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lunedì 24 settembre 2018

How To Make Decisions Like A Professional Poker Player annie duke

How To Make Decisions Like A Professional Poker Player
annie duke
Citation (APA): duke, a. (2018). How To Make Decisions Like A Professional Poker Player [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com

Parte introduttiva
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 2
How To Make Decisions Like A Professional Poker Player By annie duke
Nota - Posizione 3
Tttttttt
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 7
Avoid making stupid decisions, make the right ones
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IL SEGRETO DEL SUCCESSO...LA VITA È UNA SEQUELA DI DECISIONI
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 10
Annie Duke
Nota - Posizione 10
L AUTRICE DEL LIBRO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 11
Thinking in Bets:
Nota - Posizione 11
IL LIBRO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 11
“Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.
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NO AL MODELLO SCACCHISTICO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 12
If you lose at a game of chess, it must be because there were better moves that you didn’t make
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Ccccccc
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 13
defining difference between chess and life is information asymmetry.
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SCACCHI E VITA
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 14
a better metaphor for making decisions in life is poker:
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UNA METAFORA MGLIORE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 15
uncertainty, risk, and occasional deception,
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C È SIA NELLA VITA CHE NJEL POKER
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 17
Bad Results Or Bad Decisions?
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Ttttttt
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 18
without your seat-belt on. You run a few red lights. Miraculously, nobody is hurt,
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OTRIMI RISULTATI CON DECISIONI SBAGLIATE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 22
We often decide whether a decision is good or not based on its outcome.
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PURTROPPO
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I have yet to come across someone who doesn’t identify their best and worst results rather than their best and worst decisions.”
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SONDAGGIO TRA I MANAGER: QUALI SONO STATE LE TUE DECISIONI MIGLIORI?…REGOPLARMENTE SI PARLA DEI SUCCESSI
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we tend to overestimate the impact of our decisions
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IL BIAS CHE CONFONDE DECISIONE E RISULTATI
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What Are The Odds Like?
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Tttttttt
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the quality of our decisions and luck.
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IL BUON DECISORE SA DISCERNERE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 40
“One of the reasons we don’t naturally think of decisions as bets is because we get hung up on the zero-sum nature of the betting
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L ANALOGIA COL POKER NN CI VIENE FACILE....XCHÈ?
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 41
the gains and losses are symmetrical.
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NELLA VITA CI SEMBRA DIFERENTE
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Who are we playing against then?
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Cccccccc
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we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing. […]
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PER VEDERE LA SCOMMESSA UTILIZZIAMO NA METAFORA ANCORA DIFFERENTE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 46
Thinking In Bets
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Ttttttttttt
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We once thought the Earth was at the centre of the universe.
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ERRORI STORICI
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We believed that diseases were caused by bad air.
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ANCORA
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treating illnesses with the practice of bloodletting.
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AMCORA
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we make mistakes all the time,
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CONCLUSIONE
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Those past beliefs — no matter how ridiculous they sound now — were made with the information we had then.
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MA... ERRORI GIUSTI DA FARE
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To dismiss the thinkers behind those theories would be falling into the trap of resulting.
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IL ILENIA AS DEL RISULTATO
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You’re likely to lose more often than when you win.
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UNA COSA CHE CONOSCE E ACCETTA IL GIOCATORE DI POKER
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how you lose
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L NCA COSA CHE CONTA
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I’ve Got A Terrible Hand
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Ttttttttt
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“if there weren’t luck involved, I would win every time.”
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PHIL HELLMUTH
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reject information that runs contradictory to what we believe.
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NOI VOGLIAMO ESSERE COERENTI...X QS SELEZIONIAMO
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Being smart doesn’t help.
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LA NOTIZIA PIÙ TRISTE...SELEZIONA ANCHE L NTELLIGENTONE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 60
“The smarter you are, the better you are at constructing a narrative that supports your beliefs,
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ANZI GLI NTELLUGENTI SONO I MIGLIORI
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 63
We do all sorts of mental gymnastics to reason towards a conclusion that we desire.
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LA GINNASTICA MENTALE
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self-serving bias:
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NOME
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take credit for good outcomes and blame the negative
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TIPICO
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In multiple-vehicle accidents, 91% of drivers blamed someone else.
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LA COLPA DELL ONCIDENTE
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in single-vehicle accidents, 37% of drivers still found a way to pin the blame on someone else.”
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CLAMOROSO
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Stacking The Deck
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Tttttttttt
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 70
integrate uncertainty into decision making.
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LO SCOPO
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Imagine that you have to put money on every decision you make.
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FANTASIE CHE AIUTANO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 72
you start questioning everything you know.
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PROBABILMENTE
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Having skin in the game changes everything.
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CONCLUSIONE
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when the stakes are high —
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L IDEALE
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The inclination to preserve our self-esteem becomes secondary when money is at stake.
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DENARO E AUTOSTIMA
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Placing Your Bet
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Ttttttttttt

venerdì 26 maggio 2017

La scommessa come bussola

Il miglior modo per prendere le decisioni è essere informati e il miglior modo per informarsi è conoscere quello che gli altri sanno. Robin Hanson parte da questo assunto per proporre una soluzione che corregga gli errori decisionali più comuni. Il suo saggio si intitola “Decision Markets”.
Agire sulla testa delle persone è decisivo:
… The human part of any large intelligent system is by far the most intelligent part. As long as this remains true, the biggest system advancements will come from aids that fill big holes in human abilities, rather than from artifacts that stretch engineers' abilities. Consider Post-it Notes or, better yet, plain paper notepads. These probably seemed like trivial ideas, but they turned out to be terribly useful…
Condividere le informazioni non è facile come si pensa: chi deve offrire info non sempre ha i giusti incentivi  e chi deve ottenerle spesso è riluttante poiché teme di guastare i suoi pre-concetti:
… Consider, for example, a clearly important policy question such as, How would crime rates change if more citizens could legally carry hidden guns?… I suspect that the existence of such divergent opinions reflects the fact that we suffer from a serious failure to share information… The real problem is not finding more words, but judging who really knows about the topic and whether these experts are saying what they know. We are in many ways bit-full, yet information-poor…
Che fare? La proposta:
… I suggest that speculative markets are a neglected way to help us find out what people know. Such markets pool the information that is known… Speculative markets are decentralized and relatively egalitarian, and they can offer direct, concise, timely, and precise estimates in answer to questions we pose. These estimates are self-consistent across a wide range of issues and respond quickly to new information. They also seem to be cheap and relatively accurate
Per capire come funziona, torniamo al problema delle armi:
… Imagine that we created markets where people could bet on future crime rates, conditional on allowing or not allowing more hidden guns. That is, if the market prices predicted that murder rates would be 10 percent higher should a certain hidden-gun bill pass, then anyone who thought this estimate too high could easily identify a particular profitable trade… if market prices said that crime rates would be 10 percent higher given more hidden guns, most nonexperts would accept this estimate as our "best answer" or as a neutral "consensus."…
L’incentivo all’onestà intellettuale è palese:
… Speculators, in turn, would have a clear incentive to be careful and honest in contributing what they know and in judging what advocates know… speculators must "put their money where their mouth is."
C’è pur sempre bisogno di un terzo:
… Next, you must choose some particular trusted third party who will finally declare a murder rate M within [0,1] and determine whether bill B passed…
E i rischi di sabotaggio?
… Finally, you have to decide how much to subsidize this market. If interest in your topic is strong enough, simply creating these markets might induce people to trade in them. Failing that, sufficient interest might be induced if someone committed to make a policy choice based on the market estimate… You can also safely and directly subsidize a market to induce more participation…
Abbiamo fatto le esempio del nesso tra armi e crimini, in realtà le materie dove gli speculatori potrebbero dire la loro sono parecchie:
… Murder rates-with or without capital punishment? • Average mortality rates-with or without national health insurance? • Health-care spending-with expanded or curtailed use of health maintenance organizations? • Employment change-raise minimum wage or rescind NAFTA? • Global sea-level and temperature changes-impose or not impose a carbon dioxide tax? • Military casualties-with a Republican or a Democratic president? • Stock prices-with a Republican- or Democrat-controlled U.S. Congress? • World per capita food consumption-raise or lower average tariffs? • Student test scores-with or without school choice or voucher reform? • Future national economic growth-raise or lower interest rates, or with or without an education subsidy?…
Ma le speculazioni di mercato hanno esiti affidabili?
… decades of research on the efficiency of financial markets have found little price-relevant information that is not reflected in market prices… Any inefficiencies seem to be weak and to go away with publicity, because they represent a profit opportunity. If you think the current price is too low, you expect to profit by buying now and selling later, and buying now will raise the price… For example, orange juice futures prices have been shown to improve on government weather forecasts… Also, markets where traders can bet on election results predict vote totals better than opinion polls
Chissà come mai ma quando in ballo c’è il nostro denaro molti bias cognitivi si dileguano e la qualità delle scelte migliora sensibilmente:
… while most traders tended to suffer from cognitive biases such as expecting others to agree with them, the most active traders were not biased this way-and active traders set the prices. Speculative markets thus seem to induce the real experts to self-select and participate more…
I mercati devono essere sufficientemente “densi” per funzionare, in questo senso le sperimentazioni messe in campo al momento sono abbastanza incoraggianti:
… Older economics writings sometimes give the impression that speculative markets will not function unless you have thousands of traders frequently trading millions of dollars worth of goods. Recent Web markets, however, clearly show that markets can be much smaller and slower than this…
Con il web i costi della “speculocrazia” si abbassano notevolmente e l’istituto della “scommessa” migliora la sua fama man mano che nei vari campi emerge la sua utilità sociale.
…  Until the last few centuries, the cost of simply handling trades was enough to sharply limit the number of speculative markets that could be made widely available. Yet today, ebay.com routinely sells $10 items by having a handful of people bid a few times each over a period of a week… More important, most speculative markets are now illegal. The short history of financial market regulation is that everything was once illegal until limited exemptions were granted for specific purposes… Gradually, exceptions were granted for what came to be seen as worthy purposes, such as teaching people about horses (horseracing) or raising state revenue (lotteries)… Stocks were allowed for the purpose of capitalizing firms… insurance was allowed to let individuals hedge risks… commodity futures and financial derivatives were allowed to let firms hedge more risks…
Una via per testare i “Decision Market” potrebbe essere quella di consigliarne l’adozione all’interno delle corporation:
… how can we test prototypes if IA markets are generally illegal? Well, there is one plausible loophole (besides offshore gambling), which I have saved for those of you who are still reading this far: internal corporate markets…
E in effetti qualcuno già traffica con questi strumenti:
… several companies, including Hewlett-Packard and Siemens, have begun experimenting with real-money internal speculative markets for estimating things such as future sales…