giovedì 23 agosto 2018

HL If The Future Is Big Robin Hanson

If The Future Is Big
Robin Hanson
Citation (APA): Hanson, R. (2018). If The Future Is Big [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com

Parte introduttiva
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 2
If The Future Is Big By Robin Hanson
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 5
One way to predict the future is to find patterns in the past, and extend them into the future. And across the very long term history of everything, the one most robust pattern I see is: growth.
Nota - Posizione 6
METODOLOGIA DEL FUTUROLOGO....ED ESITO DI UNA CORRETTA APPLICAZIONE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 8
Yes there have been some big widespread declines in history, such as the medieval Black Death and the decline of the Roman and Chinese empires
Nota - Posizione 9
DECLINO....MA
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 14
global warming, resource exhaustion, falling fertility, or institutional rot.
Nota - Posizione 16
POSSIBILI FONTI DI DECLINO
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If growth is our most robust expectation for the future, what does that growth suggest or imply?
Nota - Posizione 19
LA DOMANDA DI QS POST
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 20
Imagine that you lived in a small mountain village, but that a huge city lie down in the valley below. While it might be hard to see or travel to that city, the existence of that city might still change your mountain village life
Nota - Posizione 22
PERCHÈ CI INTERESSA IL FUTURO ANTERIORE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 23
The Great Filter
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1
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If our descendants continue to grow, some of them should eventually occupy and rearrange much larger volumes of space.
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PRIMA CONSEGUENZA
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Yet when we look out now into the universe seeking aliens who have visibly changed the universe near them, everything we see looks dead.
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INDIZIO PREOCCUPANTE
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how far along this filter are we?
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CI SI CHIEDE
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2
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Cryonics
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Today when people’s bodies fail them and current medical science fails them as well, we usually let their bodies decay into nothing.
Nota - Posizione 33
DOMANI SARÀ POSSIBILE SOSPENDERE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 41
Simulation Argument
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3
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Some of us study it formally, as historians, while others explore history via fiction and games.
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STUDIARE IL PASSATO
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mimic some details of a historical period
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GIOCO
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Our much more capable descendants should be able to create much more detailed simulations.
Nota - Posizione 44
IN FUTURO
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individual people simulated to such a detail that they are real living people who don’t know that they are in a simulation;
Nota - Posizione 45
POSSIBILE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 48
what is the chance that each of us is actually living in such a future simulation?
Nota - Posizione 50
DOMANDA IMBARAZZANTW
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 50
Biology Replaced
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4
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Biology has designed and can produce vast complex systems than we today only crudely understand.
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OGGI
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industry should displace or assimilate biology.
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MA L MARCO NDUSTRIA CRESCE
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self-moving autonomous biological organisms that have dominated Earth for billions of years have a limited future.
Nota - Posizione 57
DECLINO
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descendants, and any advanced aliens we meet, should be “robots.”
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EMULATORI...YOMINI NATI FUORI DAL GREMBO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 60
Who To Influence
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5
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 68
for thousands of years the average rates of return on investments have been consistently higher than economic growth rates.
Nota - Posizione 69
FARE DEL BENE NEL FUTURO...UNA TENDENZA SEMPRE PIÙ DIFFUSA
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 69
if you save and invest resources to be spent to influence people later, your influence should rise as a fraction of the world economy!
Nota - Posizione 70
QUINDI
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Where to Migrate
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7
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a big future means that most interesting places to move may be out there in that future.
Nota - Posizione 74
MIGRAZIONE PLANETARIA
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 77
you either need to live a long time, to use some sort of suspended animation such may be found in cryonics, or to have change accelerate so that the future gets bigger faster during your lifetime.
Nota - Posizione 78
ESIGENZE MIGRATORIE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 78
using rates of return on investment you can bring more resources with you
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INOLTRE...
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Who To Impress
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8
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 81
We like to pretend that we don’t care what other people think, that we just do things to please ourselves.
Nota - Posizione 82
PRETESA VELLEITARIA
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most of our available candidates will be in the distant future.
Nota - Posizione 84
DOMANI
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 86
High rates of return on investments means that a small sum today might be enough to pay several future people
Nota - Posizione 87
ESEMPIO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 88
one needs to make sure to save the right sort of data to allow future folks to make such judgements. But it seems possible to save a lot of data cheaply,
Nota - Posizione 89
SOLI OGGI MA VISIBILI IN FUTURO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 89
Incentives For Honesty
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9
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 91
One simple way to encourage honesty is to have experts make bets supporting their claims.
Nota - Posizione 91
SCOMMESSE E ONESTÀ
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 94
we can try to have the distant future settle bets.
Nota - Posizione 94
GIUDICI DEL FUTURO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 95
imagine that we save lots of data about today’s academics, including not just their publications, but also their tweets, emails, and much more. We commit to paying distant future folks to use that data to do very detailed analyses of a random one percent of today’s academics, carefully judging their overall intellectual contribution
Nota - Posizione 97
ESEMPIO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 98
rank people
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OBBIETTIVO
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 99
citation grubbing, mutual-admiration societies, and other games people play today to create the illusion of a consensus on who is good.
Nota - Posizione 99
PRATICHE SPIAZZATE
Evidenzia ( giallo) - Posizione 101
Here’s another fanciful example. Today if I sue you today for $ 10,000, we soon have a court decide if you have to pay me or not. You and I each pay big amounts for lawyers and preparation, and the court also pays to make a decision. A decision that could be wrong. Imagine instead that we saved lots of data about this lawsuit and put off the decision, committing to have distant future folks decide, when the world is wiser and analysis is cheaper. In the meantime you pay $ 10,000 immediately and in return get the asset “$ 10,000 if found innocent”, while I get the asset “$ 10,000 if found guilty.”
Nota - Posizione 105
ALTRO ESEMPIO...PROCESSO TRASLATO