HL CHAPTER 7 Law School Admissions Test

CHAPTER 7 Law School Admissions Test
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think clearly about how to assess evidence.
Note:LA PRIMA DOTE DEL GIUDICE

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1 Reasonable Doubt
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While you weren’t looking, I reached into one of these urns and randomly drew out a dozen balls. (I flipped a fair coin to choose the urn.) As you can see, 4 of those balls were white and 8 were black.
Note:HO DUE URNE DI 100…70/30 NELLA PRIMA E 30/70 NELLA SECONDA

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SOLUTION: It’s roughly 98 percent probable that I drew from the right urn.
Note:SOLUZIONE

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The decision theorist Howard Raiffa once posed this problem (with some minor changes) to a group of lawyers at a cocktail party
Note:RAIFFA

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life is just plain perverse, so I would bet on the left-hand urn!
Note:TIPICA RISPOSTA ESTREMA...MA ANCHE CHI RISPONDEVA CORRETTAMENTE NN QUANTIFICAVA

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the odds might have gone up from 50–50 to about 55–45.
Note:I NUMERI DATI

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beyond a reasonable doubt.
Note:UNA DIFFERENZA RILEVANTE

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even statistics students tend to cluster their guesses around 70
Note:AMMETTIAMOLO...

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Is 98 percent really beyond a reasonable doubt?
Note:ALTRO PROBLEMA

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There’s not much in life that we can be more than 98 percent sure of.
Note:DIREI CMQ DI SÌ

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William Blackstone, it’s better that ten guilty men escape than that one innocent suffer.
Note:LO STANDARD

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far above and beyond this standard.

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QUINDI IL 98…

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empirical evidence suggests that for real-world juries, the cutoff for reasonable doubt is somewhere around 74 percent.
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To my knowledge, no serious scholar has ever defended a bar that high. So once again I think we can safely say that 98 percent counts as well beyond a reasonable doubt.
Note:CONCLUSIONE

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The Boy with Purple Hair
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officers are told to be on the lookout for a suspect with naturally purple hair.
Note:IL DNA DEL COLPEVOLE PARLA CHIARO

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Nathan’s
Note:INDIVIDUATO

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odds against it are a million to one.
Note:I CAPELLI VIOLA NATURALI SONO MOLTO RARI

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Nathan guilty beyond a reasonable doubt?
Note:DOMANDA

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On a weekday afternoon, there are about 4 million people in Manhattan.
Note:I SOSPETTATI

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as likely as Nathan to be the culprit,
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25 percent chance he’s guilty.
Note:BREVW CALCOLO

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you cannot assess evidence without weighing it against relevant background information.
Note:LA MORALE DELLA STORIA

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3 The HIV Test
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you’re infected.
Note:ESITO DEL TEST

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a 5% chance of being wrong.
Note:FALSI POSITIVI

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most people—let’s say 99 percent of your demographic group—are uninfected.
Note:INFO RILEVANTE X CAPIRE SE SIETE INFETTI

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the probability that you’re uninfected is about 84 percent.
Note:RISPOSTA

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weighing the evidence.
Note:DOVE L EVIDENZA È CHE RISULTI INFETTO

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Suppose you know you have a rare gene that renders you absolutely immune to viruses. Then surely you are entitled to laugh off the results of the HIV test, no matter how dire they appear.
Note:X CAPIRE PRENDI UN CASO ESTREMO

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The Accused Soldier
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a foot soldier is seen lobbing a grenade toward the tent that serves as headquarters for his commanding officer.
Note:ATTO IMPRUDENTE....POCO DOPO CORPI SPAPPOLATI OVUNQUE

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the grenade in question was the notorious M16.5, which explodes only half the time.
Note:LA DIFESA DEL SOLDATO...TRATTASI DI GRANATA DIFETTOSA CHE ESPLODE AL 50%

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But the prosecution is able to prove that if the grenade went off, then there’s a 90 percent chance that it killed
Note:ULTERIORE ELEMENTO...SE LA GRANATA ESPLODE UCCIDE AL 90%

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50 percent times 90 percent, or 45 percent, right? Wrong.
Note:PRIMA RISPOSTA CHE NN CONSIDERA TUTTE LE INFO

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the relevant background information is that the officer is dead.
Note:IN PARTICOLARE

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The Four Suspects

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Bob, Carol, and Ted, who smoke, and Alice, a nonsmoker.
Note:I SOSPETTI

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the odds are two to one that the culprit is a smoker.
Note:X IL PRIMO INVESTIGATORE

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the culprit is definitely female.
Note:X IL SECONDO

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Because three of the four suspects are smokers, 86 started out believing the odds were three to one that the culprit smokes.
Note:L GNORANTE PARTE DA 3 SU 4...SE LE INDAGINI ARRIVANO A 2 SU 3 EVIDENTEMENTE HANNO SCOPERTO VQUALCOSA A CARICO DEL NN FUMATORE #####

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whatever evidence he discovered must have tended to exonerate the smokers.
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6 Theft on the Moon
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You have a sealed lockbox about a cubic yard in volume, containing $100,000 in $100 bills.
Note:DA SPEDIRE SULLA LUNA

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weighs 50 kilograms.
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You give the box to your friend Al, who flies it to the moon,
Note:AL PRIMO SPEDIZIONIERE

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it still weighs 50 kilograms.
Note:UNA VOLTA SULLA LUNA

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give the box to your friend Barb, who loads it into her all-terrain vehicle
Note:SECONDO SPEDIZIONIERE

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Barb returns your lockbox. You open it and it’s empty.
Note:ALLA FINE...SPIACEVOLE SORPRESA...CHI È IL LADRO?

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7 Medieval Justice
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thrust his arm into a cauldron of boiling water and fish out a ring. If his arm was unharmed, he was exonerated. If not, he was convicted.
Note:LA SAGGEZZA MEDIEVALE....È UN METODO EFFICIENTE? PER 400 ANNI GLI INTELLETTI PIÙ SOFISTICATI IN EUROPA CREDEVANO CHE...######

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as defendants believe (superstitiously) that ordeals yield accurate verdicts, guilty defendants always confess
Note:LA RAGIONE DELL EFFICIENZA

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priests cheat by (for example) substituting tepid for boiling water,
Note:TRUCCO EMERSO NELLE STATISTICHE

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If not everyone is perfectly superstitious,
Note:ALLORA LA STORIA SI FA PIÙ COMPLICATA

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you’d expect nonbelievers to be denied the ordeal option.
Note:ESCLUSIONE DEGLI INFEDELI

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a great many trials by ordeal ended in acquittals,
Note:EVIDENZA UNO

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nonbelievers were generally exempt
Note:DUE

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ordeals were generally administered by clerics
TRE....ESOTERISMO