11. Self-Locating Beliefs

11. Self-Locating Beliefs
Note:11@@@@@@@@@@

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11.1 The Sleeping Beauty Paradox
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At the beginning of the week, they put a person (“Sleeping Beauty”, as we will call her) to sleep by chemical means. Then they flip a fair coin. If it comes up heads, the scientists wake up Sleeping Beauty on Monday, talk to her briefly, then put her back to sleep, using a drug that causes her to forget
Note:DESCRIZIONE

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If, on the other hand, the coin comes up tails, then the scientists wake up Beauty twice: once on Monday, and again on Tuesday. Each time, the scientists talk to her briefly, then put Beauty back to sleep using the same drug,
Note:Ccccccc

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When the scientists wake Beauty, they ask her one question: “What is your credence that the coin came up heads?”
Note:ccccccccc UN BEL GIORNO

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If she is perfectly rational, what answer should Beauty give?

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Ccccccccccc

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Answer 1:
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Coins have a ½ probability of coming up heads when flipped.
Note:RISPOSTA ELEMENTARE

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Answer 2:
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Suppose that the experiment were repeated with 200 subjects.
Note:100 TESTE 100 CROCI E 300 RISVEGLI. A CHE GRUPO APOARTENGO? AL PIÙ NUMEROSO QUELLO DEI "RISVEGLI CROCE". PUOI ANCHE IMMAGINARE UNA SOLA SB CHE RIPETE L ESPERIMENTO X 200 SETTIMANE E CONSIDETA I SUOI 200 RISVEGLI NOTANDO CHE BEN 200 AVVENGONO IN SEGUITO A UNA CROCE E AI 100 IN SEGUITO A UNA TESTA

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There would then be a total of 300 occasions on which someone was woken up,
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100 wakings in which the coin had come up heads, and it was now Monday 100 wakings in which the coin had come up tails, and it was now Monday 100 wakings in which the coin had come up tails, and it was now Tuesday
Note:Cccccc DETTAGLIO DEI 300 RISVEGLI

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300 wakings, of which you believe roughly 1/3 are “heads wakings”
Note:1/3 VS 2/3

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11.2 The Fine Tuning Argument
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According to many scientists, the conditions required for life to exist are extremely specific.
Note:IL DATO DI PARTENZA

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a number of physical parameters of the universe that must take on values in an extremely narrow range,
Note:LO SPECIFICO

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if the gravitational constant differed by more than 1/1040
Note:Es...1/10 ALLA 40...O TROPPO CALDO O TROPPO FREDDO

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the strength of the strong nuclear force, the strength of the electromagnetic force,
Note:ES DI ALTRI PARAMETRI

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it is very lucky that the universe started with extremely low entropy.
Note:ALTRO ESEMPIO

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the best explanation for the universe’s having such properties is that our universe was designed
Note:PER ALCUNI

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The most popular non-theistic alternative is the Multiple Universes (“Multiverse”)
Note:ALTERNATIVA

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In the many other universes where life is impossible, there just is no one around to notice this fact.
Note:DESERTO

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Does the fine tuning evidence – the fact that the universe has parameters falling within very narrow ranges that are necessary for life to exist – support the existence of multiple universes? If so, does this neutralize whatever reason we would otherwise have for accepting the Design hypothesis?
Note:LE DOMANDE CHE MI PONGO

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11.3 The Doomsday Argument
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How much longer will the human species last?
Note:LA DOMAMDA

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nuclear war.
Note:APOCALISSE 1

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biological weapon
Note:2

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giant asteroid
Note:3

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superintelligent robots
Note:4

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Short-lived Species:
Note:PER SEMPLICITÀ CONSIDERIAMO SOLO DUE CASI...1

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extinct within the next ten thousand years.
Note:Cccccccc

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Long-lived Species:
Note:2

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species will continue for more than ten thousand more years.
Note:Cccccccc

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human beings have existed for at least 50,000 years
Note:PRIMO DATO

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number of humans who have ever existed is surprisingly low, only about 108 billion, of which around 7.4 billion are alive now.
Note:SECONDO

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you are somewhere between the 100 billionth and the 108 billionth human
Note:TU

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that is, your “birth order”
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The probability of finding that one’s birth order is less than 108 billion is greater if one belongs to a short-lived species than it is if one belongs to a long-lived

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the fact that your birth order is less than 108 billion is evidence that you belong to a short-lived species,
Note:POICHÈ RAPPRESENTI LA MEDIA

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the hat contains either ten slips of paper, with the numbers 1 through 10 written on them, or a hundred slips of paper, with the numbers 1 through 100. You know it’s one of those two alternatives,
Note:ANALOGIA...DEVI PESCARE UN NUMERO

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It turns out to be the number 8.
Note:PESCHI...

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what should you think about the contents of the hat?
Note:EVIDENTEMENTE LA PICCOLA

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you are a random person chosen from the human species.
Note:NEL DA...ANCHE ASSUNTI I TASSI DI NATALITÀ IL NUMERO CHE PESCHI È MOLTO BASSO...QUINDI...

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Since your birth order number is relatively small,
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all three issues can be resolved in a similar manner.
Note:TESI SU DA FINE TUNING E SLEEPY

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11.4 The Multiverse : Pro and Con
Note:TttttttttttttDT DESIGN THEORY VS MT MULTIVERSE THEORY

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11.4.1 The “This Universe” Objection
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Imagine that you are scheduled to be executed by a firing squad.
Note:ANALOGIA

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you find yourself still alive.
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this event seems so unlikely that there must be some explanation.

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TUA RIFLESSIONE

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suppose it occurs to you that there might perhaps be a trillion trillion other firing squads elsewhere in the universe.
Note:SUPPOSIZIONE

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Therefore, you conclude (?), you now have good reason to think there actually are all these other firing squads.
Note:LA STRANA CONCLUSIONE

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there is no need to postulate any sort of conspiracy
Note:IN QS CASO

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I take it that this pretty obviously is not good reasoning.
Note:GIUDIZIO

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your evidence is not that at least one person somewhere in the universe has experienced this; your evidence is that you experienced this.
Note:MOTIVAZUONE DEL GIUDIZIO

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what needs to be explained is the fact that you personally survived the firing squad.
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If someone starts up a firing squad on Alpha Centauri, that doesn’t make your firing squad suddenly more likely to miss.
Note:COME SI INFLUENZANO LE PROB

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You are about to flip a coin. What is the probability that it will come up heads? 50%. But wait, here is an additional piece of information: someone in the next room is flipping a coin too. Does that make it more likely that you will flip heads? No. That makes it more likely that at least one of the coins will come up heads, but the probability that this coin will do so remains 50%.
Note:ANALOGIA DELLA FALLACIA

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Champions of the Multiverse appear to be committing the very fallacy that we have just criticized.
Note:TORNIAMO A BOMBA

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This assumes that our evidence is merely that life exists in at least one universe. But this is not correct; our evidence is that life exists in this universe.
Note:LA LORO CONCLUSIONE NN DICE NULLA SUL NS UNIVERSO

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11.4.2 In Defense of the Multiverse
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Earth contains peculiar features that make it especially hospitable to life.
Note:ALTRA ANALOGIA CHE RIABILITA L OPZIONE MT

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distances from the sun,
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appropriate size,
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large amount of surface water,
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it is only on the few planets suitable to life that any intelligent beings could have evolved to wonder about the characteristics of their planet.
Note:TUTTO NORMALE

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Now imagine someone pressing the “this planet” objection:
Note:TUTTAVIA...

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Our evidence is not merely that at least one planet somewhere is habitable; our evidence is that this planet is habitable. And however many other planets there may be, they don’t affect the habitability of this one.
Note:THIS PLANET OBJ...MA QUI NN SEMBRA AVERE FORZA...PERCHÈ?

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11.4.3 Four Cases Resolved
Note:Ttttttttttttttttt COSA CONTA 1) TEORIA...2) DESCRIZIONE EVIDENZA 3) QUALITÀ E SOSTITUIBILITÀ

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a theory that accounts for all four of the above cases: the Firing Squad, the Coin Flip, Planet Earth, and the Uranium case.
Note:COSA CERCHIAMO

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Your evidence supports a hypothesis, H, provided that the truth of H would make it more likely that you would receive that qualitative evidence than it would be if H were false.
Note:LA TEORIACENTRALE DESCRIVERE CORRETTAMENTE L'ESPERIENZA. ESEMPIO FUCILAZIONE: IO SOPRAVVIVO (IL FATTO CHE ESISTANO MILIARDI DI PLOTONI NON SPIEGA CHE UNO SOPRAVVIVERA' NON CHE QUELL'UNO SIA IO...NN C È SOSTITUIBILITÀ). ESEMPIO DIECI TESTE: IO LE FACCIO (IL FATTO CHE SIAMO MILIARDI DI PERSONE A LANCIARE NON ALZA LA PROB CHE SIA PROPRIO IO A FARE LE DIECI TESTE, SPIEGA SOLO CHE UNO LE FARA'...NN C È SOSTITUIBILITÀ). MULTIVERSO: IL NOSTRO UNIVERSO OSPITA LA VITA (SE ESISTONO MOLTI UNIVERSI IN GRADO DI OSPITARE LA VITA AUMENTA LA PROB DELLA NOSTRA EVIDENZA. MA SE GLI ALTRI UNIVERSI SONO STERILI NN C È SOSTITUIBILITÀ)

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what needs to be explained is always your having a certain set of evidence, not merely someone’s
Note:PRIMA PRECISAZIONE...TU...NN UNO QUALSIASI

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The evidence itself should be understood qualitatively.
Note:SECONDA...QUALITÀ NN QUANTITÀ...ES CONTA IL COLORE NN IL NUMERO...ASSUNTO NECESSARIO X GARANTIRE LA SOSTITUIBILITÀ NEI MULTIPLI. Es SU QS O SU UN ALTRA TERRA GEMELLA LA MIA ESPERIENZA È LA MEDESIMA SOLO SE CONTA ESCLUSIVAMENTE LA QUALITÀ

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explanatoriness of a hypothesis is evaluated relative to the alternatives.
Note:TERZA CONDIZIONE

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In the Firing Squad case, your evidence consists of an experience of surviving a firing squad.
Note:PRIMO CASO

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The existence of other firing squads raises the probability that there will be some other people having that experience, but it does not affect your probability of having that experience.
Note:NN PASSA IL TEST

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In the Coin Flip case, your evidence is your experience of flipping a coin ten times and seeing it come up heads every time.
Note:SECONDO CASO

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The probability of your receiving this evidence if there are many other coins being flipped elsewhere by other people is also (1/2)10.
Note:NN PASSA IL TEST

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In the Planet Earth case, your evidence consists of your experience of living on a life-sustaining planet.

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if there were many planets in the universe, it is much more likely that you would find yourself existing,
Note:PASSA IL TEST...UN PÒ- AL CONTRARIO - COMEVINCERE LA LOTTERIA...IL M DEI PARTECIPANTI CONTA: È PIÙ PROBABILE SE I PARTECIPANTI SONO POCHI

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Why not describe the evidence as being that this specific planet that you find yourself on is life-sustaining, rather than merely that you find yourself on some life-sustaining planet?
Note:OBIEZIONE..XCHÈ NN CONSIDERARE QLCS DI PIÙ INFORMATIVO

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The answer is that your evidence does not really identify a specific, individual planet. If you had instead found yourself on another planet, qualitatively like Earth but located in another galaxy, you would not have noticed the difference; thus, we should count the evidence you would have had in that case as being the same as the evidence you actually have.
Note:RISPOSTA....ECCO A COSA SERVE LA QUALITÀ

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why not include in the evidence more information, besides just that you are on a life-sustaining planet?
Note:ALTRA OBIEZIONE

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number of continents
Note:ES ALTRE INFO

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number of other planets in its solar system,
Note:INFO 2

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shapes of the constellations visible
Note:INFO 3

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It is irrelevant because the theories under consideration do not differentially impact the probabilities of these details.
Note:RISPOSYA

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A refined version of the total evidence requirement, then, would state that we should take a more informative characterization of the evidence rather than a less informative one, whenever this makes a difference to the relative probabilities of the evidence
Note:X EVITARE ERRORI

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in the case of the uranium atoms, your evidence is that an atom named Bob decayed in the last five minutes.
Note:CASO DELL URANIO

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You would be much more likely to receive this evidence if the box contained many atoms than if it contained few.
Note:SUPERA IL TEST

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11.4.4 Personal Identity and the Multiverse Theory
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Now at last, what of the Multiverse theory ?
Note:PASSIAMO AL NS CASO

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more likely to happen if there were many universes than if there were only one.
Note:LA NS ESPERIENZA

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the argument requires the assumption that you could have existed in a universe other than this one.
Note:CAVEAT!!!!!!!

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You might well doubt this.
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you are an individual, physical object. And a particular physical object can only exist in the universe it is in.
Note:IL PROBLEMA

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if you had not existed in this universe, you could not have existed at all,
Note:Cccccccccccc

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An alternative view is that you would exist as long as an organism with a brain sufficiently like your actual brain had come into existence
Note:ALTERNATIVA LASCA

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perhaps your identity is tied to a particular, immaterial soul,
Note:LASCA BIS

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if a person in another universe could count as you, then the fine tuning evidence supports multiple universes.
Note:CONCLUSIONE RIPETUTA

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if a person in another universe could not count as you, then the fine tuning evidence gives you no reason at all to believe in other universes.
Note:COROLLARIO

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11.5 Against Doomsday
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It misunderstands our evidence by characterizing it in an overly general way.
Note:L ERRORE DA

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The probability of your being born at the time you were actually born is completely unaffected by anything that happens after that time. Therefore, that you were born at that time does not provide any evidence about what will happen later;
Note:INFATTI

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Notice how this case differs from the case of picking numbers from a hat. In the hat case, when you pick a small number, you can infer that the hat probably contains few numbers rather than many numbers. This inference is legitimate because the size of the hat can in fact affect what number you draw.
Note:DISANALOGIA

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The slip numbered “501”, for example, can prevent the slip numbered “8” from being chosen, by getting in the way and getting itself drawn out of the hat instead.
Note:DISANALOGIA

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in the Doomsday Argument, since individuals who exist later in time could not have prevented you from being born when you were.
Note:Ccccccc

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Multiverse argument does not require any problematic backward causation, since the many universes are supposed to exist simultaneously.
Note:IL VANTAGGIO DI MT RISPETTO A DA

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There could be a version of the Multiverse theory that makes the same mistake as the Doomsday Argument: suppose we claimed that because we find ourselves existing at all, there probably will be many universes in the future.
Note:LA FALLACIA DELL UNIVERSO CICLICO

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11.6 Sleeping Beauty: For a Third
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In the Firing Squad case, it is important that your evidence is that you survived your firing squad, not merely that someone survived
Note:L IMPORTANZA DI DESCRIVERE BENE L EVIDENZA

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In the Doomsday case, it is important that your evidence is that you were born at the time you were, not merely that some random person from the species’
Note:ANCORA

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E1 I am woken up at least once.
Note:MODI DI DESCRIVERE L EVIDENZA DELLA BELLA ADDORMENTATA 1

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E2 I am woken up now.
Note:2

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she in fact has no new evidence, since she knew from the start that she would be woken up at least once regardless of whether the coin came up heads or tails.
Note:CASO E1.....MI HANNO SVEGLIATO ALMENO UNA VOLTA...SI REALIZZA SIA CON TESTA CHE CON CROCE

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In the statement of E2, “now” refers to the specific time at which Beauty has just found herself awoken.
Note:CASO E2…INFO SPECIFICA CHE SI AGGIUNGE

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But times at which a subject of this experiment is woken up are more likely to be Mondays than to be Tuesdays.
Note:QUINDI LUNEDÌ QUINDI TESTA...NB SB SI RITROVA XFETTAMENTE SOSTITUIBILE TRA LUNEDÍ E MARTEDÌ

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Beauty has no reason to think she is special
Note:Ccccccccc

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E2 is in fact the correct characterization of the evidence, given the total evidence principle: we should use the most informative accurate characterization of the subject’s evidence. Beauty knows both E1 and E2, but E2 is more informative: that Beauty is woken up now logically entails that she is woken up at least once,
Note:E2>E1

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The theories are not empirically equivalent;
Note:MULTIVERSO VS DESIGN@@@@@@@@@@NELLE NOTE

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Multiverse predicts, roughly, that we should find ourselves to be fairly typical examples of the sort of conscious beings who would exist in a multiverse filled with universes with randomly chosen parameter values.
Note:ESEMPIO 1 SEMBREREBBE SFAVOREVOLE A MT

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Multiverse might lead us to expect the initial entropy of the universe to be approximately the highest that it could be, compatible with life later being likely to evolve; Design would probably lead us to expect a lower initial entropy, perhaps the minimal physically possible initial entropy.
ESEMPIO 2…ANCORA SFAVOREVOLE A MT@@@@@@@@@NOTE

THE FINE-TUNING DESIGN ARGUMENT robin collins

THE FINE-TUNING DESIGN ARGUMENT

robin collins

Citation (APA): collins, r. (2018). THE FINE-TUNING DESIGN ARGUMENT [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com

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Parte introduttiva

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 2

THE FINE-TUNING DESIGN ARGUMENT By robin collins

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 23

I. INTRODUCTION

Nota - Posizione 23

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 23

The Evidence of Fine-tuning

Nota - Posizione 23

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 37

Scientists call this extraordinary balancing of the parameters of physics and the initial conditions of the universe the "fine-tuning of the cosmos."

Nota - Posizione 38

BILANCIAMENTO INIZIALE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 39

Today, it is widely regarded as offering by far the most persuasive current argument for the existence of God.

Nota - Posizione 40

GOD

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 41

Paul Davies--whose

Nota - Posizione 41

ESEMPIO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 43

Fred Hoyle

Nota - Posizione 43

ANCORA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 48

If the initial explosion of the big bang had differed in strength by as little as 1 part in 1060, the universe would have either quickly collapsed

Nota - Posizione 49

PRIMO FINE TUNING

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 52

if the strong nuclear force, the force that binds protons and neutrons together in an atom, had been stronger or weaker by as little as 5%, life would be impossible.

Nota - Posizione 53

NUCLEAR FORCE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 54

if gravity had been stronger or weaker by 1 part in 1040, then life-sustaining stars like the sun could not exist.

Nota - Posizione 55

TERZO ELEMENTO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 55

If the neutron were not about 1.001 times the mass of the proton, all protons would have decayed into neutrons

Nota - Posizione 56

QUARTO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 57

If the electromagnetic force were slightly stronger or weaker, life would be impossible,

Nota - Posizione 58

QUINTO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 73

Preliminary Distinction

Nota - Posizione 73

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 75

the atheistic single-universe hypothesis and the atheistic many-universes hypothesis.

Nota - Posizione 75

LE DUE IPOTESI ATEE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 76

there is only one universe, and it is ultimately an inexplicable, "brute" fact

Nota - Posizione 76

ASH

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 79

imaginatively thought of as a "universe generator" that produces a very large or infinite number of universes, with each universe having a randomly selected set of initial conditions and values for the parameters of physics.

Nota - Posizione 80

MANY UNIVERSES

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 88

II. CORE ARGUMENT RIGOROUSLY FORMULATED

Nota - Posizione 88

Tttttttt

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 92

whenever we are considering two competing hypotheses, an observation counts as evidence in favor of the hypothesis under which the observation has the highest probability

Nota - Posizione 93

PRINCIPIO DELLA CONFERMA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 97

fine-tuning is much, much more probable under the theism than under the atheistic single-universe hypothesis

Nota - Posizione 98

ESEMPIO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 119

The existence of the fine-tuning is not improbable under theism.

Nota - Posizione 120

PREMESSA 1

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 120

The existence of the fine-tuning is very improbable under the atheistic single-universe hypothesis.

Nota - Posizione 121

PREMESA 2

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 122

it follows that the fine-tuning data provides strong evidence to favor of the design hypothesis

Nota - Posizione 122

CONCLUSIONE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 140

since God is an all good being, and it is good for intelligent, conscious beings to exist, it not surprising or improbable that God would create a world that could support intelligent life.

Nota - Posizione 141

SUPPORTO ALLA PREMESSA 1

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 153

III. SOME OBJECTIONS TO CORE VERSION

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Objection 1: More Fundamental Law Objection

Nota - Posizione 155

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 156

there could be a more fundamental law under which the parameters of physics must have the values they do.

Nota - Posizione 157

OB 1

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 159

Under this hypothesis, what is improbable is that all the conceivable fundamental physical laws there could be, the universe just happens to have the one that constrains the parameters of physics in a life-permitting way.

Nota - Posizione 161

IMPROBABILE

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A similar sort of response can be given to the claim that the fine-tuning is not improbable because it might be logically necessary for the parameters of physics to have life-permitting values.

Nota - Posizione 166

TAPPABUCHI FISICALISTA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 170

Objection 2: Other Forms of Life Objection

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 171

other forms of life could exist even if the parameters of physics were different.

Nota - Posizione 172

OB 2

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most cases of fine-tuning do not make this presupposition. Consider, for instance, the case of the fine-tuning of the strong nuclear force. If it were slightly larger or smaller, no atoms could exist other than hydrogen.

Nota - Posizione 174

NEGAZIONE NEI FATTI...ALMENO X LA VITA INTELLIGENTE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 177

Objection 3. Anthropic Principle Objection:

Nota - Posizione 178

Tttttttttt

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 179

if the laws of nature were not fine-tuned, we would not be here to comment on the fact.

Nota - Posizione 179

OB 3

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 180

fine-tuning is not really improbable or surprising at all under atheism,

Nota - Posizione 180

CONCLUSIONE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 181

The response to this objection is to simply restate the argument in terms of our existence: our existence as embodied, intelligent beings is extremely unlikely under the atheistic single-universe hypothesis

Nota - Posizione 182

RIPROPORRE L ARG CARDINE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 184

"firing-squad" analogy. As John Leslie

Nota - Posizione 184

ANALOGIA ESPLICATIVA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 189

Objection 4: The "Who Designed God?" Objection

Nota - Posizione 189

OB 4

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 191

postulating the existence of God does not solve the problem of design, but merely transfers it up one level.

Nota - Posizione 191

5

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 191

George Smith,

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 199

the atheist claim that the designer of an artifact must be as complex as the artifact designed is certainly not obvious.

Nota - Posizione 199

PRIMA OSSERVAZIONE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 200

in the world we experience, organized complexity seems only to be produced by systems that already possess it,

Nota - Posizione 201

PLAUSIBILITÀ INTUITIVA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 206

even if we were to grant the atheist assumption that the designer of an artifact must be as complex as the artifact, the fine-tuning would still give us strong reasons to prefer theism

Nota - Posizione 207

NEL CFR CON ASH

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 212

The final response theists can give to this objection is to show that a supermind such as God would not require a high degree of unexplained organized complexity to create the universe.

Nota - Posizione 213

TERZA RISPISTA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 214

IV. THE MANY-UNIVERSES HYPOTHESIS

Nota - Posizione 214

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 215

The Many-Universes Hypothesis Explained

Nota - Posizione 215

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 217

According to this hypothesis, there are a very large--perhaps infinite --number of universes, with the fundamental parameters of physics varying from universe to universe.

Nota - Posizione 219

DESCRIZ

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 221

We will present what are probably the two most popular and plausible, the so-called vacuum fluctuation models and the oscillating Big Bang models.

Nota - Posizione 222

DUE IPOTESI DI FORMAZIONE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 222

According to the vacuum fluctuation models, our universe, along with these other universes, were generated by quantum fluctuations in a pre-existing superspace (e.g., see Quentin Smith, 1986, p. 82).

Nota - Posizione 224

PRIMO MODELLO POSSIBILE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 228

According to the oscillating Big Bang theory, our universe will eventually collapse back in on itself (what is called the "Big Crunch") and then from that "Big Crunch" will arise another "Big Bang", forming a new universe, which will in turn itself collapse, and so on.

Nota - Posizione 229

ES DI UN MODELLO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 233

Reasons for Rejecting the Many-universes Hypothesis

Nota - Posizione 233

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 235

everything else being equal, we should prefer hypotheses for which we have independent evidence or that are natural extrapolations from what we already know.

Nota - Posizione 236

PRIMA RAGIONE DI RIGETTO...SPIEGAZIONE PIÙ NATURALE ANALOGICA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 237

Most of us take the existence of dinosaur bones to count as very strong evidence that dinosaurs existed in the past. But suppose a dinosaur skeptic claimed that she could explain the bones by postulating a "dinosaur-bone-producing-field" that simply materialized the bones out of thin air. Moreover, suppose further that, to avoid objections such as that there are no known physical laws that would allow for such a mechanism, the dinosaur skeptic simply postulated that we have not yet discovered these laws or detected these fields.

Nota - Posizione 240

ANALOGIA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 241

although no one has directly observed dinosaurs, we do have experience of other animals leaving behind fossilized remains, and thus the dinosaur explanation is a natural extrapolation from our common experience.

Nota - Posizione 243

XCHÈ RIFIUTIAMO QS SPIEGA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 244

In the case of the fine-tuning, we already know that minds often produce fine-tuned devices,

Nota - Posizione 245

ANALOGIA SPIEGATA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 246

it is difficult to see how the atheistic many-universes hypothesis could be considered a natural extrapolation from what we observe.

Nota - Posizione 247

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 248

we have some experiential evidence for the existence of God, namely religious experience.

Nota - Posizione 248

INOLTRE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 250

A second reason for rejecting the atheistic many-universe hypothesis is that the "many-universes generator" seems like it would need to be designed.

Nota - Posizione 251

SECONDA RAGIONE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 258

A third reason for rejecting the atheistic many-universes hypothesis is that the universe generator must not only select the parameters of physics at random, but must actually randomly create or select the very laws of physics themselves.

Nota - Posizione 260

TERZA RAGIONE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 260

makes this hypothesis seem even more far-fetched

Nota - Posizione 260

EFFETTO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 263

For example, without the law of inertia, which guarantees that particles do not shoot off at high speeds, life would probably not be possible (Leslie, Universes, p. 59).

Nota - Posizione 264

ESEMPIO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 264

Another example is the law of gravity: if masses did not attract each other, there would be no planets or stars, and once again it seems that life would be impossible.

Nota - Posizione 265

ALTRO ESEMPIO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 270

many physicists, such as Albert Einstein, have observed that the basic laws of physics exhibit an extraordinary degree of beauty, elegance, harmony, and ingenuity. Nobel Prize winning physicist Steven Weinberg, for instance, devotes a whole chapter of his book Dreams of a Final Theory (Chapter 6, "Beautiful Theories") explaining how the criteria of beauty and elegance are commonly used to guide physicists in formulating the right laws.

Nota - Posizione 273

QUARTA RAGIONE X RIFIUTARE...L UNIVERSO NN È SOLO ORDINATO È ANCHE BELLO!!!!!

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 275

Now such beauty, elegance, and ingenuity make sense if the universe was designed by God.

Nota - Posizione 275

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 288

The problem for the atheist is to explain how the universe could have started out in a highly ordered state, since it is extraordinarily improbable for such states to occur by chance.

Nota - Posizione 289

ULTIMA RAGIONE.... ENTROPIA....IL PROGETTO È COMLESSISSIMO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 291

Now our question is, Could the atheistic many-universes hypothesis explain the high degree of initial order

Nota - Posizione 292

DOMANDA

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 297

Consequently, even under the atheistic many-universes hypothesis, it would still be enormously improbable for intelligent beings to find themselves in a universe such as ours which is highly ordered throughout.

Nota - Posizione 298

CONCLUSIONE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 298

(See Sklar, chapter 8

Nota - Posizione 299

PER COMPRENDERE MEGLIO LA DIFFICOLTA DI CAPIRE QUALI SONO I GIUSTI PARAMETRI

Nota - Posizione 300

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 300

Conclusion

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 304

V. OVERALL CONCLUSION

Nota - Posizione 304

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 309

the strongest atheist argument against theism, the argument from evil.

Nota - Posizione 309

UN CFR COL FT

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 310

the atheist argues that the existence of the kind of evils we find in the world is very improbable under theism, but not improbable under atheism.

Nota - Posizione 311

ARG DEL MALE

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 318

But how could atheists show this without first surveying all possible morally good purposes such a being might have, something they have clearly not done?

Nota - Posizione 319

LA DIFFICOLTÀ DELL ATEO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 330

we have no idea of how large the realm is of possible greater purposes for evil that an all good, omnipotent being could have.

Nota - Posizione 331

L OSTACOLO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 332

own minds, we have good reason to believe that we have so far only searched a small proportion,

Nota - Posizione 332

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 338

Thus, I conclude, the core argument for preferring theism over the atheistic single-universe hypothesis is much stronger than the atheist argument from evil.

Nota - Posizione 339

CONCLUSIONE DEL CFR IN YERMINI DI PROB

Segnalibro - Posizione 340

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 451

Classical Probability

Nota - Posizione 451

APPENDIX

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 451

probability defines probability in terms of the ratio of number of "favorable cases" to the total number of equipossible cases.

Nota - Posizione 452

FREQUENTISMO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 458

Epistemic Probability

Nota - Posizione 458

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Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 460

Roughly, the epistemic probability of a proposition can be thought of as the degree of credence--that

Nota - Posizione 461

SOGGETTIVISMO

Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 479

This undercuts the common atheist objection that it is meaningless to speak of the probability of the fine-tuning under the atheistic single-universe hypothesis since under this hypothesis the universe is not a repeatable event.

Nota - Posizione 480

LA CONSEG DI UNA COMPRENSIONE DI COSA SIA PROB