Notebook per
Who Cares About Forecast Accuracy
Citation (APA): Hanson, R. (2016). Who Cares About Forecast Accuracy [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com
Parte introduttiva
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Who Cares About Forecast Accuracy? By Robin Hanson
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we could attend less to “hedgehogs” who know “one big thing” and whose forecasts are “beaten rather soundly even by the [random] chimp.”
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x IL CONSIGLIO DI TETLOCK
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we seem surprisingly uninterested in improving our forecasts:
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spend little or nothing analyzing the accuracy of forecasts
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x GOVERNO
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Some even persist in using forecasts that are manifestly unreliable.
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when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, such firms usually don’t doubt my claims that such forecasts are cheap and more accurate. Nevertheless, they usually aren’t interested.
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x MA ANCHE IL PRIVATO
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TV weather forecasters are not usually chosen based on their forecast accuracy.
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TEMPO ATM
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disinterest in forecasting accuracy could be explained either by its costs being higher, or its benefits being lower, than we expect.
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2 IPOTESI
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Media consumers can be educated and entertained by clever, witty, but accessible commentary,
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x COSA CHIEDE IL PUBBLICO
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to signal that they are smart and well-read by quoting and discussing the words of the same few focal pundits.
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X COSA CERCANO I CONSUMAYORI
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easier to understand and classify helps “hedgehogs” to serve many of these functions.
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ISTRICE FAVORITO
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Academics are primarily selected and rewarded for their impressive mastery and application of difficult academic tools and methods.
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x COSA SI VUOLE DA UN ACCADEMICO?
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academic impressiveness.
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TRASCURATA
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accuracy.
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managers,
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By being personally impressive, and by being identified with attractive philosophical positions, leaders can inspire people to work for and affiliate with their organizations.
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x COSA CERCHIAMO IN UN MANAGER
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champions need to assemble supporting political coalitions to create and sustain large projects. As such coalitions are not lightly disbanded, they are reluctant to allow last minute forecast changes to threaten project support.
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x IN POLITICA
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overconfident managers
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the fact that we pretend to care more about forecast accuracy than we actually seem to care.
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X DOVE STA LA SPERANZA
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there are cultures where few requests made of acquaintances are denied. Since it is rude to say “no” to a difficult request, people instead say “yes,” but then don’t actually deliver. In other cultures, it is worse to say “yes” but not deliver,
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x ANALOGIA DELLE DUE CULTIRE
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The difference is less in the technology of remembering, and more in the social treatment of such memories.
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c
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second analogy is that in some cultures people who schedule to meet at particular times actually show up over a wide range of surrounding times. While this might once have been reasonable given uncertain travel times and unreliable clocks, such practices continued long after these problems were solved. In other cultures, people show up close to scheduled meeting times, because observers remember and think less of those who are late.
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X ANALOGIA DELL APPUNTAMENTO
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it isn’t enough to just have a way to remember behavior. A track record tech must be combined with a social equilibrium that punishes those with poor records,
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x MORALE DELLE DUE ANALOGIE
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we also need a new matching social respect for such records.
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ASPETTO SOCIALE
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Today, the simplest way to create forecast track records that get attention and respect is by making bets.
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SCOMMESA
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Anti-gambling laws now discourage such bets— shouldn’t
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LA SCOMMESSA VIETATA
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revive our ancestors’ culture of respect for bets.
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It should be shameful to visibly disagree and yet evade a challenge
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DISPREZZO X CHI SI RITRAE
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Designing Fair Tests for the Hedeghogs
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T
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hedgehogs, who focus on one main analytical tool, are less accurate than foxes, who used a wide assortment of analytical tools.
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CONCLUSIONE DI TETLOCK
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Cochrane argues that no one can do well at the unconditional forecasts that Tetlock studied,
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PROTESTA DI COCHRANE
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neither Cochrane nor De Mesquita express interest in helping to design better studies,
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SOSPETTO IL MANCATO APPORTO
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De Mesquita is proud that his methods seem to achieve substantial accuracy, but he has not to my knowledge participated in open competitions
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it is certainly possible to collect and score accuracy on conditional forecasts. One need only look at the conditions that turned out to be true, and score the forecasts for those conditions.
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X SCOMMESSE COND POSSIBILI
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Forecasting Tournaments Should Cast a Wider Net
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