HL CHAPTER 6 How Irrational Are You?

CHAPTER 6 How Irrational Are You?
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there are no objectively right or wrong answers.
Note:CARTA IGIENICA: MEGLIO SOPRA O SOTTO?

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we can agree to disagree.
Note:SUL NN OGGETTIVO

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people who try to “prove” that your choice is wrong.
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there’s no accounting for tastes.”
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The philosopher Sidney Morgenbesser once ordered pie in a restaurant. The waitress offered a choice of apple, blueberry, or cherry. Morgenbesser chose apple. Then the waitress remembered that the restaurant was out of blueberry. “In that case,” said Morgenbesser, “I’ll have the cherry.”
Note:LI STRANO CASO DI MORGENBESSER...L IRRAZIONALE

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There are plenty of other ways for a person to be irrational, and plenty of ways to get rich off those people. In fact, that’s a good definition of irrationality—you’re
Note:IRRAZIONALE...CHI FA SCOMMESSE XDENTI

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if you prefer a sure million to a sure $5 million,

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TI OFFRO 1 PER 5

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Let’s throw a ten-sided die. If the number that comes up is 5 or less, I’ll give you a cool million; if it’s 6 or less, you give me a million.
Note:DUTCH BOOK

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What I really like about that game is that I cannot lose.
Note:GIOCARE CON L IRRAZ È BELLISSIMO

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whenever you have an irrational preference, you’re vulnerable to some version of a Dutch book.
Note:DUTCHE BOOK

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The Irrationality Quiz
Note:ttttttttttttttUN QUIZ A PREFERENZA SEGUITO DA UN QUIZ A COERENZA...SOLO IL SECONDO PUÓ ESSERE IRRAZIONALE

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Which would you rather have: A. An 11 percent chance to win $1 million B. A 10 percent chance to win $5 million Which would you rather have: A. $1 million for certain B. A lottery ticket that gives you: an 89 percent chance to win $1 million a 10 percent chance to win $5 million a 1 percent chance to win $0
Note:VINCOLO DI RAZIONALITA': NON POSSO PREFERIRE 1B A 2A OPPURE 1A a 2A. DA QUESTO VINCOLO POSSIAMO DIRE CHE ALCUNE PREFERENZE SONO INCOERENTI. ESEMPIO: SE PREFERISCO 1A a 2A, POI NON POSSO PREFERIRE 2B A 1B

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Understanding Your Score
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Irrationality, as economists define it, isn’t about feelings; it’s about actions.
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in every case, if your quiz answers were wrong, I can think of a way to take all your money.
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Your Answers to Questions 1 and 2
Note:ttttttttttttt VINCOLO DI RAZIONALITA': NON POSSO PREFERIRE 1B A 2A OPPURE 1A a 2A. DA QUESTO VINCOLO POSSIAMO DIRE CHE ALCUNE PREFERENZE SONO INCOERENTI. ESEMPIO: SE PREFERISCO 1A a 2A, POI NON POSSO PREFERIRE 2B A 1B

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P. I’m going to give you a gift. Would you prefer that gift to be a cat or a dog? Q. I might give you a gift. If I do, would you prefer that gift to be a cat or a dog? R. My uncle Harry might give you a cat. If he doesn’t, I’ll give you a gift. Would you prefer that gift to be a cat or a dog?
Note:IRRAZIONALE PUÒ ESSERE SOLO LA TRIPLETTA

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you should give the same answer to all three questions.
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Would you prefer that gift to be the million dollars or the lottery ticket?
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“Question two offers me the option of a sure thing,” says Jeter. “I hate uncertainty,
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In question one, there’s no sure thing available, so I take a shot at the bigger prize. That’s choice B.”
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Your Answers to Questions 3 and 4
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Your Answers to Questions 5 and 6
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Your Answer to Question 7
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Your Answers to Questions 8 and 9
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Your Answer to Question 10
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Would you rather bet on a coin toss or on the outcome of a congressional race you know little about?
Note:NESSUNA XSONA RAZIONALE SCEGLIE LA MONETA

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You can always toss a coin to decide which congressional candidate to bet on—which means you’re betting on a coin toss either way.
Note:UN PO È SEMPRE UN PO...CONTRO L AGNOSTICISMO

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the election bet can’t be worse than a coin-toss bet.
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So You’re Irrational. Now What?
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Economic theory predicts that everyone will score 0
Note:LA VS IRRAZIONALITÀ È UN GUAIO ANCHE X GLI ECONOMISTI

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Give up. Admit that the rationality assumption is false,
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Find a creative interpretation.
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Deny the results.
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highly fanciful situations
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Deny the relevance of the results.
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economists are rarely called upon to predict behavior in Russian roulette
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Rejoice. People are irrational. That means we have something useful to teach them! Get the word out: Take an economics class,