11. Self-Locating Beliefs

11. Self-Locating Beliefs
Note:11@@@@@@@@@@

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11.1 The Sleeping Beauty Paradox
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At the beginning of the week, they put a person (“Sleeping Beauty”, as we will call her) to sleep by chemical means. Then they flip a fair coin. If it comes up heads, the scientists wake up Sleeping Beauty on Monday, talk to her briefly, then put her back to sleep, using a drug that causes her to forget
Note:DESCRIZIONE

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If, on the other hand, the coin comes up tails, then the scientists wake up Beauty twice: once on Monday, and again on Tuesday. Each time, the scientists talk to her briefly, then put Beauty back to sleep using the same drug,
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When the scientists wake Beauty, they ask her one question: “What is your credence that the coin came up heads?”
Note:ccccccccc UN BEL GIORNO

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If she is perfectly rational, what answer should Beauty give?

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Ccccccccccc

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Answer 1:
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Coins have a ½ probability of coming up heads when flipped.
Note:RISPOSTA ELEMENTARE

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Answer 2:
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Suppose that the experiment were repeated with 200 subjects.
Note:100 TESTE 100 CROCI E 300 RISVEGLI. A CHE GRUPO APOARTENGO? AL PIÙ NUMEROSO QUELLO DEI "RISVEGLI CROCE". PUOI ANCHE IMMAGINARE UNA SOLA SB CHE RIPETE L ESPERIMENTO X 200 SETTIMANE E CONSIDETA I SUOI 200 RISVEGLI NOTANDO CHE BEN 200 AVVENGONO IN SEGUITO A UNA CROCE E AI 100 IN SEGUITO A UNA TESTA

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There would then be a total of 300 occasions on which someone was woken up,
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100 wakings in which the coin had come up heads, and it was now Monday 100 wakings in which the coin had come up tails, and it was now Monday 100 wakings in which the coin had come up tails, and it was now Tuesday
Note:Cccccc DETTAGLIO DEI 300 RISVEGLI

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300 wakings, of which you believe roughly 1/3 are “heads wakings”
Note:1/3 VS 2/3

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11.2 The Fine Tuning Argument
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According to many scientists, the conditions required for life to exist are extremely specific.
Note:IL DATO DI PARTENZA

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a number of physical parameters of the universe that must take on values in an extremely narrow range,
Note:LO SPECIFICO

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if the gravitational constant differed by more than 1/1040
Note:Es...1/10 ALLA 40...O TROPPO CALDO O TROPPO FREDDO

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the strength of the strong nuclear force, the strength of the electromagnetic force,
Note:ES DI ALTRI PARAMETRI

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it is very lucky that the universe started with extremely low entropy.
Note:ALTRO ESEMPIO

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the best explanation for the universe’s having such properties is that our universe was designed
Note:PER ALCUNI

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The most popular non-theistic alternative is the Multiple Universes (“Multiverse”)
Note:ALTERNATIVA

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In the many other universes where life is impossible, there just is no one around to notice this fact.
Note:DESERTO

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Does the fine tuning evidence – the fact that the universe has parameters falling within very narrow ranges that are necessary for life to exist – support the existence of multiple universes? If so, does this neutralize whatever reason we would otherwise have for accepting the Design hypothesis?
Note:LE DOMANDE CHE MI PONGO

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11.3 The Doomsday Argument
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How much longer will the human species last?
Note:LA DOMAMDA

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nuclear war.
Note:APOCALISSE 1

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biological weapon
Note:2

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giant asteroid
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superintelligent robots
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Short-lived Species:
Note:PER SEMPLICITÀ CONSIDERIAMO SOLO DUE CASI...1

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extinct within the next ten thousand years.
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Long-lived Species:
Note:2

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species will continue for more than ten thousand more years.
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human beings have existed for at least 50,000 years
Note:PRIMO DATO

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number of humans who have ever existed is surprisingly low, only about 108 billion, of which around 7.4 billion are alive now.
Note:SECONDO

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you are somewhere between the 100 billionth and the 108 billionth human
Note:TU

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that is, your “birth order”
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The probability of finding that one’s birth order is less than 108 billion is greater if one belongs to a short-lived species than it is if one belongs to a long-lived

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the fact that your birth order is less than 108 billion is evidence that you belong to a short-lived species,
Note:POICHÈ RAPPRESENTI LA MEDIA

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the hat contains either ten slips of paper, with the numbers 1 through 10 written on them, or a hundred slips of paper, with the numbers 1 through 100. You know it’s one of those two alternatives,
Note:ANALOGIA...DEVI PESCARE UN NUMERO

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It turns out to be the number 8.
Note:PESCHI...

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what should you think about the contents of the hat?
Note:EVIDENTEMENTE LA PICCOLA

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you are a random person chosen from the human species.
Note:NEL DA...ANCHE ASSUNTI I TASSI DI NATALITÀ IL NUMERO CHE PESCHI È MOLTO BASSO...QUINDI...

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Since your birth order number is relatively small,
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all three issues can be resolved in a similar manner.
Note:TESI SU DA FINE TUNING E SLEEPY

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11.4 The Multiverse : Pro and Con
Note:TttttttttttttDT DESIGN THEORY VS MT MULTIVERSE THEORY

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11.4.1 The “This Universe” Objection
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Imagine that you are scheduled to be executed by a firing squad.
Note:ANALOGIA

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you find yourself still alive.
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this event seems so unlikely that there must be some explanation.

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TUA RIFLESSIONE

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suppose it occurs to you that there might perhaps be a trillion trillion other firing squads elsewhere in the universe.
Note:SUPPOSIZIONE

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Therefore, you conclude (?), you now have good reason to think there actually are all these other firing squads.
Note:LA STRANA CONCLUSIONE

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there is no need to postulate any sort of conspiracy
Note:IN QS CASO

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I take it that this pretty obviously is not good reasoning.
Note:GIUDIZIO

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your evidence is not that at least one person somewhere in the universe has experienced this; your evidence is that you experienced this.
Note:MOTIVAZUONE DEL GIUDIZIO

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what needs to be explained is the fact that you personally survived the firing squad.
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If someone starts up a firing squad on Alpha Centauri, that doesn’t make your firing squad suddenly more likely to miss.
Note:COME SI INFLUENZANO LE PROB

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You are about to flip a coin. What is the probability that it will come up heads? 50%. But wait, here is an additional piece of information: someone in the next room is flipping a coin too. Does that make it more likely that you will flip heads? No. That makes it more likely that at least one of the coins will come up heads, but the probability that this coin will do so remains 50%.
Note:ANALOGIA DELLA FALLACIA

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Champions of the Multiverse appear to be committing the very fallacy that we have just criticized.
Note:TORNIAMO A BOMBA

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This assumes that our evidence is merely that life exists in at least one universe. But this is not correct; our evidence is that life exists in this universe.
Note:LA LORO CONCLUSIONE NN DICE NULLA SUL NS UNIVERSO

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11.4.2 In Defense of the Multiverse
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Earth contains peculiar features that make it especially hospitable to life.
Note:ALTRA ANALOGIA CHE RIABILITA L OPZIONE MT

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distances from the sun,
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appropriate size,
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large amount of surface water,
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it is only on the few planets suitable to life that any intelligent beings could have evolved to wonder about the characteristics of their planet.
Note:TUTTO NORMALE

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Now imagine someone pressing the “this planet” objection:
Note:TUTTAVIA...

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Our evidence is not merely that at least one planet somewhere is habitable; our evidence is that this planet is habitable. And however many other planets there may be, they don’t affect the habitability of this one.
Note:THIS PLANET OBJ...MA QUI NN SEMBRA AVERE FORZA...PERCHÈ?

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11.4.3 Four Cases Resolved
Note:Ttttttttttttttttt COSA CONTA 1) TEORIA...2) DESCRIZIONE EVIDENZA 3) QUALITÀ E SOSTITUIBILITÀ

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a theory that accounts for all four of the above cases: the Firing Squad, the Coin Flip, Planet Earth, and the Uranium case.
Note:COSA CERCHIAMO

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Your evidence supports a hypothesis, H, provided that the truth of H would make it more likely that you would receive that qualitative evidence than it would be if H were false.
Note:LA TEORIACENTRALE DESCRIVERE CORRETTAMENTE L'ESPERIENZA. ESEMPIO FUCILAZIONE: IO SOPRAVVIVO (IL FATTO CHE ESISTANO MILIARDI DI PLOTONI NON SPIEGA CHE UNO SOPRAVVIVERA' NON CHE QUELL'UNO SIA IO...NN C È SOSTITUIBILITÀ). ESEMPIO DIECI TESTE: IO LE FACCIO (IL FATTO CHE SIAMO MILIARDI DI PERSONE A LANCIARE NON ALZA LA PROB CHE SIA PROPRIO IO A FARE LE DIECI TESTE, SPIEGA SOLO CHE UNO LE FARA'...NN C È SOSTITUIBILITÀ). MULTIVERSO: IL NOSTRO UNIVERSO OSPITA LA VITA (SE ESISTONO MOLTI UNIVERSI IN GRADO DI OSPITARE LA VITA AUMENTA LA PROB DELLA NOSTRA EVIDENZA. MA SE GLI ALTRI UNIVERSI SONO STERILI NN C È SOSTITUIBILITÀ)

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what needs to be explained is always your having a certain set of evidence, not merely someone’s
Note:PRIMA PRECISAZIONE...TU...NN UNO QUALSIASI

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The evidence itself should be understood qualitatively.
Note:SECONDA...QUALITÀ NN QUANTITÀ...ES CONTA IL COLORE NN IL NUMERO...ASSUNTO NECESSARIO X GARANTIRE LA SOSTITUIBILITÀ NEI MULTIPLI. Es SU QS O SU UN ALTRA TERRA GEMELLA LA MIA ESPERIENZA È LA MEDESIMA SOLO SE CONTA ESCLUSIVAMENTE LA QUALITÀ

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explanatoriness of a hypothesis is evaluated relative to the alternatives.
Note:TERZA CONDIZIONE

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In the Firing Squad case, your evidence consists of an experience of surviving a firing squad.
Note:PRIMO CASO

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The existence of other firing squads raises the probability that there will be some other people having that experience, but it does not affect your probability of having that experience.
Note:NN PASSA IL TEST

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In the Coin Flip case, your evidence is your experience of flipping a coin ten times and seeing it come up heads every time.
Note:SECONDO CASO

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The probability of your receiving this evidence if there are many other coins being flipped elsewhere by other people is also (1/2)10.
Note:NN PASSA IL TEST

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In the Planet Earth case, your evidence consists of your experience of living on a life-sustaining planet.

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if there were many planets in the universe, it is much more likely that you would find yourself existing,
Note:PASSA IL TEST...UN PÒ- AL CONTRARIO - COMEVINCERE LA LOTTERIA...IL M DEI PARTECIPANTI CONTA: È PIÙ PROBABILE SE I PARTECIPANTI SONO POCHI

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Why not describe the evidence as being that this specific planet that you find yourself on is life-sustaining, rather than merely that you find yourself on some life-sustaining planet?
Note:OBIEZIONE..XCHÈ NN CONSIDERARE QLCS DI PIÙ INFORMATIVO

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The answer is that your evidence does not really identify a specific, individual planet. If you had instead found yourself on another planet, qualitatively like Earth but located in another galaxy, you would not have noticed the difference; thus, we should count the evidence you would have had in that case as being the same as the evidence you actually have.
Note:RISPOSTA....ECCO A COSA SERVE LA QUALITÀ

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why not include in the evidence more information, besides just that you are on a life-sustaining planet?
Note:ALTRA OBIEZIONE

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number of continents
Note:ES ALTRE INFO

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number of other planets in its solar system,
Note:INFO 2

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shapes of the constellations visible
Note:INFO 3

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It is irrelevant because the theories under consideration do not differentially impact the probabilities of these details.
Note:RISPOSYA

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A refined version of the total evidence requirement, then, would state that we should take a more informative characterization of the evidence rather than a less informative one, whenever this makes a difference to the relative probabilities of the evidence
Note:X EVITARE ERRORI

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in the case of the uranium atoms, your evidence is that an atom named Bob decayed in the last five minutes.
Note:CASO DELL URANIO

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You would be much more likely to receive this evidence if the box contained many atoms than if it contained few.
Note:SUPERA IL TEST

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11.4.4 Personal Identity and the Multiverse Theory
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Now at last, what of the Multiverse theory ?
Note:PASSIAMO AL NS CASO

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more likely to happen if there were many universes than if there were only one.
Note:LA NS ESPERIENZA

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the argument requires the assumption that you could have existed in a universe other than this one.
Note:CAVEAT!!!!!!!

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You might well doubt this.
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you are an individual, physical object. And a particular physical object can only exist in the universe it is in.
Note:IL PROBLEMA

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if you had not existed in this universe, you could not have existed at all,
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An alternative view is that you would exist as long as an organism with a brain sufficiently like your actual brain had come into existence
Note:ALTERNATIVA LASCA

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perhaps your identity is tied to a particular, immaterial soul,
Note:LASCA BIS

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if a person in another universe could count as you, then the fine tuning evidence supports multiple universes.
Note:CONCLUSIONE RIPETUTA

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if a person in another universe could not count as you, then the fine tuning evidence gives you no reason at all to believe in other universes.
Note:COROLLARIO

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11.5 Against Doomsday
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It misunderstands our evidence by characterizing it in an overly general way.
Note:L ERRORE DA

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The probability of your being born at the time you were actually born is completely unaffected by anything that happens after that time. Therefore, that you were born at that time does not provide any evidence about what will happen later;
Note:INFATTI

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Notice how this case differs from the case of picking numbers from a hat. In the hat case, when you pick a small number, you can infer that the hat probably contains few numbers rather than many numbers. This inference is legitimate because the size of the hat can in fact affect what number you draw.
Note:DISANALOGIA

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The slip numbered “501”, for example, can prevent the slip numbered “8” from being chosen, by getting in the way and getting itself drawn out of the hat instead.
Note:DISANALOGIA

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in the Doomsday Argument, since individuals who exist later in time could not have prevented you from being born when you were.
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Multiverse argument does not require any problematic backward causation, since the many universes are supposed to exist simultaneously.
Note:IL VANTAGGIO DI MT RISPETTO A DA

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There could be a version of the Multiverse theory that makes the same mistake as the Doomsday Argument: suppose we claimed that because we find ourselves existing at all, there probably will be many universes in the future.
Note:LA FALLACIA DELL UNIVERSO CICLICO

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11.6 Sleeping Beauty: For a Third
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In the Firing Squad case, it is important that your evidence is that you survived your firing squad, not merely that someone survived
Note:L IMPORTANZA DI DESCRIVERE BENE L EVIDENZA

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In the Doomsday case, it is important that your evidence is that you were born at the time you were, not merely that some random person from the species’
Note:ANCORA

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E1 I am woken up at least once.
Note:MODI DI DESCRIVERE L EVIDENZA DELLA BELLA ADDORMENTATA 1

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E2 I am woken up now.
Note:2

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she in fact has no new evidence, since she knew from the start that she would be woken up at least once regardless of whether the coin came up heads or tails.
Note:CASO E1.....MI HANNO SVEGLIATO ALMENO UNA VOLTA...SI REALIZZA SIA CON TESTA CHE CON CROCE

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In the statement of E2, “now” refers to the specific time at which Beauty has just found herself awoken.
Note:CASO E2…INFO SPECIFICA CHE SI AGGIUNGE

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But times at which a subject of this experiment is woken up are more likely to be Mondays than to be Tuesdays.
Note:QUINDI LUNEDÌ QUINDI TESTA...NB SB SI RITROVA XFETTAMENTE SOSTITUIBILE TRA LUNEDÍ E MARTEDÌ

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Beauty has no reason to think she is special
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E2 is in fact the correct characterization of the evidence, given the total evidence principle: we should use the most informative accurate characterization of the subject’s evidence. Beauty knows both E1 and E2, but E2 is more informative: that Beauty is woken up now logically entails that she is woken up at least once,
Note:E2>E1

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The theories are not empirically equivalent;
Note:MULTIVERSO VS DESIGN@@@@@@@@@@NELLE NOTE

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Multiverse predicts, roughly, that we should find ourselves to be fairly typical examples of the sort of conscious beings who would exist in a multiverse filled with universes with randomly chosen parameter values.
Note:ESEMPIO 1 SEMBREREBBE SFAVOREVOLE A MT

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Multiverse might lead us to expect the initial entropy of the universe to be approximately the highest that it could be, compatible with life later being likely to evolve; Design would probably lead us to expect a lower initial entropy, perhaps the minimal physically possible initial entropy.
ESEMPIO 2…ANCORA SFAVOREVOLE A MT@@@@@@@@@NOTE