HL CHAPTER 2 IGNORANT, IRRATIONAL, MISINFORMED NATIONALISTS

CHAPTER 2 IGNORANT, IRRATIONAL, MISINFORMED NATIONALISTS
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crosses the street
Note:L INCENTIVO A GUARDAR BENE

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incentive to form beliefs in a rational

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optical illusion.
Note:DUBBI CERVELLOTICI

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conspiracy theory,
Note:COSA CI COSTA CRDERE AI COMPLOTTI?

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chances that an individual’s vote will make any sort of difference
Note:UNO SA CHE IL SUO VOTO NN FARÀ MAI LA DIFDERENZA

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A well-informed vote produces the same results as a badly informed,
Note:I VOTI NN SI PESANO

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irrationality is punished.

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knowledge and rationality do not pay,
Note:IN POLITICA

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We fight unnecessary wars. We implement bad policies that perpetuate poverty. We overregulate drugs or underregulate carbon pollution.
Note:LISTA ERRORI

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Ignorance and apathy
Note:HOBBIT

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bias and zealotry
Note:HOOLIGANS

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WHAT CITIZENS DON’T KNOW
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Philip Converse
Note:L ESPERTO IN IGNORANZA ELETTORALE

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the mean is low and the variance is high.”
Note:DISTRIBUZIONE DELL INFO POLITICA

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Somin,

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35 percent of voters are “know-nothings.”

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SOMIN

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Larry Bartels

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one the best-documented features
Note:SE C È QUALCOSA CHE SAPPIAMO

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Jeffrey Friedman

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academic and journalistic
Note:IL TERMINE DI PARAGONE

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John Ferejohn

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the paucity of information most people possess about politics.”
Note:COSA VEDERE

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congressional candidates in their district.
Note:SEGUONO ESEMPI DI IGNORANZA

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which party controls Congress.

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unaware that Congress had added a prescription drug benefit to Medicare,

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Troubled Asset Relief Program was enacted under George W. Bush rather than Barack Obama.

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how much money is spent on foreign aid,

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In 1964, only a minority of citizens knew that the Soviet Union was not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

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not understand what the Cold War was about.

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how much is spent on social security

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slightly more than half of all Americans knew Al Gore was more liberal than Bush,

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less than half knew that Gore was more supportive of abortion rights,

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worse than a coin flip.
Note:SU QUESTIONI CHIAVE

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voters generally know who the current president is, but they don’t know much more beyond that.
Note:NN DI PIÙ

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nonvoters—adult
Note:I PIÙ IGNORANTI

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the form of a multiple-choice test.
Note:I TEST DI IGNORANZA SOTTOSTIMANO L IGNORANZA

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they usually don’t ask citizens to identify particulars or degrees.
Note:CONSIDERATA CONOSCENZA ANCHE QUELLA RELATIVA

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how much more
Note:ORDINALI SUFFICIENTI

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how much it had decreased.
Note:DEBITO

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they ask easy questions.
Note:STUDI TROPPO FACILI

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easily verifiable facts.
Note:OGGETTO

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You could Google the answer to all these questions in a few minutes.
Note:EPPURE NESSUNO SA

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easy questions is not enough to be well informed about politics.
Note:È LA BASE

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To know whom to vote for, one needs to know more than what candidates stand for,
Note:ESEMPIO

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to assess whether the candidates’ preferred policies would tend to promote
Note:ANDARE OLTRE

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Smith favors free trade, and Colbert favors protectionism.
Note:ESEMPIO

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Friedman and Wilson both want to reduce inner-city crime, but Friedman argues we should end the war on drugs, while Wilson says we need to double down.

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ALTRO ESEMPIO

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need to know about criminology, the economics and sociology of black markets,
Note:COSA OCCORRE SAPERE

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significant social scientific knowledge.
Note:COSA MANCA

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“What voters don’t know would fill a university library.”
Note:MOTTO

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ideology Smith called “mercantilism.”
Note:ESEMPIO DI IGNORANZA ECONOMICA

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the typical American voter more or less accepts mercantilism.
Note:ESITO DELLA BATTAGLIA DI SMITH

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don’t know what the three branches of government are,
Note:ALTRO ESEMPIO

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Americans revere the Constitution, but they don’t know what it says.
Note:IGNORANZA COSTIT

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They just need to know enough to throw the incumbent bastards out when the bastards are doing a bad job.”
Note:OBIEZIONE

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requires a tremendous amount of social scientific knowledge.
Note:SAPERE INDIVIDUARE UN BAD JOB

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how to attribute responsibility
Note:ES DI DIFFICOLTÀ DA SUPERARE

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how stable political ignorance is.
Note:LA COSA PIÚ SORPRENDENTE

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information is cheap
Note:OGGI

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I use it to look at pictures of cats and argue with strangers.”
Note:LO STRUMENTO PER CONOSCERE TUTTO LO SCIBILE UMANO

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better educated than ever before,
Note:OGGI

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remain roughly as ignorant
Note:EPPURE

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MOST VOTERS AREN’T STUPID; THEY JUST DON’T CARE
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Acquiring information has a cost.
Note:PERCHÈ GNORANTI? BASTA LA MICROECONOMIA

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expected benefits of possessing that
Note:MINUSCOLI

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rational ignorance.
Note:FENOMENO

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A vote makes a difference
Note:EVENTO RARISSIMO

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more likely to win Powerball
Note:DIAMOCI ALLE LOTTERIE

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votes have almost zero expected value.
Note:VALORE

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SOME CITIZENS KNOW MUCH MORE THAN OTHERS
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Ignorance is not uniform.

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tremendous variance

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Scott Althaus

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15.6
Note:RISPOSTE ESATTO SU 18 DEI MGLIORI

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2.5
Note:PEGGIORI

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a multiple-choice exam
Note:DI COSA PARLIAMO

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not evenly spread among all demographic groups.
Note:DEMOGRAFIA

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having a college degree,
Note:GIOVA

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the top half of income earners,
Note:GIOVA

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thirty-five and fifty-four,
Note:ETÀ DEI PIÙ INFORMATI

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black,
Note:DISINFORMATI

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being female.
Note:DISINFORMAYE

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INFORMATION CHANGES POLICY PREFERENCES
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Martin Gilens

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invading Iraq in 2003.
Note:EVENTO TESTAT

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torture, protectionism,
Note:ESEMPI DI POLITICHE APPOGGIATI DAGLI GNORANT

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abortion rights

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access to birth control.

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less tolerant of homosexuals

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favor overall less government intervention
Note:I PIÙ INFO

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free trade

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pro-choice.

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offset the deficit and debt.

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less punitive and harsh measures on crime,

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less hawkish on military policy,

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accepting of affirmative action.

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less supportive of prayer in public schools.

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less moralistic in law;

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WHY ISN’T EVERYONE IGNORANT?
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why some people are so well informed.
Note:IL VERO MISTERO

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Hearing more and forgetting less:
Note:PRIMA RAGIONE... LA SCUOLA

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A belief in a moral duty to be informed:
Note:RAGIONE ICA

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Belonging and social class:
Note:RAGIONE CONFORMISTA

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Political geeks:
Note:MOMENTO LUDICO ESIBIZIONISTA

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a nerd, a geek, an infovore.
Note:TIPI CHE ESISTONO

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an incentive to believe whatever their peers and friends believe about politics.
Note:EFFETTO PECORA

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POLITICAL IRRATIONALITY
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most citizens process political information in deeply biased, partisan, motivated ways
Note:UN FATTO ASSODATO DALLA PSICOLOGIA POLITICA

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Milton Lodge and Charles Taber

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Leonie Huddy, David Sears, and Jack Levy

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human brain was designed more for winning arguments and forming coalitions than seeking truth.
Note:L INCONVENIENTE

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Jonathan Haidt

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Argumentative Theory
Note:SPERBER

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reasoning can be epistemically dangerous.
Note:RAGIONARE È XICOLOSO

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Psychologist Drew Westen

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POLITICAL TRIBALISM
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“intergroup bias.”
Note:LEALTÀ

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biased to forgive most transgressions from our own group
Note:SELFINDULGENT

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Henry Tajfel

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Geoffrey Cohen

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people are trying to be faithful

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some people are political fans.55 Sports fans enjoy rooting for a team.
Note:MOLTI HANNO UNA VERA PASSIONE

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People tend to see themselves as being on team

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almost all self-described independent voters are closet partisans;
Note:NO INDIP

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Diana Mutz

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political “fandom” is what motivates
Note:IL TIFO CI MOTIVA

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“cross-cutting political exposure”—exposure to contrary points of view, or talking to people who disagree—strongly decreases the likelihood that a person will vote,
Note:ASCOLTARE CON ATTENZIONE TUTTI CI DEMOTIVA

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consider how beliefs about certain political issues tend to be clustered together,
Note:IL TRIBALISMO CONNETTE ANCHE QUESTIONI DISTINTE

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gun control, global warming,
Note:ES

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minimum wage, gay marriage,

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I can predict with a high degree of reliability what your stance
Note:SE CONOSCO UNA COSA CONOSCO ANCHE L ALTRA

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The issues are logically unrelated.

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pro-choice,

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pro-gun

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Democrats’ beliefs are all true,

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L OPINIONE DEI DEMOCRAT

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why then would Republicans hold the opposite set
Note:RESTA UN DUBBIO

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Republicans would tend to have randomly distributed
Note:SE VANNO ALLA CIECA

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OTHER EXAMPLES OF COGNITIVE BIAS IN POLITICS
Note:Tttttt

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Confirmation bias and disconfirmation bias: We tend to accept evidence that supports our preexisting
Note:CONFEEME

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Dan Kahan

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Availability bias:
Note:DISPONIBILITÀ

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The problem here is that we are terrible at estimating probabilities.
Note:PROB

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Affective contagion and prior attitude effect:
Note:ALTRO BIAS

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Framing effects:
Note:BIAS

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Peer pressure and authority:
Note:BIAS

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WHY POLITICAL IRRATIONALITY IS RATIONAL
Note:Ttttttt

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AT LEAST VOTERS MEAN WELL, SORT OF
Note:Ttttttt

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They overwhelmingly conclude that voters do not vote selfishly.
Note:NO EGO

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Voters generally want to promote the common good
BENE COMUNE

L' ignoranza dell' elettore mediani

http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/polres.doc