Non sopravvalutiamo la vita, non sottovalutiamo la libertà SAGGIO

A Foolproofer’s Handbook: How to Make the Most of Our Best Instincts. Foolproof by Greg Ip

TESI: NON SOPRAVVALUTIAMO LE VITE, NON SOTTOVALUTIAMO LA LIBERTÀ.

IN FONDO UNA VITA E’ CIO’ CHE CONTIENE.

***

In the face of this irony, what should we do? Can we truly foolproof our surroundings if we so often cause more mischief in doing so? Or should we be ecologists and allow natural systems to take their course? At the end of this journey, I concluded that the answer is neither: we must reconcile the engineers with the ecologists. But how?

Note: DI FRONTE AL RISCHIO: PRECAUZIONI O LET IT BE? MEDIARE  Edit

***

IN LODE DELL'AZZARDO.

By providing confidence, moral hazard enables society to do things and take risks that it otherwise wouldn’t, many of which make us better off.

Note: LARRY SUMMERS: PRENDERE RISCHI CI DÀ QUELLA CONFIDENZA SENZA LA QUALE L'IMPRESA UMANA È IMPOSSIBILE Edit

safety is a state of mind, not a statute. You can write laws that tell people their bank can fail, their money market fund may not pay back a dollar per share, their home is not insured if a nearby levee fails, or their uncooked food might carry dangerous pathogens. Yet this won’t change their behavior if their experience tells them that banks never fail, money market funds always pay back a dollar, the levee always holds, and uncooked food never makes them sick.

Note: SICUREZZA STATO MENTALE. CONTA TROPPO LA PSICOLOGIA Edit

expunging moral hazard would also expunge confidence and all the beneficial risk taking that confidence enables.

Note: FIDUCIA E AZZARDO MORALE. DUE FACCE DRLLA STESSA MEDAGLIA Edit

Of course, we cannot endure a crisis and recession that cost the United States from $6 trillion to $14 trillion and do nothing. The question is, what can we do that won’t make matters worse?

Note: SIA LA SICUREZZA CHE IL RISCHIO HANNO UNA LORO FUNZIONE SOCIALE . CHE FARE PER SCEGLIERE LE DOSI CORRETTE? Edit

Summers is an engineer: he is a vocal advocate of using the macroeconomic levers of government to control inflation and raise employment,

Note: SUMMERS RESTA UN INGEGNERE: PROGETTARE LE PROTEZIONI Edit

Minsky’s aphorism that “stability is destabilizing.”

MINSKY INVECE E’ IL CLASSICO ECOLOGISTA. ECCO IL SUO MOTTO.

“The jet makes things better, it connects things in better ways, but the crashes are more dramatic. If you never invented the jumbo jet, you could never have a crash that killed more than two hundred people.

Note: IL CASO DEL JUMBO JET Edit

***

IL PREZZO DI UNA VITA UMANA

Though it seems repugnant to put a price on human life, it happens all the time, when juries award damages for negligence resulting in death,

Note: PREZZARE LA VITA UMANA. TI RIPUGNA? MA LO FAI TUTTI I GIORNI, ANCHE CON I TUOI FIGLI.Edit

Federal agencies, for example, typically put the value of a statistical life at $9 million. Would you pay $9 million to save your own life (assuming you had $9 million)? Of course you would. Now let me ask the question slightly differently: would you pay $9 to reduce the chance of death by one in one million? Quite possibly not.

Note: 9 MILIONI DI DOLLARI BASTANO, NON SOPRAVVALUTIAMO LA VITA UMANA Edit

Bioethicists refer to the “rule of rescue,” the urge to help those we see are in distress, even when the help might better be devoted to serving a larger, less visible population. The rule of rescue can lead to very bad decisions.

Note: FUORI DI IPOCRISIA: A NOI NON INTERESSA LA VITA UMANA. INTERESSA LA VITA UMANA CHE VEDIAMO E TOCCHIAMO.

There is another cost that foolproofers must consider when trying to make us safer: our loss of freedom.

Note: C'È UN ALTRO COSTO TRASCURATO:  IL COSTO DELLA LIBERTÀ Edit

We really can limit danger and risk if we are willing to use rules, prohibitions, and jail time. This is one way around the Peltzman effect. If we worry that making an activity safer encourages more risk, ban the activity altogether.

Note: PROIBIZIONISMO È LA MEDICINA PIÙ EFFICACE PER AVERE SICUREZZA Edit

Opponents of seat-belt laws often base their arguments on freedom, not health. Despite overwhelming evidence that they reduce deaths and injuries, mandatory motorcycle helmet laws have been repealed in many states, often in response to litigation branding such laws an infringement on motorcyclists’ liberty and an unconstitutional exercise of police power.

Note: SEGGIOLINI E CASCHI: CHI SI OPPONE LL FA IN NOME DELLA LIBERTÀ 

***

QUANDO LO SPAZIO SALVA.

SPAZIO = SPAZIO DI MANOVRA.

SPAZIO DI MANOVRA = DIVERSITA’, ALTERNATIVE APERTE.

As I explored our efforts to create safety, I discovered one remedy that seems to work everywhere: space.

Note: IL RIMEDIO: TENIAMO LE DISTANZE Edit

For example, when I asked Adrian Lund of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety why aviation has had more success reducing accidents than automobiles have, his answer surprised me: “In aviation … it’s an easier problem to deal with.

Note: SULLA STRADA LA COSA È EVIDENTE: PERICOLO  INTERAZIONI. DA UN EQUIVOCO IL DISASTRO (IN ASSENZA DI VIE DI FUGA) Edit

My wife is a stickler for space. Early in her driving career, she learned that keeping space around your car is one of the easiest ways to avoid a collision.

Note: TENERE LE DISTANZE DAGLI ALTRI, IL GRANDE PRESERVATIVO Edit

Jadwin recommended the creation of a series of floodways — normally habitable land that would be allowed to flood to relieve pressure on the river.... By deliberately flooding less populated farmland, the Jadwin plan would protect the cities and more populated centers along the river....

Note: SPAZI DI SICUREZZA. ANCHE NEI DISASTRI NATURALI LO SPAZIO SALVA Edit

The financial and economic worlds have their equivalent of space: it’s called capital. This is essentially the cushion of shareholder capital that is available to absorb losses.

Note: L 'EQUIVALENTE DELLO SPAZIO NEL MONDO DELLA FINANZA: LA  CAPITALIZZAZIONE Edit

Capital has, correctly, become the central tool in regulators’ drive to reinforce the financial system against another crisis.

Note: PRIVILEGIARE IL CAPITALE DI RISCHIO SUL CREDITO.Edit

***

ALTRO PRESERVATIVO: PUNTARE SULLA MEMORIA.

That leads us to the final lesson of how to foolproof ourselves. As we have seen throughout this book, we often seek safety in response to fear, and fear is rooted in experience. The experience of crisis or disaster makes survivors more conscientious and risk averse. Houses built immediately after a hurricane are less likely to suffer damage in the next one....

Note: VALORIZZARE L' ESPERIENZA Edit

Moreover, experience is of limited help when disasters are rare. “One can be a particularly poor driver and never become involved in an auto accident,” note Donald MacGregor and Paul Slovic.

Note: MEMORIA: UNICA ARMA CONTRO LA RARITÀ DEI DISASTRI Edit

A country can change its attitude toward risk just as a company can. Canada drew praise in the wake of the global financial crisis for the fact that none of its banks failed or needed bailouts; indeed, they emerged stronger than they had been, an important reason Canada’s recession was much milder than that of the United States. This is often attributed to culture: the stereotype is that Canadians are more risk averse, less swashbuckling than Americans. There’s some truth to this.

Note: UN ESEMPIO: LA CRISI FINANZIARIA IN CANADA Edit

Yet the different experiences during the crisis are not all due to culture. Canadians are as susceptible to bubbles, fraudsters, and charlatans as Americans. Two small Canadian banks collapsed during the 1980s, and a crippling real estate depression laid many banks low in the early 1990s. Importantly, this left an imprint on both bankers and regulators... The Canadian government absorbed the lessons of the 1980s and 1990s as well. It created an independent regulator that steadily pushed banks to raise their capital sooner than its foreign competitors did...

Note: DISASTRI PRECEDENTI E  MAI DIMENTICATI Edit

The right tradeoff between risk and stability will maximize the units of innovation we get per unit of instability. It has taken us a century to learn that trying to put out every fire is a recipe for bigger, deadlier fires. The solution is not to let all fires burn, but to make it possible for small fires to burn without hurting people so that we save our resources for the big fires.

Note: E TORNIAMO AL PRINCIPIO GENERALE: EQUILIBRIO TRA DUE FUOCHI Edit

1 - Infoeconomy

The information economy. Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy by Carl Shapiro, Hal R. Varian

TESI: PER LA NEW ECONOMY CI VUOLE UNA NUOVA ECONOMIA.

The public rapidly gained access to new and dramatically faster communication technologies. Entrepreneurs, able to draw on unprecedented scale economies, built vast empires. Great fortunes were made. The government demanded that these powerful new monopolists be held accountable under antitrust law.

Note: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: ECONOMIE DI SCALA IMPRESSIONANTI. CHE FARE? Edit

Using the infrastructure of the emerging electricity and telephone networks, these industrialists transformed the U.S. economy, just as today’s Silicon Valley entrepreneurs are drawing on computer and communications infrastructure to transform the world’s economy.

Note: SFRUTTATA LA VECCHIA INFRASTRUTTURA DI RETE: LUCE E TELEFONI Edit

Netscape, the one-time darling of the stock market, offers a good example of how economic principles can serve as an early warning system. We’re not sure exactly how software for viewing Web pages will evolve, but we do know that Netscape is fundamentally vulnerable because its chief competitor, Microsoft, controls the operating environment of which a Web browser is but one component.... operating environment of which a Web browser is but one component.

Note: IL CONFRONTO NETSCAPE VS MICROSOFT INEGNA MOLTE COSE SU COME VANNO LE COSE IN QUESTO SETTORE, SU CHI VINCE, CHI PERDE E PERCHE’ Edit

In our framework, Netscape is facing a classic problem of interconnection: Netscape’s browser needs to work in conjunction with Microsoft’s operating system. Local telephone companies battling the Bell System around 1900 faced a similar dependency upon their chief rival when they tried to interconnect with Bell to offer long-distance service.

Note: UN PARALLELO CON L'AVVENTO DEI TELEFONI Edit

Information is costly to produce but cheap to reproduce.... Economists say that production of an information good involves high fixed costs but low marginal costs.... high fixed costs but low marginal costs.

Note: FUNZIONE PRODUTTIVA DI CHI GENERA INFORMAZIONE Edit

cost-based pricing just doesn’t work: a 10 or 20 percent markup on unit cost makes no sense when unit cost is zero. You must price your information goods according to consumer value, not according to your production cost.

Note: IL PREZZO È DETTATO DALLA DOMANDA Edit

Since people have widely different values for a particular piece of information, value-based pricing leads naturally to differential pricing.

Note: VARIABILITÀ ENORME NEI PREZZI Edit

For example, one way to differentiate versions of the same information good is to use delay. Publishers first sell a hardback book and then issue a paperback several months later. The impatient consumers buy the high-priced hardback; the patient ones buy the low-priced paperback.

Note: FONDAMENTALE LA DISCRIMINAZIONE DI PREZZO. LA STRATEGIA DEL RITARDO Edit

***

DECISIVO IL TRATTAMENTO DELLA PROPRIETÀ INTELLETTUALE.

It has long been recognized that some form of “privatization” of information helps to ensure its production.

Note: PER PRODURRE OCCORRE PRIVATIZZARE Edit

There is still the issue of enforcement, a problem that has become even more important with the rise of digital technology and the Internet. Digital information can be perfectly copied and instantaneously transmitted around the world, leading many content producers to view the Internet as one giant, out-of-control copying machine. If copies crowd out legitimate sales, the producers of information may not be able to recover their production costs.

Note: MA SU INTERNET DIFENDERE LA PROPRIETÀ È COSTOSO Edit

The history of the video industry is a good example. Hollywood was petrified by the advent of videotape recorders. The TV industry filed suits to prevent home copying of TV programs, and Disney attempted to distinguish video sales and rentals through licensing arrangements. All of these attempts failed. Ironically, Hollywood now makes more from video than from theater presentations for most productions.

Note: NON MANCANO I PRECEDENTI PER CONSTATARE LE FACILI SCAPPATOIE AI VINCOLI IMPOSTIEdit

Note: SOLUZIONE: CAMBIARE MODELLO  DI BUSINESS Edit

When managing intellectual property, your goal should be to choose the terms and conditions that maximize the value of your intellectual property, not the terms and conditions that maximize the protection.

Note: SCOPO IMPLICITO: MASSIMIZZARE IL VALORE ( E NON  PROTEZIONE DI UN DIRITTO) Edit

***

L'INFO È UN BENE ESPRIENZIALE

Economists say that a good is an experience good if consumers must experience it to value it.

Note: IL PROBLEMA DELL' INFO: PER SAPERE QUANTO VALE DEVO CONOSCERLA. Edit

free samples, promotional pricing, and testimonials to help consumers learn about new goods.

Note: SOLUZIONI POSSIBILI PER COMMERCIAZZARE L'INFO Edit

How do you know whether today’s Wall Street Journal is worth 75 cents until you’ve read it? Answer: you don’t.

Note: IL PROBLEMA Edit

there are various forms of browsing: you can look at the headlines at the newsstand, hear pop tunes on the radio, and watch previews at the movies. But browsing is only part of the story.

Note: BROWSING COME PALLIATIVO Edit

Most media producers overcome the experience good problem through branding and reputation. The main reason that we read the Wall Street Journal today is that we’ve found it useful in the past.

Note: ALTRA SOLUZIONE: REPUTAZIONE Edit

***

IL BENE PIÙ PREZIOSO: L'ATTENZIONE.

everyone is complaining of information overload.

Note: LA LAMENTELA Edit

“a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.” Nowadays the problem is not information access but information overload.

Note: IL MOTTO DI HERBERT SIMON Edit

The real value produced by an information provider comes in locating, filtering, and communicating what is useful to the consumer. It is no accident that the most popular Web sites belong to the search engines, those devices that allow people to find information they value and to avoid the rest.

Note: IL VERO VALORE NEL MONDO DELLA RETE È FILTRARE L' INFO NON PRODURLA Edit

In real estate, it is said that there are only three critical factors: location, location, and location. Any idiot can establish a Web presence—and lots of them have. The big problem is letting people know about it.

Note: UN PARALLELO CON LE IMMOBILIARI Edit

Web servers can observe the behavior of millions of customers and immediately produce customized content, bundled with customized ads.

Note: PUBBLICITÀ MIRATA SEMPRE PIÙ DECISIVA QUANDO L'ESIGENZA È ATTRARRE L'ATTENZIONE Edit

they can also access vast databases of information about customer history and demographics.

Note: IL TRACKING DICE TUTTO DI TE Edit

This new, one-to-one marketing benefits both parties in the transaction: the advertiser reaches exactly the market it wants to target, and consumers need give their attention only to ads that are likely to be of interest.

Note: PUBBLICITÀ MIRATA, BENEFICIO RECIPROCO… MA NON SOLO    

***

INFO E TECNOLOGIA.

Infrastructure is to information as a bottle is to wine: the technology is the packaging that allows the information to be delivered to end consumers.

Note: INFO E INFRASTRUTTURA. UNA SIMBIOSI. Edit

The value of the Web lies in its capacity to provide immediate access… What’s new is our ability to manipulate information, not the total amount of information available. Mom-and-pop hardware stores of yesteryear regularly checked their inventories.

Note: LA DIFFERENZA RISPETTO A IERI Edit

Indeed, in every industry we see dramatic changes in technology that allow people to do more with the same information.

Note: IL PROGRESSO: FACCIAMO DI PIÙ CON LA STESSA INFO Edit

***

LA COMPETIZIONE NELL'ERA DELLA RETE.

Traditional rules of competitive strategy focus on competitors, suppliers, and customers. In the information economy, companies selling complementary components, or complementors, are equally important. When you are selling one component of a system, you can’t compete if you’re not compatible with the rest of the system.

Note: DECISIVO PER LA COMPETIZIONE: LA COMPATIBILITÀ DEL PRODOTTO CON L'AMBIENTE ESTERNO Edit

The dependence of information technology on systems means that firms must focus not only on their competitors but also on their collaborators. Forming alliances,

Note: FORMARE ALLEANZE, ALTRO ELEMENTO FONDAMENTALE Edit

Firms have long been faced with make/buy decisions, but the need for collaboration, and the multitude of cooperative arrangements, has never been greater than in the area of infotech.

Note: MAKE/BUY DECISIONS. SEMPRE IMPORTANTE, ORA ANCORA DI PIÙ Edit

The history of the Microsoft-Intel partnership is a classic example. Microsoft focused almost exclusively on software, while Intel focused almost exclusively on hardware. They each made numerous strategic alliances and acquisitions that built on their strengths. The key for each company has been to commoditize complementary products without eroding the value of its own core strengths.

Note: UN CASO ESEMPLARE: MICROSOFT-INTEL. ALLEANZA VINCENTE Edit

Apple Computer pursued a very different strategy by producing a highly integrated product consisting of both a hardware platform and the software that ran on it. Their software and hardware was much more tightly integrated than the Microsoft/Intel offerings, so it performed better. (Microsoft recognized this early on and tried to license the Apple technology rather than investing in developing its own windowing system.) The downside was that the relative lack of competition (and, later, scale) made Apple products more expensive and, eventually, less powerful. In the long run, the “Wintel” strategy of strategic alliance was the better choice. Lock-In and Switching Costs

Note: LA STRATEGIA OPPOSTA DI APPLE: MENO ALLEANZE, INTEGRAZIKNE PIÙ DI QUALITÀ Edit

***

COSTI DI CAMBIO E COSTI TRAPPOLA.

Remember long-playing phonograph records (LPs)? In our lexicon, these were “durable complementary assets” specific to a turntable but incompatible with the alternative technology of CDs. In plain English: they were durable and valuable, they worked with a turntable to play music, but they would not work in a CD player. As a result, Sony and Philips had to deal with considerable consumer switching costs

Note: UN CASO CLASSICO DI SWITCHING COST Edit

Fortunately for Sony and Philips, CDs offered significant improvement in convenience, durability, and sound quality over LPs, so consumers were willing to replace their music libraries.

Note: LA QUALITÀ NECESSARIA PER INDURRE AL SALTO Edit

As the impending problem of resetting computers to recognize the year 2000 illustrates, users of information technologies are notoriously subject to switching costs and lock-in: once you have chosen a technology, or a format for keeping information, switching can be very expensive. Most of us have experienced the costs of switching from one brand of computer software to another: data files are unlikely to transfer perfectly, incompatibilities with other tools often arise, and, most important, retraining is required.

Note: NEL MONDO IT SWITCH COST E LOCK IN SONO LA REGOLA Edit

Switching from Apple to Intel equipment involves not only new hardware but new software.

Note: ESEMPIO Edit

Lock-in can occur on an individual level, a company level, or even a societal level.

Note: UNA SOCIETÀ BLOCCATA. IL VALORE DELLA DIVERSITÀ PER DISINCAGLIARSI Edit

We explore lock-in and switching costs in Chapters 5 and 6. We’ll examine the different kinds of lock-in, strategies to incorporate proprietary features into your product, and ways to coordinate your strategy with that of your partners.

Note: MA IL LOCK IN – PURTROPPO - PUÒ ESSERE UNA STRATEGIA DI FIDELIZZAZIONE Edit

***

ESTERNALITÀ DI RETE.

When the value of a product to one user depends on how many other users there are, economists say that this product exhibits network externalities, or network effects.

Note: DEFINIZIONE BENE DI RETE Edit

Technologies subject to strong network effects tend to exhibit long lead times followed by explosive growth. The pattern results from positive feedback: as the installed base of users grows, more and more users find adoption worthwhile. Eventually, the product achieves critical mass and takes over the market.

Note: CRESCITA ESPONENZIALE DELLE FETTE DI MERCATO Edit

The Internet exhibited the same pattern. The first e-mail message was sent in 1969, but up until the mid-1980s e-mail was used only by techies. Internet technology was developed in the early 1970s but didn’t really take off until the late 1980s. But when Internet traffic did finally start growing, it doubled every year from 1989 to 1995. After the Internet was privatized in April 1995, it started growing even faster.

Note: DINAMICA DEL BOOM DI INTERNET Edit

As a result, growth is a strategic imperative, not just to achieve the usual production side economies of scale but to achieve the demand side economies of scale generated by network effects.

Note: CRESCERE O MORIRE Edit

Netscape grabbed the Web browser market early on by giving away its product. It lost money on every sale but made up for it in volume.

Note: STRATEGIA: VENDERE IN PERDITA Edit

In competing to become the standard, or at least to achieve critical mass, consumer expectations are critical. In a very real sense, the product that is expected to become the standard will become the standard.

Note: DECISIVE LE ASPETTATIVE PRIMA ANCORA CHE I COMPORTAMENTI Edit

Competitive “pre-announcements” of a product’s appearance on the market are a good example of “expectations management.”... When network effects are strong, product announcements can be as important as the actual introduction of products...

Note: STRATEGIA DELL' ANNUNCIO

Product pre-announcements can be a two-edged sword, however. The announcement of a new, improved version of your product may cut into your competitors’ sales, but it can also cut into your own sales. When Intel developed the MMX technology for accelerating graphics in the fall of 1996, it was careful not to advertise it until after the Christmas season.

Note: L'ANNUNCIO: UNA SPADA A DOPPIO TAGLIO Edit

Because of the importance of critical mass, because customer expectations are so important in the area of information infrastructure, and because technology is evolving so rapidly, the timing of strategic moves is even more important in the information industry than in others.

Note: TIMING DECISIVO Edit

In November 1997 Sun took out full-page ads in the New York Times and other major newspapers reciting the long list of the members of the “Java coalition” to convey the impression that Java was the “next big thing.”

Note: L' ESEMPIO DI JAVA Edit

Adobe followed an openness strategy with its page description language, PostScript, explicitly allowing other software houses to implement PostScript interpreters, because they realized that such widespread use helped establish a standard.

Note: LE STRATEGIE DI ADOBE PER IMPORSI COME STANDARD Edit

***

CONSIGLI DI POLICY.

The ongoing battle between Microsoft and the Justice Department illustrates the importance of antitrust policy in the information sector.

Note: ANTITRUST AL CENTRO Edit

Competitive strategy in the information economy collides with antitrust law in three primary areas: mergers and acquisitions, cooperative standard setting, and monopolization.

Note: TRE AREE CRITICHE Edit

As a new century arrives, the Sherman Act is flexible enough to prevent the heavy hand of monopoly from stifling innovation, while keeping markets competitive enough to stay the even heavier hand of government regulation from intruding in our dynamic hardware and software markets.

Note: CONCILIARE INNOVAZIONE E COMPETIZIONE: ECCO LA SFIDA Edit

Intelligenza e razza

THE BELL CURVE DI CHAROLES MURRAY

Come collasserà lo stato sociale?

Per molti non sarà sostenibile finanziariamente.

Ma altri privilegiano una seconda ipotesi: la scienza dimostrerà che il tentativo di ridurre le diseguaglianze sociali mirando alle pari opportunità è vano poiché tali diseguaglianze si fondano su talenti con una solida base genetica, come l'intelligenza.

Un esempio? Il gap tre neri e bianchi.

Un esempio del genere - anche se presentato in forma di ipotesi -  ha attirato critiche abbondanti quanto superficiali...

... cherry picked studies, ignores copious data, and dismisses the impressive explanatory power of hereditarianism...

Le critiche si articolano intorno a quattro evidenze che ora passeremo al vaglio.

***

1.  Il gap in termini di IQ tra bianchi e neri va chiudendosi.

L'affermazione si fonda su un unico studio, per altro molto problematico...

... Although there is some evidence that the Black-White IQ gap did narrow in the 20th century, the claim that the IQ gap is now 10 points is based largely on the results of a single, heavily criticized paper, and is not consistent with the vast majority of the evidence...

Per altri studi il recupero sul gap è trascurabile e da tempo svanito...

... Murray conducted analyses of the Woodcock-Johnson cognitive test batteries and found no decrease in the Black-White gap for those born after the 1960s (and, in fact, found a slight increase in this gap since the 1960s). He found similar results using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Other scholars, examining the available evidence up to 2005 in their response to claims of a narrowing Black-White gap, concluded, “… the best evidence of the Black-White convergence over the past 100 years is between 0 and 3.44 IQ points…”...

Diciamo così: nel XX secolo c'é stato un leggero recupero che si è poi stabilizzato...

... On achievement, the Black-White gap narrowed during the 20th century, but multiple indicators of educational achievement provide convergent evidence that the gap has stopped narrowing and, in some cases, is widening...

Ecco su questo punto un giudizio riassuntivo equilibrato...

... Summarizing research on cognitive ability across the 20th century in employment and educational settings, Roth and colleagues concluded, “As a whole, these studies suggest that there are observed gains for both groups [Blacks and Whites], but the reduction in the between-group difference is either small, potentially a function of sampling error, or nonexistent for highly g loaded instruments.”... the IQ gap has stabilized near 12-15 points...

***

2. Esiste un effetto Flynn. Ovvero, l' IQ misurato nei test incrementa molto di generazione in generazione.

Sottointeso: se l' IQ è dinamico il recupero dei neri diventa possibile...

... Turkheimer and colleagues asserted that IQ scores have increased 18 points in the US from 1948 to 2002. They noted that this increase is larger than the Black-White IQ gap. They then accused Murray of ignoring the importance of this Flynn effect..

Tuttavia, questa speranza è malriposta e si fonda su una incomprensione: IQ e intelligenza non sono la stessa cosa, il dinamismo del primo non implica il dinamismo della seconda...

... secular gains in IQ are inversely correlated with g loadings whereas the Black-White gap is positively correlated with g loadings...

Analogia...

... Consider the following example: Men are taller than women (there is a height gap between men and women). Both men and women have increased in height since the 1700s. So, there is a secular increase in height (“ Flynn effect” for height). But the gap between men and women in height has remained relatively stable (in the US, it has increased slightly in the past 100 years). The cause of the secular increase (probably nutrition) is different from the cause of the disparity between men and women (almost certainly genes)...

***

3. I neri adottati in famiglie di bianchi registrano notevoli vantaggi in termini di IQ.

L'unico studio su cui si fonda questa affermazione ha almeno tre vizi, almeno per chi lo vuole utilizzare contro Murray: 1) considera solo casi di povertà estrema, 2) registra il dinamismo del gap in età infantile quando sappiamo che i gap si stabilizzano successivamente (effetto Wilson) e 3) è comunque compatibile con un'ereditarietà del 60%...

... adoption “from a poor family into a better-off one is associated with gains of 12 to 18 points.” This claim stems from an analysis of six studies with 253 total subjects, and should be interpreted cautiously for several reasons. First, in one of the studies, the “poor families” from which the children were adopted were so poor that the children were suffering from primary undernutrition at the time of adoption. Second, most of the studies examined IQ at young ages, which is important because the genetic effect (heritability) of intelligence increases with age, a phenomenon labelled the “Wilson effect” by behavior geneticist Thomas Bouchard; therefore, the gains might be smaller if the subjects had been tested later in life. Third, even if one accepted the large IQ gains uncritically, those gains are still consistent with heritability estimates of 60%, as was clearly noted by Herrnstein and Murray in The Bell Curve (see page 771, note 86). And, fourth, as with the “Flynn effect” the adoption gains are primarily on subtests that are not strongly associated with g, which means that the cause( s) of the Black-White gap probably are different from the cause( s) of adoption IQ gains....

***

4. L'ereditarietà è minore tra le classi meno abbienti. Sottointeso: dove i neri sono sovrarappresentati...

... heritability of intelligence is “markedly lower among American children raised in poverty” than among middle- or upper-class children... Turkheimer et al believe this undermines the hereditarian position because more Black than White children are raised in poverty in the US...

Tuttavia, altri studi smentiscono, e smentisce anche una rassegna esaustiva della letteratura scientifica disponibile sull’argomento...

... many other studies that have examined the heritability of cognitive ability have found no or little evidence that heritability is lower in poor children. In a meta-analysis of available studies, Tucker-Drob and Bates found that there was no overall effect of socioeconomic status on the heritability of intelligence...

Ma perché una gaffe del genere? Il solito effetto Wilson viene trascurato...

... Second, the heritability of intelligence increases with age (the “Wilson effect”); therefore, even if the heritability of intelligence in some groups was low in childhood (say, 10% or so), it is not clear that it would remain low into adulthood....

Sul tema gli studi più aggiornati sembrano chiarire una volta per tutte… 

... Third, researchers recently found evidence that the heritability of intelligence is the same in Blacks and Whites. In fact, this was found in the same sample of youths (but also including non-twin siblings and half-siblings) that Turkheimer used for his original analysis...

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Fin qui abbiamo visto come gli argomenti critici contro l'ipotesi ereditaria non tengano, ora vediamo come quelli a supporto siano ben più solidi.

1. La correlazione tra dimensioni del cranio, intelligenza e razze è robusta e coerente...

... Best evidence suggests a small to moderate correlation between brain size and... intelligence; there is a pattern of brain size differences that matches IQ scores. East Asians have larger brains than Caucasians, who have larger brains than African Americans....

2. È possibile un rendiconto evoluzionistico coerente sui differenziali intellettivi tra le varie razze...

... Humans migrated out of Africa at least 50,000 years ago, settling in diverse... environments. Those furthest from the equator likely confronted novel cognitive challenges. Populations likely evolved higher... intelligence in response to these novel selection pressures. IQ scores correlate with distance from equator and with skin color (which... indicates ancestral distance from equator)...

3. Si registrano costantemente differenti IQ medi tra le differenti etnie...

... Many ethnic groups score differently on IQ tests. Sub Saharan Africans = 75; African... Americans = 85; Caucasians = 100; East Asians = 105; Ashkenazi Jews = 110....

4. C'è una robusta ereditarietà infra-razza  che non fatichiamo ad accettare. Tuttavia, questo fatto rende più probabile la presenza di una ereditarietà anche tra razze...

... Although not dispositive, the high within-race heritability of... IQ (50%-90%) makes it plausible that at least some of the Black-White IQ gap is genetically caused. This is especially true because researchers... have yet to find some unique environmental force that suppresses Black intelligence while not affecting White... intelligence...

5.  Ci sono parecchi tratti etnici chiaramente ereditati, molti motivi portano a pensare che anche le facoltà cognitive possano rientrare nel novero delle caratteristiche sottoposte a pressione evolutiva...

... IQ patterns among races also match a suite of life history traits (traits associated with growth, survival, and reproduction)...

6. Normali andamenti statistici (regressione alla media) rendono conto molto bene del dinamismo dell' IQ alla base di molte critiche superficiali all'ipotesi ereditaria...

... Population traits tend to move toward the population (racial) mean from extreme cases. Two high-IQ people tend to have children with lower IQs. The... opposite is also true. Two low-IQ people tend to have children with higher IQs. Multiple studies support hereditarian hypotheses.... When children are matched at 120 IQ, Black siblings average about 100, whereas White siblings average about 110. When children are matched at 70... IQ, Black siblings average about 78, whereas White siblings average about 85....

7. Gli studi sulle adozioni interazziali, ieri una freccia all'arco dei critici, oggi costituiscono un argomento a supporto dell'ipotesi Murray...

... Although adoption studies provide mixed... evidence, the single best study, the Minnesota Transracial adoption study (MTRAS) clearly conforms with a priori hereditarian... predictions. IQ W-W biological parents = 106; W-B biological parents 99; B-B biological parents = 89....

8. La mobilità nel gap intellettivo tra bianchi e neri si registra invariabilmente  in quei subtests dove l'intelligenza pura è meno coinvolta...

...  Race differences are greatest on... tests that are the most g loaded, which are also the most heritable. The Flynn effect manifests on tests that are less g loaded and less... heritable. The Black-White gap on heavily g loaded tests has shrunk less than on more weakly g loaded tests....

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Come concludere?

Insistere su nobili bugie sembra deleterio. L'ipotesi dell'ereditarietà dell'intelligenza è solida, anche se non conclusiva. Diciamo che, vista la mole di prove a supporto, non crederla vera implica come minimo il rigetto immediato di altre ipotesi su cui di solito si ostenta sicumera, come per esempio quella relativa al riscaldamento  globale della terra causato dall'uomo.