lunedì 3 luglio 2017

Matrimonio in crisi (ma solo per poveri e poco istruiti)


Matrimonio in crisi, ma solo per poveri e poco istruiti


Marriage – Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010 by Charles Murray
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Premessa: studiamo il matrimonio immaginando l’ America bianca come una città divisa in due quartieri: Belmont, dove abitano i ricchi e Fishtown, dove abitano i poveri.
Tesi: la crisi dei valori tradizionali colpisce soprattutto Fishtown e contribuisce a scavare un fossato tra i due quartieri.
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… here I describe a decline of marriaga in white America that took different courses for Belmont and Fishtown during the 1980s, and an unprecedented increase in white nonmarital births that has been concentrated in Fishtown and scarcely touched Belmont.
Note:SUNTO
Over the last half century, marriage has become the fault line dividing American classes.
Note:MATRIMONIO E CLASSI
What Whites Said About Marriage
“In general, who do you think is happier,” the Gallup interviewer asked, “the girl who is married and has a family to raise, or the unmarried career girl?” Ninety-six percent of the wives said the married girl with a family was happier. Ninety-three percent said that they did not, in retrospect, wish they had pursued a career instead of getting married. More than half the ever-married women thought that the ideal age for a woman to be married was 20 through 23, with 21 being the most commonly named year. Only 18 percent thought a woman should wait until age 25 or older… In 1960, no-fault divorce did not exist and a speedy divorce was possible only in Nevada. In many states, the only legal grounds for divorce were adultery or cruelty. Even so, 56 percent of the respondents said that divorce should be made more difficult, compared to only 9 percent who thought it should be made easier….
Note:SENTIMENT NEL 1962
The traditional conception of marital roles took a big hit from the 1960s through the 1980s. A substantial class difference remained, however. As of the 2000s, almost 40 percent of Fishtown still took a traditional view of the woman’s role, compared to less than 20 percent of Belmont.
Note:1960-1980: ANCORA UNA FORTE DIFFERENZA DI CLASSE
In the 1970s, large majorities in Fishtown thought that premarital sex was wrong, that the wife should help her husband’s career first, and that young children suffer if the mother works. Among the college-educated people of Belmont, support for all these propositions was much lower.
Note:1970: CLASSI BEN DIFFERENZIATE SUI TEMI DEL MATRIMONIO
By the 2000s, support had dropped everywhere, but most of all in Fishtown, so that there was little remaining difference between Belmont and Fishtown on most of them.
Note:GRANDE CONVERGENZA SU DOPO IL 2000. PESA LA STAGNAZIONE DI BELMONT
growing numbers of people in Belmont agreed that divorce law should make divorce more difficult, almost erasing the gap with Fishtown that had existed in the 1970s.
Note:BELMONT CONTRO I DIVORZI
Belmont became more traditional in its attitude toward married people having sex with someone other than their spouses, as shown in Figure 8.2. I put the estimate for the first half of the 1960s at 80 percent overall, for reasons explained in appendix D.
Note:BELMONT SUL TRADIMENTO
Based on collateral evidence such as the Gallup survey of American women, we have to assume that in the early 1960s Belmont was about as strict in its attitudes as Fishtown. Within just a few years, white college-educated men and women became enthusiastic recruits to the sexual revolution. It is one of the most dramatic and rapid examples of divergence of elite norm and mainstream norms.
Note:RIVOLUZIONE SESSUALE RIVOLUZIONE D’ELITE
By the 2000s, Belmont still was not quite as strict on this point as Fishtown, but college-educated professionals had clearly returned to a more traditional attitude than they had held in the 1970s. While class differences remained in attitudes toward marriage, many of these differences were smaller in 2010 than they had been in the 1970s.
Note:RIFLUSSO SOLO PER LE ÉLITES
What Whites Did About Marriage
The Decline of Marriage
Starting around 1970, marriage took a nosedive that lasted for nearly twenty years. Among all whites ages 30–49, only 13 percent were not living with spouses as of 1970. Twenty years later, that proportion had more than doubled, to 27 percent—a change in a core social institution that has few precedents for magnitude and speed.
Note:LA PICCHIATA DEI MATRIMONI 70-90
By the mid-1980s, the decline had stopped in Belmont, and the trendline remained flat thereafter. Marriage in Fishtown kept falling. The net result: The two neighborhoods, which had been only 11 percentage points apart as late as 1978, were separated by 35 percentage points as of 2010, when only 48 percent of prime-age whites in Fishtown were married, compared to 84 percent in 1960. Furthermore, the slope of the decline in Fishtown after the early 1990s had yet to flatten.
Note:GLI SPOSATI (NO SINGLE, NO DIVORZIATI): DAGLI ANNI 80 DIVERGENZA TREND PRO BELMONT
The Rise of the Never-Marrieds
The stereotypes of the 1970s and 1980s, of yuppies and feminists remaining single into their thirties or forties, had some basis in fact—the percentage of never-married whites in Belmont doubled from 1970 to 1984. But after 1984, that percentage barely rose at all, from 9 percent to 11 percent. The big news is the relentless increase in Fishtown of people who had never married. It showed no signs of decreasing through 2010, when more than one out of four Fishtown whites ages 30–49 had not yet married.
Note:SINGLE: ESPLOSI A FISHTOWN
The Rise of Divorce
In the case of divorce, the trends were similar into the early 1980s. The trendline in Belmont flattened in the early 1980s. In Fishtown, the trendline continued steeply upward, with the slope shallowing only a little in the 2000s. As of 2010, one-third of Fishtown whites ages 30–49 had been divorced.
Note:DIVORZI: ESPLOSI A FISHTOWN
Happy and Not So Happy Marriages
Not only did marriage become much rarer in Fishtown over the half century ending in 2010, the quality of marriages that did exist apparently deteriorated.
Note:QUALITÀ MATRIMONIO DETERIORATA A FISHTOWN
Children and Marriage
the family structure that produces the best outcomes for children, on average, are two biological parents who remain married. Divorced parents produce the next-best outcomes. Whether the parents remarry or remain single while the children are growing up makes little difference. Never-married women produce the worst outcomes. All of these statements apply after controlling for the family’s socioeconomic status.
Note:LA FAMIGLIA MODELLO
Children Living with a Single Divorced or Separated Parent
The trends roughly correspond to the trends in divorce shown earlier. The divergence between Belmont and Fishtown is substantial, with 22 percent of Fishtown children living with a lone divorced or separated parent as of 2010, compared to just 3 percent of Belmont children.
Note:FIGLI CHE VIVONO CON UN GENITORE DIVORZIATO. TREND
Nonmarital Births
From the founding until well into the twentieth century, it was unquestioned that children should be born only within marriage and that failure to maintain that state of affairs would produce catastrophic consequences for society.
Note:IL VERO PROBLEMA: NASCERE FUORI DA UN MATRIMONIO
In the twentieth century, illegitimate supplanted bastard as the favored label for children born out of wedlock, helped along by the imprimatur of one of the first great anthropologists, Bronisław Malinowski. In his 1930 book, Sex, Culture, and Myth, Malinowski concluded that the “principle of legitimacy” amounted to a “universal sociological law.” Every culture, he concluded, had a norm that “no child should be brought into the world without a man—and one man at that—assuming the role of sociological father,
Note:DA BASTARDI A ILLEGITTIMI
In America, white nonmarital births have grown phenomenally over the period 1960–2010.
FENOMENO CHE CRESCE
That information reveals an extraordinarily strong relationship between the mother’s education and the likelihood that she gives birth as an unmarried woman. If she has a college education, she almost never does.
Note:ISTRUZIONE E ILLEGITTIMI
Women with high school educations can be assigned to Belmont because they are married to men with college educations and a Belmont occupation. It seems highly unlikely that this population of women has the same probability of having experienced a nonmarital birth as women with high school educations who remain unmarried or who marry a man with a high school education and a Fishtown occupation.
Note:FISHTOWN FA IL PIENO DI ILLEGITTIMI
Maybe It Isn’t as Bad as It Looks
People with lower levels of education marry at younger ages and have babies at younger ages than people who are busy with school through most of their twenties. If we control for these differences, how different would the results in this chapter look?
Note:FORSE NON È UNA ROTTURA DI VALORI MA UN EFFETTO STATISTICO
The old-fashioned dichotomy between married and unmarried is unrealistic in today’s world, the argument goes. People may cohabit rather than formally marry, but the children are still being raised in a two-parent family, with the advantages of a two-parent family.
Note:LA CONVIVENZA RENDE INUTILE IL DISCRIMINE SPOSATI/NON SPOSATI?
The question then becomes: How do the children of cohabiting parents fare? The answer: About the same as the children of the old-fashioned form of single parenthood, women who are unmarried and not cohabiting.
Note:I BIMBI DEI CONVIVENTI
The mothers in cohabiting couples tended to have lower education, to be younger, to have poorer psychological adjustment, less social support, and less money than the married mothers.
Note:LA MAMMA CONVIVENTE
Having two unmarried biological parents was associated with worse outcomes than having two married biological parents, and the outcomes were rarely better than those for children living with a single parent or in a “cohabiting stepparent” family.
Note:CONFRONTI
Cohabitation with children occurs overwhelmingly in Fishtown.
Note:FISHTOWN FA IL PIENO DI CONVIVENZE
It’s Even Worse Than It Looks
belief that families with children are the core around which American communities must be organized—must, because families with children have always been, and still are, the engine that makes American communities work—and from my conclusion that the family in Fishtown is approaching a point of no return.
Note:PESSIMISMO
Fishtown’s higher divorce rate and much higher nonmarital-birth ratio combined to produce wide divergence from Belmont; this divergence continued to widen at the end of these observations.
Note:CIAO CIAO FISHTOWN
The divergence is so large that it puts the women of Belmont and Fishtown into different family cultures. The absolute level in Fishtown is so low that it calls into question the viability of white working-class communities as a place for socializing the next generation.
CULTURE DIFFERENTI. IL DIVARIO INCOLMABILE.

sabato 1 luglio 2017

De gustibus...

De Gustibus…

Stigler Becker versus Myers Briggs why preference-based explanations are scientifically meaningful and empirically important by Bryan Caplan
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Tesi: Becker e Stigler avevano torto
***
1. Introduction
Economists have long harbored the suspicion that using preferences to explain behavior is tautologous. But Stigler and Becker’s classic “De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum” (1977)… may have been the critical factor that transformed a diffuse suspicion into a professional consensus….
PREFERENZE E TAUTOLOGIE
When they wrote, Stigler and Becker may well have been correct to assert that “no other approach of remotely comparable generality and power is available” 2 (1977, p. 77). But since then, empirical work in personality psychology has been extremely fruitful, reaching a solid consensus on a wide range of topics (Hogan et al., 1997; Piedmont, 1998; McCrae and Costa, 1997a).
ORA TUTTO È CAMBIATO. GLI STUDI SULLA PERSONALITÀ
Empirically, there is fairly strong support for the view that preferences are stable; personality changes are rare, especially after the age of 30 (McCrae and Costa, 1990).
STABILITÁ
However, the view that preferences are identical is very difficult to empirically defend. Rather, personalities differ widely along a handful of basic dimensions (Piedmont, 1998; Costa and McCrae, 1995; Johnson, 1997).
VARIETÀ
2. The explanatory power of preferences
Factor analysis on personality questionnaires— administered on a large scale to diverse populations around the world— typically recovers approximately same five highly reliable factors (Section 3)( Hogan et al., 1997; Costa and McCrae, 1995; McCrae and Costa, 1997b; Piedmont, 1998)… Five factors emerge even when researchers take a highly agnostic approach ex ante by, for instance, sampling over all humanly-applicable adjectives in the dictionary (Piedmont, 1998, pp. 20– 32)….
ANALISI FATTORIALE
Behavioral genetic studies of personality normally find moderate (40– 60 percent) heritabilities for the five personality factors, showing that personality traits have a biological basis (Bergeman et al., 1993; Blum and Noble, 1997; Bouchard and Hur, 1998; Bouchard and McGue, 1990; Jang et al., 1996).
BASI BIOLOGICHE
research on the genetic and environmental contributions to personality make a pure habit-formation account of personality formation difficult to defend. As mentioned above, the big five personality traits are usually found to be moderately heritable (40– 60 percent). To a fair extent, then, people would differ exogenously in temperament even if their “past consumption and personal experiences” were the identical.
L’ESPERIENZA INCIDE POCO
3. Preferences: heterogeneous but stable
3.1. The “big five” personality traits
Enumerating thousands of ways that individuals vary is obviously not particularly helpful for empirical researchers. Much of the value-added of personality research comes from the discovery that the apparently messy universe of human traits can be reduced to a small number of basic dimensions using factor analysis (Piedmont, 1998). Eysenck’s (e.g. Eaves et al., 1989) earlier research along these lines concluded that personality could be reduced to three dimensions: extraversion, neuroticism, and psychoticism. Using less formal techniques, and building on Jung’s speculations, Myers and Briggs argued for a four-dimensional model (Briggs Myers and Myers, 1993; Bouchard and Hur, 1998; McCrae and Costa, 1989; Carlson, 1985)… It classifies respondents according to their location on the extraversion– introversion, sensing– intuition, thinking– feeling and judging– perceiving spectra. Academic personality researchers, however, now generally see a strong preponderance of evidence in favor of the five factor model (FFM), typically assessed using the revised NEO personality inventory, or NEO-PI-R. According to the FFM, there are five fundamental and largely orthogonal personality dimensions, frequently referred to as the “big five”. These are generally called openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism.
I FATTORI PER CLASSIFICARE LE PERSONALITÀ
The big five factors emerge from a wide variety of data sets across gender, race, and national origin (Triadas, 1997; McCrae and Costa, 1997a),
FONTI
3.1.1. Openness to experience
The openness dimension captures receptivity to novel experiences and ideas ( McCrae and Costa, 1997b).
3.1.2. Conscientiousness
CURIOSITA’
Conscientiousness is a measure of motivation and diligence; as Piedmont puts it, “This dimension contrasts dependable, fastidious people with those who are lackadaisical and sloppy” (1998, p. 90).
AUTOCONTROLLO
3.1.3. Extraversion
Extraversion measures a cluster of traits, not just preference for personal interaction, but also activity level and cheerfulness (Watson and Clark, 1997).
VERGOGNA
3.1.4. Agreeableness
Agreeableness captures variation in attitudes towards other people, from compassionate and trusting on the one hand to cold and cynical on the other (Graziano and Eisenberg, 1997).
EMPATIA
3.1.5. Neuroticism
Neuroticism indexes the propensity to experience negative emotions like anxiety, anger, and depression. Persons low in neuroticism rarely experience such feelings, while persons high in neuroticism experience them frequently.
ISTERIA
3.2. Stability
Personality psychologists, in contrast, view the stability of personality over time as an empirical question. But they conclude that it is indeed highly— though not perfectly— stable throughout individuals’ lives.
STABILITÀ DELLE PREFERENZE
4. Some applications of personality to economic questions
4.1. Personality, the return to education and signalling
An enormous literature within economics examines the determinants of labor earnings, but almost never considers personality as a possible independent variable. One interesting possibility to investigate, then, is whether there is any link between job performance and personality and whether this tends to bias familiar coefficient estimates.
CHI GUADAGNA DI PIÙ?
For every occupational category that they consider, conscientiousness invariably predicts better job performance: it “appears to tap traits which are important to the accomplishment of work tasks in all jobs” (Barrick and Mount, 1991, p. 18).
IMPORTANZA DELL’AUTOCONTROLLO
A particularly noteworthy aspect of the conscientiousness— job performance link is that conscientiousness is highly correlated (0.5– 0.6) with various measures of educational achievement but uncorrelated with measured intelligence (Barrick and Mount, 1991, p. 5). Conscientious people are more successful in both school and work.
AUTOCONTROLLO E SCUOLA
4.2. Personality, occupational choice and discrimination
Moving from job performance to occupational choice reveals a still wider scope for personality. The evidence is particularly encyclopedic for the MBTI (Macdaid et al., 1986; Briggs Myers and McCaulley, 1985), but extending these results to the closely related FFM is fairly unproblematic.
GUSTI E SCELTA DEL LAVORO
High openness is strongly over-represented in creative, theoretical fields such as writing, the arts, and pure science, and under-represented in practical, detail-oriented fields such as business, police work and manual labor (Briggs Myers and McCaulley, 1985, pp. 246– 248). High extraversion is over-represented in people-oriented fields like sales and business and under-represented in fields like accounting and library work (Briggs Myers and McCaulley, 1985, pp. 244– 246). High agreeableness is over-represented in “caring” fields like teaching, nursing, religion and counseling, and under-represented in pure science, engineering and law (Briggs et al., 1985, pp. 248– 50).
VARI LINK
The link between personality and occupational choice also raises questions about some forms of alleged occupational discrimination, especially for gender (Filer, 1986). Stereotypes about personality and gender turn out to be fairly accurate: on both Myers– Briggs thinking– feeling and FFM agreeableness, there are large male– female gaps in the expected directions. Women are about half a standard deviation more agreeable than men;
GUSTI E STEREOTIPI
4.3. Conscientiousness and the adverse selection puzzle
Contrary to theoretical predictions, it frequently appears as if low-risk people buy more insurance than high-risk people. In the market for life insurance, for example, consumers buy more when their risk of mortality is less.
CHI COMPRA LE ASSICURAZIONI SULLA VITA?
There could be a personality trait that leads individuals to act cautiously and buy insurance, ceteris paribus. Conscientiousness is a highly plausible candidate for this role, for this factor encompasses attributes such as “thinking carefully before acting”, “scrupulously fulfilling moral obligations”, and being “organized and thorough” (Piedmont, 1998, pp. 90– 91). Individuals low in conscientiousness would seemingly be more likely to, for example, drive recklessly, and start wondering how to cope with an accident after it happens.
GUSTI SPIEGANO TUTTO
4.4. “Pathological” behavior and the tails of the personality distribution
Extreme or “pathological” behavior— from habitual myopia to drug addiction— is often viewed as a challenge for the economic approach, though naturally such charges have not gone unanswered (Becker and Murphy, 1988; O’Donoghue and Rabin, 1999).
PERCHÈ LE CONDOTTE IRRAZIONALI?
Personality researchers have already developed a detailed case that even pronounced psychiatric disorders are frequently nothing more than the tails of familiar continuous personality distributions— not discrete conditions (Morey, 1997; Costa and Widiger, 1994; Costa and McCrae, 1992) The whole range of “addictive” behavior, for instance, can be captured by the trait of neuroticism;
ISTERIE
Personality is also relevant to the large body of anomalies produced by experimental economics (Camerer, 1995; Rabin, 1998). While these experiments definitely show that the average subject behaves in a certain way, they often overlook the possibility that the propensity for anomalous behavior varies.
PREFERENZE E ECONOMIA SPERIMENTALE
The average person considers himself better than average by a variety of measures. But vulnerability to such biases is still far from universal. Robins and John (1997) surprisingly report that “only about 35 percent of the subjects show a clear self-enhancement bias whereas about 50 percent are relatively accurate and about 15 percent actually show self-diminishment bias” (p. 669).
BIAS E PERSONALITÀ. NON SIAMO TUTTI UGUALI
5. Conclusion: toward joint estimation
None of this means that traditional explanations using prices and income are unimportant. But empirical work that excludes measures of personality on principle is almost bound to suffer from omitted variable bias. Attributing all unexplained variation to unspecified preferences, as Stigler and Becker emphasized, systematically overstates the role of preferences. But omitting measures of personality on methodological grounds systematically understates the role of preferences.
SPIEGARE SIA IN TERMINI DI AMBIENTE CHE DI PREFERENZE INTERIORI