If The Future Is Big
Citation (APA): Hanson, R. (2018). If The Future Is Big [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com
Parte introduttiva
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If The Future Is Big By Robin Hanson
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One way to predict the future is to find patterns in the past, and extend them into the future. And across the very long term history of everything, the one most robust pattern I see is: growth.
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METODOLOGIA DEL FUTUROLOGO....ED ESITO DI UNA CORRETTA APPLICAZIONE
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Yes there have been some big widespread declines in history, such as the medieval Black Death and the decline of the Roman and Chinese empires
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DECLINO....MA
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global warming, resource exhaustion, falling fertility, or institutional rot.
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POSSIBILI FONTI DI DECLINO
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If growth is our most robust expectation for the future, what does that growth suggest or imply?
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LA DOMANDA DI QS POST
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Imagine that you lived in a small mountain village, but that a huge city lie down in the valley below. While it might be hard to see or travel to that city, the existence of that city might still change your mountain village life
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PERCHÈ CI INTERESSA IL FUTURO ANTERIORE
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The Great Filter
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1
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If our descendants continue to grow, some of them should eventually occupy and rearrange much larger volumes of space.
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PRIMA CONSEGUENZA
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Yet when we look out now into the universe seeking aliens who have visibly changed the universe near them, everything we see looks dead.
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INDIZIO PREOCCUPANTE
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how far along this filter are we?
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CI SI CHIEDE
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2
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Cryonics
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Today when people’s bodies fail them and current medical science fails them as well, we usually let their bodies decay into nothing.
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DOMANI SARÀ POSSIBILE SOSPENDERE
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Simulation Argument
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3
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Some of us study it formally, as historians, while others explore history via fiction and games.
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STUDIARE IL PASSATO
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mimic some details of a historical period
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GIOCO
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Our much more capable descendants should be able to create much more detailed simulations.
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IN FUTURO
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individual people simulated to such a detail that they are real living people who don’t know that they are in a simulation;
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POSSIBILE
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what is the chance that each of us is actually living in such a future simulation?
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DOMANDA IMBARAZZANTW
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Biology Replaced
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4
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Biology has designed and can produce vast complex systems than we today only crudely understand.
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OGGI
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industry should displace or assimilate biology.
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MA L MARCO NDUSTRIA CRESCE
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self-moving autonomous biological organisms that have dominated Earth for billions of years have a limited future.
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DECLINO
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descendants, and any advanced aliens we meet, should be “robots.”
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EMULATORI...YOMINI NATI FUORI DAL GREMBO
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Who To Influence
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5
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for thousands of years the average rates of return on investments have been consistently higher than economic growth rates.
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FARE DEL BENE NEL FUTURO...UNA TENDENZA SEMPRE PIÙ DIFFUSA
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if you save and invest resources to be spent to influence people later, your influence should rise as a fraction of the world economy!
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QUINDI
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Where to Migrate
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7
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a big future means that most interesting places to move may be out there in that future.
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MIGRAZIONE PLANETARIA
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you either need to live a long time, to use some sort of suspended animation such may be found in cryonics, or to have change accelerate so that the future gets bigger faster during your lifetime.
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ESIGENZE MIGRATORIE
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using rates of return on investment you can bring more resources with you
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INOLTRE...
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Who To Impress
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8
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We like to pretend that we don’t care what other people think, that we just do things to please ourselves.
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PRETESA VELLEITARIA
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most of our available candidates will be in the distant future.
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DOMANI
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High rates of return on investments means that a small sum today might be enough to pay several future people
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ESEMPIO
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one needs to make sure to save the right sort of data to allow future folks to make such judgements. But it seems possible to save a lot of data cheaply,
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SOLI OGGI MA VISIBILI IN FUTURO
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Incentives For Honesty
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9
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One simple way to encourage honesty is to have experts make bets supporting their claims.
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SCOMMESSE E ONESTÀ
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we can try to have the distant future settle bets.
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GIUDICI DEL FUTURO
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imagine that we save lots of data about today’s academics, including not just their publications, but also their tweets, emails, and much more. We commit to paying distant future folks to use that data to do very detailed analyses of a random one percent of today’s academics, carefully judging their overall intellectual contribution
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ESEMPIO
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rank people
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OBBIETTIVO
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citation grubbing, mutual-admiration societies, and other games people play today to create the illusion of a consensus on who is good.
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PRATICHE SPIAZZATE
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Here’s another fanciful example. Today if I sue you today for $ 10,000, we soon have a court decide if you have to pay me or not. You and I each pay big amounts for lawyers and preparation, and the court also pays to make a decision. A decision that could be wrong. Imagine instead that we saved lots of data about this lawsuit and put off the decision, committing to have distant future folks decide, when the world is wiser and analysis is cheaper. In the meantime you pay $ 10,000 immediately and in return get the asset “$ 10,000 if found innocent”, while I get the asset “$ 10,000 if found guilty.”
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ALTRO ESEMPIO...PROCESSO TRASLATO
