L'egoismo di chi non fa figli

L’egoismo di chi non fa figli

People Wanted – Fair Play: What Your Child Can Teach You About Economics, Values and the Meaning of Life – Steven E. Landsburg

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 Trigger warning: – tanti bimbi tanti cervelli – il motore della prosperità – circolo virtuoso – il ruolo della domanda – rivoluzione industriale – il limite della crescita – i torti di malthus – inquinamento al contrario – l’inconcepito e le generazioni future –

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TED BAXTER, THE ANCHORMAN ON THE old Mary Tyler Moore show, planned to have six children in hopes that one of them would grow up to solve the world’s population problem. …People solve problems, and when there are more people, more problems get solved. …

Note:TANTI BIMBI… TANTI CERVELLI

each generation free rides on the inventiveness of its ancestors.

Note:PERCHÈ SIAMO RICCHISIMI?

The engine of prosperity is technological progress—not just feats of engineering but also the design of new insurance contracts, better legal systems, and improved patterns of crop rotation.

Note:IL MOTORE DELLA PROSPERITÀ

Ideas come from people. The more people, the more ideas.

Note:IL MOTTO

population growth drives technological progress, technological progress drives economic growth,

Note:KREMER: UN MILIONE DI ANNI DI STORIA UMANA

a world with twice as many people will have twice as many natural-born geniuses.

Note:L‘ASSUNTO DI KREMER

the same reason that the biggest high schools usually have the best football teams.

Note:FOOTBALL TEAM

geniuses tend to inspire each other,

Note:CIRCOLO VIRTUOSO

a larger population means a larger market for inventions,

Note:PIÙ DOMANDA… DI IDEE

Industrial Revolution—and the massive ongoing growth spurt that it triggered—had to wait until world markets grew big enough to reward large scale innovation by entrepreneurs.

Note:RIVOLUZIONE INDUSTRIALE… TEORIA RICHMOND

In the first century A.D., Julius Frontinus wrote that “Inventions reached their limit long ago, and I see no hope for further development.”

Note:PRONOSTICI SUI LIMITI DELLA CRESCITA

One hundred years ago, the average workweek was over sixty hours; today it’s under forty. One hundred years ago, only 6% of manufacturing workers took vacations; today it’s 90%. …One hundred years ago, the average housekeeper spent twelve hours a day on laundry, cooking, cleaning and sewing; today it’s about four hours. …

Note:PROGRESSI

The average middle-class American might have a smaller measured income than the European monarchs of the Middle Ages, but that does not prevent the American from leading a more luxurious lifestyle.

Note:UNA QUALITÀ DA RE… IL REDDITO NON È TUTTO

A skeptic could easily point to countries where large populations coexist with abysmal economic conditions.2 But without exception, those are countries where the natural advantages of population size—a larger pool of geniuses and an abundance of trading partners—are undercut by government policies

Note:SOVRAPOPOLAZIONE

A large population brings many blessings besides prosperity. …We value our children for reasons that have little to do with their earning capacity. …

Note:OLTRE LA RICCHEZZA

A world with more people is a world with more diversity. Chamber music, parasailing, and Ethiopian restaurants can survive only where the population is large enough to support them.

Note:DIVERSITÀ

Parents who love their children face a tradeoff: The more children you have, the less you can give to each of them. Reasonable people disagree about how to resolve that tradeoff. Some find poverty an acceptable price to pay for a large family; others prefer fewer children with a higher living standard. That’s not a conflict that needs to be resolved; it’s an opportunity to celebrate diversity.

Note:NESSUNA ESTERNALITÁ TRA FAMIGLIE… MALTHUS HA TORTO ANCHE IN CONDIZIONI STATICHE

They’re unlikely to have overlooked many costs, because the costs are concentrated in your own family:

Note:I GENITORI CHE HANNO DECISO LA VOSTRA NASCITA

The benefits are more diffuse. The clearest benefit of your birth is that it brought your parents much joy; they didn’t overlook that one. But the remaining benefits are spread far and wide.

Note:I BENEFICI SONO PIÙ DIFFUSI

When a decision maker is more conscious of costs than of benefits, he tends to make decisions that are overly conservative.

Note:TROPPO POCHI FIGLI

Population growth is like pollution in reverse.

Note:INQUINAMENTO AL CONTRARIO

Somewhere there is a young lady whose life has been impoverished by my failure to sire the son who would someday sweep her off her feet.

Note:I DANNEGGIATI INCONSAPEVOLI

In other words, I was being selfish when I limited the size of my family. I understand selfishness. But I can’t understand encouraging others to be selfish,

Note:EGOISMO

A second, completely separate, argument says I should have had more children for the sake of those children themselves.

Note:GIFT OF LIFE

Do living people have any moral obligation to the trillions of potential people who will never have the opportunity to live unless we conceive them? …if the answer is not yes, then it’s no, and if the answer is no, then it seems there can be no moral objection to our trashing the entire earth, to the point where there will be no future generations. …

Note:I DIRITTI DEL NON CONCEPITO

to admit that we’re incapable of being logically rigorous about issues involving the unconceived.

Note:PROBLEMA IRRESOLUBILE

Surely you know couples like this: They already have two children, and they’re undecided about whether to have a third. They waver back and forth; they lean one way and then the other; they weigh the pros and they weigh the cons. Finally they decide to go ahead. And from the instant that third child is born, the parents love it so deeply that they’d gladly sacrifice all their assets to preserve its life.

Note:NON CI SI PENTE DI AVERE UN BAMBINO IN PIÙ

equivalent of an addictive drug. People hesitate about whether to try heroin; once they’ve decided to try it, they become addicted and can’t give it up.

Note:BAMBINI COME UNA DROGA

Parents know in advance, and with near certainty, that they will be addicted to their children. …parents know in advance, with near certainty, that they won’t want to break their addiction. …

Note:DIFFERENZA

I know that my unconceived children would be my most valuable “possessions”

Note:PARADOSSO

Economist Peter Bauer has pointed out that if per capita income is the right measure of human happiness, then the birth of a farm animal is a blessing and the birth of a child is a curse.

Note:LA MALEDIZIONE DELLA NASCITA

Other people—our friends and our children and sometimes even strangers who do us unexpected kindnesses—are among the luxuries that make life worth living.

IL NOSTRO LUSSO

Population, Fertility, and Liberty Bryan Caplan

Population, Fertility, and Liberty

Bryan Caplan

Citation (APA): Caplan, B. (2016). Population, Fertility, and Liberty [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com

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Parte introduttiva

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 2

Population, Fertility, and Liberty By Bryan Caplan

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 6

fretting about the “population problem” for at least fifty years.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 8

overpopulation

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 9

from mild nudges (like free condoms and sex education) to horrific coercion (like India’s involuntary sterilizations and China’s one-child policy and forced abortions).[ 1]

Nota - Posizione 10

x SOLUZIONI PROPOSTE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 12

Julian Simon,

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 13

high and growing population is good.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 14

People are the ultimate resource.[ 3]

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 17

Except for the United States and Israel, every modern economy now has fertility below the replacement rate.[ 4]

Nota - Posizione 18

INVERSIONE DEL PROBLEMA

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 27

The Case for People

Nota - Posizione 27

T

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 29

“How many who would have been a Mozart or a Michelangelo or an Einstein have we buried here?”

Nota - Posizione 29

x CLASSICA OMELIA DRL CAPPELLANO MOLITARE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 30

fewer human beings will be born, each one of whom might be a Mozart

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 31

or simply a joy to his or her family

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 33

The case against population is simple:

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 34

Assume a fixed pie

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 34

The flaw in this argument is that people are producers as well as consumers.

Nota - Posizione 35

L ERRORE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 35

More sophisticated critics of population appeal to the diminishing marginal product of labor.

Nota - Posizione 36

RENDIMENTI MARGINALI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 37

During the last two centuries, both population and prosperity exploded.

Nota - Posizione 38

LA RISPOSTA NEI FATTI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 39

Could rising population be a cause of rising prosperity?

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 41

new ideas are more important than labor or capital.[

Nota - Posizione 41

LA GRANDE IDEA

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 42

we know more

Nota - Posizione 43

CAUSA DELLA RICCHEZZA

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 43

We know how one man can grow food for hundreds. We know how to build flying machines. We know how to build iPhones. Best of all: Once one person discovers a new idea, billions can cheaply adopt it.

Nota - Posizione 45

x ESEMPI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 46

the source of new ideas.

Nota - Posizione 46

LA GENTE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 46

deleting half the names in your music collection— or

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 47

It increases the demand as well.

Nota - Posizione 48

ALTRO EFETTO DELLA GENTE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 48

Suppose an idea is worth $ 1 per person, but takes a decade to develop. On an island with a hundred inhabitants, the idea would remain undiscovered; inventors are better off picking coconuts. But in a world with seven billion customers, inventors scramble to bring the new idea to market.

Nota - Posizione 50

x PIÙ DOMANDA PIÙ INCENTIVI A INVENTARE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 51

There are far more books, movies, and television shows in English than in Romanian.

Nota - Posizione 51

L Lei INGLESE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 51

Far more writers and directors speak English than Romanian. But demand is also crucial:

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 53

Michael Kremer’s celebrated “Population Growth and Technological Change: 1,000,000 B.C. to 1990” generalizes this insight to all of human history.[ 9]

Nota - Posizione 54

x KREMER

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 54

Small, isolated populations in places like Tasmania stagnate

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 54

Large, connected populations in places like Eurasia progress— and

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 56

Despite constant complaints about cities’ crowds and congestion, city folk gladly pay higher urban rents.

Nota - Posizione 57

LA CITTÀ ARRICCHISCE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 57

premiums to live near millions of strangers.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 57

The obvious answer is choices— choices about where to work, what to buy, how to play, and who to meet.

Nota - Posizione 59

COSA SI CERCA? PIÙ YGENTE PIÙ SCELTE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 59

choices, like ideas, come from people— suppliers

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 61

physical proximity is not essential. Thanks to modern communications

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 62

we all enjoy a vast menu of occupations, lifestyles, hobbies, cultures, and social networks

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 65

The most popular anti-population arguments now come from environmentalists.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 65

We’re not “running out” of food, fuel, or minerals.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 66

Despite occasional price spikes, real commodity prices have fallen about 1% per year for over a century.[ 11]

Nota - Posizione 66

x PREZZI IN DIM

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 67

Air and water quality in the First World have been improving for decades

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 67

limiting population to counter environmental problems is using a sword to kill a mosquito.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 68

Pollution taxes and congestion prices

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 69

The most popular argument for population growth, no doubt, is that government retirement systems depend on it.

Nota - Posizione 70

PENSIONI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 70

Social Security and Medicare are pyramid schemes;

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 77

The most neglected benefit of population growth, though, is that more people get to exist.

Nota - Posizione 77

GIFT OF LIFE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 78

everyone is glad

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 78

the magic of hedonic adaptation,

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 78

consider themselves happy— even when severely handicapped or mired in Third World

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 80

a gift so reliably better than nothing?

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 81

Just picture a world so crowded that there’s no room to move.

Nota - Posizione 82

IMMAGINAZIONI IRREALISTICHE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 82

no sign that the real world

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 82

people and good outcomes go hand in hand— and

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 83

Population, Policy, and Persuasion

Nota - Posizione 84

T

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 87

Coercive policies to promote fertility

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 87

Romania banned contraception to boost its birth rate.[ 16]

Nota - Posizione 88

3 PAESI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 88

Scandinavia’s “family friendly” parental leave regulations and child care subsidies.[ 17]

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 89

French policy has been explicitly natalist since the 1930s.[ 18]

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 90

decision to have a child is so personal that even nonlibertarians recoil at the prospect of applying social engineering to it.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 93

Relaxing or abolishing immigration restrictions

Nota - Posizione 93

POLITICHE LIBRTARIE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 101

best available evidence implies that giving parents one-shot tax credits for every child they bring into the world would literally pay for itself.

Nota - Posizione 102

x CREDITO

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 103

What is the total “fiscal externality” of a new baby— the

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 104

Second: How much do you have to pay people to persuade them to have another child?

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 106

externality of a new baby are positive and large.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 106

Wolf et al

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 107

positive externality of $ 217,000 in 2009 dollars— roughly

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 108

Estimates of the responsiveness of fertility

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 109

Milligan (2005),

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 109

It finds that a baby bonus of Can $ 1000— just 5% of per-capita GDP— increased the probability of having a child by 16.9%.[ 25]

Nota - Posizione 110

x QUANTO CI VUOLE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 110

Quebec’s total fertility rate at the time was roughly 1.5, this implies roughly a .25 increase in the total fertility rate. Since you get about one additional child for every four bonuses, the total cost per child created equals 20% of per-capita GDP.

Nota - Posizione 112

C

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 113

natalist tax credits are a fiscal free lunch.[ 26]

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 114

government can capture an income stream with a present value of $ 217,000 by foregoing $ 9000

Nota - Posizione 114

x CONC

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 119

a viable apolitical remedy for low fertility

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 122

people underestimate not just the social benefits of having kids, but the privatebenefits as well.

Nota - Posizione 123

TESI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 123

Parents emotionally overcharge themselves

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 125

four decades of adoption and twin research

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 126

high-effort parenting is greatly overrated.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 126

The estimated effect of parents on health, intelligence, happiness, success, character, and values usually ranges from small to zero.[ 29]

Nota - Posizione 127

x GEMELLI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 128

styles within this vaguely normal range are about equally good.[ 30]

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 129

make fewer painful sacrifices,

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 130

focus on enjoying their time with their children.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 130

kids you want are cheaper than you think.[ 31]

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 131

Buy more.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 141

Correction on Fiscal Externalities

Nota - Posizione 141

T

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 210

Douglas Wolf et al. forthcoming. “The Fiscal Externalities of Becoming a Parent.” Population and Development Review.

Nota - Posizione 210

x

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 212

Kevin Milligan. 2005. “Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility.” Review of Economics and Statistics 87, pp. 539-555.

Nota - Posizione 213

x

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 227

Want to Bet? A Reply to Greg Clark

Nota - Posizione 228

T

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 233

Greg Clark freely admits that the last two centuries have been wonderful for mankind. But will current trends continue?

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 235

“for 99.9% of human history, up till 1800, the winner in that competition was resource scarcity.”

Nota - Posizione 235

x MALTHUSIANI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 238

Population, per-capita income, technology, science, literacy, culture, democracy, lifespan, and international trade exploded. Slavery, monarchy, and death from infectious disease withered away; war itself is poised to join them.

Nota - Posizione 240

x ULTIMI DUE SECOLI

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 245

New ideas are the main driver

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 245

population increases both the supply and demand for new ideas.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 246

economies of scale as one social benefit

Nota - Posizione 247

X IL MALTHUSIANO

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 247

he neglects the far more important effect on innovation.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 256

Negative externalities of fertility?

Nota - Posizione 256

OB 3

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 258

any negative effect of population on living standards is internal to the family.

Nota - Posizione 258

RISPOSTA

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 259

When people think about overcrowding or overpopulation, they typically imagine that if, for example, I had not been born, everyone else would have a slightly bigger share of the pie. The truth is that if I had not been born, both of my sisters would have substantially bigger shares of the pie and everybody else’s share would be pretty much the same as it is now.[ 2]

Nota - Posizione 261

x EQUIVOCO SULLE ESTERNALITÀ

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 262

negative externalities, if any, are intra-family.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 272

Connelly’s Fears

Nota - Posizione 272

T

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 278

Connelly doesn’t deny that fertility is good. But he’s afraid of the consequences of admitting that fertility is good.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 281

it seems like libertarians should be afraid to say that anything besides liberty is good.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 282

As soon as you say that “prosperity is good,” plenty of statists will leap to advocate state action to increase prosperity.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 284

you could call the entire Marxist movement “pro-prosperity”— their

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 286

Should libertarians be afraid to praise these as well? I don’t think so.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 310

The Psychology and Economics of Parenting– Reply to Betsey Stevenson

Nota - Posizione 310

T

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 317

Parents are indeed unhappier, but I doubt that

Nota - Posizione 318

.....

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 319

in any absolute sense.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 319

happiness gap between the married and unmarried is vastly greater

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 336

family size is increasing in income after controlling for education— suggesting

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 337

elite values, not high income per se, drives the raw negative correlation between income and number of children.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 346

Clark’s Muted Malthusianism

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 369

Greg rejects Landsburg’s

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 371

externality, if it exists, is a reduction in wages for other members

Nota - Posizione 371

CLARK CONFUTA LAMD

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 372

Caplan’s kids are potentially reducing my kids’ earnings.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 375

Falling wages are a transfer from workers to employers (and indirectly, to consumers), not a negative externality.

Nota - Posizione 376

CONFUTAZIONE DI CLARK

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 382

The more populous periods of human history— most obviously the last few centuries— clearly produced more scientific, technological, and cultural innovations than earlier, less populous periods.

Nota - Posizione 383

X + POP + IDEE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 383

More populous countries today produce many more scientific, technological, and cultural innovations

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 389

why no Industrial Revolution in China by 1 AD, or 1000 AD?

Nota - Posizione 390

PUZZLE

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 391

during this period, China wasa major source of new ideas in the world; see Charles Murray’s Human Accomplishment.

Nota - Posizione 393

x RISP

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 394

The real puzzle comes later, when China stagnates despite its high population. The mainstream solution to this puzzle, which I see little reason to doubt, is that the Chinese government forfeited its many advantages by deliberately suppressing innovation and communication with the outside world.

Nota - Posizione 396

x CASO CINA

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 397

Fertility and the Gift of Life

Nota - Posizione 397

T

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 412

crimes of anti-natalism are far worse than those of pro-natalism,

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 427

The Cost of Natalist Tax Credits, the Magnitude of Coercion, and the Value of People

Nota - Posizione 428

T

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 446

it seems much more wrong to force a woman to have an abortion than to prevent her from having an abortion.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 449

all else equal, coercing more people is worse than coercing fewer.

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 449

most women do not want and will not seek abortions

Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 466

Population, Land, and Movies: Another Reply to Clark

Nota - Posizione 466

T