sabato 4 marzo 2017

Ranked Choice Voting Likely Means Lower Turnout jason mcdaniels

Notebook per
Ranked Choice Voting Likely Means Lower Turnout
jason mcdaniels
Citation (APA): mcdaniels, j. (2017). Ranked Choice Voting Likely Means Lower Turnout [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from

Parte introduttiva
Evidenzia (giallo) - Posizione 1
Ranked Choice Voting Likely Means Lower Turnout, More Errors By Jason McDaniel
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people who eagerly made grand claims about how their preferred solution would cure what ailed American democracy.
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the “true” preferences of the electorate.
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Unfortunately, pro-RCV arguments are similarly based on faulty assumptions
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minimize empirical research
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changes that expand access to the vote and encourage more political participation tend to be better than those that seek to restrict voting or make it more difficult.
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this particular electoral reform fails on both counts.
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RCV makes voting more complicated,
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Lower Turnout and More Ballot Errors
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decrease significantly,
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I examined voter turnout in five San Francisco elections from 1995 to 2011, the last two of which featured Ranked Choice Voting.
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According to the results of my analysis of over 2,500 precincts across the five elections, turnout declines among African-American and white voters was significantly correlated with the adoption of RCV. Additionally, I found that the adoption of RCV exacerbated disparities in voter turnout between those who are already likely to vote and those who are not, including younger voters and those with lower levels of education.
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In additional research, I analyzed voter turnout in nonpartisan mayoral elections in RCV cities compared to similar elections in non-RCV cities. The results show that the impact of RCV on voter turnout depends upon whether elections occur during odd years or even years. In odd-year elections with Ranked Choice Voting, voter turnout decreases about eight percentage points, on average, compared to a non-RCV general election at the same time. Whereas in even-year elections RCV has little or no effect on voter turnout. Even-year elections usually coincide with congressional or presidential elections,
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By making voting more complicated, RCV exacerbates this tendency,
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how it affects the tendency of voters to make errors
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My colleague Francis Neely and I analyzed almost two million individual ballots in order to measure the incidence of errors that disqualify a ballot from being counted after the adoption of Ranked-Choice Voting in San Francisco elections. We found that such errors were significantly more common in RCV elections than plurality elections.
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concentrated among those portions of the electorate who are already most vulnerable
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Polarization and Voter Confusion
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Ranked Choice Voting will help to alleviate some of the problems related to partisan polarization.
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RCV will encourage more moderate and/ or third party
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not be forced to choose the “lesser of two evils.”
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faulty assumption that voters are capable of consistently and accurately distinguishing the ideological and policy positions of candidates for whom they vote, absent clear partisan and ideological cues
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Ranked Choice Voting will most likely increase voter confusion.
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My research into racial group polarization
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I found that there was a reduction in the polarized preference gap between different racial groups. However, this reduction in racial polarization was most likely caused by voter confusion about how candidates will represent their interests rather than any sincere expression of preferences previously suppressed by plurality systems.
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Corey Cook
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voters’ candidate preference rankings in RCV elections are highly inconsistent,
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the new system has failed to achieve its supporters’ goals of increasing the chances of ideologically moderate candidates and reducing polarization.
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Given the reality of polarized voters,
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Conclusion: First Do No Harm
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my research has been limited to nonpartisan city elections,
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other researchers have documented some positive aspects
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voters who experience Ranked Choice Voting tend to express satisfaction
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the level of negative campaigning may decrease under RCV.
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I believe that the potential for lower turnout and more ballot errors outweighs
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