HL Chapter 2 Modes le 3 transizioni: uomo-cacciatore-agricoltore-industriale-artificiale

Chapter 2 Modes
Note:2@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Yellow highlight | Location: 379

Precedents
Note:Ttttttttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 380

A review of the biggest past changes offers a weak basis for expectations about the magnitudes and types of future changes.
Note:IL METODO

Yellow highlight | Location: 382

three key transitions: the introduction of humans, farming, and industry.
Note:TRE GRANDI TRANSIZIONI

Yellow highlight | Location: 383

Humans foraged, that is, searched, for food from a few million to about 10 000 years ago. From then until a few hundred years ago, we farmed and herded.
Note:STORIA DELL UOMO

Yellow highlight | Location: 385

Social group sizes have steadily increased over this history.
Note:DIMENSIONI GRUPPO

Yellow highlight | Location: 389

These sizes fit a simple if mysterious pattern: each era’s community sizes have been roughly the square of the previous era’s sizes; a band is roughly a group of groups, a village is roughly a band of bands, and a city is roughly a village of villages.
Note:LEGGE DEL QUADRATO

Yellow highlight | Location: 392

About 20 billion humans have been born since 1750, roughly 50 to a 100 billion were born between 10 000 years ago and 1750, and a similar number of near-humans were born in the million or so years before 10 000 years ago (Haub 2011
Note:NUMERI

Yellow highlight | Location: 403

maybe primates needed sufficient cognitive abilities before they could switch to slowly accumulating innovations via culture, rather than via genes.
Note:IL GRANDE SALTO DELKA CRESCITA...

Yellow highlight | Location: 408

What if new modes of growth and information diffusion are possible, modes that we have not yet seen because they are not yet feasible with our current technology
Note:ccccccccDAI GENI ALLA CULTURA ALLA

Yellow highlight | Location: 415

given the previous pattern of era community sizes being roughly the square of prior era community sizes, communities in the next era might hold roughly a trillion people.
Note:ESTRAPOLAZIONE SULLA POPOLAZIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 417

If the pattern of past growth rate changes continues, a new growth era will appear sometime in the next century or so. At that point, within the space of roughly five years the world economy might change from current growth rates to doubling steadily roughly every few weeks or months. And within a year or two of this new doubling rate, the economy in such a new era might have doubled another 10 times, and thus could plausibly be ready to change yet again to a new era, perhaps even one that doubles in hours.

Yellow highlight | Location: 423

Prior Eras
Note:Nttttttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 425

They lived something like today’s chimps and bonobos, in large sexually promiscuous groups with complex and intense Machiavellian politics, and using unusually large brains to manage such politics.
Note:PRIMATI PRE UMANI...BANDE

Yellow highlight | Location: 428

Pre-human primates were split into many species, one of which eventually evolved a strong cultural capacity, that is, ways to reliably copy associates’ detailed behaviors.
Note:NASCE L UOMO E LA CULTURA...MOLTO PIÙ VELOCE DELLA GENETICA

Yellow highlight | Location: 431

human foragers had longer lives, larger brains and bodies, stronger mating pair bonds, larger social groups, better relations between neighboring groups, a greater division of labor, and more mobility.
Note:RISPETTO AGLI ALTRI PRIMATI

Yellow highlight | Location: 434

Tools and language enabled foragers to enforce general norms against overt dominance,
Note:EGALITARISMO

Yellow highlight | Location: 435

Groups didn’t war, although individuals were sometimes violent
Note:GRAZIE ALLA MOBILITÀ E ALL EGUAGLIANZA

Yellow highlight | Location: 439

Roughly 10 000 years ago, when humans acquired a sufficient density and reliability of food sources, they began to “farm,” that is, to stay near local plants and animals instead of wandering the wild.
Note:LA SVOLTA

Yellow highlight | Location: 441

The settlement and density of farmers enabled both trade and war, both of which complemented property in items, land, wives, and slaves. Farmer advantages in war, coming in part from their higher density, helped to ensure that farming replaced foraging.
Note:GUERRA E SCHIAVITÙ

Yellow highlight | Location: 443

Compared with foragers, farmers became richer in material comforts, but poorer in leisure time.
Note:TRADE OFF

Yellow highlight | Location: 444

Farmers’ increased food reliability also encouraged less sharing and stronger property rights.
Note:EGOISMO E DISEGUAGLIANZA

Yellow highlight | Location: 449

farmers spent less time on play such as music and art. Instead, farmers played more competitively such as by introducing competitive sports.
Note:RITUALI MENO MERCATO NTENSI

Yellow highlight | Location: 452

Many farmer-era changes, such as explicit dominance, group violence, stable locations, less art, less varied diets, less sharing, and easier mental work, can be understood as farmers partially reverting back to the ways typical of non-human primates.
Note:LA VITA DURA DELL AGRICOLTORE...ERANO ANCHE PIÙ MALATICCI VIVENDO IN GRANDI GRUPPI

Yellow highlight | Location: 455

Stronger pressures to conform, and the introduction of stronger religions with moralizing gods, added more pressures to act like farmers.
Note:LE ARMI VINCENTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 456

more reliable access to the mood-altering drug of alcohol, and writing later allowed the accumulation and sharing of persuasive propaganda and stories.
Note:LA NARRAZIONE...INTRODUSSERO ANCHE IL BACIO ROMANTICO

Yellow highlight | Location: 461

Farmers cared more about politeness, self-control, self-sacrifice, and bravery in war. Farmers planned ahead more, disciplined their children more, had more children in good times, and were less accepting of pre- and extra-marital sex.
Note:LE VIRTÙ

Yellow highlight | Location: 463

rates of death from war, that is, organized conflict, have consistently fallen (Pinker 2011). Interest rates have also consistently fallen, reflecting more long-term planning,

Note | Location: 465

DA 10000 ANNI IN QUA

Yellow highlight | Location: 465

Cities seem to have predated farming, and may have helped initiate farming. The first cities mainly offered monumental architecture for large rituals.
Note:RUOLO DELLE CITTÀ

Yellow highlight | Location: 473

Our Era
Note:TttttttttttINDUSTRIALE

Yellow highlight | Location: 475

Such factors may have included technology levels, communication or travel costs, the division of labor, trading region scope, organization size, savings rate, and expert network connectedness.
Note:IL FATTORE DECISIVO CHE HA SUPERATO LA SOGLIA CRITICA E FATTO SCATTARE LA RIVOLUZ INDUSTRIALE

Yellow highlight | Location: 477

fast changing clothes fashions,
Note:PRIMO EFFETTO...LA MODA

Yellow highlight | Location: 478

promoted a general taste for exploration, science, and innovation
Note:CULTURA

Yellow highlight | Location: 480

Whereas geography mattered greatly for prosperity during the farming era, social institutions came to matter more for prosperity during the industry era
Note:DALLA GWOGRAFIA ALLE ISTITUZIONI

Yellow highlight | Location: 483

Forager sleep patterns are similar to ours today (Yetish et al. 2015), but in the winter in cold climates farmers tended to sleep in 4-hour blocks broken by a serene 2-hour midnight wakeful period (Strand 2015
Note:DOPO LA RIVOL IL SONNO SI FA PIÙ COMPRESSO

Yellow highlight | Location: 485

Cheaper glass allows more people to see well,
Note:OCCHI

Yellow highlight | Location: 486

Cheaper clocks make our lives more scheduled,
Note:OROLOGI

Yellow highlight | Location: 487

cheaper soap, underwear, dinnerware, and sewers have made us cleaner.
Note:PULIZIA

Yellow highlight | Location: 487

Cheaper refrigeration gives us more kinds of food,
Note:CIBO

Yellow highlight | Location: 487

cheaper maps, engines, and the wheel (used much less before) let us visit more places more often.
Note:VIAGGI

Yellow highlight | Location: 489

mood-altering drugs are more widely available
Note:SOGNARE

Yellow highlight | Location: 491

propaganda and stories have became more persuasive, and more easily distributed.
Note:NARRAZIONI

Yellow highlight | Location: 496

political coalitions became stronger and more often defined by ideologies, instead of by locations, families, or ethnicities.
Note:IDEOLOGIA

Yellow highlight | Location: 498

Cities moved from holding a few percent of the population to holding the majority.
Note:CITTÀ

Yellow highlight | Location: 499

Law came to be dominated by specialists such as lawyers and police
Note:AZZERATO L INFORMALISMO

Yellow highlight | Location: 499

Empires that rarely mattered much to ordinary farmers were replaced by nations,
Note:LA NAZIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 505

The industrial era has also seen a steady fall in fertility and a steady rise in life-span, per-person income, abstract intelligence, leisure time, peace, promiscuity, romance, civility, mentally challenging work, and medical and art spending (Flynn 2007; Pinker 2011).
Note:ALTRE VARIABILI

Yellow highlight | Location: 508

we industrial people are rich.
Note:IN SINTESI

Yellow highlight | Location: 511

Compared with the farming era, industry has also seen more egalitarianism, fewer overt class distinctions, and more emphasis on individual self-direction.
Note:TORNA L EGALITARISMO DA ABBONDANZA

Yellow highlight | Location: 514

This increased individualism has led to more product and behavior variety, and fewer overt rituals.
Note:INIVIDUALISMO

Yellow highlight | Location: 516

Many of these industrial-era trends can be usefully seen as a reversion to forager values as wealth weakened farming-era social pressures.
Note:UN RITORNO AI VALORI FORAGE

Yellow highlight | Location: 517

at work industrial era people are more like hyper-farmers. Schools train us to think more abstractly, and to accept more workplace domination than most farmers would accept.
Note:TUTTAVIA....

Yellow highlight | Location: 525

we have consistently seen more and faster growth, larger organizations, more specialization and tool use, more artificial environments, more effective propaganda and drugs, more population density and inequality, and more alienation from work habits that feel natural to foragers.

Note | Location: 527

TREND OMOGENEI NELLE TRANSIZIONI

Yellow highlight | Location: 528

We’ve also seen large but inconsistent changes in health, fertility, mobility, peacefulness, art, planning horizons, the mental challenges of work, and attitudes toward sex.
Note:CAMBIAMENTI POCO CHIARI

Yellow highlight | Location: 531

When proto-humans became humans the transition inequality was huge; all but one subspecies went extinct. Even the subspecies that contributed most to our DNA, the Neanderthals, only contributed a few percent.
Note:I PERDENTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 533

The transition from foraging to farming was more equitable; a larger fraction of new farmers were foragers who switched to farming
Note:SECONDA

Yellow highlight | Location: 534

The transition from farming to industry was even more equitable;
Note:TERZA

Yellow highlight | Location: 538

Although the transition to an em world is likely to materially benefit most humans, descendants of only a tiny fraction of humans dominate the new society; most ordinary humans have a far smaller fractional influence on the world than they did before the transition.
Note:LA PROSSIMA

Yellow highlight | Location: 542

Era Values
Note:Ttttttttyttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 543

how values have changed in the past,
Note:Ttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 547

Small family values emphasize resources, dominance, and achievement, and larger communities’ values emphasize humility, caring, and dependability.
Note:ASSE FAMIGLIA NUCLEARE COMUNITÀ...USA URSS

Yellow highlight | Location: 555

Poor nations place more value on conformity, security, and traditional values such as marriage, heterosexuality, religion, patriotism, hard work, and trust in authority. In contrast, rich nations place more value on individualism, self-direction, tolerance, pleasure, nature, leisure, and trust.
Note:SECONDO ASSE...RICCHI E POVERI

Yellow highlight | Location: 557

left/liberal (rich) versus right/conservative (poor) axis.
Note:GROSSO MDO

Yellow highlight | Location: 558

Foragers tend to have values more like those of rich/liberal people today, while subsistence farmers tend to have values more like those of poor/conservative people today.
Note:AGRICOLTORI E CACCIATORE.....DA QUANDO L INDUSTRIA CI H FATTO RICCHI

Yellow highlight | Location: 563

The rich know that they can better afford to behave in ways that feel natural and admirable,
Note:IL RICCO SI CONCEDE L INDISCIPLINA....PUNTA SULL IMMAGINE COMPETE SUI CONSUMI E IL TALENTO LE ABILITÀ

Yellow highlight | Location: 563

and these behaviors tend to be forager-like. For example, the rich can better afford to focus on impressing those around them, instead of just surviving.

Yellow highlight | Location: 568

Spending on medicine has risen from 4% in 1930 to 18% today.
Note:ESEMPIO DI SPRECO CONTEMPORANEO

Yellow highlight | Location: 574

Rich-nation industrial-era values do differ from forager values in important ways, however, such as in accepting city-level density and anonymity, and high levels of workplace alienation and domination.
Note:RICCHI E CACIATORI...NN PROPRIO UGUALI

Yellow highlight | Location: 578

ems may have more farmer-like conservative values.
Note:TESI....COSÌ COME NN ESISTONO EM BAMBINI NEMMENO ESISTERANNO I PERDIGIORNO

Yellow highlight | Location: 579

Dreamtime
Note:Ttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 584

our rich industrial-era behavior is biologically maladaptive in the sense of not even approximately maximizing each person’s number of descendants.
Note:IL LUSSO DELLA MODERNITÀ....QS LUSSI ERANO INVECE IN ARMONIA CON L AMBIENTE DEI CACCIATORI

Yellow highlight | Location: 587

social rates of change have outpaced the abilities of both genetic and cultural selection to adapt our behaviors well to our new environments.
Note:NN TENAMO IL PASSO

Yellow highlight | Location: 591

Today, we tend to rely on more abstract styles of thought, which leads us to more often embrace good-looking delusions.
Note:UN SEGNALE DI ESIBIZIONISMO SPRECONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 593

evolutionary pressures encouraged foragers to unknowingly do many things to show off to each other. Our wealth today induces us to do this more,
Note:ESIBIZIONIMO SPRECONE...ALTRI ESEMPI

Yellow highlight | Location: 595

art, music, dress, and conversation
Note:Cccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 604

good sex, food, places, and objects.
Note:ALTRE TENTAZIONI DEL CACIATORE RESUSCITA

Yellow highlight | Location: 605

rhetoric, eloquence, difficulty, drama, repetition,

Note | Location: 605

Ccccccccccf

Yellow highlight | Location: 606

Today, such habits leave us with weak defenses against the super-stimuli of mass-produced food, drugs, music, TV, video games, ads, and propaganda.
Note:NELL ABBONDANZA TI ANNULLA....CONSUMIAMO PIÙ DELL OTTIMO

Yellow highlight | Location: 608

The “demographic transition” is the tendency of societies to switch to having far fewer children as they become rich, often via new status norms transmitted via education and mass media
Note:IL CENTRO DEL MANCATO ADATTAMENTO

Yellow highlight | Location: 610

in farming societies richer people tended to have more children,
Note:LA REGOLA

Yellow highlight | Location: 614

This fall in fertility is perhaps the most dramatic demonstration that our behavior is biologically maladaptive.
Note:CVD.....L AMBIENTE MUTA COSÌ VGELOCEMENTE CHE NN CI ADATIAMO

Yellow highlight | Location: 617

our cultures today also seem maladaptive, in the sense that they don’t promote their own adoption as much as they could, via war, trade, teaching, and proselytizing.
Note:ALTRO BRUTTO SEGNO

Yellow highlight | Location: 619

criminal convicts have higher fertility than do others, mostly as a result of having more partners (Yao et al. 2014).
Note:BRUTTO SEGNO

Recently, some have celebrated our maladaptive behaviors (Stanovich 2004). They see such behaviors as evidence that we are breaking free of the shackles that have enslaved us to our genetic programming.
LA CELEBRAZIONE DEL MANCATO ADATTAMENTO

Yellow highlight | Location: 639

our era is indeed an unusual dreamtime that probably cannot last.
Note:L ERA DELLO SPRECO NN DURERÀ

Yellow highlight | Location: 640

Limits
Note:TtttttttttttIL LIMITE CI BLOCCA E CI DA TEMPO DI RECUPERARE...IL RITORNO DI MALTHUS AL TEMPO DI EM

Yellow highlight | Location: 642

Unless we greatly misunderstand the nature of physical law, substantial useful innovation and economic growth must come to end “soon,” at least on cosmological timescales of billions or more years.
Note:PREVISIONE DI LUNG XIODO

Yellow highlight | Location: 644

if the economic growth rates of the last century were to continue for only a million more years, that would produce growth by a factor of 10 to the power of 3000, which seems physically impossible, at least for value gains of human-like psychologies in a universe such as ours.
Note:ESEMPIO

Yellow highlight | Location: 647

Once all available physical matter is converted into very advanced artifacts there seems little room for further rapid growth in physical resources.
Note:VALORE E TRASFORMAZIONE FOSICA...DUBBI

Yellow highlight | Location: 653

Yes, the extent and detail of virtual realities could increase without limit, but
Note:UNA VIA DI FUGA

Yellow highlight | Location: 660

In fact, for the vast majority of future history, growth and innovation are probably mostly imperceptible, and thus irrelevant for most practical purposes.
Note:TESI RIPETUTA

Yellow highlight | Location: 663

this end of innovation suggests our descendants will become extremely well adapted in a biological sense to the stable components of their environment.
Note:COROLLARIO

Yellow highlight | Location: 665

population will rise to levels consistent with a competitive evolutionary equilibrium, with living standards near adaptive subsistence levels. Such consumption levels have characterized almost all animals in Earth history, almost all humans before 200 years ago, and a billion humans today.
Note:RITORNO DI MALTHUS

Yellow highlight | Location: 684

a larger population of creatures that are smaller, use less energy, and have low living standards, behavior better adapted to their environment,
Note:IL FUTURO È DI MALTHUS

Yellow highlight | Location: 686

ems seem to have less leisure and income, better-adapted behaviors, and cultures that are more fragmented than ours in important ways.
Note:EMS ADATTIVI

Yellow highlight | Location: 687

Although growth is faster “objectively,” that is, relative to a fixed clock, to the typical em growth seems slower “subjectively,” that is, relative to the rate at which he or she personally experiences events.
CRESCITA SOGGETTIVA E OGGETTIVA