lunedì 15 ottobre 2018

Emanuele Severino contro “Emanuele Severino”

Emanuele Severino contro “Emanuele Severino”

Emanuele Severino non smette mai di pensare, la cosa traspare chiaramente da ogni sua foto. Se poi consideriamo il fatto che pensa sempre la stessa idea comprendiamo meglio il livello di profondità che ha raggiunto la sua elucubrazione. Anche per questo propongo la mia critica in modo timido e mettendo avanti le mani: si tratta di qualcosa che è poco più di uno scherzo :-). Eppure, non posso esimermi in nome del principio per cui “i nemici dei miei amici sono miei nemici”.
Ma chi sono i nemici di Emanuele Severino (ovvero i miei amici)? Essenzialmente uno: “Emanuele Severino”. O meglio, le virgolette (“”). La sua pluridecennale battaglia contro le virgolette lo ha lentamente condotto  verso uno scontro ancora più terribile: Emanuele Severino (ES) contro il Buon Senso (BS). E, si badi bene, non si tratta di una rappresentazione denigratoria poiché il Buon Senso gode di pessima fama in filosofia.
{… Disclosure: 1) io sono grande amico del BS, 2) non ho mai letto un libro di ES fino in fondo (nemmeno un suo articolo) e 3) a scuola non ho mai studiato queste materie…}
LA MANIA DI TIRARE TUTTO FUORI DAL TEMPO
Che differenza c’è tra l’osservazione che “Socrate è castano” e il fatto che Socrate è castano?
BS ci fa dire che la prima è una frase, il secondo un… fatto, per l’appunto.
Ora, che differenza c’è tra una frase e un fatto?
Ci sono tante differenza, la principale è che la prima “abita” fuori dal tempo, il secondo nel tempo. I concetti, in altri termini, non cambiano, gli oggetti sì. Un triangolo, tanto per dire, non invecchia, tu sì.
Le frasi sono un po’ come etichette poste fuori dal tempo che noi preleviamo e utilizziamo per facilitare la vita che trascorriamo nel tempo: sono utili, anzi, indispensabili. Oserei dire che il linguaggio è una peculiarità umana.
Ebbene, attraverso le virgolette noi esprimiamo questa differenze; cose da un lato, etichette dall’altro. Ma ES sembrerebbe odiare le virgolette, vorrebbe che non esistessero, lui è un razionalista e siccome la differenza tra A e “A” è difficile da descrivere a parole, allora, nei suoi piani, sarebbe meglio non esistesse del tutto.
Nella foga di eliminare le virgolette ES finisce per assimilare un po’ troppo la frase “Socrate è castano” e il fatto per cui  Socrate è castano. A volte, per esempio, sembra che entrambe queste due “cose” debbano dimorare entrambe fuori dal tempo, una dimensione del tutto naturale per la frase “Socrate è castano”, un po’ meno per il fatto per cui Socrate sarebbe castano. Che succede infatti quando Socrate invecchia e la canizie sopravanza? Il tempo, infatti, sembra agire eccome su Socrate, altro che “fuori dal tempo”. Come uscirne? Con la pillola universale, quella che a militare curava tutte le malattia. In filosofia la pillola universale è la categoria dell’illusione: se qualcosa c’ è ma non dovrebbe esserci allora è un’illusione. Ecco, per ES il tempo è un’illusione: il Socrate castano è in realtà eterno, non puo’ finire nel nulla (nichilismo!) per essere sostituito d’emblé da un Socrate imbiancato. L’occidente, sempre secondo Severino, ha firmato la sua condanna nel momento stesso in cui ha cominciato a “pensare” in questo modo distorto e intimamente nichilistico: così facendo, infatti, ha pensato quel nulla che mette in tutti i suoi pensieri e finirà per inghiottirlo. A supporto cita Einstein, che gode di buona stampa. Sono trent’anni che sento Severino maledire il “divenire” e dire che il nulla si porterà via l’occidente intero. Non vorrei che prima o poi anche lui, come gli orologi rotti, possa dire: “avete visto che avevo ragione?” (in realtà lo dice ogni volta che la borsa cala di 3 punti). E il Socrate imbiancato? In che relazione sta il Socrate imbiancato con il Socrate castano? Personalmente, non l’ho capito molto bene, probabilmente i due coesistono fuori dal tempo in una dimensione preservata dall’azione corruttrice del mondo come ci appare, esattamente come le due frasi “Socrate è castano” e “Socrate è bianco”.  Non capisco cosa questo possa significare in concreto – forse dovremmo farci buddisti o abbracciare non so quale misticismo parmenideo – ma affinché i conti di ES quadrino deve essere così.
Ma quali sono i vantaggi che ci regala una simile posizione? No perché io rinuncio a BS solo se vengo remunerato a dovere, sia chiaro. Sì, certo, leviamo di mezzo il tempo, e in filosofia se si puo’ levare di mezzo qualcosa è sempre un successo. Tuttavia, il tempo, nei fatti della vita, è un’evidenza talmente potente che nel mio resoconto, anche se resta, non mi dà particolare fastidio. C’è poi la questione del nichilismo, che però non ho afferrato fino in fondo. Il fatto che le cose finiscano puo’ essere spiacevole ma renderle tutte eterne per evitare l’inconveniente mi sembra decisamente poco riconciliabile con l’esperienza quotidiana. Non c’è un rimedio meno radicale e più conforme al BS? Per me sì, ma qui non è la sede adatta per discuterne.
LA MANIA DI TIRARE TUTTO NEL TEMPO
Ma torniamo alle virgolette di cui sopra, ES le odia a tal punto che quando non riesce a neutralizzarle portando le cose della vita fuori dal tempo cerca di portare i concetti nel tempo.
Qualcuno ricorda per esempio il problema filosofico dei futuri contingenti? Forse chi ha fatto il liceo avrà una reminiscenza, si tratta di un imbarazzante problema logico che sorge quando si considerano quelle affermazioni che predicono un evento futuro né inevitabile né impossibile. Se dico “questo post avrà una conclusione” (si notino le virgolette), posso ben considerare vera una frase del genere (leggetelo tutto e constaterete che in effetti ha una fine). Domanda: oggi questa affermazione è vera, ok, ma lo era anche ieri? Evidentemente sì. Magari io, ieri, non sapevo con esattezza che lo fosse ma lei era vera ugualmente. Ora, l’imbarazzo sta nel fatto che se l’affermazione era vera “anche ieri”, allora il semplice evento che io abbia concluso questo post non è una mia libera scelta ma qualcosa di determinato a priori. Infatti, già ieri poteva dirsi con certezza che la cosa si sarebbe verificata. ES, razionalista impunito e purissimo, non oppone resistenza e cede alla logica paradossale dei futuri contingenti: considera legittimo questo ragionamento e conclude che sì, è così, noi tutti siamo :determinati” (eterni e determinati, dunque). Ma il BS, a cui tutto questo puzza tremendamente, si oppone eccome e replica: no, io ho concluso liberamente il mio post, se solo avessi voluto non lo avrei fatto, quindi il ragionamento di cui sopra è in qualche modo fallace. In realtà, esistono buoni argomenti per sostenere le conclusioni del buon senso,  basta riabilitare l’uso delle virgolette, ovvero differenziare la frase “questo post avrà una conclusione” da fatto che questo post avrà una conclusione: la prima esiste fuori dal tempo, il secondo nel tempo. E’ chiaro che se qualcosa esiste fuori dal tempo dire che esiste oggi o esiste ieri non ha senso (i filosofi dicono che indicizzare l’eterno  è illecito), cosicché chiedersi se la frase “questo post avrà una fine” era vera IERI è una domanda senza senso poiché è privo di senso far viaggiare avanti e indietro nel tempo una frase che è sensata solo se considerata in una dimensione atemporale.
RITENTA. SARAI PIU’ FORTUNATO
Nella canonica distinzione tra intellettuali-volpe (che sanno molte cose) e intellettuali-ricci (che ne sanno una sola ma grande), ES appartiene chiaramente alla seconda categoria: ogni volta che lo leggo va a parare sempre lì! Eppure non convince mai: il suo tentativo di “tirare tutto fuori dal tempo” mi sembra uno sforzo innaturale nonché sterile, il suo tentativo di “tirare tutto nel tempo” mi sembra addirittura illegittimo. Direi, almeno per ora, di stare fedeli al Buon Senso, domani si vedrà.
Risultati immagini per emanuele severino

domenica 14 ottobre 2018

1HL 1 The Climate Change Objection to Economic Growth

11 The Climate Change Objection to Economic Growth
Note:11@@@@@@

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,223
justice is as much about creating conditions that are, as much as reasonably possible, conducive to productive or positive-sum relations between people across the globe.
Note:LA TESI DEL LIBRO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,224
engine of growth,
Note:LA RELAZIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,228
continued economic growth requires the emission of carbon dioxide. But as we all know, the atmosphere is heating up;
Note:L OBIEZIONE CONTRO LO SVILUPPISMO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,233
By cranking up the engines of the global market economy, we could end sacrificing the environment
Note:IL RISCHIO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,238
because dangerous climate change is coming, it is imperative that we have further growth.
Note:DOBBIAMO ALLORA RETTIFICARE L AUSPICIO?…FORSE DOBBIAMO RAFFORZARLO!

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,239
A Comparative Approach
Note:Ttttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,240
“stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”
Note | Location: 3,241
OBBIETTIVO IMPOSSIBILE DELL ONU

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,241
temperatures will continue to rise for at least 50 more years no matter what we do.
Note:INEVITABILE...ANCHE A EMISSIONI ZERO DOMANI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,242
The levels of carbon currently in the atmosphere will make that happen.
Note:Ccccccccxxx

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,244
The world’s carbon emissions are still growing.
Note:OGGI....DOMANDA...È DESISERABE ABBATTERE?

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,245
Even stabilizing current levels of emissions would mean continued heating.
Note:STABILIZZARE NN BASTA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,247
Our question is how, not whether, we are going to live in a warming world.
Note:UNA QUESTIONE PIÙ REALISTICA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,248
growth in the world’s emissions is due to economic growth in the developing world.
Note:LA CONDIZIONE OGGI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,250
Things such as infrastructure, health care, education, transport, and leisure, as well as the availability of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioning, are all essential to solving the problems of world poverty.
Note:POVERTÀ O RISCALDAMENTO?… DILEMMA....BEN POCO SI PUÓ FARE SENZA ENERGIA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,253
to demand that economic growth in the developing world stop
Note:PRIMA POSSIBILE RI CHIESTA DELL ECOLOGISYA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,254
let the developing world grow, but insist that the developed world greatly reduce its emissions
Note:SECONDA RICHIESTA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,255
to invest in noncarbon based energy production so as to allow further increases in energy use while decreasing carbon emissions.
Note:TERZA POSIZIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,257
Options one and two aim to impose those costs on different populations, while option three will have its own, different costs.
Note:CHI PAGA?

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,260
That is, we cannot endorse a certain policy without asking whether the costs it imposes are acceptable in light of the available alternatives.
Note:NATURA COMPARATIVA DELLA SCELTA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,261
warming
Note:COSTO 1

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,262
reduced growth
Note:COSTO 2

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,268
The Cost of Foregoing Growth
Note:Ttttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,271
Darrel Moellendorf argues that it’s unreasonable for the world’s poor to bear the costs of climate change
Note:UNA POSIZIONE SULLE SCELTE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,281
the earth naturally provides a good climate and environment for humans, but thanks to industrialization, we are now ruining that.
Note:L ASSUNTO ERRATI DA CUI PARTONO MOLTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,282
Absent technology, most of the Earth is a lousy place for human beings
Note:LA REALTÀ

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,284
Without technology, many places are too cold for us. Many places are too hot.
Note:PER NN CONTARE LA SALUBRITÀ

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,288
What makes Earth livable (outside of a narrow range) is technology.
Note:Ccccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,290
Our ability to live all over the world is technology-driven.
Note:Cccccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,291
When people are poor, not only are they more likely to suffer from starvation or disease, but their ability to cope with bad weather and weather disasters is also much worse.
Note:POVERTÀ ED ECOLOGIA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,294
weather-related deaths have declined dramatically over the past century. Despite a much larger population,
Note:INFATTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,295
deaths are only about one-fiftieth now what they were 80 years ago.
Note:Cccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,296
the EM-DAT International Disaster Database at the Université Catholique de Louvain,
Note | Location: 3,297
DATABASE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,297
costs of disasters has risen over the past 80 years
Note:COSTI SU MA MRTI GIÙ

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,322
The fire that destroyed almost every house in London in 1666 produced only about £1.5 billion of damage in 2016 pounds.
Note:UN ESEMPIO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,326
As countries get wealthier, the economic costs of disasters tends to go up. But it’s much better, of course, to be rich and have your mansion damaged than to be poor and have your shack destroyed, even if the latter shows up as a smaller economic loss.
Note:DANNI ECONOMICI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,334
the total economic damage done by natural disasters, as a percentage of world product, remains roughly the same.
Note:ALTRO FATTO DECISIVO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,346
wealth allows us to better deal with storms and earthquakes. Wealthy people may have fancier cars, but they are also more likely to survive disasters. They are better able to avoid disasters, they live in stronger houses, they have better warning systems, and get better help afterward.
Note:CONCLUSIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,348
the risk of death from environmental factors is much higher in poor countries
Note:INFATTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,355
A wealthier world is also a world in which more human minds can be dedicated to high-level problem-solving rather than meeting basic needs.
Note:ALTRO VANTAGGIO DEI RICCHI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,361
“To give an idea of the estimated damages in the uncontrolled (baseline) case, those damages in 2095 are $12 trillion, or 2.8% of global output, for a global temperature increase of 3.4 °C above 1900 levels.”
Note:IL DANNO IN TERMINI DI PIL CALCOLATO DA NORDHAUS....RITARDO DI UN ANNO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,363
product in 2095 will be $450 trillion
Note:IL CHE SIGNIFICA CHE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,364
he’s assuming a modest 2.5% annual growth rate.
Note:E QS STANDO PRUDENTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,364
By contrast, stopping growth in order to save the climate would condemn billions of people to “poverty and disease for the indefinite future.”
Note:X CONTRO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,366
Climate change makes us worse off. Growth makes us better off. What we should do depends on the relative strength
Note:RICAPITOLANDO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,367
On Nordhaus’s estimate, even if we do nothing to reduce climate change, we’ll probably be vastly better off in 2095 than we are now.
Note:NORDHAUS

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,370
the average person worldwide by 2095 will be as rich as the average German or Canadian right now.
Note:Ccccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,373
The 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change
Note:UN CALCOLO PIÙ PESSIMISTA...MA LA SOSTANZA NN CAMBIA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,374
climate change will reduce economic output by 20%.
Note:NEL 2100

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,375
climate change will reduce world product in 2100 by 20% compared to a hypothetical baseline in which carbon emissions and temperatures had not risen.
Note:TRADOTTO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,380
The Netherlands and Bangladesh are both in large parts beneath sea level. But we need not worry about rising sea levels in the Netherlands nearly as much as we do in Bangladesh, because the Dutch can afford to protect themselves.
Note:IMMAGINE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,384
The Case for Growth Revisited
Note:Ttttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,384
The case for growth survives the threat of climate change, then.
Note:LA NS CONCLUSIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,387
The just thing for us to do is to implement policies that lead to growth and in turn outweigh the negative effects of climate change.
Note:STRATWGIA OTTIMA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,388
Some who think that more growth is not needed think that we already have the economic output to solve world poverty.
Note:I REDISTRIBUZIONISTI NATURALISTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,390
We just need to re-allocate consumption
Note:Cccccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,391
freezing world output at current levels will not in fact stop global warming.
Note:PRIMO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,395
it’s questionable whether current output is enough to end world poverty.
Note | Location: 3,395
SECONDO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,395
World product per capita in 2015 was roughly $16,000 in current USD.19 This is about on par with the US poverty line,
Note:INFATTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,400
Not all economic production occurs in a form that could, in principle, be converted to income and transferred or redistributed to individuals.
Note:PROBLEMA PRATICO....POI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,401
redistribution from developed to developing nations does not have a track record of success.
Note:LO SAPPIAMO BENE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,405
allowing the world’s poor to migrate to richer countries will itself cause growth,
Note:UNA COSA FRENATA DALLA REDISTRIBUZIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,407
The price will be that the world’s poor are morally required to remain as they are
Note:CONSEG DELLA REDISTRIB

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,409
The challenge, then, is not whether we should encourage growth in light of climate change, but to what extent and where to encourage growth.
Note:LA VERA QUESTIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,411
Connections Part I: Innovation and the Environment
Note:Ttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,412
Perhaps we should not stop overall economic growth, but reduce it.
Note:TORNIAMO ALLA PRIMA IPOTESI: FRENARE I RICCHI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,414
the relation between growth and our ability to avoid harming the environment.
Note:MA SONO PROPRIO LORO CHE HANNO PIÙ CHANXE DI RINNOVARE...OLTRE AL FATTO CHE LORO INQUINANO SEMPRE MENO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,417
there seems to exist a certain turning point, around $9,000 GDP/capita, at which countries typically start to pollute less per additional dollars’ worth of output.
Note:RICCHEZZA E INQUINAMENTO...CURVA DI KUZNETS

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,422
Carbon emissions in 1900 were 1.8 tons per $1,000/GDP in $2005 USD. Emissions peaked in the 1930s at about 2.8 tons per $1,000/GDP. Since then they have fallen steadily, to about .4 tons per $1,000/GDP today.
Note:L ESEMPUO DEGLI USA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,426
environmental quality functions like a “superior good,” a good that is pursued more strongly by those with higher incomes.
Note:AMBIENTE BENE DI LUSSO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,446
Connections Part II: The Ability to Pay Principle
Note:Ttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,447
A different possible response would aim to reduce growth overall, while redirecting its negative effects away from the world’s poor.
Note:SECONDA SOLUZIONE....DECRESCERE TUTTI E COMPENSARE I POVERI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,449
Darrel Moellendorf
Note:RAPPRESENTANTE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,453
since mitigating climate change should not harm the development of the world’s poor, the world’s developed countries should bear the burdens
Note:RIPETIAMO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,455
that principle does not imply an ability-to-pay policy. Indeed, the principle may well advocate against such a policy.
Note:COLPO DI SCENA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,456
countries aren’t autarkic economies, such that what happens in one does not affect the others.
Note:INFATTI....LE RICCHEZZE SONO INTERCONNESSE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,457
reducing growth in one society can seriously impact the possibility of growth in another.
Note:ESITO POSSIBILE...I RICCHI SONO IMPOSSIBILI DA TASSARE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,465
The poor country thus suffers proportionally more even though it was not subject to any emissions reduction.
Note:CI SONO CASI IN CUI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,476
Climate Change in a World of Incentives
Note:Tttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,477
Reducing growth and reducing emissions are not the same thing.
Note:PARTIAMO DA UN CONCETO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,480
The first should be obvious, even if it’s rarely really mentioned. Fossil fuel subsidies around the world amount to about $500 billion per year. Most of these occur in developing countries, especially in oil-rich ones like Venezuela or Saudi Arabia.
Note:DUE MANOVRE...LA PRIMA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,485
The second is more familiar: a carbon tax.
Note:SECONDA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,487
It will incentivize the development of precisely those new and less-polluting technologies
Note | Location: 3,488
INCENTIVO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,489
The final and perhaps most important thing, however, is a further emphasis on one of our central conclusions. In order to get the incentives right, we must give people the option to act on them. And this means freeing the world from the enormous barriers that exist against free movement.
TERZA MANOVRA

venerdì 12 ottobre 2018

HL 6. The Surprise Quiz

6. The Surprise Quiz Michael Huemer1
Note:6@@@@@@@@@@POSSIBILE APPLICAZIONE A EAAN E ALL EVOLUZIONIAMOIL TEISMO E' UNA CREDENZA STABILE (UNA VOLTA ADOTTATA NON VA RETTIFICATA)L'EVOLUZIONISMO ATEO E' UNA CREDENZA AUTORIMUOVENTE (UNA VOLTA ADOTTATA DEVE ESSERE RETTIFICATA DA MAGGIORI DUBBI)COME AVVIENE QUESTA RETTIFICA?: QUESTO CAPITOLO LO SPIEGA POICHé ANCHE LA CREDENZA DEL QUIZ SORPRENDENTE E' INSTABILE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,012
6.1 The Paradox
Note:Tttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,012
A professor announces to his class that there will be a surprise quiz next week.
Note:DESCRIZIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,015
The class meets five days a week, Monday through Friday.
Note:Ccccccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,015
The students go home and try to deduce when the quiz will occur. “Suppose it comes on Friday,” one student reasons. “Then we’d know by the end of Thursday’s class that it was coming on Friday, since that would be the only day of the week left. So then it wouldn’t be a surprise. So the quiz can’t be on Friday.” “What about Thursday?” says another. “Since we’ve just eliminated Friday, that means that if it hasn’t come by Wednesday evening, we’d know it was coming on Thursday, and it wouldn’t be a surprise. So it can’t be on Thursday either.” By similar reasoning, they eliminate Wednesday, then Tuesday, then Monday.
Note:Ccccccccc

Note | Location: 3,019
E COSÌ VIA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,022
The students breathe a sigh of relief, knowing that the surprise quiz cannot be given at all. They spend the weekend partying and getting drunk instead of studying. The next week, the professor gives a quiz on Wednesday. Everyone is surprised.
Note:CONCLUSIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,029
6.2 Rejecting the Assumptions
Note:Tttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,031
The students believe without question everything the professor asserts
Note:PRIMO ASSUNTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,033
The students believe all the logical consequences of their beliefs.
Note:SECONDO ASSUNTO...RAZIONALISMO DEI RAGAZZI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,035
The students are fully aware of their own mental states and abilities.
Note:Ccccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,037
these are not realistic assumptions
Note:GIUDIZIO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,039
Perhaps it would be impossible to surprise ideal (perfectly-reasoning, perfectly self-aware, credulous) students.
Note:SOLUZIINE VENTILATA...MA NSODDISFACENTE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,042
it is highly implausible that one cannot give a surprise quiz to an ideal student
Note:INFATTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,045
If the ideal student reasons to the conclusion that the surprise quiz cannot be given on any day, then the student will, after all, be surprised
Note:E POI LA CONTRADDIZ RESTA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,047
a perfect reasoner cannot be perfectly credulous.
Note:FORSE LE PREMESSE NN SONO FALSE MA CONTRADDITTORIE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,053
They are, however, reasonably credulous: they are prima facie disposed to accept the professor’s statements about the conduct of the class, unless and until they have good reasons for doubting those statements. This looks like enough to get the paradox going.
Note:MA IL PARADOSSO PUÓ ESSERE RILASSATO E RESO PIÙ CREDIBILE ELIMINANDO IL RISCHIO DI CONTRADDIZIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,055
6.3 What Is Surprise?
Note:Ttttttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,055
thinking in terms of vague,
Note:L ORIGINE DI MOLTI PARADOSSI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,061
You are surprised by an event when you previously had zero credence that it would occur.
Note:PRIMA DEF DI SORPRESA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,064
You are surprised by an event when you previously assigned it less than 100% credence.
Note:SECONDA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,069
You are surprised by an event when you previously considered it sufficiently unlikely, that is, your credence that it would occur fell below some threshold, t.
Note:TERZA E PIÙ PLAUSIBILE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,072
“surprise threshold”
Note:CONCETTO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,073
This is both vague and context-dependent.
Note:VAGHEZZA NN ELIMINATA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,085
the teacher’s initial announcement, strictly speaking, lacks propositional content.
Note:CONSEGUENZA DELLA VAGHEZZA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,086
nor is this vagueness the source of the paradox. The teacher’s announcement has sufficient meaning to be aptly made,
Note:MA QUI IL PARADOSSO CONTINUA A REGGERE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,090
we aptly use vague language all the time in ordinary life.
Note:COME LA VAGHEZZA CHE REGGE NEL LINGUAGGIO COMUNE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,091
6.4 Quiz Comes if and Only if Surprising
Note:Tttttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,092
If the quiz has not come by the end of class on Thursday,
Note:COSA PENSA LO STUDENTE IN QS CONDIZIONI?

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,094
The professor is committed to giving a quiz,
Note:1

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,096
The professor is committed to giving a quiz if and only if it will be a surprise.
Note:2

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,099
Case (ii), however, generates a (sub-)paradox, which is the subject of the present section;
Note:SUB PARADOX

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,101
6.4.1 Self-Undermining Beliefs with a Vague Surprise Threshold
Note:TtttttttttttttttCAPITOLO CHIAVE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,102
Thursday night, one student says, “Well, it looks like the quiz is coming tomorrow.” Another says, “But wait. Since you just predicted that, that means it won’t be a surprise. Since he has no interest in giving a non-surprise quiz, the prof won’t give a quiz at all.” A third replies, “But wait. Since you just predicted no quiz, that means that it would be a surprise if he gave one.
Note:IL SUB PARADOSSO...DESCRIZIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,106
A fourth replies, “But wait . . .”
Note:Cccccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,106
If the students think there will be a quiz, they can infer that there won’t.
Note:IN SINTESI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,108
What can the students rationally do?
Note:LA DOMANDA.....

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,108
Answer: assign an intermediate degree of belief.
Note:Cccccccccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,109
assign a degree of belief such that, if a quiz is given, it will be a borderline case of a surprise.
Note:Ccccccccccc

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,117
Fig. 6.1 Optimal credence with a vague surprise threshold
Note:CI CREDENZA INIZIALE: CHE PROB CI SONO CHE LO DARÀ?CF CREDENZA INFERITA: DATA CI INFERISCO CHE LO DARÀ ALLA PROB XCI E CF SI INSEGUONO.L UNICA CREDENZA STABILE È QIELLA SULLA BOSETTRICE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,124
6.4.2 Self-Undermining Beliefs with a Precise Threshold
Note:Ttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,125
if your credence in some event is exactly 60% or below, then the event will count as “surprising”
Note:SUPPONIAMO DI ESSERE PRECISI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,130
if your credence is 60%, it should be much more than 60%. There is no stable credence.
Note:NN C È STABILITÀ

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,139
For example, imagine a series of one thousand cups of water, cup 1 through cup 1,000, each having a very slightly higher physical temperature than the last. You try feeling the water in each cup, in sequence. For any two adjacent cups, you can’t tell which one feels warmer to you. But by the end, you can tell that cup 1,000 feels much warmer than cup 1. This shows that there can be temperature sensations so similar that one cannot introspectively distinguish them, even though one is in fact warmer-feeling than the other.
Note:SULLA CONTINUITÀ DEGLI STATI MENTALI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,148
A credence of 0.6 would be introspectively indistinguishable from a credence of 0.600001 or 0.599999.
Note:LA CONTINUITÁ DEGLI STATI MENTALI NN ESISTE....QUINDI LA SOGLIA PRECISA È IMPOSSIBILE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,154
if the quiz were on Friday, it would be a borderline case of a surprise (if “surprise” is vague),
Note:CONCLUSIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,156
6.4.3 The Rest of the Week
Note:Tttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,175
6.5 Quiz Comes, with or without Surprise
Note:Tttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,177
The professor is committed to giving a quiz, whether or not it will be a surprise.
Note:CONSIDERIAMO QS EVENTUALITÀ

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,181
the professor would prefer the quiz to be a surprise,
Note:PRECISAZIONE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,183
6.5.1 No Friday Surprise
Note:Tttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,184
the students should adopt a very high credence that a quiz will come on Friday. Not 100%, because there is always a chance that the professor will have forgotten,
Note:GIOVEDÌ SERA E ANCORA NESSUN QUIZ

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,188
the quiz very probably will not be on Friday.
Note:IL PENSIERO DELLA DOMENICA SERA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,188
6.5.2 Borderline Thursday Surprise
Note:Ttttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,192
he’ll probably give it Thursday.
Note:MERCOLEDÍ SERA...CONSIDERANDO CHE VENE SAREBBE POCO SORPRENDENTE...

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,193
Since you just made that prediction, it wouldn’t be a surprise on Thursday
Note:MA....SI RIPETE LA SITAUZIONE PRECEDENTE IL GIOVEDÌ ANZICHÈ VENERDÌ

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,195
Since you just made that prediction, it would be a surprise tomorrow.
Note:INFATTI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,197
we have a self-undermining belief system.
Note:ANCORA COME PRIMA

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,201
The solution is to assign a credence at about the threshold.
Note:LO STUDENTE RAZIONALE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,203
if the quiz occurred on Thursday, it would be a borderline case of a surprise,
Note:QUINDI

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,214
6.6 Surprising as Not-Most-Expected
Note:Ttttttttttt

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,215
There is a version of the story where it would be impossible to give a surprise quiz. Suppose we define an “expected” event as one that was antecedently considered the most likely of the alternatives
Note:UN CASO OSTICO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,220
On this definition of “surprise quiz”, the professor cannot follow through on his promise
Note:PROMESSA IMPOSSIBILE

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,221
He cannot do it on Friday, since on Thursday night, trivially, the students would consider Friday the most likely day
Note:ESEMPIO

Yellow highlight | Location: 3,229
So the professor can’t give a surprise quiz. But this is not paradoxical. This is just a result of the peculiar definition of “surprise”,
NESSUN PARADOSSO

ASSICURAZIONI

Stabilire il premio dell’assicurazione automobilistica puo’ essere un affare molto delicato, specie negli USA:
1) come clienti, afro-americani e ispanici tendono ad avere punteggi più bassi rispetto a bianchi e asiatici ma prezzarli diversamente puo’ avere delle contraddizioni.
2) L’alternativa – subottimale – è vendere assicurazioni a prezzo differenziato secondo l’area geografica. Certo, in questo modo i “buoni guidatori” che vivono in aree a più alto rischio vengono penalizzati, ma forse è giusto così.
Domanda: è più “discriminatorio” il primo o il secondo metodo?
MANAGERIALECON.BLOGSPOT.COM
The FTC's Bureau of Economics just relased their FACTA study , which concludes that: Credit scores effectively predict ... the total cos...

Futuri contingento per Huemer

Future contingents

I think they have truth-values; they are just unknown to us. Problem: this might seem to interfere with free will, via this sort of argument: if future contingents have truth values, then it was true in 5000 B.C. that I was go
ing to type up this comment. If that was true in 5000 B.C., then I could not have made it false, because in general, one cannot change the past. Therefore, I could not have failed to type up this comment; so I lack free will in that respect.

There are at least two good responses to this. Response A: the truth of a proposition is not time-indexed. It is either true that p or false that p, not "true at a time". So "it was true in 5000 B.C. . . ." doesn't make sense. It's just true, timelessly, that I type up this message; that's not a fact about the past.

Response B: There are two kinds of "facts about the past", which we can call "hard facts about the past" and "soft facts about the past". The hard facts are fundamentally, irreducibly about the past. The soft facts about the past, by contrast, are ones that obtain solely in virtue of stuff that happens in the present or future (they are like Cambridge properties). It's true that one has no choice about the hard facts about the past. But it's not true that one has no choice about the soft facts about the past. Now, [its being true in 5000 B.C. that I was going to write this comment] is just a soft fact about the past. So I can have a choice about it now.

An analogy: You might think that I can't instantaneously affect things on the other side of the galaxy. But wait: I can cause a star on the other side of the galaxy to acquire the property "being 10,000 light years away from a person who is doing a handstand". That is "changing" the star in the same sense that I can "change" the past.


"If it is true right now that I will eat donuts next week, then there is something right now that makes that statement true. But, if I have free will, then nothing about the world right now makes that statement true."

Again, two responses: 


A. There is no "true right now." That's a confusion. It can be true that x happens at t, or false that x happens at t. But it's not "true at t1" that x happens at t2; the first time index doesn't mean anything.

B. Alternately, if you want to say it can be true at t1 that x happens at t2, this would just mean that x happens at t2. I.e., this would be a soft fact about t1, a fact "about t1" that obtains solely in virtue of what happens at t2. So while there is nothing about the world at t1 that makes it true, there is something about the world at t2 that makes it true, and that's enough.


Can you explain what it means for a proposition to be true at a time? Note that the proposition already has a time index in it, and then you're saying that the *truth* of it is indexed to another time. Can you explain what that means?

I know what "It'
s true that a is F" means. I think it means, basically, that a is F. What about "It's true that a is F at t1"? This means that a is F at t1. What about "It's true at t2 that a is F at t1"? Um . . . a is F at t1 at t2?

Propositions are abstract objects, like universals. Like universals, they are not in time. Events and states of affairs take place at particular times (or during particular time intervals); abstract objects do not happen at times or during time intervals.

Truth is a relation between a proposition and some things in the world that the proposition is 'about'. Those things might themselves be in time. 

So you could ask: if a relation obtains between a temporal thing and an atemporal thing, is the relation itself in time?

Hard to say. But if it is in time at all, its time coordinate must be that of the temporal relatum.


 I, regrettably, do not understand the view that abstract objects *are* in time. 

I think I sort of understand what it means to say that a number "exists". I don't understand what is meant if you add "today" or "at 6:00 GMT" after that. I'm not 
saying numbers exist at every time. I'm saying I don't know what "at such-and-such time" means when applied to a purely abstract object.

As far as I understand it, temporal modifiers such as "today" or "some time in the 1950's" apply to states or events that occur at particular times. It's just a category error to apply them to anything else. Abstract objects are not occurrences, so they don't have time coordinates.