Di fronte all’ignoranza

The Argument from Ignorance – You are Not So Smart – David McRaney

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Punti chiave: L‘ignoranza scatena spiegazioni fantasiose – il ruolo della semplicità

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THE MISCONCEPTION: When you can’t explain something, you focus on what you can prove. THE TRUTH: When you are unsure of something, you are more likely to accept strange explanations.

Note:DESCRIZIONE DEL BIAS

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It is easy to succumb to mystical thinking when you compare what you know for sure to the vast expanse of things yet unsolved…You’ve probably met people like this, who see things like magnets and Stonehenge as unsolvable mysteries….

Note:IL FASCINO DEL MISTERO

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Most of what gets filed under the realm of the paranormal is the result of people committing the argument-from-ignorance fallacy, or argumentum ad ignorantiam if you prefer the Latin logic terminology.

Note:IL PARANORMALE

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You know this book is in your hands right now, but when you leave the room you can’t be sure it does not come to life and eat your carpet fluff for sustenance.

Note:CHI PUÒ DIRLO?

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The same holds true for leprechauns and unicorns, fairies and the Loch Ness Monster. These things aren’t more likely just because you can’t prove they don’t exist. Lack of proof neither confirms nor denies a proposition.

Note:LA MANCATA CONFUTAZIONE NON È UNA PROVA

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Some people think the Holocaust didn’t happen, or human beings never walked on the moon, but there is plenty of evidence for both. People who refuse to believe such things claim they need more evidence before they can change their minds, but no amount of evidence will satisfy them.

LA PROBABILITÀ NON È MAI DEL 100%

COMMENTO PERSONALE

Spesso sfugge che a decidere in campo scientifico non sono le dimostrazioni e le confutazioni (raramente disponibili in modo convincente) ma la semplicità e l’immediatezza della teoria proposta. Il complottista, per esempio, ha il torto di presentare teorie cervellotiche