3 Prediction Machine Magic

3 Prediction Machine Magic
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What do Harry Potter, Snow White, and Macbeth have in common? These
Note:TUTTI MOTIVATI DA UNA PROFEZIA

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belief in predictions
Note:ANCHE MATRIX

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Predictions affect behavior.
Note:DALLE RELUGIONI ALLE FAVOLE

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many oracles
Note:GRECI

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whether a current credit card transaction is legitimate
Note:PREDIZIONE UNO

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whether a tumor in a medical image is malignant or benign,
Note:DUE

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whether the person looking into the iPhone camera is the owner
Note:TRE

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The crystal ball
Note:IL SIMBOLO

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Prediction takes information you have, often called “data,” and uses it to generate information you don’t have.
Note:DEF PREDIZ

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The Magic of Prediction
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Someone had used Avi’s credit card for a purchase.
Note:CARTA CLONATA

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The credit card provider had accurately inferred, based on Avi’s spending habits and a myriad of other available data, that the transaction was fraudulent.
Note:CARTA RIMBORSATA E SOSTITUITA PRONTAMENTE. CCOME MAI?

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like magic, the company sent a replacement
Note:MAGIA?...NO ANALISI DEL PASSATO

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credit card provider did not have a crystal ball. It had data and a good predictive model:

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card network uses information about past fraudulent (and nonfraudulent) transactions
Note:METODO

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is at the heart of one of AI’s recent main achievements: language translation,
Note:LA PREVISIONE

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to hire a linguist—an expert on the rules of language—to exposit rules and translate them into a way they could be programmed.
Note:METODO DEL PASSATO

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substituting word for word,
Note:ES

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you need to swap the order of nouns and adjectives
Note:PASSO DUE

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recast translation as a prediction problem.
Note:NUOVA TENDENZA

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magical nature of the use of prediction for translation
Note:NOTATI I MIGLIORAMENTI DI GOOGLE TRANS?

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predicting the Japanese words and phrases that match the English.
Note:LA TRADUZIONE È UNA PREDIZIONE

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set of Japanese words and the order
Note:INFO MANCANTI

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The more the AI is used, the more data it collects, the more it learns, and the better it becomes.
Note:SI MIGLIORA...QUANTI PIÙ LA USANO

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How Much Better Is Prediction Than It Used to Be?
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reduced the costs of quality-adjusted prediction.
Note:IN GENERALE

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credit card companies detect and address fraud before we notice anything amiss.
Note:UN MIGLIORAMENTO TALE CHE...

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this improvement seems incremental.
Note:IN PIÙ

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caught about 80 percent of fraudulent transactions.
Note:ANNI NOVANTA

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90–95 percent in 2000 and to 98–99.9 percent today.

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the change from 98 percent to 99.9 percent
Note:GRAZIE IA

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Creditworthiness involved predicting the likelihood that someone would pay back a loan.
Note:ES AMBITO IA...MUTUI

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Health insurance involved predicting how much an individual would spend on medical care.
Note:ALTRO AMBITO

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how many items would be in a warehouse on a given day.
Note:PREDIRE IL MAGAZZENO

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predict the name of an object in an image.
Note:PREDIZIONI SORPRENDENTI

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the difference between a Tibetan mastiff and a Bernese mountain dog,
Note:PUÓ ESSERE DIFFICILE...PENSA ALLA FLORA

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Olga Russakovsky notes, “2012 was really the year when there was a massive breakthrough in accuracy,
Note:TORNEI DEL RICONOSCIMENTO

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The Consequences of Cheap Prediction
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Prediction does not get us HAL from 2001:
Note:UNA BELLA DIFFERENZA

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If modern AI is just prediction, then why is there so much fuss?
Note:LA PR TRASFORMA MOLTO

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predictions are everywhere.
Note:NEL BUSINESS E NELLA VITA XSONALE

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