mercoledì 13 luglio 2016

5 What Makes a Perfect Parent?

5 What Makes a Perfect Parent?Read more at location 2060
Note: 5@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ COSA CONTA X ANDAR BENE NEI TEST: ESSERE E FARE. TROPPO TARDI X MIGLIORARSI. ACTING WITHE. L ARTE DI VALUTARE I RISCHI. SCHOOL CHOICE. GENI. ADOTTATI Edit
Breast feeding, for example, is the only way to guarantee a healthy and intellectually advanced child—unless bottle feeding is the answer. A baby should always be put to sleep on her back—until it is decreed that she should only be put to sleep on her stomach. Eating liver is either a) toxic or b) imperative for brain development. Spare the rod and spoil the child; spank the child and go to jail.Read more at location 2066
Note: CONTRADDIZIONI Edit
Gary Ezzo, who in the Babywise book series endorses an “infant-management strategy” for moms and dads trying to “achieve excellence in parenting,” stresses how important it is to train a baby, early on, to sleep alone through the night. Otherwise, Ezzo warns, sleep deprivation might “negatively impact an infant’s developing central nervous system” and lead to learning disabilities. Advocates of “co-sleeping,” meanwhile, warn that sleeping alone is harmful to a baby’s psyche and that he should be brought into the “family bed.”Read more at location 2071
Note: CONTRADDIZIONI SUL DORMIRE Edit
What about stimulation? In 1983 T. Berry Brazelton wrote that a baby arrives in the world “beautifully prepared for the role of learning about him-or herself and the world all around.” Brazelton favored early, ardent stimulation—an “interactive” child. One hundred years earlier, however, L. Emmett Holt cautioned that a baby is not a “plaything.” There should be “no forcing, no pressure,Read more at location 2075
Note: CONTRADDIZIONI SUGLI STIMOLI Edit
As Holt explained, a baby should be left to cry for fifteen to thirty minutes a day: “It is the baby’s exercise.”Read more at location 2080
Note: PIANGERE Edit
An expert must be bold if he hopes to alchemize his homespun theory into conventional wisdom. His best chance of doing so is to engage the public’s emotions, for emotion is the enemy of rational argument. And as emotions go, one of them—fearRead more at location 2083
Note: IL MOTORE DELLA PAURA Edit
Fear is in fact a major component of the act of parenting.Read more at location 2088
The problem is that they are often scared of the wrong things. It’s not their fault, really.Read more at location 2090
Note: LA COLPA DEL GENITORE Edit
Consider the parents of an eight-year-old girl named, say, Molly. Her two best friends, Amy and Imani, each live nearby. Molly’s parents know that Amy’s parents keep a gun in their house, so they have forbidden Molly to play there. Instead, Molly spends a lot of time at Imani’s house, which has a swimming pool in the backyard.Read more at location 2094
Note: PISTOLE E PISCINE Edit
But according to the data, their choice isn’t smart at all. In a given year, there is one drowning of a child for every 11,000 residential pools in the United States. (In a country with 6 million pools, this means that roughly 550 children under the age of ten drown each year.) Meanwhile, there is 1 child killed by a gun for every 1 million-plus guns.Read more at location 2097
Note: DATI Edit
The likelihood of death by pool (1 in 11,000) versus death by gun (1 in 1 million-plus) isn’t even close:Read more at location 2100
Note: PROB Edit
But most of us are, like Molly’s parents, terrible risk assessors.Read more at location 2102
Note: NN SAPPIAMO VALUTARE I RISCHI Edit
Sandman offered a comparison between mad-cow disease (a superscary but exceedingly rare threat) and the spread of food-borne pathogens in the average home kitchen (exceedingly common but somehow not very scary).Read more at location 2106
Note: MUCCA PAZZA E CUCINE SPORCHE Edit
“Risks that you control are much less a source of outrage than risks that are out of your control,” Sandman said.Read more at location 2107
Note: TEOREMA DEL CONTROLLO Edit
I can’t tell if my meat has prions in it or not. I can’t see it, I can’t smell it. Whereas dirt in my own kitchen is very much in my own control.Read more at location 2109
Sandman’s “control” principle might also explain why most people are more scared of flying in an airplane than driving a car.Read more at location 2110
Note: MACCHINE E AEREI Edit
It is true that many more people die in the United States each year in motor vehicle accidents (roughly forty thousand) than in airplane crashes (fewer than one thousand). But it’s also true that most people spend a lot more time in cars than in airplanes.Read more at location 2120
Note: PER HOUR DEATH Edit
The per-hour death rate of driving versus flying, however, is about equal.Read more at location 2123
But fear best thrives in the present tense. That is why experts rely on it; in a world that is increasingly impatient with long-term processes, fear is a potent short-term play.Read more at location 2124
Note: LA PAURA È SEMPRE A BREVE Edit
The likelihood of any given person being killed in a terrorist attack is far smaller than the likelihood that the same person will clog up his arteries with fatty food and die of heart disease. But a terrorist attack happens now; death by heart disease is some distant, quiet catastrophe. Terrorist acts lie beyond our control; french fries do not.Read more at location 2127
Note: TERRORISTI E INFARTI. ORA! Edit
Just as important as the control factor is what Peter Sandman calls the dread factor. Death by terrorist attack (or mad-cow disease) is considered wholly dreadful;Read more at location 2130
Note: FATTORE DOLORE Edit
Sandman has reduced his expertise to a tidy equation: Risk = hazard + outrage.Read more at location 2133
Note: L EQUAZIONE SANDER Edit
“When hazard is high and outrage is low, people underreact,” he says. “And when hazard is low and outrage is high, they overreact.”Read more at location 2136
Note: REAZIONE Edit
Swimming pools do not inspire outrage. This is due in part to the familiarity factor. Just as most people spend more time in cars than in airplanes, most of us have a lot more experience swimming in pools than shooting guns.Read more at location 2139
Note: ESPERIENZA Edit
The data show that car seats are, at best, nominally helpful.Read more at location 2145
Note: SEGGIOLINI Edit
But the safety to be gained here is from preventing the kids from riding shotgun, not from strapping them into a $200 car seat.Read more at location 2146
Theirs is a gesture of love, surely, but also a gesture of what might be called obsessive parenting.Read more at location 2148
Note: OBSESSIVE PARENTING Edit
Compare the four hundred lives that a few swimming pool precautions might save to the number of lives saved by far noisier crusades: child-resistant packaging (an estimated fifty lives a year), flame-retardant pajamas (ten lives), keeping children away from airbags in cars (fewer than five young children a year have been killed by airbags since their introduction), and safety drawstrings on children’s clothing (two lives).Read more at location 2152
Note: PISCINE E ALTRO Edit
Clearly, bad parenting matters a great deal. As the link between abortion and crime makes clear, unwanted children—who are disproportionately subject to neglect and abuse—have worse outcomes than children who were eagerly welcomed by their parents.Read more at location 2161
Note: ABORTO DELINQUENZA E CATTIVI GENITORI Edit
A long line of studies, including research into twins who were separated at birth, had already concluded that genes alone are responsible for perhaps 50 percent of a child’s personality and abilities.Read more at location 2164
Note: 50% GENI Edit
These nature-nurture discrepancies were addressed in a 1998 book by a little-known textbook author named Judith Rich Harris. The Nurture Assumption was in effect an attack on obsessive parenting, a book so provocative that it required two subtitles: Why Children Turn Out the Way They Do and Parents Matter Less than You Think and Peers Matter More.Read more at location 2172
Note: HARRIS Edit
Harris argued that the top-down influence of parents is overwhelmed by the grassroots effect of peer pressure,Read more at location 2176
Note: LA FORZA DEI PARI Edit
But Harris’s theory was duly endorsed by a slate of heavyweights. Among them was Steven Pinker, the cognitive psychologistRead more at location 2181
Note: APPOGGI Edit
Or will they? Parents must matter, you tell yourself. Besides, even if peers exert so much influence on a child, isn’t it the parents who essentially choose a child’s peers? Isn’t that why parents agonize over the right neighborhood, the right school, the right circle of friends?Read more at location 2187
Note: INFLUENZA INDIRETTA Edit
In determining a parent’s influence, which dimension of the child are we measuring: his personality? his school grades? his moral behavior? his creative abilities? his salary as an adult?Read more at location 2190
Note: SPECIFICARE LA PERFORMANCE Edit
Certain facets of a child’s outcome—personality, for instance, or creativity—are not easily measured by data. But school performance is.Read more at location 2212
Note: SCHOOL PERFORMANCE Edit
These data concern school choice, an issue that most people feel strongly about in one direction or another. True believers of school choice argue that their tax dollars buy them the right to send their children to the best school possible. Critics worry that school choice will leave behind the worst students in the worst schools. Still, just about every parent seems to believe that her child will thrive if only he can attend the right school,Read more at location 2214
Note: SCHOOL CHOICE Edit
School choice came early to the Chicago Public School system. That’s because the CPS, like most urban school districts, had a disproportionate number of minority students.Read more at location 2219
Note: CFR PUBBLICO PRIVATO Edit
It was decreed that incoming freshmen could apply to virtually any high school in the district.Read more at location 2222
Note: CHICAGO Edit
In the interest of fairness, the CPS resorted to a lottery. For a researcher, this is a remarkable boon.Read more at location 2230
Note: LOTTERIA ISCRIZIONI Edit
The result is a natural experiment on a grand scale.Read more at location 2234
the lottery offers a wonderful means of measuring just how much school choice—or, really, a better school—truly matters.Read more at location 2235
Note: QUANTO CONTA LA SCUOLA? Edit
The answer will not be heartening to obsessive parents: in this case, school choice barely mattered at all.Read more at location 2237
Note: LA SCUOLA NN CONTA. ALMENO ALLE SUPERIORI Edit
That is, a student who opted out of his neighborhood school was more likely to graduate whether or not he actually won the opportunity to go to a new school.Read more at location 2241
Note: SELECTIVE BIAS Edit
students—and parents—who choose to opt out tend to be smarter and more academically motivated to begin with.Read more at location 2243
Note: ALLE PRIVATE I PIÙ MOTIVATI Edit
There was, however, one group of students in Chicago who did see a dramatic change: those who entered a technical school or career academy.Read more at location 2246
Note: LE PROFESSIONALI Edit
practical skills.Read more at location 2249
the black-white income gap is largely a product of a black-white education gap that could have been observed many years earlier.Read more at location 2257
Note: ALLE SUPERIORI È TARDI Edit
In a paper called “The Economics of ‘Acting White,’” the young black Harvard economist Roland G. Fryer Jr. argues that some black students “have tremendous disincentives to invest in particular behaviors (i.e., education, ballet, etc.)Read more at location 2262
Note: ACTING WHITE Edit
Fryer cites the recollections of a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, known then as Lew Alcindor, who had just entered the fourth grade in a new school and discovered that he was a better reader than even the seventh graders: “When the kids found this out, I became a target….ItRead more at location 2266
Note: JABBAR Edit
does having a lot of books in your home lead your child to do well in school?Read more at location 2304
Note: AVERE TANTI LIBRI Edit
The ECLS data do show, for instance, that a child with a lot of books in his home tends to test higher than a child with no books.Read more at location 2309
Note: ESITO Edit
Perhaps the number of books in a child’s home merely indicates how much money his parents make.Read more at location 2312
Note: CAUSA CORELAZIONE Edit
The data reveal that black children who perform poorly in school do so not because they are black but because a black child is more likely to come from a low-income, low-education household.Read more at location 2326
Note: NERO POVERO E POCO ISTRUITO Edit
even when the parents’ income and education are controlled for, the black-white gap reappears within just two years of a child’s entering school.Read more at location 2331
Note: IL GAP RIAPPARE CONTROLLANDO POVERTÀ ED ISTRUzione Edit
Why does this happen? That’s a hard, complicated question. But one answer may lie in the fact that the school attended by the typical black child is not the same school attended by the typical white child, and the typical black child goes to a school that is simply…bad.Read more at location 2333
Note: SCUOLE PEGGIORI? Edit
The typical white child in the ECLS study attends a school that is only 6 percent black; the typical black child, meanwhile, attends a school that is about 60 percent black.Read more at location 2337
Note: DENSITÀ NERA Edit
Just how are the black schools bad? Not, interestingly, in the ways that schools are traditionally measured. In terms of class size, teachers’ education, and computer-to-student ratio, the schools attended by blacks and whites are similar. But the typical black student’s school has a far higher rate of troublesome indicators, such as gang problems, nonstudents loitering in front of the school, and lack of PTA funding.Read more at location 2339
Note: GANG Edit
White children in these schools also perform poorly. In fact, there is essentially no black-white test score gap within a bad schoolRead more at location 2343
Note: ACTING WITHE X I BIANCHI Edit
Here now are the eight factors that are strongly correlated with test scores:          The child has highly educated parents.        The child’s parents have high socioeconomic status.        The child’s mother was thirty or older at the time of her first child’s birth.        The child had low birthweight.        The child’s parents speak English in the home.        The child is adopted.        The child’s parents are involved in the PTA.        The child has many books in his home.          And the eight that aren’t:          The child’s family is intact.        The child’s parents recently moved into a better neighborhood.        The child’s mother didn’t work between birth and kindergarten.        The child attended Head Start.        The child’s parents regularly take him to museums.        The child is regularly spanked.        The child frequently watches television.        The child’s parents read to him nearly every day.Read more at location 2380
Note: COSA RILEVA Edit
Matters: The child has highly educated parents.        Doesn’t: The child’s family is intact.Read more at location 2402
Note: PRIMA COPPIA Edit
A family with a lot of schooling tends to value schooling. Perhaps more important, parents with higher IQs tend to get more education, and IQ is strongly hereditary. ButRead more at location 2405
Note: SPIEGA Edit
Matters: The child’s parents have high socioeconomic status.        Doesn’t: The child’s parents recently moved into a better neighborhood.Read more at location 2410
Note: RICCHEZZA Edit
Socioeconomic status is a strong indicator of success in general—it suggests a higher IQ and more education—and successful parents are more likely to have successful children.Read more at location 2413
Note: EREDITARIETÀ E PRETESE Edit
Matters: The child’s mother was thirty or older at the time of her first child’s birth.        Doesn’t: The child’s mother didn’t work between birth and kindergarten.Read more at location 2418
Note: ASILO Edit
This mother tends to be a woman who wanted to get some advanced education or develop traction in her career. She is also likely to want a child more than a teenage mother wants a child.Read more at location 2421
Matters: The child had low birthweight.        Doesn’t: The child attended Head Start.Read more at location 2428
Note: PESO PRESCHOOL Edit
low birthweight is a strong forecaster of poor parenting, since a mother who smokes or drinks or otherwise mistreats her baby in utero isn’t likely to turn things around just because the baby is born.Read more at location 2432
Note: PREMATURI ALCOL E SIGARETTE Edit
Head Start, the federal preschool program.Read more at location 2434
Matters: The child’s parents speak English in the home.        Doesn’t: The child’s parents regularly take him to museums.Read more at location 2441
Note: MUSEI Edit
Matters: The child is adopted.        Doesn’t: The child is regularly spanked.Read more at location 2449
Note: BOTTE E ADOTTATI Edit
far more influenced by the IQs of his biological parents than the IQs of his adoptive parents,Read more at location 2452
Note: IQ DEL GENITORE Edit
But if an adopted child is prone to lower test scores, a spanked child is not. This may seem surprising—not because spanking itself is necessarily detrimental but because, conventionally speaking, spanking is considered an unenlightened practice. We might therefore assume that parents who spank are unenlightened in other ways. Perhaps that isn’t the case at all. Or perhaps there is a different spanking story to be told. Remember, the ECLS survey included direct interviews with the children’s parents. So a parent would have to sit knee to knee with a government researcher and admit to spanking his child. This would suggest that a parent who does so is either unenlightened or—more interestingly—congenitally honest. It may be that honesty is more important to good parenting than spanking is to bad parenting.Read more at location 2457
Note: BOTTE ONESTE Edit
Matters: The child’s parents are involved in the PTA.        Doesn’t: The child frequently watches television.Read more at location 2464
Note: TELEVISIONI Edit
The ECLS data show no correlation, meanwhile, between a child’s test scores and the amount of television he watches. Despite the conventional wisdom, watching television apparently does not turn a child’s brain to mush. (In Finland, whose education system has been ranked the world’s best, most children do not begin school until age seven but have often learned to read on their own by watching American television with Finnish subtitles.)Read more at location 2468
Note: TV IN FINLANDIA Edit
Matters: The child has many books in his home.        Doesn’t: The child’s parents read to him nearly every day.Read more at location 2474
Note: LIBRI E FAVOLE Edit
To overgeneralize a bit, the first list describes things that parents are; the second list describes things that parents do.Read more at location 2522
Note: ESSERE E FARE Edit
Parents who are well educated, successful, and healthy tend to have children who test well in school; but it doesn’t seem to much matter whether a child is trotted off to museums or spanked or sent to Head Start or frequently read to or plopped in front of the television.Read more at location 2524
But this is not to say that parents don’t matter. Plainly they matter a great deal. Here is the conundrum: by the time most people pick up a parenting book, it is far too late.Read more at location 2527
Note: TROPPO TARDI! Edit
In this regard, an overbearing parent is a lot like a political candidate who believes that money wins elections—Read more at location 2532
Note: IL DENARO NN SERVE Edit
Sacerdote found that parents who adopt children are typically smarter, better educated, and more highly paid than the baby’s biological parents. But the adoptive parents’ advantages had little bearing on the child’s school performance.Read more at location 2536
Note: SACERDOTE Edit
Compared to similar children who were not put up for adoption, the adoptees were far more likely to attend college, to have a well-paid job, and to wait until they were out of their teens before getting married.Read more at location 2541
Note: ADOTTATI E NN ADOTTATI Edit

Uniformità e check and balance

It’s funny how Montesquieu never thought that this “division of power” wouldn’t work if those in power all went to the same schools and married each other.

Is Belief In the Moral Parity Thesis Dangerous?

  • Suppose that I come to believe, stupidly, that taking caffeine is dangerous. I announce henceforth that I will lock any people I catch drinking coffee in my basement for 30 days as a punishment. I see you walking out of Starbucks and try to grab you. You fight back, and, in the struggle, injure or kill me. What you did was permissible self-defense.
  • The “Moral Parity Thesis”holds that nothing magic happens if the would-be kidnapper is a cop rather than a private civilian.
  • Given that cops are armed and dangerous, it may not be strategic to do so, but morally, it’s permissible.
  • One putative objection to the Moral Parity Thesis is that it is dangerous, because people will misapply it.
  • This objection is closely related to a mistaken objection I was discussing this point with a law professor a few years ago, when the professor said, “So you think people may break unjust laws?”“Sure,”I responded, “And indeed I hope they do, if they can get away with it.”
  • LA DIFFERENZAI’m saying that some laws are in fact unjust—that there’s an independent moral truth about whether laws are just or not. When the law is in fact unjust, then there is no duty to obey it. That’s not the same thing as saying that you can break any law because you believe it’s unjust.”
  • TUTTE LE TEORIEthat’s a problem for every theory. Every moral theory says something like, ‘Under conditions A you must do X; under conditions B you must not do Y; etc.’The theories don’t say ‘Do X when you judge you’re in A’—
  • CONCLUSIONEThe fact that most people would botch applying a theory does not show that the theory is wrong.
  • ES UTILITARISMO So, for instance, suppose— as is often argued— that most people would misapply utilitarian moral standards. Perhaps applying utilitarianism is too hard for the common person. Even if so, this does not invalidate utilitarianism.
  • DRONI For instance, since our best evidence indicates that about 90% of drones strikes kill innocent people, a person might feel free to shoot down any drone she sees.
  • PROBABILITÀ Suppose A) I turn the corner and see a police office beating someone with a baton. Suppose in another scenario, B) I turn the corner and see an ordinary man beating another man with a bat. Now, it’s statistically more likely that cases like B are instances of injustice than cases like A—it’s more likely that a police officer beating a person is justified in doing so than a random person.
  • AL CONTRARIO All that said, I wonder if this objection mostly has the problem backwards.it seems more plausible that citizens are more likely to engage in wrongful obedience than they are to engage in wrongful resistance. Consider: Many experiments show that we are biased to conform our opinion to that of the majority (or that of whatever group we want to be part of), even when it is irrational to do so. consider the Milgram experiment.
  • RESISTENZA VS OBBEDIENZA These are just two major experiments, of course. But in general, it seems that psychology shows that citizens tend to err on the side of wrongful obedience rather than the side on wrongful resistance.
  • CONCLUSIONE. Thus, to whatever extent these epistemic concerns push against my view, they push even harder against the other side.

Il paradosso della libertà

Uno dei tanti.
C’è chi come i cattolici difende la libertà attraverso le tautologie: non c’è libertà senza verità, chi conosce la verità fa la cosa giusta, l’uomo libero fa la cosa giusta. Quindi: la libertà è buona.
C’è chi come i libertari difende la libertà come valore: ho diritto a fare cio’ che voglio perché sono libero.
Gli altri difendono la libertà come mezzo: la libertà responsabilizza, la libertà dà buoni incentivi ma soprattutto la libertà risolve il problema della conoscenza.
La libertà risolve il problema della conoscenza? Ma sì! La libertà è essenzialmente libertà di sperimentare soluzioni alternative e noi conosciamo grazie agli esperimenti (ce lo insegna la scienza): più esperimenti ci sono meglio è; più un esperimento ha successo, più persone seguiranno quella via.
Varie soluzioni competono tra loro facendo emergere informazioni nascoste. Così come la biodiversità fa bene alla natura, la diversità sociale fa bene alla convivenza.
Un paradosso fa capolinea. Lo esprimo attraverso un tipico esempio: la prostituzione deve essere legalizzata?
Un libertario non avrebbe dubbi ma chi vede la “libertà come mezzo” penserà: lasciamo che le comunità locali provino soluzioni alternative e impariamo dalle reciproche esperienze.
Insomma, un liberale di tal fatta desidera vedere sia società dove la prostituzione è legale che società dove è bandita. Ma nel tollerare le seconde l’amante della libertà tollera la coercizione delle persone! Come puo’ tessere il panegirico della libertà chi tollera la coercizione?
L’imbarazzo liberale deriva dal fatto che in realtà il principio “libertà per tutti” impedisce di sperimentare soluzioni alternative.
Vale la pena far notare che “il paradosso della libertà” non è altro che “il paradosso della scienza” sotto mentite spoglie: quante volte sui social veri o presunti esperti (per lo più medici) ci vengono a dire che “un certo comportamento non ha basi scientifiche”. Si fanno ambasciatori del messaggio scientifico ed esordiscono con un lapidario: “la scienza dice che…”. Ma se la scienza dice qualcosa è “sperimentate senza fine, più sperimentate più saprete”. Ebbene, se la scienza si giova di qualcosa è della sperimentazione volontaria di comportamenti che il “luminare” sentenzia come anti-scientifici. Nel suo “la scienza dice….” è implicito un “basta sperimentare su questo punto…”, ovvero il messaggio anti-scientifico per eccellenza. Un bel paradosso.
liberty
Due libri costruiti su questo paradosso:
Rationalism, Pluralism and Freedom di Jacob Levy.

Greg Mankiw's Blog: A Quick Note on a Universal Basic Income

Greg Mankiw's Blog: A Quick Note on a Universal Basic Income: "Consider an economy in which average income is $50,000 but with much income inequality. To provide a social safety net, two possible policies are proposed.

A.  A universal transfer of $10,000 to every person, financed by a 20-percent flat tax on income.

B.  A means-tested transfer of $10,000.  The full amount goes to someone without any income.  The transfer is then phased out: You lose 20 cents of it for every dollar of income you earn.  These transfers are financed by a tax of 20 percent on income above $50,000.
 Which would you prefer?

I have seen smart people argue as follows: Policy A is crazy. Why should Bill Gates get a government transfer? He doesn’t need it, and we would need to raise taxes more to pay for it.  Policy B is more progressive. It targets the transfer to those who really need it, and the transfer is financed by a smaller tax increase levied only on those with above-average incomes.
But here is the rub: The two policies are equivalent.  If you look at the net payment (taxes less transfer), everyone is exactly the same under the two plans. The difference is only a matter of framing."



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martedì 12 luglio 2016

Specialisation bias

SPECIAL: "Disclosure can also cause perverse effects even when biases are unavoidable. For example, surgeons are more likely to recommend surgery than non-surgeons. Radiation-oncologists recommend radiation more than other physicians. This is known as specialty bias. Perhaps in an attempt to be transparent, some doctors spontaneously disclose their specialty bias. That is, surgeons may inform their patients that as surgeons, they are biased toward recommending surgery.

My latest research, published last month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, reveals that patients with localized prostate cancer (a condition that has multiple effective treatment options) who heard their surgeon disclose his or her specialty bias were nearly three times more likely to have surgery than those patients who did not hear their surgeon reveal such a bias. Rather than discounting the surgeon’s recommendation, patients reported increased trust in physicians who disclosed their specialty bias.

Remarkably, I found that surgeons who disclosed their bias also behaved differently. They were more biased, not less. These surgeons gave stronger recommendations to have surgery, perhaps in an attempt to overcome any potential discounting they feared their patient would make on the recommendation as a result of the disclosure.

Surgeons also gave stronger recommendations to have surgery if they discussed the opportunity for the patient to meet with a radiation oncologist. This aligns with my previous research from randomized experiments, which showed that primary advisers gave more biased advice and felt it was more ethical to do so when they knew that their advisee might seek a second opinion."



'via Blog this'

lunedì 11 luglio 2016

Una difesa della militanza

la retorica buoni cattivi e le etichette stereotipate sono un male o un bene. alcuni affermano che pensare in quei termini abbassa il vs IQ



 There are obviously many labels and many good-versus-evil stories that drain your effective IQ.  Think Leninist,  creationist, or astrologer.  But it is equally obvious that many labels and many good-versus-evil stories boost your effective IQ.  Think behavioral economist, Darwinian, or astronomer.  ("And yet it moves.")  Will and Tyler act as if these differences don't exist.


Yes, it's better to suspend judgment rather than embrace error.  But intellectual progress only occurs after someone discovers and publicizes good reasons to adopt an ism


Tyler's implicit good-versus-evil story is "the never-ending war between the good people who don't believe in good-versus-evil stories and the evil people who do."





Do Labels and Good-versus-Evil Stories Drain IQ?, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty: "Why am I so inclined to defend labels and good-versus-evil stories?  Because when I review my life's work, I realize that I owe my life's work to my labels and stories.  You don't have to be a libertarian to appreciate The Myth of the Rational Voter, but without my libertarian goggles I would never have conceived the project.  The same goes for virtually everything I've written.  You might point to something like "Why I Am Not an Austrian Economist" as a counter-example, but you shouldn't.  I couldn't have written that piece if I weren't a lapsed Austrian, and wouldn't have written it if I didn't have a superior alternative (and label) to offer.
"







'via Blog this'

Credo o conosco? Questo è il problema...

Io credo che…
Io so che…
C’è differenza tra le due espressioni?
Oggi sappiamo di no ma a lungo non è stato così.
Si pensava che “conoscere” fosse qualcosa di differente rispetto al fatto di “avere una credenza”.
“Conoscere” era tipico del pensiero scientifico, “credere” di quello religioso (ma non solo).
Sarà per questo (l’eterna guerra scienza-fede) che bel bar-facebook la distinzione viene continuamente riproposta come se il problema non fosse stato già risolto dichiarando impossibile una simile distinzione.
Oggi infatti sappiamo che tutti i saperi concreti sono di natura probabilistica e che la probabilità ha una radice soggettiva ineliminabile.
Ai tempi in cui si riteneva possibile una demarcazione si diceva che la conoscenza (per esempio quella scientifica) era una “credenza giustificata”. Oggi invece sappiamo che esistono “credenze giustificate” che non costituiscono conoscenza, il che fa crollare ogni velleità a distinguere.
Al crollo contribuì in modo decisivo la spallata di Edmund Gietter concretizzatasi in un articolo di poche pagine. Non so se sia più inquietante o rassicurante sapere che una diatriba millenaria sia stata risolta da un articoletto di poche pagine. Comunque  è stato così: dopo aver letto quelle pagine praticamente tutti sono rimasti convinti delle sue tesi cessando ogni approfondimento.
26369_edmund_gettier
Ecco cosa faceva presente Gettier: 
Immaginiamo che Smith nutra una forte credenza nei confronti della proposizione f (riferita al suo amico Jones), dove f = Jones possiede una Ford nuova di zecca.

Smith ha inoltre solide giustificazioni per alimentare la sua credenza: Jones, per esempio, ha sempre posseduto una Ford in passato e ha più volte espresso la sua passione per le Ford, nonché l’intenzione di ricomprarne un’altra. Inoltre, Smith ha visto Jones proprio oggi girare con una Ford nuova fiammante. guarda caso dopo che qualche giorno fa ha rottamato la sua vecchia auto.
In realtà – noi sappiamo - la Ford con cui gira Jones è presa a noleggio, non è sua anche se non si puo’ negare che sia nuova fiammante.
Tuttavia, piccolo particolare, proprio l’ altra settimana Jones ha vinto una Ford nuova fiammante alla lotteria, che al momento, però, è dal meccanico per un’ ultima revisione in attesa del varo.
A partire da queste premesse, si viene a creare una situazione di questo tipo circa f:
1) f è vera;
2) f è giustificata;
3) Smith afferma f (credenza vera e giustificata) senza conoscerne il contenuto.
L'esperimento mentale mostra quindi che la definizione di conoscenza come credenza vera e giustificata sia come minimo incompleta.
Sembra cruciale “conoscere” anche le giustificazioni di una credenza ma così si crea un regresso infinito, come mostra facilmente Gettier.
Alla fine, per evitare il regresso, bisogna concludere che sia la CREDENZA che la CONOSCENZA si fondano sull’ evidenza e tra i due atti non esiste una differenza epistemologica di rilievo.
Ecco, meglio ricordarlo a chi in modo facilone dà per scontata la divisione tra sapere scientifico e sapere religioso.