Automation ‘But what’s happening?’ Flight 447 and the Jennifer unit: When human messiness protects us from computerised disaster – Messy: How to Be Creative and Resilient in a Tidy-Minded World – Tim Harford –
Punti chiave: L’automazione diffusa erode le nostre competenze – Il pilota automatico in aeronautica – I guai di un aereo troppo sicuro – paradosso dell’automazione – multe in automatico, azzeramento capacità d’indagine e deresponsabilizzazione – I giapponesi finiti nell’oceano con il gps – Il robot che più preoccupa non è quello che ci sostituisce nel lavoro ma nel giudizio – Meteorologi: prima prevedere, poi consultare il computer – I problemoni dell’auto che si guida da sé – Soluzioni al paradosso dell’automazione – Puo’ aiutare un computer che sbaglia più frequentemente – Una strada più incasinata ci rende guitadori più concentrati e prudenti –
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,654 Pierre-Cédric Bonin, thirty-two, was young and inexperienced. David Robert, thirty-seven, had more experience but he had recently become an Air France manager and no longer flew full-time. Captain Marc Dubois, fifty-eight, had experience aplenty but he’d been touring Rio with an off-duty flight attendant. It was later reported that he had only had an hour’s sleep.
Note:UNA CREW CON I SUOI DIFETTI
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,665 paradoxically, there is a risk to building a plane that protects pilots so assiduously from even the tiniest error. It means that when something challenging does occur, the pilots will have very little experience to draw on as they try to meet that challenge.
Note:GLI INCONVENIENTI DI UN AEREO TROPPO SICURO
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,717 the real source of the problem was the system that had done so much to keep A330s safe across fifteen years and millions of miles of flying: the fly-by-wire. Or more precisely, the problem was not the fly-by-wire system, but the fact that the pilots had grown to rely on that system…Aggravating this mode confusion was Bonin’s lack of experience in flying a plane without computer assistance. While he had spent many hours in the cockpit of the A330, most of those hours had been spent monitoring and adjusting the plane’s computers rather than directly flying the aircraft….
Note:FLY BY WIRE
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,734 This problem has a name: the paradox of automation…The better the automatic systems, the more out-of-practice human operators will be,…
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,738 The psychologist James Reason, author of Human Error, wrote: ‘Manual control is a highly skilled activity, and skills need to be practised continuously in order to maintain them.
Note:SKILL E ABITUDINE
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,743 automatic systems accommodate incompetence
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,745 even if operators are expert, automatic systems erode their skills
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,746 systems tend to fail either in unusual situations or in ways that produce unusual situations, requiring a particularly skilful human response.
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,749 A customer service webpage may be able to handle routine complaints and requests, so that customer service staff are spared repetitive work and may do a better job for customers
Note:TECNOLOGIA SENZA PARADOSSI
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,787 Earl Wiener, a cult figure in aviation safety who died in 2013, coined what’s known as ‘Wiener’s Laws’ of aviation and human error. One of them was, ‘Digital devices tune out small errors while creating opportunities for large errors.’
Note:LA LEGGE DI WIENER
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,808 At 14 seconds after 8.08 p.m. on 20 December 2013, his car had been blocking a bus stop in Bradford, Yorkshire, and had been photographed by a camera mounted in a traffic enforcement van driving past. A computer had identified the licence plate… There was just one problem: Mr Hankins hadn’t been illegally parked at all. He had been stuck in traffic….Yellow highlight | Location: 2,813 There was just one problem: Mr Hankins hadn’t been illegally parked at all. He had been stuck in traffic….
Note:LA MULTA AUTOMATICA AL SIG HANKINS
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,814 In principle, such technology should not fall victim to the paradox of automation. It should free up humans to do more interesting and varied work – checking the anomalous cases
Note:AZZERATA LA CAPACITÀ D’INDAGINE
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,820 Google unveiled a neural network that could identify house numbers in photographs…what if Google improves its accuracy by a factor of a million?…
Note:GOOGLE CI GUARDA IN CASA
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,832 when someone says the computer made a mistake, we will assume they are wrong or lying.
Note:ERRORI DEL COMPUTER
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,832 What happens when private security guards throw you out of your local shopping centre because a computer has mistaken your face for that of a known shoplifter?
Note:LA FACCIA SBAGLIATA
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,841 Rahinah – visiting her home country of Malaysia – was told at the airport that her US student visa had been revoked without notice. Despite being the mother of an American citizen, she would never be able to return to the United States…Rahinah had been put on a no-fly list by mistake – possibly the result of confusion between Jemaah Islamiyah, a terrorist group, which killed 202 people with a car bomb in Bali in 2002, and Jemaah Islah Malaysia, a professional association of Malaysians who have studied overseas. Rahinah was a member of the second group, not the first. Once that error had entered the database it acquired the iron authority of the computer….
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,855 Yet automatic systems want to be tidy. Once an algorithm or a database has placed you in a particular category, the black-and-white definitions of the data discourage argument and uncertainty.
Note:LA MALEDIZIONE DEPL BIANCO E NERO
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,858 We are now on more lists than ever before: lists of criminals; lists of free-spending shoppers;
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,865 we have not yet acknowledged how imperfectly a tidy database maps on to a messy world.
Note:DATI CHIARI MONDO CAOTICO
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,871 the database and the algorithm, like the autopilot, should be there to support human decision-making.
Note:SOLO LA COPPIA FUNZIONA
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,873 In March 2012, three Japanese students visiting Australia decided to drive to North Stradbroke, guided by their GPS system. For some reason the GPS was not aware that their route was blocked by nine miles of the Pacific Ocean…in thrall to their technology, they drove their car on to the beach and across the mud flats towards the ocean….
Note:GIAPPONESI IN AUSTRALIA
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,880 Automated systems tend to lull us into passivity.
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,885 This tendency to passively accept the default option turns out to apply to automated decisions too; psychologists call it automation bias.
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,887 Driving your car into the sea is an extreme example of automation bias, but most GPS users will recognise the tendency in a milder form….Not knowing why the GPS failed me, I have no way of predicting when it might do so again….
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,901 When the algorithms are making the decisions, people often stop working to get better.
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,904 engineers make the problem worse by deliberately designing systems to supplant human expertise by default; if we wish instead to use them to support human expertise, we need to wrestle with the system.
Note:AFFIANCAMENTO E RIMPIAZZO
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,909 We worry that the robots are taking our jobs, but just as common a problem is that the robots are taking our judgement.
ote:ROBOT E LAVORO
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,917 You could even argue that the financial crisis of 2007–8, which plunged the world into recession, was analogous to absent-mindedly driving a car into the Pacific.
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,921 if that grizzled market participant had been able to talk to the computers, the computers would have been able to demonstrate the catastrophic impact of such a crash on the value of CDOs. Unfortunately, there was no meeting of minds
Note:AUTOMATISMI LASCIATI A SE STESSI
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,925 veteran meteorologists would make weather forecasts first by looking at the data and forming an expert judgement; only then would they look at the computerised forecast
Note:LA STRATEGIA DEI METEOREOLOGI
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,931 Chris Urmson, who runs Google’s self-driving car programme, hopes that the cars will soon be so widely available that his sons will never need to have a driving licence.
Note:SELF DRIVING CAR
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,933 unlike a plane’s autopilot, a self-driving car will never need to cede control
Note:UN PERENNE PILOTA AUTOMATICO
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,937 we can look forward to a more gradual process of letting the car drive itself in easier conditions…‘There will always be some edge cases where things do go beyond anybody’s control.’…
Note:RAJKUMAR E IL GRADUALISMO
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,946 if we expect the human to leap in and take over, how will the human be able to react appropriately?
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,948 Human beings are not used to driving automated vehicles, so we really don’t know how drivers are going to react when the driving is taken over by the car,’ says Anuj K. Pradhan
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,952 And when the computer gives control back to the driver, it may well do so in the most extreme and challenging situations.
Note:SITUAZIONI AL LIMITE
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,956 No matter how many years of experience a driver has, her skills will slowly erode if she lets the computer take over.
Note:L’ESPERIENZA CONTA POCO
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,969 ‘I wasn’t parked illegally, I was stuck in traffic’; or ‘That’s not a terrorist group, it’s an alumni association.’ Does more efficient service in the majority of cases justify trapping a small number of individuals in Kafkaesque battles against bureaucracy?
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,973 Until the late 1970s, one could reliably expect at least twenty-five fatal commercial plane crashes a year. In 2009, Air France 447 was one of just eight crashes, a safety record. The cost–benefit analysis seems clear: freakish accidents like Flight 447 are a price worth paying,
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,977 One priority could be to make semi-automated systems give feedback in a way that humans feel more viscerally.
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,983 Some senior pilots urge their juniors to turn off the autopilots from time to time to maintain their skills.
Yellow highlight | Location: 2,986 An alternative solution is to reverse the role of computer and human. Rather than letting the computer fly the plane with the human poised to take over when the computer cannot cope
Note:SOLUZIONE INVERTIRE I RUOLI
Yellow highlight | Location: 3,003 Unsurprisingly, the scientists showed that reaction times and other measures of performance dramatically deteriorated as the hours ticked by.
Note:TEMPI DI REAZIONE
Yellow highlight | Location: 3,007 behaviour suggests that when humans are asked to babysit computers, the computers themselves should be programmed to serve up occasional brief diversions. Even better might be an automated system that demanded more input, more often, from the human
Note:UN COMPUER CHE SBAGLIA DI FREQUENTE PUÒ AIUTARE
Yellow highlight | Location: 3,015 Control measures such as traffic lights and speed bumps frustrated drivers, who would often speed dangerously between one measure and another.
Note:LIMITARE LA VELOCITÀ
Yellow highlight | Location: 3,016 He suggested that the road through Oudehaske be made to look more like what it already was: a road through a village.
Yellow highlight | Location: 3,025 Where once drivers had, figuratively speaking, sped through the village on autopilot – not really attending to what they were doing – now they were faced with a messy situation and had to engage their brains…As Tom Vanderbilt describes Monderman’s strategy, ‘Rather than clarity and segregation, he had created confusion and ambiguity.’…
Quando la protezione civile fa la guerra ai poveri
Disaster Relief -More Sex Is Safer Sex: The Unconventional Wisdom of Economics Steven E. Landsburg
Punti chiave: La guerra ai poveri si fa costringendoli a comprare cose costose – se si mette tutto in sicurezza, tutto sarà più costoso – La protezione civile non rispetta le esigenze dei poveri – I servizi di protezione civile i pennano i costi delle case in zone rischiose –
Yellow highlight | Page: 195 Poor people, far more than rich people, need to watch their budgets. They buy cheaper clothes, cheaper food, and cheaper housing. They’re even willing to live on floodplains
Note:I BISOGNI DEL POVERO
Yellow highlight | Page: 195 They can live cheaply but dangerously, or they can pay more and be safer…But a policy of federal disaster assistance tends to erase that choice…
Yellow highlight | Page: 196 If the government stands ready to (literally) bail out New Orleans by raising taxes in Kansas City, then New Orleans housing prices rise and Kansas City housing prices fall. You can no longer escape the risk of a flood by moving to Kansas City; you can no longer reap the benefits of accepting the full risk by moving to New Orleans.
Note:ES. KANSAS E NEW ORLEANS
Yellow highlight | Page: 196 It’s good to have cities with different cultures, it’s good to have cities with different musical heritages, and it’s good to have cities with different risk characteristics.
Note:W LA DIFFERENZA
Yellow highlight | Page: 196 poor people are disproportionately hurt when disaster-assistance policies make cheap housing more expensive.
Note:BORTOLASO MALTRATTA I POVERI
Yellow highlight | Page: 196 we give them disaster relief (which is good) and simultaneously raise their housing costs (which is bad)?
Racial Profiling – More Sex Is Safer Sex: The Unconventional Wisdom of Economics Steven E. Landsburg
Punti chiave: Non è facile essere razzisti – Chi è razionale non puo’ essere razzista – Il test del posto di blocco –
Yellow highlight | Page: 192 Blacks were three-and-a-half times as likely as whites to be stopped and searched.
Note:NERI AL POSTO DI BLOCCO
Yellow highlight | Page: 192 Let’s look at the evidence. Among whites who were stopped, about one-third of one percent were caught with drugs. Among blacks who were stopped, the fraction was—almost exactly the same.
Note:BECCATI CON LA ROBA… NUMERI
Yellow highlight | Page: 192 blacks carried drugs just as frequently as whites even though they were three-and-a-half times as likely to be stopped.
Yellow highlight | Page: 192 blacks had a much greater propensity than whites to carry drugs
Yellow highlight | Page: 192 Another correct conclusion is that the police had no particular animus toward black people.
Yellow highlight | Page: 193 If the police actually bore some animus toward blacks, you’d expect them to go further—cracking down on blacks to the point where very few blacks would dare to carry drugs. Then we’d see a lower conviction rate for blacks
Note:IL POLIZIOTTO RAZZISTA
Yellow highlight | Page: 193 By that standard, it’s not blacks but Hispanics who have cause for complaint.
Note:RAZZISMO VS GLI ISPANICI. TROPPI BLOCCHI RISPETTO ALLA PROB. DI ARRESTO
Yellow highlight | Page: 193 If, like me, you consider the Drug War a moral outrage, you’ll be distressed to learn that the police are maximizing drug convictions.
Note:PECCATO CHE LA POLIZIA NON SIA RAZZISTA
Yellow highlight | Page: 194 If you really want to retard drug traffic, you should maximize not convictions, but deterrence.
Note:MAX ARRESTI E MAX DETERRENZA
Yellow highlight | Page: 194 you should probably stop more whites, because there are more whites in the population to deter.
Note:POPOLAZIONE DEI BIANCHI E DEI NERI
Yellow highlight | Page: 194 After all, one-third of one percent of whites represents a lot more motorists—and a lot more drugs—than one-third of one percent of blacks.
Note:LA DETERRENZA SU BIANCHI E NERI È LA STESSA MA I BIANCHI SONO DI PIÙ
Yellow highlight | Page: 194 fewer arrests (to appeal to the libertarians) and greater deterrence
Note:MENO ARRESTI MA PIÙ DETERRENZA
Yellow highlight | Page: 194 Racist police would have stopped even more blacks; police who cared about deterrence (as opposed to convictions) would have stopped more whites.