Notebook per
Austerity or stimulus? What we need is growth
Citation (APA): Cochrane, C. (2015). Austerity or stimulus? What we need is growth [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com
Parte introduttiva
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 2
Austerity or stimulus? What we need is growth By Chris Cochrane
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Austerity isn’t working in Europe.
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Greece is collapsing, Italy and Spain’s output is declining, and even Germany and the U.K. are slowing down.
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aren’t even swiftly closing budget gaps.
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As incomes decline, tax revenue drops,
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A downward spiral looms.
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DEF
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austerity
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a program of sharp budget cuts and (even) higher tax rates, but largely putting off “structural reforms” for a sunnier day
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x DEF
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What else should we do?
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Lack of “stimulus” is the problem, say the Keynesians,
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New York Times and its columnist Paul Krugman, who has been crusading on this point.
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Europe is a direct consequence of declining government spending.
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IDEA DEI KEYNESIANI
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50 percent of GDP spent by the government is simply not enough
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Germany’s Limits
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T
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Greece, Spain and Italy simply cannot borrow any more. So, say the Keynesians, Germany should pay.
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Greece was able to borrow at low rates right up to the moment that it couldn’t borrow at all.
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The traditional Keynesian answer was: Move on to monetary stimulus.
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Deliberately inflate
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Break up the euro so the southern European countries can inflate
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even more audacious idea: Deficits pay for themselves.
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(
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spending more now actually improves the long-run fiscal picture.”
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Is there another explanation, and a more plausible way forward?
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T
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stimulus explanation is curious for what it omits.
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Is it irrelevant that Greece is 100th on the World Bank’s “ease of doing business”
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professions from truck driving to pharmacies are still rigorously protected,
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businesses can’t fire people,
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you can’t even get a driver’s license without paying a bribe?
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Greek Taxes
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T
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Doesn’t it matter that Greece has a high combination of individual, corporate, wealth and social taxes?
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True, Greeks famously don’t pay taxes,
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but businesses that must operate illegally to avoid taxes are much less efficient.
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Does talk of exiting the euro, followed quickly by devaluation, inflation (the IMF predicts 35 percent in Greece, should it leave) and capital controls, have nothing to do with lack of investment?
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x PARLARE DI SVALUTAZIONE AIUTA AD INVESTIRE?
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Greece can sell to Germany, so long as Greece stays in the euro area. But it isn’t happening. Is that a mystery?
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Would lower wages compel you to invest money in Greece;
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SALARI BASSI NN BASTANO
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surmount a thicket of regulation;
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a good part of Europe’s austerity doldrums are linked to “supply,” not “demand;”
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“microeconomics,” not “macroeconomics;”
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That insight suggests a different strategy: Let’s call it “Growth Now.”
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We could easily stop subsidies for agriculture, electric cars or building roads and bridges
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Rather than raise taxes further on the “rich,” driving them underground, abroad, or away from business formation,
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Lower marginal rates but eliminate the maze of deductions.
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remove the profusion of regulation
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Italy’s Deregulation
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T
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“Structural reform” is vital to restore growth now,
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“Reform” isn’t just “policy” handed down by technocrats like rules on the provenance of prosciutto;
