Citation (APA): Harford, E. F. J. F. T. (2014). Dibattendo EMH [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com
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Definizione 2 categorie di scettici: 1. i contrari ideologicamente e 2. i consulenti che non avrebbero niente da consigliare Shiller: hindsight bias Perchè esiste una regolamentazione e una banca centrale se vale EMH? Nel momento in cui reputi buone alcune regole cesi di credere a EMH! MIT Chicago Mason. Sapendo che il mercato è imprrfetto (pur considerandolo il meglio a disosizione) le regole ci saranno sempre come segno di speranza e di cammino verso la xfezione Krugman e LTCM Le bolle possono coesistere con EMH? The peso problem
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The Price Isn't Always Right justin fox
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"security prices at any time 'fully reflect' all available information."
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Finally, if all one means by "efficient market" is a market that's hard to beat, that's not such a wrongheaded idea at all
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Robert Shiller -- a long-time critic of the efficient market hypothesis -- cobbled together an inflation-adjusted index of U.S. real estate prices going back to 1890 and found that (a) in the past, prices had declined for decades on end and (b) the rise in real home prices since 1997 was by far the sharpest on record. From these two pieces of data he drew the common-sense conclusion that the rise in housing prices wouldn't go on forever and was likely to be followed by a sharp fall.
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In Defense of Efficient Markets eric falkenstein
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you make many gracious acknowledgements to the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), such as the basic implication that it is very, very difficult to outperform the market.
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This is not a minor acknowledgment, but basically is the EMH theory.
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I think this distaste for efficient markets comes from two sources. First, many people distrust the "invisible hand."
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Secondly, there are critics (stockbrokers, talking heads on CNBC, financial journalists) whose livelihood depends on markets being wrong;
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CONFLITTO D INTRRESSE
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Government fails more often than markets do
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Yet I think government power should be minimized, because government failure is far more common than market failure, as the I.Q. of a group is diminished by centralized interaction.
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Shiller did not predict an aggregate housing decline; instead, he merely stated the recent increase in home prices was unlikely to continue.
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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 48
Now, compare this modest warning by a lone economist to the forces promoting home lending from all directions. It was not just a Wall Street phenomenon, but one pushed by our government, legislators, regulators, and even academics (for evidence, see Stan Liebowitz's "Anatomy of a Train Wreck").
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The market diagnosed the bubble
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ket prices, not legislators, instigated the end of the insanity. How quickly are failed governmental initiatives usually stopped, once identified?
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IL MERCATO SI È CORRETTO
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That you were able to find one person in 2004 and turn his measured warning into something that would have drastically reversed the regulatory emphasis on weakening underwriting standards is classic hindsight wisdom.
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Markets Can Do Many Things Well, But Not Everything justin fox
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This reality is why over the past two centuries we've developed central banks and financial regulations. Yet it is a reality almost completely ignored by the efficient-market approach to finance.
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BANCHE CENTRALI E EMH
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The housing bubble was driven by the market
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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 81
I'll be honest: I don't know what exactly the new rules should be.
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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 86
The big lesson that came out of the confluence of the efficient market hypothesis and the capital asset pricing model (which holds that stocks with higher sensitivity to market fluctuations will deliver higher returns) was that you should hold a widely diversified portfolio, preferably in some kind of index fund.
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Jack Bogle's "cost matters hypothesis," which states that: No matter how efficient or inefficient markets may be, the returns earned by investors as a group must fall short of the market returns by precisely the amount of the aggregate costs they incur. It is the central fact of investing. So I invest in index funds not because I think the market is all that efficient, but because index funds charge the lowest fees.
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Why Most Market Regulation is Useless And/Or Harmful eric falkenstein
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As George Will writes, most regulation is championed by a confluence of Baptists and bootleggers, the first group with high motives, usually naÃ¯ve, and the second more cynical group who hide behind them.
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Regulatory efforts fall into three categories. The first is exemplified by things like short-sale downtick prohibitions, Glass-Steagall, and mortgage disclosure requirements, all of which are really irrelevant to protecting the retail investor.
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3 TIPI DI REGOLE
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A second type of financial regulation is downright counterproductive, because it sows the seeds for future problems.
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Without regulation, markets correct themselves
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In the bad old days prior to much financial regulation, or even a central bank, we had crisesevery twenty years: in 1819, 1838, 1857, 1873, 1893, and 1907. After a couple of years, though, things always got better, and growth was strong over this period.
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REGOLA DEI 20 ANNI
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Businesses lobby for regulation to stifle competition Much regulation is really about preventing competition,
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For the 95 percent of investors who have no conceivable investing alpha, the best strategy is to avoid costs from overtrading, and avoid risk by diversifying.
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Bold regulation is the triumph of hope over experience,
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Back to the Myth of the Rational Market justin fox
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So Eric, you're saying that some financial regulations are pointless, some are counterproductive, and some actually do good. Sounds about right to me. But it's not what the die-hard rational marketeers of the 1970s and 1980s were saying.
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Financial regulation is not going away
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MIT economists think markets are imperfect, therefore we need regulation. Chicago economists think markets are perfect, therefore we don't need regulation. George Mason economists think markets are imperfect, therefore we don't need regulation.
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Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 146
Richard Thaler offered this verdict: While imperfect, financial markets are still the best way to allocate capital. Even so, knowing that prices can be wrong suggests that governments could usefully adopt automatic stabilising activity,
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We Need Less Regulation, Not More eric falkenstein
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I agree with Kling, in that when you say something is imperfect, it should always be asked, "compared to what?" Some theoretical nirvana where a social planner
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COMPARE TO WHAT
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Krugman Reviews Book He Didn't Read eric falkenstein
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Justin Fox noted that I didn't read his book, because if I did he would have noted Fox's rather balanced treatment.
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LE AMMISSIONI DI FOX
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Krugman demonstrates he has strong opinions disproportionate to any evidence, and displays the measured analysis of an anonymous blog commenter.
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The quintessential collaboration between big money and academic superstars was the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, whose partners included Scholes and Robert Merton, with whom Scholes shared another finance Nobel. L.T.C.M. eventually imploded, nearly taking the world economy down with it. But efficient-markets theory retained its hold on financial thought.
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KRUGG LEGGENDA LTCM
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If he actually knew something about hedge funds in general, or LTCM in particular, he would know that Merton and Scholes where marketing props. The strategies LTCM employed were neither derived by, or managed by Scholes and Merton. The LTCM strategy had nothing to do with a tweak to the Black-Scholes option formula.
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It is much smarter to approach markets as if markets are rational. As there are literally thousands of prices in thousands of markets, some are too low or too high, but it is not obvious which because most are priced 'just right' given the information available. If you think it is easy, as implied by an irrational market, you don't check your assumptions enough. Several, perhaps hundreds, prices are wrong, but it takes a lot of smart analysis to figure out which.
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EMH È PIÙ SMART
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L IPOTESI PIÙ DIFFICILE DA CONFUTARR
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The theory has esteemed detractors, but that's about it. Indeed, it seems ultimately a semantics debate (ie, 'efficient' implies 'perfect' to some).
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Such a book has its place on the bookshelf, but it is not part of the intellectual debate, more like learning about Hitler's childhood, which is interesting but really doesn't explain the concentration camps or Operation Barbarossa.
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INFANZIA DI HOTLER
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'Education is an admirable thing, but is well to remember from time to time that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught.'
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Do Crashes Support or Disprove 'Rational' Markets? eric falkenstein
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Noneconomists tend to think 'rational markets' is patently absurd, pointing to various asset bubbles such as the internet bubble,
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To assert markets are irrational or inefficient, however, one needs to propose a measure of 'true value', and then show that actual market prices diverge from this.
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It is essential to have a specific alternative, because how do you know they are wrong unless you know the right answer?
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One big issue in tests of whether prices are 'right' or not is the Peso Problem. The term 'peso problem'
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So why can’t market participants also be considered rational and yet have their collective opinions vary wildly over time and space?
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VOLATILE MA NN IRRAZIONALE
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Prices fluctuate more than we would like. But is it too much?
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How to make money from a Nobel cause tim harford
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Fama and Shiller disagree with each other.
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it’s hard to beat the market, and you should probably be suspicious of people who claim to be able to pull off the trick.
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a second reason to disbelieve the EMH is the experience of the dotcom and subprime bubbles.
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