venerdì 11 marzo 2016

Bryan Caplan e l'ambientalismo

#caplan ambiente
Bryan Caplan e l'ambientalismo
  • come formulare le scommesse su gw
  • cosa dicono gli esperti. il sondaggio ideale
  • 6 critiche alla retorica ambientalista CBA. prob&catastrofi. cheap tech. ideologia.
  • riconciliare scienziati e catastrofisti: il problema c è ma è anche pompato
  • Bias del low probability
  • ....
  • Why I Believe in Moderate Global Warming, But Lose No Sleep Over It
  • CAPIRE LA SCIENZA. examining the bets experts are willing to make is a great substitute for understanding what they are talking about.
  • CONTRO GLI SCETTICI. when Robin Hanson reports that global warming skeptics aren't betting, at least at reasonable odds, I infer that strong skepticism is cheap talk.
  • ATTENUANTE. I don't see the climate change bet as very interesting. Why not bet on world per-capita GDP and life expectancy in 2057 (or 2107) conditional on doing nothing
  • Global Warming: The Experts Speak
  • ESPERTI. Yes, I'm an elitist:
  • MODERAZIONE. The experts almost always lean in the way Al Gore says they would, but they rarely lean strongly.
  • SONDAGGIO TRA ESPERTI. Personally, I wish the survey measured the political views of the respondents, allowing us to test for ideological bias
  • The High Points of Superfreakonomics
  • CONTRO IL PIGOU CLUB. Dubner don't seem ready for the Pigou Club: …………….But when it comes to actually solving climate-change externalities through taxes, all we can say is good luck. Besides the obvious obstacles - like determining the right size of the tax and getting someone to collect it - there's the fact that greenhouse gases do not adhere to national boundaries...
  • The Cartoon Introduction to Climate Change
  • COSTI BENEFICI. 1. We can use cost-benefit analysis to put climate change in perspective... even high estimates are a small percentage of global GDP.... 2. Cost-benefit analysis is sensitive to discount rates.
  • DESIDERABILITY BIAS. Insurance is NOT a no-brainer. Yes, insurance sounds wonderful; that's Social Desirability Bias.....Bauman repeats the cliche that "It's a good idea to buy insurance, just in case."
  • RESILIENZA. 4. Leading techno-fixes really do look vastly cheaper than abatement... geoengineering,
  • EFFETTI PERVERSI. 5. National emissions regulations can have perverse global effects. Se i paesi avanzati riducono i consumi... price falls - encouraging further consumption in relatively dirty countries.
  • VOTO ESPRESSIVO. 6. Expressive voting is a big deal... showing commitment...rather than improving outcomes.
  • DOMANDA ALL AMBIENTALISTA. sells a year's supply of dehydrated food for $1499.99. This product provides excellent insurance against a long list of natural and man-made disasters. Question: Have you bought it? If not, why not?
  • CATASTROFE. Low-probability catastrophes lurk around every corner, but the standard response seems to be, "Until I see concrete dangers, I'll take my chances."