with themselves
Note:SEI SODDISFATTO DI TE?

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Percentage of 12th graders who are satisfied with their lives as a whole and with themselves. Monitoring the Future, 1976–2015.
Note:GRAFICO

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Left Out and Lonely
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she hadn’t been invited to. “I felt like I was the only one not there,”
Note:IL DRAMMA DI NN ESSERE INVITATI AL COMPLEANNO

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“. . . I was thinking, they’re having a good time without me.
Note:ccccccc

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iGen has a specific term for this: FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
Note:FOMO

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they are lonelier than they were just five years ago.
Note:SENSO DI SOLITUDINE

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feeling left out has reached all-time highs.
Note:ESCLUSI

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Such large changes over a short period of time are unusual, suggesting a specific cause with a big impact. Given the timing, smartphones are the most likely culprits,
Note:UNA CAUSA.... L IPOTESI SMARTPHONE

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replacing in-person social interaction.
Note:TEMPO SPESO DA SOLI

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teens who spend more time on social media also spend more time with their friends in person—
Note:PIÙ SOCIAL PIÙ COMPAGNIA

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When teens as a group spend more time on screens and less time on in-person social interaction, loneliness will increase on average.

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It’s possible that loneliness causes smartphone use instead of smartphone use causing loneliness, but the abrupt increase in loneliness makes this alternative much less likely.
Note:NESSO INVERSO POCO PROBABILE

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Although the trend toward feeling left out appears among both boys and girls, the increase was especially steep among girls
Note:RAGAZZE PIÙ VULNERABILI

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Afraid You’re Gonna Live: Depression
Note:ttttttt

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“They all looked so damn happy to me. Why couldn’t I look like that?”
Note:IL PENSIERO RETROSTANTE

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the constant thrum of social media and texting, has created an emotionally fragile generation prone to depression.
Note:FRAGILI

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The data from these surveys are stark: teens’ depressive symptoms have skyrocketed in a very short period of time.
Note:IMPENNATA DEPRESSIONE

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many people post only their successes online, so many teens don’t realize that their friends fail at things, too.
Note:IL RUOLO DEI SOCIAL

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If they spent more time with their friends in person, they might realize that they are not the only ones making mistakes.
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the patina of positivity on social media covering the ugly underbelly of reality.
Note:PATINA DI OTTIMISMO

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Instagram posts, like ‘My life is so great.’
Note:GOOD LIFE

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More teens in recent years agree with the depressing statement “My life is not useful,”
Note:ASSENZA DI SENSO

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Just as with the rise in loneliness, girls have borne the brunt of the rise in depressive symptoms.
Note:RAGAZZE PIÙ VULNERABILI

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spending more time on social media and less time on in-person social interaction is correlated with depression.
Note:IL RAPPORTO TEMPO SUI SOCIAL/TEMPO INSIEME È PREDITTIVO DELLA DEPRESSIONE

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Could the Great Recession of 2007–2009 be the outside factor? It did come on suddenly, but the timing is wrong. Unemployment, one of the best indicators of how the economy is affecting real people, peaked in 2010 and then declined, exactly the opposite pattern from depression, which was stable until 2012 and then increased.
Note:IL TIMING DELLA CRISI

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Why might smartphones cause depression? For one thing, not getting a reply to your text or social media message has a high potential for causing anxiety—
Note:INTERVENTI SENZA RISPOSTA

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The emphasis on perfect selfies has amplified body image issues for girls, who often chase likes by taking hundreds of pictures to get just the right one but still end up feeling as though they’ve fallen short.
Note:FOTO E FISICO... RAGAZZE MINACCIATE

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“Every day it’s like you have to wake up and put on a mask and try to be somebody else instead of being yourself,
Note:VIVERE IN PUBBLICO E VIVERE IPOCRITAMENTE

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sexy photo will get lots of likes, but it also invites slut shaming.

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SEXY

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An Epidemic of Anguish: Major Depressive Disorder, Self-Harm, and Suicide
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scared to grow up, terrified that she didn’t know exactly what would happen next.
Note:PAURA DEL FUTURO

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The screening test shows a shocking rise in depression in a short period of time: 56% more teens experienced a major depressive episode in 2015 than in 2010
Note:DALLE INTERVISTE AI DATI CLINICI

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clinically diagnosable major depression.
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the increase in major depressive episodes is far steeper among girls,
Note:GORLS

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Depressed teens are more likely to self-injure, such as through cutting.
Note:TAGLI

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Major depression, especially if it’s severe, is also the primary risk factor for suicide.
Note:SUICIDI

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Suicide, a carefully tracked behavior unaffected by the possible irregularities of self-report surveys, is the most extreme and sadly objective outcome of depression.
Note:AFFIDABILITÁ DEI SUICIDI

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The rise in suicide is more pronounced for girls.
Note:GIRL

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It’s also surprising, because more Americans now take antidepressants
Note:NONOSTANTE GLI ANTIDEPRESSIVI

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Why the Rise in Mental Health Issues?
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An article in The Atlantic blamed teen mental health issues almost exclusively on academic pressure.
Note:CAUSE... PRESSIONI ACCADEMICHE?

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But one good indicator of academic pressure is the amount of time students spend on homework, and as we saw in chapter 1, time spent doing homework is less or about the same as in previous decades, with little change between 2012 and 2016, the years when depression skyrocketed.
Note:NO... TEMPO SPESO X I COMPITI

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Time spent on exercise and sports is linked to less depression, but it didn’t change much since 2012, so they fail test number two, too.
Note:ATTIVITÀ FISICA... IRRILEVANTE

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new-media screen time (such as electronic devices and social media) is linked to mental health issues and/or unhappiness, and it rose at the same time.
Note:ELEMENTI CORRELATI: SCREENING NOTOZIE A VODEO... RELAZIONI PERSONALI

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in-person social interaction and print media are linked to less unhappiness and less depression,
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Another possibility is that iGen’ers are unprepared for adolescence and early adulthood due to their lack of independence.
Note:INDIPENDENZA

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Students whose parents displayed those characteristics (often known as “helicopter parents”) had lower psychological well-being and were more likely to have been prescribed medication for anxiety and depression.
Note:DEPRESSIONE DA ELICOTTERO

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Stealing Sleep
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Just before you go to bed, you check on your teen. It looks as though her light is off, but you’re not sure. Then you see it: the faint blue light of her phone as she looks at it in bed.
Note:CAMERETTE ILLUMINATE DAI VIDEO

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Smartphone use may have decreased teens’ sleep time: more teens now sleep less than seven hours most nights (see Figure 4.12). Sleep experts say that teens should get about nine hours
Note:7 ORE ADI SONNO

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Electronic devices and social media seem to be unique in their effect on sleep compared to older forms of media. Teens who read books and magazines more often are actually less likely to be sleep deprived—either reading puts them to sleep, or they can put the book down at bedtime. TV time is barely related to sleep time.
Note:NEW MEDIA E SONNO

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Other activities that take up a lot of time, such as homework and working for pay, also increase the risk of missing out on sleep.
Note:PENALIZZAZIONE

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Sleep deprivation is linked to myriad issues, including compromised thinking and reasoning, susceptibility to illness, increased weight gain, and high blood pressure. Sleep deprivation also has a significant effect on mood: people who don’t sleep enough are prone to depression and anxiety.
Note:ALTRE CONSEGUENZE

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Intriguing new research shows that the blue light emitted by electronic devices tells our brains it’s still daytime, which makes the brain take longer to fall asleep.
Note:SEMPRE ATTIVI SEMPRE IN PISTA

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What Can We Do?
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the case highlights a nationwide problem: the often inadequate resources for mental health assistance on college campuses.
Note:DEFICIT

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High school students and their parents are already seeking help for psychological issues at an unprecedented rate.
Note:TUTTI DALLO BPSICOLOGO

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The bigger problem will occur if young people don’t seek help.
Note:I PIÙ IN PERICOLO

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Seeing a therapist is still taboo. . . . Nobody likes the idea of putting a label on what can so easily be written off as some form of insecurity—nobody wants to be diagnosed.”
Note:TABÙ

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the abrupt rise in mental health issues strongly suggests that genetics is not the whole story.
Note:GENETICA

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Among those predisposed to depression, only those who experience certain environments will actually become depressed.
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Fifteen Matters of Life and Death - More Sex Is Safer Sex: The Unconventional Wisdom of Economics by Steven E. Landsburg

Fifteen Matters of Life and Death - More Sex Is Safer Sex: The Unconventional Wisdom of Economics by Steven E. Landsburg - #ventilatoripertutti #schellingavermicino #valoredellavitaevaloririschiosi #tuttiigiorniprezziamolavita #cellulariallaguida #blackstonetroppoprodigo #fareunastimadadoveiniziare

Fifteen Matters of Life and DeathRead more at location 2540

Note: Aiutare in modo empatico non significa dare cose anziché denaro ma "dare". Posso aiutare l'accaldato dandogli un ventilatore o dei soldi (taglio tasse). Solo la seconda soluzione è rispettosa delle volontà del prossimo Quel che non si vede: alfredino e il paracari di Shelling. La tassazione empatica come tassazione irrazionale Vite monetizzate. La tassa x scampare King Kong Edit

Note: 15@@@@@@@@@@@@@ Edit

There is room for a great deal of disagreement about how much assistance rich people should give to poor people, either voluntarily or through the tax system. But surely whatever we do spend should be spent in the ways that are most helpful. Therefore there’s no use arguing that the real trade-off should not be ventilators versus milk but ventilators versus tax cuts, or ventilators versus foreign wars.Read more at location 2565

Note: VENTILATORI PER TUTTI! Edit

The bloggers at Daily Kos would have us guarantee ventilator support to everyone who can’t afford it. For the same cost, we could give each of those people a choice between ventilator insurance or $75 cash.Read more at location 2569

Note: CASH O VENTILATORI? Edit

Remarkably, Professor Frank admits that most poor people would prefer the milk and eggs, but still argues for the ventilators on the grounds that it would make the rest of us feel better!Read more at location 2583

Note: VENTILARE LA COSCIENZA DEL DONATORE Edit

But ignoring other people’s needs to make yourself feel better is the very opposite of sympathy and empathy.Read more at location 2584

Add a note

Many years ago, the Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling asked why communities will sometimes spend millions to save the life of a known victim—say, a trapped miner—but refuse to spend even, say, $200,000 on a highway guardrail that would save an average of one life per year. His answer was to distinguish between “identified lives”—like the trapped miner, or Tirhas Habtegiris—and “statistical lives,” like the unknown beneficiaries of the guardrail. Robert Frank embraces this distinction. For some reason, we are supposed to care more about identified lives than statistical lives,Read more at location 2587

Note: IL PARACARRO DI SCHELLING Edit

Besides being incoherent, the distinction between a statistical and an identified life is morally obtuse.Read more at location 2601

Add a note

The identified/statistical life approach says, in essence, that I should prefer three deaths to one death as long as the three victims happen to be invisible.Read more at location 2613

Note: VISIBILE INVISIBILE Edit

If I could save you $5 in taxes by releasing a toxic chemical that might kill you—say with a probability of one in a million—I wouldn’t do it. If I could save you $20 in taxes by releasing the same chemical, I probably would.Read more at location 2616

Note: VALORE DELLA VITA Edit

I know this because economists have made a habit of observing people’s choices—for example, the size of the pay cuts they’ll accept to move into safer jobs. On that basis, Harvard Law professor Kip Viscusi estimates that the average American will pay about $5 to steer clear of a one-in-a-million chance of being killed. For blue-collar women, it’s closer to $7, and for blue-collar men it’s even higher.Read more at location 2620

Note: LAVORI RISCHIOSI Edit

Your life is probably worth somewhere between five and ten million dollars.Read more at location 2628

Add a note

If King Kong is likely to kill 300 Americans out of 300 million, there’s a one in a million chance you’ll be a victim. If we can stop him with $300 million worth of ape repellent—that is, $1 million per life—your share of the tax bill comes to about a dollar. That’s a good deal. But if instead it costs $30 billion to stop Kong, then it’s better to let him wreak havoc. Your share of that $30 billion would be $100, and we know from Professor Viscusi’s studies that almost nobody wants to pay that much to avoid a one-in-a-million chance of death.Read more at location 2631

Note: FERMARE KING KONG Edit

Cell-phone use increases your accident risk by almost 400 percent. But so what?Read more at location 2643

Note: CELLULARE ALLA GUIDA Edit

Just getting behind the wheel (as opposed to staying home in bed) multiplies your accident risk by far more than 400 percent, but so far the Tappets have not proposed to outlaw driving.Read more at location 2645

Note: INCIDENTI Edit

The analysis is courtesy of Brookings Institution economists Robert Hahn, Paul Tetlock, and Jason Burnett, who reckon that drivers’ cell phones are indeed deadly but nevertheless (on balance) a good thing.Read more at location 2651

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The researchers estimate that in one year, driver use of cell phones caused about 300 fatalities, 38,000 nonfatal injuries, and 200,000 damaged vehicles.Read more at location 2657

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the price is $6.6 million, a widely used standard based on Kip Viscusi’s analysis.Read more at location 2662

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You implicitly put a dollar value on human lives every time you buy a candy bar with funds that could instead have been donated to the local fire department. No matter who you are, there is a limit to what you’re willing to spend to save lives;Read more at location 2664

Note: OGNI GIORNO QUANTIFICHIAMO LA VITA Edit

the only question is whether you’re willing to think honestly about what that limit is.Read more at location 2666

Note: ONESTÀ Edit

Pricing the fatalities at $6.6 million each, and adding in the costs of injuries and vehicle damage, Mr. Hahn and his colleagues estimate that in one year, cell-phone use by drivers caused $4.6 billion worth of damage.Read more at location 2669

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the value of a cell-phone call is equal to what you’re willing to pay for it, minus what you actually pay for it. Willingness to pay is estimated from demand studies (factoring in the truism that some calls are worth more than others). Actual charges, of course, come from real-life cell-phone bills.Read more at location 2672

Note: VALORE DELLA CHIAMATA: IL PIACRRE CHE MI DÀ (QUANTO SAREI DISPOSTO A PAGARE) MENO QUANTO PAGO. Edit

in one year, cell-phone calls made by drivers had a total value of $25 billion. That $25 billion benefit beats the $4.6 billion cost,Read more at location 2675

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Actually, I don’t buy it, for a variety of reasons. First, drivers make a lot of calls that could easily wait for the next rest stop.Read more at location 2676

Note: DUBBI Edit

Moreover, Hahn et al missed a potentially important factor on the cost side: they counted fatalities, they counted injuries, they counted property damage, but they failed to account for the inconvenience to people who choose not to drive because cell phones have made driving more dangerous.Read more at location 2680

Note: E CHI RINUNCIA A GUIDARE? Edit

Over two centuries ago, a lawyer named William Blackstone declared that it’s better for ten guilty persons to escape than for one innocent to suffer. Why ten, as opposed to, say, twelve or eight?Read more at location 2691

Note: LO STANDARD DI BLACKSTONE Edit

for two centuries, legal scholars have cited Blackstone’s refusal to think and mistaken it for an example of a thought.Read more at location 2693

Note: LIQUIDARE IL TRADE OFF Edit

The cost (to you) of a false conviction is that you might be the unlucky innocent who goes to jail. The cost (to you) of a false acquittal is that you might cross paths with the criminal we just freed (or with some other criminal who’s feeling emboldened by all these false acquittals). A “ten guilty men” standard saddles you with one bundle of risks; a “five guilty men” or a “hundred guilty men” standard saddles you with another. The right standard is the one that saddles you with the burden you prefer (where “prefer” means “dislike the least”).Read more at location 2699

Note: UNO STANDARD EQUO Edit

Ten false acquittals in murder cases give you ten chances to cross paths with a newly released murderer. One false conviction gives you one chance of landing (at worst) in the electric chair. I’m not so fond of either prospect, but given a choice, I’ll take the latter.Read more at location 2704

Note: BLACKSTONE TROPPO PRODIGO? Edit

I expect we’d all be happier with, say, a “three guilty men” standard: if we’re 75 percent sure you did the crime, you do the time.Read more at location 2706

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The cutoff for reasonable doubt should be at the odds we find just barely acceptable.Read more at location 2709

Note: RAGIONEVOLE DUBBIO Edit

If you never miss a plane, you’re spending too much time in airports; if you never convict an innocent, you’re not convicting enough of the guilty.Read more at location 2715

Note: TRADE OFF Edit

But I am substantially less comfortable with it in a world where policemen (and others) sometimes manufacture evidence against peopleRead more at location 2717

Note: POLIZIA CORROTTA Edit

That makes me want to nudge the cutoff up a bit, probably to something very like Blackstone’s ninety-something-percent standard.Read more at location 2718

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If we execute murderers, why not execute the people who write computer worms? According to the math on the back of my envelope, it would be a better investment.Read more at location 2720

Note: PENA DI MORTE X CHI INFETTA I PC Edit

First, what’s the value of executing a murderer? A high-end estimate is that each execution deters about ten murdersRead more at location 2722

Note: I HENEGIVI DI UCCIDERE UN ASSASSINO Edit

So call it ten lives saved, with a value—again a high-end estimate—of about $10 million apiece. Then the benefit of executing a murderer is roughly ten times $10 million, or $100 million—andRead more at location 2723

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It’s estimated that vermiscripting and related activities cost the world about $50 billion a year.Read more at location 2727

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There are a lot of reasons to believe the number is seriously overblown, not least because victimized firms tend to exaggerate the damage when they’re making insurance claims.Read more at location 2729

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Given that $50 billion figure, all we’d have to do is deter just one-fifth of one percent of all vermiscripting for just one year in order to gain the same $100 million benefit we get from executing a killer.Read more at location 2731

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Executing the murderer means giving you the safety. Executing the vermiscriptor means giving you the cash. You’d rather have the cash than the safety. Ergo, executing the vermiscriptor is the better policy.Read more at location 2755

Note: MEGLIO IL CASH CHE L ASSICURAZIONE Edit

There’s at least one exceptionRead more at location 2757

Note: ALTRRNATIVA Edit

If we can effectively deter malicious hackers by cutting off their supply of Twinkies or crippling their EverQuest avatars, then there’s no need to fry them.