HL CHAPTER 3 Now Is the Time to Panic: What to Do When Safety Fails

CHAPTER 3 Now Is the Time to Panic: What to Do When Safety Fails
Note:3@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@SICUREZZA CIBO E GIOCATTOLI

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panic swept the supermarkets.
Note:2006

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hospitalized with food poisoning
Note:VECCHIETTA

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dozens of cases

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infected by E. coli from eating fresh spinach.
Note:LA VOCE DELLO SPINACIO ASSASSINO

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Administration issued a general warning

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The response was dramatic.
Note:OVEREACTION

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a shipment of 1,002 pounds of spinach harvested in California’s
Note:IL COLPEVOLE

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The spinach recall was to food what the subprime mortgage crisis was
Note:ANALOGIA

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The food chain and the financial system
Note:COMPLESSITÀ

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unacceptable when the public is accustomed to taking its safety for granted,
Note:RIFIUTO E PANI CO

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not just the fact, but even more the perception,
Note:LA FONTE DEL DANNO

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studying the potentially carcinogenic properties of Alar, a pesticide
Note:PESTICIDI E CANCRO

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EPA declared Alar a health risk though not an imminent one,
Note:VERDETTO

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The reaction to the broadcast was swift.
Note:MELE MALEDETTE

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yanked all the apples off
Note:ANCHE SE SOTTO I LIVELLI DI GUARDIA

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“We’re not dealing with reality.”
Note:CONCLUSIONE

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from a different point of view, the “panic” was rational.
Note:PANICO RAZIONALE

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substitutes are readily available,
Note:ESITO DELL ABBONDANZA

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a small inconvenience
Note:RINUNCIARE A MICROSCOPICI PERICOLI

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panic has a certain logic.
Note:MORALE

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Industry and regulators have worked hard to foster belief in the complete safety of the industry.
Note:FUNZIONE DLLA REGOLA

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raise expectations in perverse ways.
Note:EFFETTO COLLATERALE

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Option two: I flip a coin. Heads, I give you $1,000. Tails, nothing. Which option do you prefer?
Note:TEST. OPZ 1: TI DO 500€

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someone indifferent to risk would be equally happy

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choose option one.
Note:LA MAGGIORANZA

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real people are not “risk neutral”:

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This observation was first made by the Swiss mathematician Daniel Bernoulli

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people put enormous value on probabilities of 100 percent.
Note:SINDROME 100%

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Tversky and Kahneman
Note:LOSS AVERSION IN PRESENZA DI 100

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a 20 percent chance at $4,000 (expected payoff $800); the second had a 25 percent chance of $3,000 (expected payoff $750).
Note:SPARISCE 100 SPARISCE LA

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probability of 100 percent has a special appeal.

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Why do we hate uncertainty?

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theory of diminishing utility, a fancy way of saying that each dollar of income
Note:RISOSTA ECONOMIISTI

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“the endowment effect”: people put greater value on something when they own it than when they don’t.
Note:SPIEGA PSICOLOG

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Uncertainty
Note:TASSA SULLA PSICHE

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The more imminent and tangible the possibility, the more painful it becomes
Note:IMMINENZA

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These findings help explain the enormous value we place on safety,
Note:VALORE SICUREZZA

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why stocks over time return more than bonds.
Note:ALTRO FATTO SPIEGATO

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The findings explain why we buy insurance, too.
Note:ASSICURAZIOMNI COME BANCO DEL CASINO

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customer buying a policy is taking an unfair bet.
Note:ANALOGIA

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Gary Gorton,
Note:BANK PANIC

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Gorton concluded that panics were about lack of information:

PANICO RAZIONALE

Riccardo Mariani

23 febbraio alle ore 19:43 · 

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PANICO RAZIONALE

L' era dell' abbondanza coincide con l'era del panico perchè rinunciare ad un micro-pericolo ha sempre un micro-costo, in altre parole, per tutto c'è un sostituto disponibile. Ogni velato sospetto innesca cambiamenti massicci che noi interpretiamo come "panico": esiste una probabilità minima che le mozzarelle della terra dei fuochi siano contaminate? Nessuno le comprerà più, per quanto quella probabilità sia irrilevante esistono comunque delle alternative dal costo altrettanto irrilevante.
I nostri figli vivono nell'ambiente più sicuro di sempre eppure le nostre mamme sono le più apprensive di sempre? Ma è così perché viviamo nell'era dell'abbondanza! L'era in cui evitare un pericolo insignificante comporta sacrifici insignificanti.
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