HL Chapter 2 SYSTEMATICALLY BIASED BELIEFS ABOUT ECONOMICS

Chapter 2 SYSTEMATICALLY BIASED BELIEFS ABOUT ECONOMICS
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economists look almost uniformly hostile to the view that people suffer from systematic bias.
Note:HOMO ECONOM

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on average they get things right.
Note:L ASSUNTO

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Gary Becker championed
Note:IL CAMPIONE

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systematically fooled about the effects of policies like quotas and tariffs that have persisted for a long time.
Note:IMPOSSIBILE DA CREDERE X BECKER

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They may overestimate the dead weight loss from some policies, and underestimate it from others,
Note:SIMMETRIA

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Papers that covertly introduce systematic bias risk being “outed.”
Note:ACCADEMIA

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Stephen Coate and Stephen Morris
Note:ATTACCHI ALL ASSUNTO COMPORTAMENTALE

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“unreasonable assumptions” that voters “have biased
Note:I TERMINI USATI

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Dani Rodrik similarly laments,
Note:ALTRA LAMWNTELA

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habit of attributing myopia
Note:IL LAMENTO DI RODRIK

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demanding that their colleagues honor the ban
Note:FORTE PRESSIONE

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Evidence of Bias from Psychology and Public Opinion Research
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fortunately not prevented empirical work
Note:INSUCCESSO DELL OSTILITÀ

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Psychologists like Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
Note:EVERSORI

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overestimate the probability of vivid, memorable events
Note:ESEMPIO DELL AEROPLANO CHE CADE

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more than 50% of people put themselves in the upper half of the distribution
Note:SOPRA LA MEDIA...OVERCONFIDENCE

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systematic mistakes exist.
Note:OGGI LO SAPPIAMO

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Psychologists call this “ecological rationality”—the ability to choose sensibly in your natural habitat.
Note:ULTIMA SPIAGGIA....IL MECCANICO FALLISCE IN LABORATORIO MA NN IN OFFICINA

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voters think that the biggest item in the federal budget is foreign aid.
Note:ERRORI MALDESTRI DELL ELETTORE

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they are likely to spurn responsible politicians with realistic proposals in favor of demagogues
Note:CON SIMILI BASI

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public opinion researchers
Note:I PIÙ UTILI X SCOPRIRE LE FALSE CREDENZE

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voter bias to be common and quantitatively significant.
Note:CONCLUSIONE

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“grading” the quality of public opinion—
Note:METODO

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ask questions with objective quantitative answers,
Note:PUNTARE ALLA CHIAREZZA

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the share of the federal budget dedicated to national defense or Social Security.
Note:ESEMPI

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the National Survey of Public Knowledge of Welfare Reform and the Federal Budget.
Note:UN ESEMPIO DI FONTE

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overestimates the share of government spending on welfare
Note:UN CLASSICONE

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underestimates the share devoted to national defense
Note:ALTRO CLASSICONE

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many interesting questions are only answerable with a degree of ambiguity.
Note:PURTROPPO

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the benefits of free trade.
Note:UNA QUESTIONE AMBIGUA...COME PROCEDERE?

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They estimate voters’ “enlightened preferences
Note:ELETTORE NFORMATO

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Administer a survey of policy preferences combined with a test of objective political knowledge.
Note:TRUCCO

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Simulate what policy preferences would look like if all members of all demographic groups had the maximum level of objective political knowledge.
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how many senators each state has, who the chief justice of the Supreme Court is, whether Russia is a member of NATO,
Note:POLITICAL IQ...ESEMPIO

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If a poor man with a low Political I.Q. learned a lot more about politics but stayed poor, would he change his mind about welfare policy?
Note:LA DOMANDA A CUI POSSIAMO ORA RISPONDERE

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Systematic effects of knowledge on policy preferences are large and ubiquitous.
Note:LA CONSCENZA CI CAMBIA

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ill-informed respondents are usually more one-sided
Note:ALTHAUS...ORIGINI DEL SETTARISMO

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informed opinion on foreign policy issues is relatively more interventionist
Note:POLITICA ESTERA

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slightly more dovish
Note:E ANCHE

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favor an active international role
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less hawkish:
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informed opinion to hold more progressive attitudes on a wide variety of social policy topics,
Note:SOCIETÀ

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pro-choice,

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supportive of gay rights,
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opposed to prayer in school.
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more ideologically conservative on the scope and applications of government power.
Note:I PIÙ INFORMATI IN ECONOMIA

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expanding domestic programs,
Note:CONTRO

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prefer free market solutions over government intervention
Note:PRO

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less supportive of additional government intervention to protect the environment,
Note:CONTRO

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smaller and less powerful federal government.”
Note:PRO

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support for equal opportunity, it decreases support for equal results.
Note:IN GENERALE

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It is hard to swallow the idea that if people knew more, they would agree with you less.
Note:IDEA DIFFICILE DA DIGERIRE...SEMBRA OFFENSIVO

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After all, riches and knowledge go together. Why not conclude that more informed people favor free-market policies because the rich correctly identify their own interests?
Note:OBIEZIONE...DI CHI NN HA CAPITO COME FUNZIONA

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The distribution of enlightened preferences is more promarket than the actual distribution of preferences primarily because people of all income levels become more promarket as their political knowledge increases.
Note:RISPOSTA

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as knowledge rises, promarket views increase disproportionately in the bottom half
Note:ANZI...

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the split went from 62/38 to 47/53.
Note:SPLIT PROMARKET INFO NNINFO

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Getting Economics Back on Track
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Political scientists’ findings are frankly embarrassing for economists
Note:L IMBARAZZO X L HOMO ECONOMICUS

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Many of the most famous economists of the past, like Adam Smith and Frédéric Bastiat, obsessed over the public’s wrongheaded beliefs
Note:LA TRADIZIONE BIAS È LUNGA

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stubborn resistance to basic principles like opportunity cost and comparative advantage.
Note:CONCETTI NATI SU QUESTO IMPULSO

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Psychologists and public opinion researchers have made an impressive effort to educate economists about the realities of systematic bias.
Note:LA RIEDUCAZIONE

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Few modern economists care about the history of thought, so many of the most penetrating discussions have been ignored or forgotten.
Note:LO SCARSO SENSO DELLA STORIA TRA LE TRAPPOLE

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It is professionally risky to emphasize systematically biased beliefs in the journals,
Note:RISCHI XSONALI

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antimarket bias, antiforeign bias, make-work bias, and pessimistic bias.
Note:I QUATTRO BIAS PIÙ IMPORTANTI PER LA POLICY

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Antimarket Bias
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Commerce is, by its very essence, satanic. —Charles Baudelaire
Note:EPIGRAFE

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antimarket bias, a tendency to underestimate the economic benefits of the market mechanism.
Note:COMPETIZIONE SOTTOVALUTATA

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focus on the motives of business, and neglect the discipline imposed by competition.
Note:EGOISMO MALE =>MERCATO MALE

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Capitalism stands its trial before judges who have the sentence of death in their pockets.

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IL PESSIMISMO DI JOSEPH SHUMPETER

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“the ineradicable prejudice
Note:SECONDO JS

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Antimarket bias is not a temporary, culturally specific aberration.
Note:SISTEMATICO

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“Harnessing the ‘base’ motive of material self-interest to promote the common good is perhaps the most important social invention mankind has yet achieved.”
Note:PER CHARLES SCHULTZE E TUTTI GLI ECONOMISTI...L INVENZIONE NN APPREZZATA

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regulation is the obvious answer;
Note:LA VIA ALTERNATIVA

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Pundits rarely proclaim, “The American people want X, but they’re wrong.”
Note:TRANNE CHE IN AMBITO ECONOMICO

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The problem with democracy is not politicians’ shirking, but the public’s antimarket bias:
Note:LA POLITICA NN INGANNA MA È SOLO UNA FEDELE ESCUTRICE

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equate market payments with transfers, ignoring their incentive properties.
Note:UNA VARIANTE DELL ANTI MARKET BIAS

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People tend to see profits as a gift to the rich.
Note:…IL CASO CLASSICO

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limiting profits seems like common sense.
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“If you want to get rich, then you have to do something people will pay for.”
Note:TESI DI SMITH

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Smith’s thesis was counterintuitive to his contemporaries, and remains counterintuitive today.
Note:LA TRISTE REALTÀ

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in earlier times the leading culprit was interest or “usury.”
Note:UN CASO PRECEDENZE

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prejudice against debt markets goes back millennia:
Note:HARDWIRED?...BHOM BAWEREK

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opposition to interest has recently enjoyed a powerful revival:
Note:NELL ISLAM...TIMUR KURAN

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In Pakistan all banks were ordered in 1979 to purge interest
Note:ESEMPIO

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in 1992 the Sharia court removed various critical exemptions.
Note:Cccccccc

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The lender earns interest in exchange for delaying his consumption.
Note:COSA CI DICE L ECONOMIA

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for the same stamp would crush lending as well.
Note:SE UNO NN VUOLE ESSERE COERENTE

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Alan Blinder blames opposition to tradable pollution permits on antimarket bias.
Note:ALTRO CASO DI ANTI MARKET BIAS

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Why let people “pay to pollute,” when we can force them to cease and desist?
Note:LA LOGICA DEL PROFANO

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Blinder discusses a fascinating survey of 63 environmentalists, congressional staffers, and industry lobbyists. Not one could explain economists’ standard rationale for tradable permits.
Note:ANALFABETISMO AMBIENTALISTA

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The second most prominent avatar of antimarket bias is monopoly theories of price.
Note:ALTRO CASO

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Economists understand, however, that collusion is a Prisoners’ Dilemma.
Note:SAGGEZZA ECONOMICA

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Look at these parasites: They buy products, “mark them up,” and then resell us the “exact same thing.”

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ALTRO CASO...L ODIO SOCIALE X L INTERMEDIARIO

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Transportation, storage, and distribution are valuable services
Note:SAGGEZZA ECONOMICA

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obvious whenever you need a cold drink in the middle of nowhere.
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Capitalists join forces to keep wages at the subsistence level.
Note:ALTRA ACCUSA RICORRENTE

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if there really were a vast employer conspiracy to hold down wages, the Third World would be an especially profitable place to invest.
Note:SAGGEZZA ECONOMICA

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Its workers earn low wages because their productivity is low.
Note:LA TRISTE VERITÀ SUL TERZO MONDO

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businesses are monopolists of variable altruism.
Note:LA TEORIA DEI PREZZI DEL PROFANO

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the public links greed with almost everything bad: Capitalism is “commonly maligned for the deceit, unfairness, dishonesty, and discourtesy
Note:I PRODOTTI DEL EGOISMO

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Les Misérables:
Note:UN CANTO ESEMPLARO

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raising price and cutting quality often leads to lower profits, not higher.
Note:LE ACCUSE SONO INCOERENTI

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An outsider who eavesdrops on Krugman’s or Stiglitz’s debates with other economists might get the impression that the benefits of markets remain controversial.
Note:L ORIGLIATORE

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economists are not debating.
Note:PACIFICO SU INCENTIVI O COSPIRAZIONI

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Almost all economists recognize the core benefits of the market mechanism;
Note:Cccccccccc

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Antiforeign Bias
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skepticism about the global economy.
Note:TIPICO

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A naval blockade of Japan.
Note:LA SOLUZIONE DEL PROFANO

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A Berlin Wall at the Mexican border.
Note:ALTRA SOSTITUZIONE

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antiforeign bias, a tendency to underestimate the economic benefits of interaction with foreigners.
Note:DEF

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Popular metaphors equate foreign trade with racing and warfare,
Note:LA GUERRA COMMERCIALE

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People around the world scapegoat foreigners:
Note:IL CAPRO

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Even theorists like Paul Krugman who specialize in exceptions to the optimality of free trade frequently downplay their findings as curiosities:
Note:SIAMO AL LIMITE

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Textbooks teach that total output increases if producers specialize
Note:SPECIALIZZAZIONE

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as Steven Landsburg explains,
Note:ALDO SAVOLDELLI

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The Law of Comparative Advantage, one of most fascinating theorems in economics, shows that mutually beneficial international trade is possible even if one nation is less productive in every way.
Note:VANTAGGI RECIPROCI

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the root error as misidentification of money and wealth: “A rich country, in the same manner as a rich man, is supposed to be a country abounding in money;
Note:L'ERRORE FATALE

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It follows that trade is zero-sum,

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ZERO SUM

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why would people focus on money draining out of “the nation,” but not “the region,” “the city,” “the village,” or “the family”?
Note:IL PROBLEMA E' LO STRANIERO

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People feel all the more vulnerable when they reflect that these foreigners are not just selling us their products. They live among us.
Note:CON L'IMMIGRATO E' ANCORA PEGGIO

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Make-Work Bias
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make-work bias, a tendency to underestimate the economic benefits of conserving labor.69 Where noneconomists see the destruction of jobs, economists see the essence of economic growth—the production of more with less.
Note:LE VIRTÙ DEL NN LAVORO

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we can also create jobs by seeing to it that each worker is less productive.
Note:IL VIZIETTO DI CREARE LAVORO

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For an individual to prosper, he only needs to have a job. But society can only prosper if individuals do a job, if they create goods and services that someone wants.
Note:LA PROSPERITA'

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Bastiat ridicules the equation of prosperity with jobs as “Sisyphism,”
Note:SISIFO E IL MITO DELLA CRESCITA

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Wealth . . . increases proportionately to the increase in the ratio of result to effort.
Note:IL BIAS D ORIGINE...ABBINARE SFORZO E MERITO

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The crudest form of make-work bias is Luddite fear of the machine.
Note:UN INCARNAZIONE DEL BIAS

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Technology often creates new jobs; without the computer, there would be no jobs in computer programming or software development.
Note:PRIMA DIFESA DELLA MACCHINA

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employing more workers than you need wastes valuable labor.
Note:LA SECONDA E PIÙ FONDAMENTALE DIFESA DELLA MACCHINA...PAGARE CHI GIRA I POLLICI

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Cox and Alm aptly describe this process as “churn”:
Note:RIALLOCARE DI CONTINUO

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The drastic decline in agricultural employment:
Note:L ESEMPIO PIÙ RADICALE

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In 1800, it took nearly 95 of every 100 Americans to feed the country. In 1900, it took 40.
Note:UN DISASTRO? NO. UN ARRICCHIMENTO SPAVENTOSO

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people would rather feel compassionately than think logically.
Note:LE ORIGINI DEL BIAS

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Alan Blinder recommends extended unemployment insurance, retraining, and relocation subsidies.
Note:LA BONTÀ NN C ENTRA

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Every time we figure out how to accomplish a goal using fewer workers, it enriches society, because labor is a valuable resource.
Note:DOWNSIZING...ALTRA MATERIA DOMINATA DAL BIAS

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Bastiat insightfully observes that a loner would never fall prey to make-work bias:
Note:LA COMUNITÀ E L IO

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No solitary man would ever conclude that, in order to make sure that his own labor had something to occupy it, he should break the tools that save him labor,
Note:L ESEMPIO DEL CALZOLAIO CHE RINUNCIA AI SUOI STRUMENTI

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If you receive a washing machine as a gift, the benefit is yours; you have more free time and the same income.
Note:Cccccccc

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Pessimistic Bias
Note:Tttttttttttt

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I was told that kids around me were using drugs, and that a pusher would soon offer me some, too. Teachers warned that more and more kids would become addicts, and by the time I was in junior high I would be surrounded by them. Authority figures would occasionally speculate about our adulthood, and wonder how a country could function with such a degenerate workforce.
Note:L APOCALISSI DELLA DROGA...UNA DISTOPIA MAI REALIZZATA

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I am still waiting to be offered drugs.
Note:Ccccccccccc

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My teachers’ predictions about America’s economic future turned out to be laughable.

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PROFEZIE RISIBILI

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As a general rule, the public believes economic conditions are not as good as they really are.
Note:PESSIMISTIC BIAS

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pessimistic bias, a tendency to overestimate the severity of economic problems and underestimate the (recent) past, present, and future performance of the economy.
Note:Cccccccccc

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public lacks perspective.
Note:IL PUNTO...IL SENSO STORI CO E IL SENSO PROSPETTICO

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massive gains we take for granted.
Note:ULTIMI 100 ANNI

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to idealize conditions in the more distant past
Note:L IDEA DI PARADISO PERDUTO

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“Virtually every culture past or present has believed that men and women are not up to the standards of their parents and forebears,”
Note:ARTHUR HERMAN

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Arthur Lovejoy and George Boas
Note:L IDEA PESSIMISTICA È UNIVERSALE E PRESCINDE DALLO STADIO DI AVANZAMENTO DI UNA CIVILTA

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progress is so gradual that a few pockets of decay hide it from the public view:
Note:GRADUALISMO E SENSO DELLA STORIA

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Alexis de Tocqueville attacks pessimism as “the great sickness of our age.”
Note:NEMICI DEL PESSIMISMO

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Herbert Spencer

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intellectuals have been predicting the imminent collapse of Western civilization for more than one hundred and fifty years,
Note:DI RECENTE LE COSE VANNO SEMPRR PEGGIO

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How can high levels of pessimism coexist with constantly rising standards of living?
Note:PUZZLE

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objective conditions and subjective perceptions
Note:GAP

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Our forebears, who worked and sacrificed tirelessly in their hopes their descendants would someday be free, comfortable, healthy, and educated, might be dismayed to observe how acidly we deny we now are these things.
Note:UN OFFESA AI PADRI

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human nature connects with the apocalyptic.
Note:LA NS PSICOLOGIA

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Whether the source is the Bible or Nostradamus, Thomas Malthus, or the Club of Rome,
Note:ESEMPI SPORADICI

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There is an ongoing debate about growth slowdown.
Note:QUANDO PARLIAMO DI CATASTROFE PARLIAMO DI RALLENTAMENTO COSÌ COME QUANDO PARLIAMO DI AUSTERITY

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standard numbers inadequately adjust for the rising quality and variety of the consumption basket,
Note:PRIMA RISERVA

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GDP miss important components of our standard of living.
Note:IL RIFUGIO DEL PESSIMISTA INTELLIGENTE

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environmental quality,
Note:ESEMPIO

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In the 1960s, über-pessimist Paul Ehrlich notoriously predicted that environmental neglect would shortly lead to mass starvation.
Note:UN PRECEDENTE ILLUSTRE

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Throughout the long sweep of history, forecasts of resource scarcity have always been heard, and—just as now—the doomsayers have always claimed that the past was no guide to the future
Note:RISPISTA DI SIMON

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natural resources are getting cheaper, population density is not bad for growth, and air quality is improving
Note:LA POSIZIONE VINCENTE DI SIMON

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Michael Kremer’s seminal paper “Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990,”
Note:TESI....LA CRESCITA DELLA POPOAZIONE AUMENTA LA RICCHEZZA PRO CAPITE

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more inclusive measures cement the case for optimism, because life has also been getting better on the neglected dimensions.

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L ULTIMO RIFUGIO DEI OESSIMISTI SEMBRA VANO...MAGARI CHI È INDIETRO FISSE AL NOSTRO LIVELLO...IL MONDO SAREBBE PIÙ PULITO

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Conclusion
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