1-2-3-5-6-7-8-9-11-12 (non dettagliati) Nell’era del pollo di Trilussa

Nell’era del pollo di Trilussa

Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation – Tyler Cowen

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Trigger warning – riflessioni a tutto campo sul mondo contemporaneo, in particolare quello del lavoro –

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• Mai tanti giovani disoccupati, mai tanti lavori strapagati... 
• Perchè il grande split sul lavoro? E perché la forbice è destinata ad aumenterà?
• Alcuni lavoratori saranno sostituiti dalle macchine e i loro compensi finiranno nelle mani dei pochi che producono, coordinano o completano il lavoro delle macchine stesse.. 
• Tre forze dietro lo split: macchine intelligenti, globalizzazione e dicotomia tra settori dinamici e settori stagnanti. Esempio: IT è un settore dinamico, la scuola o la siderurgia sono stagnanti… 
• La domanda da farsi: sei un complemento del pc o un suo competitor? Nel secondo caso lascia ogni speranza… 
• Esempi di tecno già al lavoro tra noi: driveless car, giornalismo automatico, dottore automatico, formatore di coppie, pc scacchista, robot industriali, scegliersi il film giusto, costruire e rintracciare profili criminali, predizione esito elezioni (dati i tuoi amici, i film che guardi, i libri che leggi eccetera, chi voti nn è un mistero x nessuno), profilare gli esseri umani come consumatori, macchine della verità, tecnologia self scrutiny Alle macchine nn è richiesta la xfezione, il termine di paragone è l’uomo e in molti casi sono già avanti…
• Chi vince? Chi sono gli amici del pc? Professioni in cui l’elemento umano è imprescindibile: il marketing e i servizi personali… 
• L’abilità + importante: attirare l’ attenzione dei miliardari,magari con servizi personali di nicchia e personalizzati… 
• Perché i manager sono superpagati? Perché coordinano risorse umane e prendono decisioni dove l’elementosoggettivo delle probabilità è forte e la fortuna conta molto…
• O-ring production: dove lavorano grandi talenti occorrono anche professionisti magari meno qualificati ma molto scrupolosi poiché potrebbero distruggere ingente valore. Qui le donne potrebbero avere una chance in più, sono delle attente esecutrici di ordini… 
• Classe media la polarizzazione del mercato del lavoro sarà ancora più radicale (vedi split)… 
• Necessità di un reddito minimo di cittadinanza…
• Grandi opportunità per giovani più brillanti: tanto IQ e poca esperienza. L’esperienza non è più un valore primario: è quello che chiedono i settori acerbi ad alto valore aggiunto. E’ la brain society… 
• Il consulente: i ricconi amano averne quando devono affrontare la complessità. Anche solo per l’aspetto psicologico: qualcuno che gli ascolta, che si interessa ai loro problemi…
• Il piccolo imprenditore? Spesso un disoccupato che si arrangia, rovesciati alcuni schemi mentali… 
• Gli scacchi free style offrono una buna analogia dell’interazione uomo macchina che ci attende. Lo scacchista free style deve prendere decisioni complesse in breve tempo e lo fa elaborando informazioni con la tecnologia integrando il tutto con le sue intuizioni. Una specie di mutante).
• I nuovi dottori raccolgono dati li elaborano integrandoli con intuizione ed esperienza, dopodiché emettono la diagnosi.
• Usa bene il tuo smartphone, sfrutta le sue potenzialità. Se già lo fai sei pronto per il nuovo mercato del lavoro…
• Contro il va dove ti porta il cuore: decidi elaborando informazioni che possano eludere i tuoi bias cognitivi, lascia all’intuizione un ruolo residuale…
• Oggi è il cliente che lavora, bisogna saper convivere contecnologie sofisticate ma imperfette, tecnologie in progress, commessi incompetente che maneggiano macchine meravigliose di cui sai più te di loro… 
• La macchina che ti aiuta ma va integrata di continuo. L’imperfezione aiuta il progresso e la “stampella umana” è imprescindibile. Dobbiamo imparare ad essere “stampelle”… 
• Il mondo sarà più “stupido” (meno vago), sarà un mondo per le macchine. Noi dovremo colmare il gap con la realtà…
• Dobbiamo imparare a convivere con la valutazione meccanizzata: dare il giusto peso ad una meritocrazia artefatta per evitare le frustrazioni.
• Problema: chi giudicherà i giudici della valutazione meccanizzata. Ecco, dovremo farlo noi proprio per alleviare le frustrazioni. Lo studio servirà anche a questo.
• Pericoli di un progresso improvviso (foom). Necessità di welfare estesi in un mondo ad alta diseguaglianza. Il reddito di cittadinanza s’imporrà un po’ ovunque ma non sarà un male: dovendo stabilire un minimo vitale tutto il resto potrà essere considerato eccedente e quindi lasciato alle decisioni private…
• Il new brave world implicherà anche problemi etici.Singolarità: è quel punto in cui l’intelligenza delle macchine supera quella umana.
• Il Test di Turing è un criterio per capire se una macchina è intelligente. Una volta superato il TT non sai con chi parli. Oggi, per esempio, il TT estetico sembra già superato.
• Problemi di cheating: l’accesso a molte fonti attraverso una potenza di calcolo notevole renderà più difficile il giudizio sulle persone.
• Taggare e isolare stringhe di ricerca sarà un’abilità fondamentale. la cultura sarà una playlist.
• Stagnazione dei salari: IT pesa sulla classe media alta quanto l’immigrazione pesa sulle classi medio basse. 
• Cosa compensa questa stagnazione nella ricchezza nazionale: 1) miglior rendimento dei capitali 2) salari skilled workers molto alti 3) prezzi al consumo più bassi… 
• Competizione e crescita sono sempre esistiti, perchè la globalizzazione è un problema? perché bisogna riconvertireuomini e mezzi. E’ la transizione il problema, non la globalizzazione.
• Temi l’outsourcing? L’ open borders la mitiga favorendo anche i conti della previdenza.
• Immigrazione: chi ama la democrazia la favorisce. E’ una forma di democrazia geografica.
• Che istruzione occorre? un’ istruzione che educhi all’umanità, alla cittadinanza, alla produttività.
• Importanza della online education e dei suoi vantaggi (time shifting, prezzi bassi, alta qualità, imparare giocando, testabilità)…
• Il ruolo della fiducia: quando la scienza e il mondo diventano troppo complessi il rischio percepito cresce e il valore della fiducia aumenta. Il fiduciario diventa una figura centrale.
• Economia: big data vs teorici. L’ economista del futuro: un interprete dei dati sfornati dalla macchina. Si va verso un’ unica scienza sociale empirica.
• Trend: + meritocrazia + diseguaglianze + super-motivati pronti a cogliere le occasioni + crisi fiscali. Necessità di far pagare i servizi pubblici a chi se li puo’ permettere, anche quelli finora gratuiti: ISEE a tutto campo.
• L’ impoverimento nei salari da compensare con cpi+tech change: in w/p lavorare su p. 
• Lavorare sulla neutralizzazione dello status: le diseguaglianze non devono più turbarci  e dobbiamo sapere che non esiste una relazione tra diseguaglianze e crimini.
• Lavorare sull’educazione etica: meno divorzi e separazioni . 
• Combatti la secolarizzazione estrema e conserva la tua speranza: + diseguaglianza + rischio+ comunità + religione… la religione è un’assicurazione sociale.

Generazione placida SAGGIO

Generazione placida

WHY AMERICANS STOPPED RIOTING AND LEGALIZED MARIJUANA – The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream – Tyler Cowen

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Trigger warning: – non c’è più il terrorismo di una volta – poca voglia di protestare – manifestazione di massa – la campana di vetro – il bromuro della burocrazia – perché la rissa non va più di moda? – organizzare manifestazioni oggi… un lavoraccio – tutti sotto controllo – piazza selvaggia e video virali –

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In order to understand how peaceful America has become, we must consider what truly turbulent times looked like.

Note:LA TURBOLENZA DI IERI

With all of our fears of terrorism, the crime waves and riots of the 1960s and the early 1970s were much more destructive. During an eighteen-month period in 1971–1972, there were more than 2,500 domestic bombings reported, averaging out to more than five a day.

Note:IL TERRORISMO DI IERI MOLTO PIÙ DISTRUTTIVO

And don’t forget the riots. Starting with the 1965 Watts clashes in Los Angeles, the country faced a wave of intensely violent and often out-of-control social unrest.

Note:RIVOLTE

Or consider the Black Panthers. The Panthers were set loose to patrol cities, armed openly with guns in the places where that was legal, with the stated aim of defending black citizens from police aggression.

Note:BLACK PANTHER

The marches and rallies of the 1960s and 1970s were often massive affairs. The group Mobilization Against the War in Vietnam put on a November 1969 rally with 500,000 people and a May 1970 event with 100,000 people, and the People’s Coalition for Peace and Justice drew about 500,000 for its April 1971 rally at the U.S.

Note:MARCE DI MASSA

Campuses today are very different places, and they are among the segments of American society where the complacent class exercises its strongest influences. …When there are demonstrations, the student demands are often for “safe spaces” rather than violent overthrow of the government …

Note:CAMPUS OGGI: SAFE SPACE

To the extent people today write of academia being disrupted, they might be referring to massive open online courses (MOOCs), which enable students to remain at home or in their dorm rooms, or to “competency-based learning,”

Note:MOOC

Here is a brief excerpt from Amm Bausum’s study of Stonewall: “Our goal was to hurt those police,” explained John O’Brien, a gay man and activist who had joined the mob.

Note:L’IMPENSABILE VIOLENZA DELLA RIVOLTA GAY

As much as nonviolence was an essential feature of big parts of the civil rights movement, many blacks in the South, including many of the most prominent movement leaders, protected themselves with firearms, in recognition of what a violent and vindictive time they were operating in.

Note:DIRITTI CIVILI E VIOLENZA

It’s worth noting that robust middle-class income growth does not predict peace and quiet, and sometimes general prosperity comes right before trouble and social unrest break out.

Note:CRESCITA ECONOMICA E VOGLIA DI CONFLITTO

WHY DON’T WE RIOT ANYMORE?

Many of the seminal events of the civil rights movement could not happen today, most of all because society is more bureaucratized, more safety obsessed, and also less tolerant of any kind of disturbance or disruption at all.

Note:BUROCRAZIEA E OSSESSIONE

The NIMBY mentality limits high-density residential housing, wind power, and turbulent protests all the same. Which neighborhood these days wants trouble at its doorstep, especially when real estate values are at stake?

Note:NIMBY MENTALITY

The application of management science to policing has been another reason why riots and rebellion have gone out of favor; their impact is too readily countered and defused. …To be sure, the recent trouble in Ferguson, Missouri, and Baltimore, Maryland, has represented cracks in this façade, a theme to which I return to later. In both cases, the initial police behavior was violent, …

Note:POLIZIA PIÙ ORGANIZZATA

The legal authorities of the city of New York succeeded in defanging the Occupy Wall Street movement with a minimum of fuss. Rather than opting for outright confrontation, and perhaps some publicity victories for the protestors, a decision was made to wait for the winter to shut down the encampments and the protests.

Note:OCCUPY

As the “occupation” continued, city authorities threw new challenges at the protestors. But these were highly legalistic rather than a show of force.

Note:LEGALISMO

Or consider the 2004 Democratic National Convention. As you might expect, there were numerous would-be demonstrators. They ended up being confined to a “Demonstration Zone,” which one federal judge described as analogous to one of Piranesi’s etchings of a prison.

Note:ZONA DIMOSTRANTI

The police strategies up through the 1970s have been described as a style of “escalated force.” If the initial level of force didn’t work in subduing the demonstrators, the strategy was to apply more force.

Note:ESCALATION

Organizing and maintaining public opposition was tougher yet during the 2003 attempts to run New York City protests against the Iraq War. …In the end, a rally of 10,000 people was permitted in the Dag Hammerskjold Plaza, on 47th Street and First Avenue, about four blocks away from the UN.

Note:ORGANIZZARE UNA MANIFESTAZIONE OGGI… UN LAVORACCIO

And post 9/11, Washington, DC, protests face yet another problem: They are possible sanctuaries for terror attacks, or at least they are perceived as such.

Note:PERICOLO TERRORISMO

It is by no means impossible to receive permission, but you have to work through the bureaucracy.

Note:IL PERMESSO AGOGNATO

Another change that favors stability over rebellion has been the greater likelihood of police, FBI, and national security establishment spying on those who are organizing domestic marches,

Note:PIÙ FACILE SPIARE

The federal government also has done its share to shut down protest. Even small protests are no longer permitted at the Jefferson Memorial, which was erected to celebrate a man who suggested that liberty periodically must be refreshed with struggle and “the blood of tyrants.”

Note:OGGI PIU’ RIGORE – TOLLERANZA ZERO

If there was any legal pointer in this direction, it came in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when the Supreme Court agreed that there could be rules limiting the geographic distribution of protest. The Court allowed for a categorization of places through what is now called the “public forum doctrine.”

Note:SVILUPPI LEGALI

Compare this to the portrait painted by Harry Kalven Jr. in his 1965 classic Negro and the First Amendment. About the state of the law at that time, Kalven wrote: “[T]he speaker has a paramount claim to the use of the public forum which the state can subject to minimal traffic controls and to breach of peace limitations.”

Note:LA BELLA PIAZZA SELVAGGIA DI UNA VOLTA

It’s not just the law that has changed; the incentives of the organizers are now fundamentally different. When a major …public event is orchestrated, such as the Million Man March of 1995, it tends to be backed by a lot of organization and capital investment. That in turn requires a lot of mainstream support. …

Note:INTERESSI IN BALLO

More recently, a viral video may do more for a cause than a very large demonstration, and of course it can reach a larger number of people.

Note:MEZZI IDONEI

In the 1960s, the challenge was to capture the attention of America, given that the country was coming out of the staid 1950s, network television dominated the media landscape, and the core mindset was quite conservative. That system of centralized media favored relatively radical steps,

MEDIA CONCENTRATI

Il mito dell’efficienza nell’impresa privata

It Takes More Than Performance – Power: Why Some People Have It—and Others Don’t – Jeffrey Pfeffer

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Trigger warning: – performance e promozioni – performance e paga – performance e fortuna – le performance sono infinite – ostentare – la figlia del capo – il leccaculo – politica e performance

1 It Takes More Than Performance
Note:1@@@@@@@@@@

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If you think it’s just in the domain of public education where success fails to guarantee job security, think again.
Note:SCUOLA E ANTIMERITOCRAZIA

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And it’s not just in the public sector where there is a weak link between job performance and career outcomes.
Note:STATALI E MULTINAZIONALI

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And it’s not just at the highest levels or just in the United States where performance doesn’t guarantee success.
Note:NON SOLO IN VETTA

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Not only doesn’t good performance guarantee you will maintain a position of power, poor performance doesn’t mean you will necessarily lose your job.
Note:LA PERFORMANCE NON E' TUTTO...ANZI

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One of the biggest mistakes people make is thinking that good performance—job accomplishments—is sufficient to acquire power and avoid organizational difficulties. Consequently, people leave too much to chance and fail to effectively manage their careers.
Note:AFFIDARSI ALLA PERFORMANCE E' AFFIDARSI ALLA FORTUNA

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THE WEAK LINK BETWEEN PERFORMANCE AND JOB OUTCOMES
Note:TTTTTTT

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More than 20 years ago social psychologist David Schoorman studied the performance appraisal ratings obtained by 354 clerical employees working in a public sector organization.
Note:SHOORMAN

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guess, supervisors who were actively involved in hiring people whom they favored rated those subordinates more highly on performance appraisals than they did those employees they inherited or the ones they did not initially support.
Note:FAVORITISMI A GO GO

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In 1980, economists James Medoff and Katherine Abraham observed that salaries in companies were more strongly related to age and organizational tenure than they were to job performance.6 Ensuing research has confirmed and extended their findings,
Note:MEDOFF

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Not only may outstanding job performance not guarantee you a promotion, it can even hurt.
Note:L'EFFICIENZA CHE DANNEGGIA

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“I’m not going to let you go because you are too good in the job you are doing for me.”
Note:RISPOSTA STANDARD AI CAPACI CHE CHIEDONO POSTI DI RESPONSABILITA'

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Most studies of job tenure examine CEOs, because CEOs are highly visible and that’s the position for which there is the best data. Performance does affect job tenure and its obverse, getting fired, but again the effects are small.
Note:CEO... I PIÙ STUDIATI

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So great job performance by itself is insufficient and may not even be necessary for getting and holding positions of power.
Note:SUFFICIENTE E NECESSARIO

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GET NOTICED
Note:TTTTTT

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People in power are busy with their own agendas and jobs. Such people, including those higher up in your own organization, probably aren’t paying that much attention to you and what you are doing.
Note:L'ATTENZIONE DEL CAPO COME RISORSA SCARSA

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The importance of standing out contradicts much conventional wisdom. There is a common saying that I first heard in Japan but since have heard in Western Europe as well: the nail that sticks up gets hammered down.
Note:OSTENTARE PAGA

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In advertising, one of the most prominent measures of effectiveness is ad recall—not taste, logic, or artistry—simply, do you remember the ad and the product?
Note:MEMORABILE

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people, other things being equal, prefer and choose what is familiar to them—what they have seen or experienced before.
Note:ROBERT ZAJONIC

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The simple fact is that people like what they remember—
Note:CCCCC

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An Italian executive who has worked in numerous large multinational corporations and has risen quickly through the ranks is an outspoken and provocative individual. Consequently, he sometimes irritates people. But as another manager told me, “decades from now I will remember him, while I will have forgotten most of his contemporaries.”
Note:ESSERE PROVOCATORI

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DEFINE THE DIMENSIONS OF PERFORMANCE
Note:TTTTTT

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Tina Brown’s performance as a magazine editor depends on what criteria you choose to evaluate her work. She presided over great growth in advertising revenue and circulation. She garnered press attention for herself and the magazines. But there was no economic profit.
Note:MR.PROFITTO E I SUOI FRATELLI

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There are limits to what you can do to affect the criteria used to judge your work. But you can highlight those dimensions of job performance that favor you—and work against your competition.
Note:ESALTATE I VOSTRI PUNTI FORTI

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REMEMBER WHAT MATTERS TO YOUR BOSS
Note:TTTTTT

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One of the reasons that performance matters less than people expect is that performance has many dimensions. Furthermore, what matters to your boss may not be the same things that you think are important. Jamie Dimon lost his job at Citigroup when he got into a tussle with Sandy Weill’s daughter, who also worked for the company. Weill cared about his family, not just about the financial results of Citigroup.
Note:LA FIGLIA DEL CAPO

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Many people believe that they know what their bosses care about. But unless they are mind readers, that’s probably a risky assumption. It is much more effective for you to ask those in power, on a regular basis, what aspects of the job they think are the most crucial and how they see what you ought to be doing.
Note:CHIEDERE

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MAKE OTHERS FEEL BETTER ABOUT THEMSELVES
Note:TTTTTTTT

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You can almost always tell at least one aspect of your job performance that will be crucial: do you, in how you conduct yourself, what you talk about, and what you accomplish, make those in power feel better about themselves?
Note:FAR STAR BENE GLI ALTRI

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And because people like themselves, people prefer others who are similar, because what is more self-enhancing than to choose someone who reminds you of—you! A large literature documents the importance of similarity in predicting interpersonal attraction.
Note:CONFORMISMO

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because people like those who are similar to them, they also favor their own groups and disfavor competitive groups—an effect called ingroup bias and outgroup derogation18—and also prefer people from their own social categories, for instance, of similar race and socioeconomic background. One sure way to make your boss feel worse is to criticize that individual, and this criticism is going to be particularly sensitive if it concerns an issue that the boss feels is important and where there is some inherent insecurity.
Note:NON CRITICARE IL GRUPPO

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The lesson: worry about the relationship you have with your boss at least as much as you worry about your job performance.
Note:LE RELAZIONI CONTANO

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One of the best ways to make those in power feel better about themselves is to flatter them. The research literature shows how effective flattery is as a strategy to gain influence.
Note:LECCARE IL CULO PAGA

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Most people underestimate the effectiveness of flattery and therefore underutilize it.
Note:METODO SOTTOVALUTATO

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There is simply no question that the desire to believe that flattery is at once sincere and accurate will, in most instances, leave us susceptible to being flattered and, as a consequence, under the influence of the flatterer.
Note:DIFFICILE CHE IL BOSS PENSI ALL'ADULATORE COME A PERSONA INSINCERA

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The people responsible for your success are those above you, with the power to either promote you or to block your rise up the organization chart.
Note:IL TUO SUCCESSO DIPENDE DAL TUO CAPO

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It is performance, coupled with political skill, that will help you rise through the ranks. Performance by itself is seldom sufficient, and in some instances, may not even be necessary.
POLITICA+EFFICIENZA

Tolleranti o bamboccioni? SAGGIO

Tolleranti o bamboccioni?

A quanto pare la violenza esercitata dall’uomo sull’uomo sembra diminuire man mano che la nostra avventura su questo pianeta avanza. Se lo dice Steven Pinker ci dobbiamo credere, è uno studioso di vaglia e avrà fatto bene i suoi conticini.

Trattasi di buona notizia?

Di sicuro è una notizia “strana”: la violenza è sempre stato unfattore vincente nella lotta evolutiva.

Per il resto, possiamo compiacerci… purché si tengano bene a mente tre caveat fondamentali:

1. Caveat Taleb: il fatto che declini la violenza non significa che declini il rischio di violenza: si puo’ anche ottenere la pace attraverso armi in grado di distruggere il pianeta in qualsiasi momento.
2. Caveat Pfeffer: la violenza declina ma noi non siamo meno violenti, abbiamo solo imparato ad evitare guerre inutili e ad offendere il prossimo in modo più raffinato.
3. Caveat Cowen: la violenza declina perché siamo più “bamboccioni”. Il bamboccione è una persona tollerante perché restia al cambiamento. La violenza, ovviamente, è un fattore di cambiamento radicale.