Esportare la democrazia. Ma non verso i poveri

Above $2,700 per capita, democracies are less prone to violence than are autocracies. But most political violence happens in countries where income is far below that threshold; there, democracy is associated with a greater risk of bloodshed. … Although the risk of violence falls in the year before an election, it rises in the year after. … Election misconduct tends to be concentrated in countries that have low per capita incomes, small populations, rich natural resources and a lack of institutional checks and balances. Eastern Europe didn’t fit this picture. … Most of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa, however, have all the characteristics that undermine elections, giving them a mere 3 percent chance of an honest vote … Afghanistan is not exceptional; in fact, electoral misconduct there was almost inevitable. …