1 The Century of Whiteshift
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a set of myths and symbols to which people are attached:
Note:BIANCHITUDINE
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‘What does it mean to be white British’ in an age of ethnic change.
Note:OGGETO DELL ANALISI
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whites can no more hold back demography than Canute could command the tides.
Note:DESTINO
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we’re becoming mixed-race. This is not speculation, but is virtually guaranteed by the rates of intermarriage occurring in many Western countries.
Note:MIXED...ANCHE SENZA MIGRAZIONE
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in a century those of mixed-race will be the largest group in countries like Britain and America.
Note:MAGGIORANZA
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immigrants or members of anti-modern religious groups like the ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Note:GLI UNICI PURI
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Many people desire roots, value tradition and wish to maintain continuity with ancestors who have occupied a historic territory.
Note:IL PROBLEMA
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a process by which white majorities absorb an admixture of different peoples through intermarriage, but remain oriented around existing myths of descent, symbols and traditions.
Note:WHITESHIFT
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most people will probably airbrush their polyglot lineage out of the story to focus on their European provenance.
Note:NASCONDERE LE TRACCE
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the brain simplifies sense-perceptions into a unified whole, screening out a great deal of information.
Note:GESTALT PSYCHOLOGY
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process of selective forgetting
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Most Turks trace their origins to Central Asia, neglecting their Byzantine Christian ancestors and the large number of immigrants who arrived from far-flung parts of the Ottoman Empire.
Note:ESEMPI
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the declining white share of the population in Western countries.
Note:ALTRO EFFETTO WHITESHIFT
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Whites are already a minority in most major cities of North America. Together with New Zealand, North America is projected to be ‘majority minority’ by 2050,
Note:USA
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white majority concern over immigration is the main cause of the rise of the populist right in the West.
Note:POPULISMO....IDENTITÀ NN ECONOMI
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growing unwillingness to indulge the anti-white ideology of the cultural left. When whites were an overwhelming majority, empirically unsupported generalizations about whites could be brushed off as amusing and mischievous but ultimately harmless. As whites decline, fewer are willing to abide such attacks.
Note:UN EFFETTO DELLA PAURA...QUANDO ERAVAMO MAGGIORANZA CERTE DENIGRAZIONI DELL UOMO BIANCO FATTE A SINISTRA VENIVANO LIQUIDATE CON UN SORRISO...OGGI SUSCITANO RABNIA
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This produces a growing ‘culture wars’ polarization between increasingly insecure white conservatives and energized white liberals.
Note:GUERRE CULTURALI
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‘lyrical left’
Note:QUELLA CHE SATIREGGIA I VALORI BORGHESI
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After the First World War, the cultural left turned against the nation,
Note:CONTRO LA PATRIA
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attack on their own ethnic group, the Anglo-Protestant majority, whom they saw as oppressing European immigrants and enforcing puritanical laws like the prohibition on selling alcohol.
Note:UN ESEMPIO STORICO
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countercultural movement, which I term left-modernism, developed a theory of white ethno-racial oppression.
Note:ANNI SESSANTA
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seeking to consecrate the university campus as a sacred space devoted to the mission of replacing ‘whiteness’ with diversity.
Note:LA MISSIONE DI OGGI
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what Daniel Bell termed the ‘adversary culture’
Note:I CRITICI DEL PROPRIO GRUPPO
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But what happens when the critics become dominant?
Note:UN CASO SINGOLARE
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Instead of reasonable tradeoffs between those who, for example, wanted higher or lower levels of immigration,
Note:SOSTITUZIONE ETNICA
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Ethno-cultural change is occurring at a rapid rate at precisely the time the dominant ideology celebrates a multicultural vision of ever-increasing diversity. To hanker after homogeneity and stability is perceived as narrow-minded and racist by liberals.
Note:LA NS CONDIZIONE
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Cosmopolitanism and what I term ethno-traditional nationalism are both valid worldviews, but each suits a different psychological type. Imposing either on the entire population is a recipe for discontent
Note:L ASPETTO PSICO
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Attempts to re-educate conservative and order-seeking people into cosmopolitanism will, as the psychologist Karen Stenner notes, only generate resistance.
Note:SOLUZIONI SBAGIATE
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what the prescient centrist writer Michael Lind calls ‘beige’ ethnicity, i.e. a racially mixed majority group.
Note:VERSO DEVE ANDIAMO
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We in the West are becoming less like homogeneous Iceland and more like homogeneous mixed-race Turkmenistan. But to get there we’ll be passing through a phase where we’ll move closer to multicultural Guyana or Mauritius.
Note:ANALOGIA
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to enable conservative whites to see a future for themselves in Whiteshift
Note:LA SFIDA
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The Western media was shocked when the frontman of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), Jörg Haider, won 27 per cent of the vote in the late 1990s
Note:LA GRANDE CAVALCATA
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Today’s populist earthquake has little to do with economics.
Note:NO ECO
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As white majorities in the West age and decline, their place is being taken by non-Europeans. This shift pervades the popular imagination across Europe, North America and Australasia.
Note:IMMAGINARIO
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Elites stand helpless as immigration soars to the top of white voters’ agenda.
Note:LA SFIDUCIA
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THE IMPORTANCE OF DATA
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A chorus of analysts have attempted to divine the reasons behind Trump’s victory, the Brexit vote and the post-2015 surge of right-wing populism.
Note:3 EVENTI
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(economic stagnation, racism, distrust in politicians)
Note:I CANDIDATI
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values count far more than economics or geography.
Note:INDAGINE DEL VOTO
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Since minorities and well-educated whites cluster in cities, maps show cities as anti-Trump and the countryside as pro-Trump.
Note:FACCIAMO IL CASO TRUMP
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The proper way to address the problem is to look at whites of similar age, education and other characteristics living in cities and rural areas and compare their voting behaviour. This reveals they back Trump at similar rates.
Note:IL MODO CORRETTO DI PROCDERE
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immigration is less important outside the West because migrants tend to avoid or pass through Eastern European states.
Note:POPULISMO IN OCCIDENTE
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Demography and culture, not economic and political developments, hold the key to understanding the populist moment. Immigration is central. Ethnic change – the size and nature of the immigrant inflow and its capacity to challenge ethnic boundaries – is the story.
Note:IL NOCCIOLO DELLA QUESTIONE
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The real question is not ‘What does it mean to be Swedish in an age of migration?’ but ‘What does it mean to be white Swedish in an age of migration?’
Note:BIANCHITUINE
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WHITE ETHNO-TRADITIONALISM
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ethnic groups are communities that believe they are descended from the same ancestors and differentiate themselves from others through one or more cultural markers: language, racial appearance or religion.
Note:GRUPPO ETNICO
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Ethnic groups, like the Jews, unite around common ancestry, whereas nations – such as Switzerland – can be multi-ethnic.
Note:SVIZZERA
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If you’re white, you may think, ‘I don’t identify as white, only as British.’ This arises because being white in a predominantly white society, like being heterosexual, doesn’t confer much distinctiveness.
Note:LA BOANCHITUDINE FINO A IERI
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If you’re like most white Brits, your ethnicity is hidden at the centre of your national identity.
Note:LATENZA DELLA BIANCHITUDINE
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Ethnic majorities thereby express their ethnic identity as nationalism.
Note:CNFUSIONE COMUNE
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whites signalled their identity with the national flag, not a special white symbol.
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some minorities challenge aspects of the national narrative like empire or Western settlement.
Note:LA SFIDA
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Combined with falling white population share, this raises the visibility of white identity, drawing it out from beneath the shadow of the nation.
Note:LE CONTINUE SFIDE....CONSEGUENZE
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Whiteshift, a transition from an unmixed to a mixed state. This is a process that is in its early stages and will take a century to complete.
Note:ANSIA
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replay of the ethnic divisions that gripped the United States between the late 1880s and 1960s, during which time the Anglo-Protestant majority declined to less than half the total but gradually absorbed Catholic and Jewish immigrants and their children into a reconstituted white majority oriented around a WASP archetype.
Note:IL REPLAY
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This was achieved as immigration slowed and intermarriage overcame ethnic boundaries,
Note:GLI STRUMENTI X IL NUOVO EQUILIBRIO
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In the US, some 30 per cent of Latinos and Asians voted for Trump and many lament the decline of white America.
Note:LE MINORANZE ACCAREZZANO IL SOGNO
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‘whites are under attack in this country’
Note:D ACCORDO ANCHE I LATINOS
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the populist right shows that limiting nationhood to ‘British values’, the American Creed or the French Republican tradition doesn’t address the anxieties of conservative voters.
Note:NAZINE CVICA ED ETNONAZIONE...LA PRIMA NN BASTA..LA PRIMA NN DÀ L IDENTITÀ NECESSRI
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Ethnic nationhood, which restricts citizenship to members of the majority, is clearly a non-starter.
Note:SOLUZIONE UNO
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Ethno-traditional nationalists favour slower immigration in order to permit enough immigrants to voluntarily assimilate into the ethnic majority, maintaining the white ethno-tradition.
Note:SOLUZIONE DUE
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MIGRATION AND ETHNIC GROUPS IN WORLD HISTORY
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Europe is one of three relatively homogeneous world regions, along with North Africa and East Asia. States in these zones often have ethnic majorities of 90 per cent or more,
Note:UN PO DI STORIA
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This reduced cultural diversity by facilitating historic assimilation.
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mountainous places such as New Guinea or the Caucasus impeded these processes and thus are extremely diverse.
Note:CONTRALTARE
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As long as migrants assimilate, ethnic boundaries persist in the face of immigration.
Note:EBREI E GRECI ESISTONO DA MILLENNI CON IMPUT GENETICI TRA I PIÙ VARI
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Outsiders have been absorbed over time, but the key boundary markers – of religion in the Jewish case and language for the Greeks – have endured.
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I contend that today’s white majorities are likely to successfully absorb minority populations while their core myths and boundary symbols endure.
Note:TESI....CONTRO L OCCIDENTE FA DI PIÙ UN DE MASI CHE LA SOSTITUZIONE ETNICA
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This will involve a change in the physical appearance of the median Westerner,
Note:TUTTAVIA
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WHY NOW?
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Population change – demography – lies at the heart of the story.
Note:XCHÈ OGGI?
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It took from the Dawn of Man until 1804 to reach 1 billion. We hit 3 billion in 1960. Now 7.5 billion of us share the planet.
Note:BIG PICTURE PLANETARIA
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Europe’s transition began around 1750 and lasted until about 1950.
Note:TRANSIZIONE
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European boom had a smaller impact on global population. Take one of Skirbekk’s comparisons, Denmark and Guatemala.
Note:LE MEDICINE NN ERANO QUELLE DI OGGI AL PICCO NASCITE EUROPEE
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In Northern Ireland, for instance, Protestants entered the demographic transition sixty to eighty years before Catholics. That meant Catholic birth rates were higher than Protestant ones for decades, which is why the Catholic share of Northern Ireland increased from 35 per cent in 1965 to close to 50 per cent today. Since voting in Northern Ireland largely takes place on ethnic lines, this had serious political ramifications, which played a part in the violence
Note:ALTRO ESEMPIO
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In 1950 there were 3.5 Europeans and North Americans for every African. The UN’s medium projection tells us that by 2050 there will be two Africans for every Westerner, and four Africans per Westerner in 2100.
Note:RAPPORTI
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Fewer mothers mean fewer kids, which in turn means fewer mothers, and so on. Like reverse compound interest, population decline accelerates logarithmically.
Note:PROCESSO IPERBOLICO
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demography is the most predictive of the social sciences because the fifty-somethings of fifty years from now have already been born.
Note:IL POTENZIALE DELLA SCIENZA
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Demand for labour to staff hospitals and manual jobs and pay the taxes needed to meet growing pension bills will exert a powerful migratory pull.
Note:ECONOMIA
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International migration has a long history: the share of the world’s people living in a different country from the one they were born in has risen only modestly since 1960. But there has been a big rise in the number of people moving from the global South to Europe and North America.
Note:CFR COL PASSATO....UGUAGL E DIFFERENZE
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In East Asia, automation and guest worker programmes drawing on South-East Asian labour are ensuring that the region’s demographic deficit will not produce multicultural nation-states.
Note:SOLUZIONI ALTEENATIVE
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This difference, I would argue, largely explains why right-wing populism has not reared, and will not rear, its head in Japan or Korea.
Note:POPULISMO ASIATICO
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Japan’s foreign-born share is 1.5 per cent, Korea’s 3.4, a fraction of the 10–20 per cent we typically find in the West. In addition, many who reside in Asia lack citizenship.
Note:ESEMPI
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The decline of inter-state warfare since 1945, of organized religion since the 1960s and of communism since 1989 is opening more space for ethnic politics to emerge.
Note:ALTRE CAUSE DEL FENOMENO...OLTRE LA DEMOGRAF
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In our more peaceful, post-ideological, demographically turbulent world, migration-led ethnic change is altering the basis of politics from class to ethnicity.
Note:DALLA CLASSE ALL ETNIA
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FIGHT, REPRESS, FLEE OR JOIN
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Whites can fight ethnic change by voting for right-wing populists
Note:PRIMA REAZIONE POSSIBILE AL FENOMENO
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They may repress anxieties in the name of ‘politically correct’ anti-racism,
Note:SECONDA
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Many opt to flee by avoiding diverse neighbourhoods, schools and social networks.
Note:TEEZA
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other whites may choose to join the newcomers, first in friendship, subsequently in marriage.
Note:QUARTA
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Fight
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rising diversity triggers two responses: conservatism and authoritarianism.
Note:DUE FORME
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A precedent can be found in the anti-immigration agitation of Protestant America in the mid-nineteenth century. The Irish famine and its aftermath saw over a million largely Catholic Irish immigrants move to America,
Note:UN PRECEDENTE
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Repress
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repress ethnic instincts in the name of anti-racism.
Note:PROCLAMI
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Tribalism is also something we can repress, and this repression of instincts may have made evolutionary sense.
Note:NGARE L ANSIA È ASSURDO
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hardwired to be tribal.
Note:HAIDT
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Those who repressed their tribalism to adapt to these larger units may have been able to pass their genes on more effectively.
Note:MA LA SELEZIONE FILTRA ANCHE L APERTURA
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Religion evolved to permit cooperation in larger units.31 Our predisposition towards religion, morality and reputation – all of which can transcend the tribe – reflects our adaptation to larger social units.
Note:UNO STRUMENTO
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Today what we increasingly see in the West is a battle between the ‘tribal’ populist right and the ‘religious’ anti-racist left.
Note:IL CNFRONTO OGGI
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Left-Modernism
Note:Tttttttt RELIGIOSITÀ DI SINISTRA
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Daniel Bell, used the term modernism to describe the spirit of anti-traditionalism which emerged in Western high culture between 1880 and 1930.
Note:FONTI
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Cosmopolitanism was its guiding ethos. Unlike socialism or fascism, this left-wing modernism meshed nicely with capitalism and globalization.
Note:IL MATRIMONIO
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The left-modernist sensibility spread from a small elite to a much wider section of middle-class society in the 1960s with the rise of television and growth of universities, taking over as the dominant sensibility of the high culture.
Note:LA PARABOLA...MORALISMO E IMPERIALISMO
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seeking not merely to persuade but to institutionalize itself in law and policy, altering the basis of liberalism from tolerating to mandating diversity.
Note:Cccccc
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Upsurges of left-modernist fundamentalism became a feature of campus life in the mid-1960s and waxed in the late 1980s and early 1990s as well as in the period since 2013.
Note:SVILUPPO SUCCESSIVO
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importantly, left-modernism laid the basis for a new moral order – a redefinition of sacred and deviant – which pushed immigration restriction beyond the pale,
Note:IL NUOVO VANGELO
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If someone doesn’t have a taste for Marmite, asking them to celebrate it is a coercive form of positive liberalism with no roots in the Western legal tradition.
Note:OLTRE BERLIN
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By the 2010s, the populist right was challenging proscriptions on anti-Muslim sentiment, endangering the religious liberty of conservative Muslims.
Note:L ATTACCO PIÙ VIOLENTO AL MULTICULTI
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war between white ethno-traditionalism and anti-racist moralism
Note:GREAT DIVIDE***IL MODERNISMO PROGRESSISTAUno spettro si aggirtas per l’occidente, è quello del “modernismo progressista” (MP). Il “modernista progressista” gode nel criticare il suo gruppo di appartenenza, nel tempo ha sviluppato una sua visione storica imperniata sull’oppressione etno-razziale dei bianchi. Cosa succede quando un tipo del genere da minoranza diventa predominante? Tutto si trasforma in guerra culturale. Invece di compromessi ragionevoli tra coloro che, ad esempio, vogliono livelli di immigrazione più alti o più bassi, la battaglia è tra razzisti e anti-razzisti. Schierarsi per l’omogeneità e la stabilità etnica non è percepito come un’opzione politica ma come una visione ristretta ed escludente. Tutto è venato dal moralismo pseudoreligioso. Il MP ha radici nel passato, incarna uno spirito di anti-tradizionalismo che è emerso nella cultura occidentale tra il 1880 e il 1930. Il cosmopolitismo è da sempre la sua filosofia guida. Diversamente dal socialismo o dal fascismo, questo modernismo di sinistra si adattava bene al capitalismo e alla globalizzazione. Negli anni sessanta, la sensibilità MP si è estesa da una piccola élite a una parte molto più ampia della società borghese grazie alla diffusione della TV e il crescente ruolo delle università, assumendo il ruolo di sensibilità dominante nella cultura alta. Dopo questo periodo di diffusione MP cerca non solo di persuadere, ma di istituzionalizzarsi, alterando le basi del liberalismo e passando da una generica tolleranza della diversità ad una sua imposizione. Se qualcuno non ama il kebab, il nuovo ordine morale gli chiederà di celebrarlo comunque, o come minimo di silenziare la sua avversione. L’atteggiamento MP si è lentamente trasformato in una forma coercitiva di liberalismo senza radici nella tradizione giuridica occidentale. MP ha gettato le basi per un nuovo ordine morale - una ridefinizione del sacro e del perverso - che ha bollato la restrizione dell'immigrazione ad atto malvagio e razzista. Negli USA il modernista cerca di consacrare i campus universitari a spazio dedicato alla cura meticolosa della diversità coercitiva. A partire dal 2010, la destra populista ha per la prima volta sfidato esplicitamente i tabù sul sentimento anti-musulmano, mettendo in pericolo la libertà religiosa dei musulmani conservatori. il conflitto si è poi esteso in altre materie, a partire dai problemi migratori. Oggi in molti paesi la battaglia politica è essenzialmente una guerra tra etno-tradizionalismo bianco e moralismo antirazzista.
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French people who oppose immigration won’t vote for the Front National because they see it as a racist party.
Note:IL TRIBALISMO NN È QIESTIONE DI DESTRA
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The fact Trump openly talked about building a wall and banning Muslims and still won shifted the so-called ‘Overton Window’ of acceptable political ideas within the right-wing media. This weakened the anti-racist taboo among American conservatives
Note:OVERTONE...
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Flee or Join?
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if voting for the populist right is ‘voice’, a way of combating change, white ‘exit’ consists of withdrawal into white residential areas or social networks.
Note:DI FATTO
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Many whites remain in diverse urban and suburban zones, and intermarriage is increasingly common.
Note:MA QUESTO NN È TUTTO
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In the Netherlands, Canada and Britain, around half the Afro-Caribbean population marries out.
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THE FUTURE OF WHITE MAJORITIES
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Cultural tradition, not genes, tells us which markers matter and which don’t.
Note:I NUOVI GRUPPI
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I’m a good example as someone who is a quarter Latino and a quarter Chinese but is considered white by most people, whereas some of my relatives with the same mixture are seen as Hispanic. Appearance plays a central part in this even if race isn’t ‘real’:
Note:UN BUON ESEMPIO
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The paintings in the Uffizi, carvings on Mount Rushmore, statues in Pall Mall and faces in Hollywood classics preserve a white self-image which defines the ethnic majority. The hybridized whites of the future will need to forge connections back to these images, and tell a story which helps them navigate their ethnic past.
Note:ARMONIZARS COL PASSATO
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Could genetic engineering permit hybridized whites to ‘whiten’ themselves, much as Latin American elites have tended to do through selective marriage?
Note:VOGLIA DEL MITO BIANCO
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The Amish, ultra-Orthodox Jews, Orthodox Dutch Calvinists, Hutterites, Finnish Laestadian Lutherans, Quiverfull Calvinists and Mormons will be a much bigger demographic force in a century than they are now. Already, the ultra-Orthodox are a third of Jewish-Israeli first-graders and by 2050 will form a majority of observant Jews in America and Britain.
Note:NUOVI PROTAGONISTI
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The main reason large sections of Brooklyn are becoming whiter is because of the rapid growth of the city’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, where women bear an average of six to seven children.
Note:Cccccccccc
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The West cannot simultaneously accept large inflows and maintain culturally neutral immigration policies.
Note:L ERRORE
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Immigration levels could be adjusted in response to concerns based in part on the best indicator of assimilation – intermarriage rates – to balance diversity increases with diversity abatement.
Note:COME REGOLARE L IMMIGRAZIONE
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As my research shows, presenting evidence of intermarriage and assimilation to conservative audiences makes a significant difference in reducing support for right-wing populism.
Note:EFFICACIA
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An unalloyed positive liberalism which insists on the value of diversity is unlikely to survive the populist moment.
Note:UN DESTINO SEGNATO
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Elites who use national and supranational institutions to advance a cosmopolitan vision are eroding conservatives’ trust in liberal institutions.
IL DANNO
