HL 9. The Ravens Michael Huemer1

9. The Ravens Michael Huemer1
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9.1 A Paradox of Confirmation
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if you see many black ravens, with no exceptions, you might infer that all ravens are black,
Note:INDUTTIVISMO

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We are only asking under what conditions an observation provides at least some support,
Note:QUEL CHE CI CHIEDIAMO

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if I observe a non-raven, I do not thereby have any evidence either
Note:A PRIMA VISTA

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suppose I observe a purple shoe. This object is not a raven, so, by principle III above, this observation is irrelevant
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The object is, however, a non-black non-raven.
Note:PROBLEMA

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[All non-black things are non-ravens] is logically equivalent to [All ravens are black]
Note:IL PROBLEMA CHIARO

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9.2 Solution
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Imagine that there is a giant bag labeled “non-ravens”,
Note:PRIMO METODO DI RICERCA DELLE EVIDENZE...PESCHIAMO DAL SACCO...L EVIDENZA È IRRILEVANTE

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even if there were some non-black ravens in the world, you could not have discovered any of them by this method.
Note:MOTIVO

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Method 2: There is a giant bag labeled “non-black things”.
Note:ALTRO METODO...IL SACCO DEI NN NERI

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In this case, you gain some evidence that all ravens are black.
Note:QUI L EVIDENZA PESA

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Method 3: I select a random observable object from the universe, and it turns out to be a purple shoe.
Note:TWRZO METODO

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I acquire, again, a very small amount of evidence that all ravens are black.
VIA DI MEZZO