Notebook per
Should Earth Shut the Hell Up
Citation (APA): Hanson, R. (2016). Should Earth Shut the Hell Up [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com
Parte introduttiva
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 1
Should Earth Shut the Hell Up? By Robin Hanson
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 8
Should humanity shout to the galaxy “We are here!”?
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 9
aliens that hear our shouts should be far older and more advanced than us.
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 10
We would lose any fight,
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 10
we might learn much from them, they can learn little from us.
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 11
We are unsure of alien friendliness.
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 15
all of them instead seem to keep quiet and hide. That seems worrisome.
Nota - Posizione 16
SE SONO VICINI
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If aliens are instead far away, then by the time any response gets here we will be extinct, or will have already learned most of what aliens could teach us.
Nota - Posizione 17
X SE SONO LONTANI... INUTILITÀ
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 19
these considerations seem to make a strong, if not overwhelming, case for not yelling on purpose yet.
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 21
we should wait and learn more before yelling.
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the case for not letting each group decide this for themselves seems overwhelming. Such decisions have global consequences.
Nota - Posizione 23
IMPORRE
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 25
If global governance makes sense for anything, it makes sense for this.
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 25
Some say that we can’t control yells to aliens (Harrison 2014). But far fewer people can yell loudly to aliens than can add CO2 to our atmosphere.
Nota - Posizione 29
x CO2
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Earth has in fact been yelling to aliens, but accidentally, such as by radar that probes planets, asteroids, and comets.
Nota - Posizione 32
x SEGNALI ACCIDENTALI
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 37
our loudest yells come from the Arecibo radar in Puerto Rico, when used to probe asteroids and the like.
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 43
There are some people, [Seth Shostak] acknowledges, who might worry that broadcasting “The Day the Earth Stood Still” could be inimical to our interests. He added, “I think that if these people are truly worried about such things, they might best begin by shutting down the radar at the local airport.” (Overbye 2008)
Nota - Posizione 47
x ARGOMENTO LIBERTARIO
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we can use the amounts that we spend on accidental yells to help guess the yell risk that we should tolerate.
Nota - Posizione 49
X PROPOSTA
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 59
Thus if the world were in a steady state of income and radar cost and sending, we might estimate that continued indefinite use of the Arecibo radar in send mode at current levels is a bad deal if, over the long run, such use increases the chance of our being destroyed by aliens by even one in a billion.
Nota - Posizione 61
x COSTI BENEFICI
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 62
That seems to me a pretty high bar;
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 63
As the world gets richer,
Nota - Posizione 63
x LE COSE SONO PEGGIORI
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 64
improving technology combined with increased spending on radar sending should result in more powerful radar signals,
Nota - Posizione 65
c
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 69
we also can’t trust planetary scientists or military strategists to decide if the value they produce via accidental yells is worth the risks they impose. All such parties are plausibly biased by selfish career
Nota - Posizione 70
x PUBLIC CHOICE
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fraction of aliens who are friendly.
Nota - Posizione 71
VARIABILE CHIAVE
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a consensus apparently arose among many in this area that aliens must be overwhelmingly friendly
Nota - Posizione 72
x ORTODOSSIA
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 74
Most conventional social scientists I know would find this view quite implausible;
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 75
Why is this kind-aliens view then so common?
Nota - Posizione 75
x PERCHÈ L ORTODOSS
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 76
non-social-scientists have believed modern cultural propaganda claims that our dominant cultures today have a vast moral superiority over most other cultures through history.
Nota - Posizione 77
x IPOTESI: SI CREDE AL PIÙ AVANZATI PIÙ MORALI
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 78
This propaganda naturally suggests that very advanced aliens must have long since eliminated such conflict.
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 79
Communist SETI researchers similarly assumed aliens to be communist.
Nota - Posizione 79
RICERCHE COMUNISTE
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 81
Yes, over time violence has fallen, but we advance in part by learning to more finely condition our behavior on context. We pick fewer pointless fights, but we also more quickly take advantage of those who can’t fight back (Pfeffer 2010).
Nota - Posizione 84
x TEORIA DELLA VIOLENZA
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 84
Think of academics who are cordial among equals, but unfairly referee papers from rivals who can’t much retaliate.
Nota - Posizione 85
x ESEMPIO
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 85
Aliens who treat their equals well may still treat humans badly.
Nota - Posizione 85
x TESI
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we should cut way back on accidental yelling to aliens, such as via Arecibo radar sending, if continuing at current rates would over the long run bring even a one in a billion chance of alerting aliens to come destroy us. And even if this chance is now below one in a billion, it will rise with time
Nota - Posizione 88
x CONCLUSIONI
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Pascal’s Alien Wager
Nota - Posizione 90
T
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 99
In the ordinary Pascal’s wager, God is said to greatly reward those who believe in him and do what he favors. The rewards are so huge that even those who assign only a small chance to God existing are wise to try to make themselves believe.
Nota - Posizione 100
x SCOMMESSA DI PASCAL
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A standard response is to point out that a great many different Gods might exist, each of whom favor different actions. If you have little idea of which Gods exist or of what acts they favor, then there is little point in taking their rewards into account.
Nota - Posizione 103
x RISPOSTA STANDARD
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an aliens version of Pascal’s Wager.
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there are many other possible kinds of aliens.
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maybe there are aliens with a strong sense of status who will destroy us for being uppity by speaking louder than our status justifies.
Nota - Posizione 110
x RAZZA ALIENA. IPOTESI
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 119
I estimate yelling to be a bad idea.
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 127
Slow Growth Is Plenty Fast
Nota - Posizione 127
T
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David Brin’s
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 137
The lack of visible aliens may be explained in part via a strong tendency of all societies to become “feudal,” with elites “suppressing merit competition and mobility, ensuring that status would be inherited” and resulting in “scientific stagnation.”
Nota - Posizione 139
x IPOTESI BRIN SUL SILENZIO
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Today, in contrast, rates of innovation are high,
Nota - Posizione 144
BRIN VALE X IL PASSATO
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This change is called the “industrial revolution,” and it was indeed a good thing.
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 148
new networks of experts talking.)
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IPOTESI CAUSA RIV
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While Brin sees inequality as the main obstacle to innovation, in fact today inequality promotes innovation in important ways.
Nota - Posizione 149
x DISEGUAGL E INNOVAZ
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most innovation today happens within for-profit firms, and private for-profit firms put a lot more effort into innovation than do public for-profit firms. Compared to publicly traded firms, privately owned firms invest a 2.5 times larger fraction of their assets, and are 3.5 times more responsive to changes in investment opportunities. Yet private firms cannot exist without great wealth concentration; they are usually owned by fewer than three shareholders, and 83% are managed by the controlling shareholder (Asker et. al. 2011).
Nota - Posizione 154
c PRIVATO E CONCENTRAZ
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 155
modern world doesn’t actually seem to have much less inheritance of wealth
Nota - Posizione 155
EREDITÀ: INNOVATIVI IL DINAMISMO SOCIALE NN CONTA
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 156
The detailed work of Greg Clark finds very similar degrees of long-term inheritance around the world today and across history. Specifically Clark finds that the intergenerational correlation of social status remains in the range of 0.7 to 0.8 across all these societies: medieval England, modern England, pre-industrial Sweden, modern Sweden, the United States, Quing and Communist China, Meiji and modern Japan, and Chile (Clark 2014).
Nota - Posizione 160
c CLSRCK
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My stronger criticism is that the world before the industrial revolution did innovate.
Nota - Posizione 162
X SI INNOVAVA ANCHE PRIMA!
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 164
During the forager era, the number of foragers doubled about every quarter million years. During the farming era the number of farmers doubled about every thousand years. And during our industry era our economy has doubled about every fifteen years (Hanson 2000). In all three eras, growth was primarily caused by innovation.
Nota - Posizione 168
x POPOL E INNOVAZIO
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It is even plausible for a civilization to reach very advanced levels while growing at the much slower forager rate.
Nota - Posizione 174
x TEMPI COSMOLOGICI
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aliens tending to fall into cultures and institutions that discourage innovation is just not by itself a plausible explanation for the “great silence”
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 179
Perhaps one could have more success if one combined this slow-growth hypothesis with another hypothesis about very short time windows in which civilizations had to grow before something killed them off.
Nota - Posizione 180
x ALTERNATIVA DEL FILTRO
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Adapted Aliens
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T
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Barkow seems to assume that alien styles are largely determined by the specific biological environments
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x COME SARSNNO GLI SIENI?
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far less sense for aliens who are a million or a billion years more advanced– far more likely timescales.
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x SCALE TEMPORALI E ABOLIZIONE EFFETTI EVOLUT
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aliens selected far more by their final environment than their initial environment.
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some plausible forecasts
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physics and basic physical resources are the same across the universe,
Nota - Posizione 210
HANNO LIVELLATO TUTTO IN MODO ARTIF
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 210
advanced aliens are physically similar across the universe,
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sexual reproduction is quite unlikely to last.
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advanced aliens should similarly design themselves
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 217
Such vivid examples may not be “art,” but neither also are they simply functional.
Nota - Posizione 217
CORPI COME ARTE
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very old aliens should be accustomed to very low levels of growth and innovation. After all, the rates familiar to us just can’t be sustained for millions and billions of years.
Nota - Posizione 219
x CRESCITA E INNOVAZIONE SCARSA
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 224
very advanced aliens should not be either generically friendly or generically hostile to outsiders. Instead they should be very good at making their friendship or hostility appropriately context-dependent. That is, aliens should be very good at figuring out when and in what precise way being friendly or hostile will best achieve their ends.
Nota - Posizione 226
x VIOLENZA
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what exactly could humans eventually do to help or hurt them?
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LA DOMANDA DELL ALIENO
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advanced aliens will be very patient, but also very selfish
Nota - Posizione 231
L EGOISMO E PRUDENZA. VIRTÙ EVOLUTIVO
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 236
anything less than complete control of evolution would not end evolution; it would instead create a new environment for adaptation.
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x L EVOLUZIONE NN SI ABOLISCE
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Selection Is Coming
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T
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 281
Advanced technology means that a species need no longer be selected by environmental pressures
