Cosa rende tollerabili le democrazie?

La teoria ci dice che il sistema di governo democratico non puo’ funzionare.

Lo avevano capito già gli antichi annoverandolo tra le sciagure che colpiscono l’uomo. Non ci voleva poi molto: quando il motore delle decisioni è un individuo ignorante e stupido non si va lontano (link, link).

Eppure, da un punto di vista pratico, i regimi democratici, diversamente dagli altri, vengono sopportati bene. Perché? A cosa devono la loro longevità?

Cerca di dipanare la matassa Bryan Caplan nel saggio “Why Is Democracy Tolerable?”

Cosa rende tollerabili le democrazie, allora? In poche parole: il fatto che molto spesso non siano affatto democrazie. Il fatto che nel concreto a decidere siano le lobby, i ricchi e le élite, ovvero soggetti più consapevoli e razionali dell’elettore mediano.

L’analisi prende il suo abbrivio da un famoso libro di Martin Gilens…

… Martin Gilens' Affluence and Influence argues that when America's rich disagree with their fellow citizens, American democracy heeds the rich…

Il fatto che l’opinione dei ricchi predomini offre una spiegazione del perché le democrazie funzionino meglio di quanto predice la teoria di cui ai link, anche se il populista non sarà contento di apprendere che la maggioranza non governi affatto…

… They certainly constitute troubling news for advocates of "populistic" democracy…

La scoperta di Gilens è preziosa anche per l’evangelizzatore: se si vogliono cambiare le cose è al centro che bisogna agire, non in periferia. E’ l’élite e i ricchi che bisogna convincere: gli altri seguiranno come pecore mansuete. Con buona pace di Papa Francesco e del suo consiglio di privilegiare le periferie...

… Rather than renew debates about the rationality and selfishness of the American voter (no on both counts, but who's counting?), let's ponder a new question: What does Gilens' research imply for political activism?… The pragmatic response, then, is to tailor activism to Gilens' realities… contrary to appearances, Gilens' analysis doesn't imply that activism is futile. The correct inference to draw, rather, is that effective activism must convert the rich…

Da notare che i ricchi non tutelano specificatamente i loro interessi, nessun elettore lo fa. Anzi, spesso l’opinione dei ricchi tutela politiche a vantaggio dei poveri…

… Gilens doesn't say that American democracy is heavily biased in favor of the interests of the rich; he says that it's heavily biased in favor of the opinions of the rich. In fact, the opinions of the rich only sporadically differ from the general population's, which is why sophisticated statistics are required to detect the rich's oversize influence… His claim is not that American democracy primarily benefits the rich, but that it primarily listens to the rich…

Per parlare al “centro” bisogna essere istruiti e razionali poiché i ricchi mediamente sono più istruiti e razionali…

… figure out how to communicate effectively with the plutocracy. Since income and education are highly correlated, you'll want to tailor your rhetoric to both economic and educational elites…

Quando i ricchi si sono convinti del matrimonio gay, il matrimonio gay è più o meno passato ovunque (mentre qualcuno si dedicava a catechizzare la massa ininfluente).

… Anyone who can convert two successive generations of young elites can move policy mountains. See gay marriage…

Ora, lo stesso sta accadendo con l’immigrazione: l’élite sta per essere convertita che la libera immigrazione è cosa buona, mentre qualcuno perde tempo spaventando le masse e ritardando la loro capitolazione…

… The principled case for open borders is already making young elites wonder if mandatory discrimination against foreigners has a moral leg to stand on…

L’elettore mediano non sarà un nazista pericoloso, di certo è uno statalista convinto: mettersi nelle sue mani sarebbe un guaio…

… The median American is no Nazi, but he is a moderate national socialist… Gilens, like all well-informed political scientists, knows that self-interest has little effect on public opinion… So when do the poor, middle class, and rich diverge? On distributional issues, there is high consensus. But the rich are noticeably less statist on both economic and social policy. Rich and poor alike favor raising the minimum wage, but the support of the poor is nearly unanimous. The poor are slightly more in favor of extending unemployment benefits. They're much more anti-gay… They're much less opposed to restricting free speech to fight terrorism…

La persona più istruita, e quindi anche più ricca, è liberista in economia e libertaria nella società. Il che spesso è un toccasana visto le tendenze autoritarie e paternaliste dell’elettore mediano… 

… Democracies listen to the relatively libertarian rich far more than they listen to the absolutely statist non-rich. And since I think that statist policy preferences rest on a long list of empirical and normative mistakes, my sincere reaction is to say, "Thank goodness."…

Queste osservazioni ci istruiscono anche sulla concessione della cittadinanza agli immigrati: ok per i poveri, ma per i benestanti?

… granting citizenship to even staunchly statist immigrants is almost politically harmless... unless they're rich… Slogan: The immigrants to fear aren't Mexican laborers, but French professors…

 

Le ragioni del terzomondismo

Il motto del terzomondista è "loro sono poveri perchè noi siamo ricchi", dacchè segue condanna del nostro modello "sfruttatore".

In realtà il modello di economia liberale arricchisce tutti sul lungo periodo, ciò non toglie che nella storia l'Occidente abbia in molte occasioni sfruttato i paesi poveri con ripercussioni severe per il loro sviluppo successivo, ma questo perché sono stati esclusi dal mercato, non perché ne sono stati vittime. 

Un vivido resoconto delle nostre colpe si ha leggendo REVERSING DEVELOPMENT SPICE AND GENOCIDE di Daron Acemoglu e James A. Robinson che partono con il caso emblematico delle isole Molucche nel sud-est asiatico...

... the Moluccas were then central to world trade as the only producers of the valuable spices cloves, mace, and nutmeg. Of these, nutmeg and mace grew only in the Banda Islands. Inhabitants of these islands produced and exported these rare spices in exchange for food and manufactured goods coming from the island of Java, from the entrepôt of Melaka on the Malaysian Peninsula, and from India, China, and Arabia...

Poi arrivarono i portoghesi per commerciare le spezie: in precedenza venivano spedite dal Medio Oriente e dalla Turchia. Il primo a doppiare il Capo di Buona Speranza fu Bartolomeo Diaz nel 1488, a seguire Vasco de Gama giunse nelle Indie dieci anni dopo.

I portoghesi presero Melaka  nel 1511, ora gli europei avevano la loro via autonoma per le spezie. Ecco la testimonianza del mercante Tomé Pires...

.... "The trade and commerce between the different nations for a thousand leagues on every hand must come to Melaka . . . Whoever is lord of Melaka has his hands at the throat of Venice"...

Il tentativo di stabilire un monopolio fallì per la vitalità della concorrenza locale...

... City-states such as Aceh, Banten, Melaka, Makassar, Pegu, and Brunei expanded rapidly, producing and exporting spices along with other products such as hardwoods...

Ma la musica cambiò con l' arrivo degli olandesi nel 1600 che operarono facendosi firmare delle esclusive, era il metodo abituale della Compagnie delle Indie Olandesi...

... It was also the second company that had its own army and the power to wage war and colonize foreign lands. With the military power of the company now brought to bear, the Dutch proceeded to eliminate all potential interlopers to enforce their treaty with the ruler of Ambon. They captured a key fort held by the Portuguese in 1605 and forcibly removed all other traders...

Nelle Molucche, il metodo dell'esclusiva trovò facile applicazione ad Ambon, dove c'era un capo assoluto con il controllo del territorio. Ma nell'arcipelago delle isole Banda la situazione politica era frammentata e non esisteva un interlocutore designato...

... The Dutch also took control of the Banda Islands, intending this time to monopolize mace and nutmeg. But the Banda Islands were organized very differently from Ambon. They were made up of many small autonomous city-states, and there was no hierarchical social or political structure. These small states, in reality no more than small towns, were run by village meetings of citizens. There was no central authority whom the Dutch could coerce into signing a monopoly... At first this meant that the Dutch had to compete with English, Portuguese, Indian, and Chinese merchants...

A fronte del fallimento, Jan Pieterszoon Coen - governatore di Batavia - tentò un piano alternativo: il massacro e la deportazione della popolazione in modo che rimanesse disponibile solo una forza di schiavi....

... In 1621 he sailed to Banda with a fleet and proceeded to massacre almost the entire population of the islands, probably about fifteen thousand people. All their leaders were executed along with the rest, and only a few were left alive, enough to preserve the know-how necessary for mace and nutmeg production. After this genocide was complete, Coen then proceeded to create the political and economic structure necessary for his plan: a plantation society...

Quindicimila vittime. La tabula rasa riguardò anche le sofisticate istituzioni, fu una condanna al sottosviluppo della regione. La successiva produzione di spezie di fatto collassò del 60%.

Ma gli olandesi si reputarono soddisfatti ed esportarono la strategia della "soluzione finale" anche ad altre regioni del sud-est asiatico. La costante espansione commerciale di questi stati fu stroncata e molti di loro per non subire le "attenzioni" degli olandesi abbandonarono o ridussero le loro culture: l'autoarchia era più sicura.

A Baenten, sull'isola di Java, per esempio, si tagliarono in massa le piante del pepe.

Testimonianza di un mercante olandese nelle filippine:

… “Nutmeg and cloves can be grown here, just as in Malaku. They are not there now because the old Raja had all of them ruined before his death. He was afraid the Dutch Company would come to fight with them about it.”…

Altre piaghe: de-urbanizzazione e declino della popolazione.

Tanto per dire: la capitale della Birmania fu trasferita dalla costa all’entroterra.

Insomma, la colonizzazione olandese fu disastrosa per il sud est asiatico…

… The people in Southeast Asia stopped trading, turned inward, and became more absolutist…

In queste condizioni è facile capire che nessuno di questi popoli trasse vantaggio dalle innovazioni della rivoluzione industriale…

… In Southeast Asia the spread of European naval and commercial power in the early modern period curtailed a promising period of economic expansion and institutional change…

Intanto in Africa si verificava un fenomeno molto differente legato alla tratta degli schiavi.

Negli USA ci si riferiva alla schiavitù come all’ “istituzione peculiare” ma lo storico Moses Finland ci rende edotti del fatto che la schiavitù non è affatto “peculiare” ma è presente in tutte le società umane: era endemica già nell’antica Roma che si procurava i suoi schiavi dalle regioni slave e nordiche.

Nel 1400 gli europei smisero di schiavizzarsi a vicenda ma l’Africa non conobbe il passaggio dalla schiavitù al servaggio, il commercio degli schiavi, specie verso la penisola araba, rimase molto fiorente…

… medieval West African states of Mali, Ghana, and Songhai made heavy use of slaves… adopting organizational models from the Muslim North African…

Nel ‘700 le colonie caraibiche cominciarono la coltivazione della canna da zucchero che richiedeva molta manodopera non specializzata. Cominciò il traffico internazionale di schiavi e l’Africa, da sempre in prima linea in questi commerci, fu subissata di richieste alle quali cercò di rispondere. Qualche numero:

… In the sixteenth century, probably about 300,000 slaves were traded in the Atlantic. They came mostly from Central Africa, with heavy involvement of Kongo and the Portuguese based farther south in Luanda, now the capital of Angola. During this time, the trans-Saharan slave trade was still larger, with probably about 550,000 Africans moving north as slaves. In the seventeenth century, the situation reversed. About 1,350,000 Africans were sold as slaves in the Atlantic trade, the majority now being shipped to the Americas… The eighteenth century saw another dramatic increase, with about 6,000,000 slaves being shipped across the Atlantic… Adding the figures up over periods and parts of Africa, well over 10,000,000 Africans were shipped out…

La poderosa domanda europea ebbe un impatto forte sulle società africane. Gli affari garantiti trasformarono molti stati africani in stati produttori di schiavi, ovvero in stati guerrieri visto che gli schiavi erano per lo più prigionieri di guerra. “Cattura e vendi”, questo l’imperativo che arricchì molti popoli locali.

Lo stato guerriero era uno stato assoluto con un capo plenipotenziario che esercitava un controllo totale sulla popolazione. Prima, le società africane erano molto più decentralizzate, alla stregua di quelle del medioevo europeo. Tutta questa articolazione andò in malora.

La trasformazione del sistema giudiziario fu esemplare, esisteva una sola punizione: la schiavitù! Il destino del famoso oracolo Arochukwa spiega molto…

… One example is the famous oracle at Arochukwa, in eastern Nigeria. The oracle was widely believed to speak for a prominent deity in the region respected by the major local ethnic groups, the Ijaw, the Ibibio, and the Igbo. The oracle was approached to settle disputes and adjudicate on disagreements. Plaintiffs who traveled to Arochukwa to face the oracle had to descend from the town into a gorge of the Cross River, where the oracle was housed in a tall cave, the front of which was lined with human skulls. The priests of the oracle, in league with the Aro slavers and merchants, would dispense the decision of the oracle. Often this involved people being “swallowed” by the oracle, which actually meant that once they had passed through the cave, they were led away down the Cross River and to the waiting ships of the Europeans. This process in which all laws and customs were distorted and broken to capture slaves and more slaves had devastating effects on political centralization, though in some places it did lead to the rise of powerful states whose main raison d’être was raiding and slaving…

Il regno del Congo si trasformò in uno stato schiavista. Un altro tipico stato schiavista e conquistatore fu quello degli Oyo in Nigeria…

… As Oyo expanded south toward the coast, it crushed the intervening polities and sold many of their inhabitants for slaves. In the period between 1690 and 1740, Oyo established its monopoly in the interior of what came to be known as the Slave Coast…

Si realizzò una drammatica miscela di schiavizzazione e guerre. Un esempio canonico è quello di Asante…

… Asante expanded from the interior, in much the same way as Oyo had previously. During the first half of the eighteenth century, this expansion triggered the so-called Akan Wars, as Asante defeated one independent state after another. The last, Gyaman, was conquered in 1747. The preponderance of the 375,000 slaves exported from the Gold Coast between 1700 and 1750 were captives taken in these wars…

Lo sfruttamento dell’uomo sull’uomo causò anche ripercussioni demografiche delle quali si è occupato lo storico Patrick Manning… 

… population of this region in 1850 ought to have been at least forty-six to fifty-three million. In fact, it was about one-half of this… million people being exported as slaves… millions likely killed by continual internal warfare aimed at capturing slaves…

Persino istituzioni ben radicate come quella matrimoniale davano segni di disgregazione.

A fine 700 cominciò a farsi sentire in Europa il movimento anti schiavista con a capo  William Wilberforce. Nel 1807 la schiavitù era illegale.

Fu un durissimo colpo per le economie africane ormai organizzate intorno a questo commercio.

Si cerco di virare verso i cosiddetti commerci legittimi: olio di palma, noccioline, avori, gomma… Ma che fare dell’eccesso di schiavi e dell’apparato costruito per “produrli”? Semplice, furono utilizzati in loco nella cultura dei prodotti legittimi da esportare. L’esempio di Asante…

… the Asante political elite reorganized their economy. However, slaving and slavery did not end. Rather, slaves were settled on large plantations, initially around the capital city of Kumase, but later spread throughout the empire (corresponding to most of the interior of Ghana). They were employed in the production of gold and kola nuts for export, but also grew large quantities of food and were intensively used as porters, since Asante did not use wheeled transportation…

L’abolizione della schiavitù nel mondo occidentale fece sì che l’economia africana crescesse con al centro l’utilizzo degli schiavi. Le guerre continue necessarie alla loro produzione continuarono inalterate. Si diffuse a macchia d’olio anche la pratica dei rapimenti.

… Kidnapping was such a problem in some parts of Nigeria that parents would not let their children play outside…

L’800 africano vide un’espansione della schiavitù anziché una contrazione, com’era logico attendersi dopo l’abolizione in Europa…

… More accurate data exist from early French colonial records for the western Sudan, a large swath of western Africa, stretching from Senegal, via Mali and Burkina Faso, to Niger and Chad. In this region 30 percent of the population was enslaved in 1900…

Persino la colonizzazione europea del XIX secolo non riuscì a stroncare un’istituzione ormai consolidata. Ci sono casi paradossali come quello della Sierra Leone e della Liberia…

… In Sierra Leone, for example, it was only in 1928 that slavery was finally abolished, even though the capital city of Freetown was originally established in the late eighteenth century as a haven for slaves repatriated from the Americas. It then became an important base for the British antislavery squadron and a new home for freed slaves rescued from slave ships captured by the British navy…Liberia, just south of Sierra Leone, was likewise founded for freed American slaves in the 1840s. Yet there, too, slavery lingered into the twentieth century; as late as the 1960s, it was estimated that one-quarter of the labor force were coerced, living and working in conditions close to slavery…

Naturalmente, schiavitù diffusa e guerre non creano l’ambiente ideale per recepire e mettere a frutto le grandi novità della rivoluzione industriale, da qui il perenne sottosviluppo dell’ Africa sub-sahariana.

Ma c’è anche un’ Africa che non conobbe la schiavitù: il Sudafrica. Vediamo allora come andarono le cose da questa parte del mondo.

Sir Artur Lewis – pioniere dell’economia dello sviluppo – propose il modello dell’economia duale per spiegare l’arretratezza di certi paesi…

… According to Lewis, many less-developed or underdeveloped economies have a dual structure and are divided into a modern sector and a traditional sector. The modern sector, which corresponds to the more developed part of the economy, is associated with urban life, modern industry, and the use of advanced technologies. The traditional sector is associated with rural life, agriculture, and “backward” institutions and technologies. Backward agricultural institutions include the communal ownership of land, which implies the absence of private property rights on land. Labor was used so inefficiently in the traditional sector, according to Lewis, that it could be reallocated to the modern sector without reducing the amount the rural sector could produce…

La soluzione era semplice: spostare persone dai settori poveri a quelli ricchi e più produttivi.

Per decenni il paradigma di Lewis fu adottato da tutti. Il Sudafrica illustra però il suo lato debole…

… South Africa was one of the clearest examples, split into a traditional sector that was backward and poor and a modern one that was vibrant and prosperous… Across the river, it is as if it were a different time and a different country… By now you will not be surprised that these differences are linked with major differences in economic institutions between the two sides of the river…

A est, nel Natal, troviamo proprietà privata, agricoltura commerciale, industria e prosperità. A ovest, nel Transkei, abbiamo tribalismo, beni comuni e scarsa produttività. Tutti i neri vivevano in questo territorio governato da istituzioni pre-moderno.

Il paradigma di Lewis descrive bene la fotografia della situazione ma non ci fa capire la storia che c’è dietro. Il dualismo così ben visibile non era un portato della storia ma un fenomeno recente…

… It was created by the South African white elites in order to produce a reservoir of cheap labor…and reduce competition from black Africans…

Partiamo dall’inizio. Per clima e salubrità il Sudafrica è sempre stato appetibile per gli europei, l’espansione all’interno da parte degli olandesi cominciò subito dopo la presa degli inglesi del capo di Buona Speranza. Erano le terre degli Xhosa (Bantù), un popolo immune da ogni forma di schiavismo…

… The penetration into the South African interior was intensified in 1835, when the remaining Europeans of Dutch descent, who would become known as Afrikaners or Boers, started their famous mass migration known as the Great Trek away from the British control of the coast and the Cape Town area. The Afrikaners subsequently founded two independent states in the interior of Africa, the Orange Free State and the Transvaal…

Altro evento capitale fu la scoperta dei diamanti a Kimberley nel 1867 e dell’oro a Johannesburg nel 1886. Una simile ricchezza indusse gli inglesi a controllare più strettamente questi territori…

… The resistance of the Orange Free State and the Transvaal led to the famous Boer Wars in 1880–1881 and 1899–1902… After initial unexpected defeat, the British managed to merge the Afrikaner states with the Cape Province and Natal…

Lo sviluppo portato dalle miniere e la forte domanda alimentare fece prosperare l’intera economia africana circostante, in particolare talune culture agricole.

Lo storico Colin Bundy descrive bene il dinamismo economico della regione. La testimonianza di un missionario…

… “To obtain these objects, they look . . . to get money by the labour of their hands, and purchase clothes, spades, ploughs, wagons and other useful articles.”… he was struck with the very great advancement made by the Fingoes in a few years . . . Wherever I went I found substantial huts and brick or stone tenements. In many cases, substantial brick houses had been erected . . . and fruit trees had been planted; wherever a stream of water could be made available it had been led out and the soil cultivated as far as it could be irrigated; the slopes of the hills and even the summits of the mountains were cultivated wherever a plough could be introduced. The extent of the land turned over surprised me; I have not seen such a large area of cultivated land for years…

L’aratro, una tecnologia nuova, fu prontamente adottato senza difficoltà. Ma furono approntati anche canali d’irrigazione. Le classiche istituzioni tribali cominciavano a svanire, la proprietà privata prendeva piede e l’agricoltura fioriva. Testimonianza del magistrato di Umzimkulu of Griqualand…

… “the growing desire of the part of natives to become proprietors of land—they have purchased 38,000 acres.”…

Un vero cambiamento era in atto. Un caso di successo fu quello dell’imprenditore Stephen Sonjica…

… self-made farmer from a poor background. In an address in 1911, Sonjica noted how when he first expressed to his father his desire to buy land, his father had responded: “Buy land? How can you want to buy land? Don’t you know that all land is God’s, and he gave it to the chiefs only?” Sonjica’s father’s reaction was understandable. But Sonjica was not deterred. He got a job in King William’s Town…

Testimonianza del missionario metodista W.J. Davis…

… he recorded with pleasure that he had collected forty-six pounds in cash “for the Lancashire Cotton Relief Fund.”…

Tuttavia, questa evoluzione dispiaceva comprensibilmente ai capi tradizionali che si opposero a molte riforme agrarie. Una testimonianza:

… “some of the chiefs . . . objected, but most of the people were pleased... the chiefs see that the granting of individual titles will destroy their influence among the headmen.”…

Si opposero ferocemente anche allo scavo dei canali per l’irrigazione e all’introduzione di una proprietà privata sempre più estesa.

Nel periodo 1890-1913 il corso delle degli eventi si invertì e il tempo volse al brutto.

Dapprima lo sviluppo africano trovò un ostacolo nell’opposizione degli agricoltori bianchi. E’ chiaro che una concorrenza così feroce li disturbava.

In secondo luogo, le miniere chiedevano manodopera a basso costo e la presenza di attività economiche alternative era un ostacolo. George Albu, il direttore delle miniere, in uno scambio con la commissione governativa:

… Commission: Suppose the kaffirs [black Africans] retire back to their kraal [cattle pen]? Would you be in favor of asking the Government to enforce labour? Albu: Certainly . . . I would make it compulsory . . . Why should a nigger be allowed to do nothing? I think a kaffir should be compelled to work in order to earn his living. Commission: If a man can live without work, how can you force him to work? Albu: Tax him, then . . . Commission: Then you would not allow the kaffir to hold land in the country, but he must work for the white man to enrich him? Albu: He must do his part of the work of helping his neighbours …

Nel 1913 si varò la “Legge sui Nativi” che divideva il Sudafrica in due parti confinando gli africani in riserve minuscole, era l’inizio dell’ Apartheid. Molti diritti economici e politici venivano riservati alla minoranza bianca. Gli africani non potevano essere “proprietari” e con loro si potevano stipulare solo contratti di servizio: l’agricoltura dei nativi, così promettente, si dissolse.

Un economista in visita negli anni 50 avrebbe visto una nazione divisa in due: da una parte gli europei istruiti e sviluppati, dall’altra gli africani poveri e arretrati. Il dualismo di Lewis perfettamente confermato ma tutt’altro che naturale, bensì imposto con la forza dalla minoranza privilegiata. Un portato del colonialismo europeo, un frutto amaro di leggi governative discriminatorie per creare manodopera economica in vista dell’impiego nelle miniere, oppure per proteggere gli agricoltori bianchi da una concorrenza agguerrita.

In condizioni del genere tornarono i capi tradizionali, gli stregoni e le istituzioni di un tempo. La terra torno ad essere “bene comune”, e quindi sterile.

Nel 1951 fu varato il “Bantù Act”. Nelle parole dello storico Findlay…

… Tribal tenure is a guarantee that the land will never properly be worked and will never really belong to the natives. Cheap labour must have a cheap breeding place, and so it is furnished to the Africans at their own expense…

L’evidenza portata alla luce dallo storico Francis Wilson dimostra il contraccolpo nel tenore di vita dei neri e il declino della loro economia…

… miners’ wages fell by 30 percent between 1911 and 1921… in 1961… 12 percent lower than they had been in 1911…No African was allowed to own property or start a business in the European part…87 percent of the land…

Da notare che anche nel settore del lavoro subordinato, già dal 1904, una quota dei posti era sempre riservata ai bianchi….

… No African was allowed to be an amalgamator, an assayer, a banksman, a blacksmith, a boiler maker, a brass finisher, a brassmolder, a bricklayer . . . and the list went on and on, all the way to woodworking machinist. At a stroke, Africans were banned from occupying any skilled job in the mining sector. This was the first incarnation of the famous “colour bar,” one of the several racist inventions of South Africa’s regime…

Negli anni 50 Hendrik Verwoerd varò il “Bantù Edication Act”…

… The Bantu must be guided to serve his own community in all respects. There is no place for him in the European community above the level of certain forms of labour... For that reason it is to no avail to him to receive a training which has as its aim absorption in the European community while he cannot and will not be absorbed there…

Con istituzioni sfruttatrici di questo tipo l’economia ne risentì anche nel suo complesso, gli anni 70 segnarono il primo forte rallentamento…

… At the time of the foundation of the Union of South Africa in 1910, the Afrikaner polities of the Orange Free State and the Transvaal had explicit racial franchises, barring blacks completely from political participation. Natal and the Cape Colony allowed blacks to vote if they had sufficient property, which typically they did not. The status quo of Natal and the Cape Colony was kept in 1910, but by the 1930s, blacks had been explicitly disenfranchised everywhere in South Africa. The dual economy of South Africa did come to an end in 1994…

Il resto è storia recente.

Un piccolo riassunto della tesi di fondo:

…World inequality today exists because during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries some nations were able to take advantage of the Industrial Revolution and the technologies and methods of organization that it brought while others were unable to do so…

Ecco, nei casi descritti il terzomondista ha ben ragione nel dire: “loro sono ricchi perché noi siamo poveri”. Ma la colpa non è del “modello occidentale” bensì dell’esclusione dal “modello occidentale”. E’ un certo modello coloniale, piuttosto, a dover essere messo sotto accusa.

L'economia è una fiaba (e le fiabe sono molto importanti)

Cos’è l’economia? Purtroppo è necessario rispondere a questa domanda per chi vuole criticare o omaggiare gli economisti.

Al momento la risposta migliore è disponibile nel libro di Ariel Rubinstein: Economic Fables. Naturalmente è un’opinione personale, sia chiaro.

Ariel è un economista (forse il più grande teorico dei giochi vivente) che non non conosce bene l’economia (PIL, titoli, opzioni, indici…), non è nemmeno molto interessato ad essa (come tutti noi salta regolarmente la pagina economica dei giornali) e non dà molto credito ai discorsi improntati al gergo economico:

…. I am not sure that I know what an option is; I am not attempting to predict the rate of inflation tomorrow nor the productivity index in manufacturing the day after tomorrow… I would like to state that economic theory is exploited in discussions about current economic issues, and I don’t like it…, to put it mildly…

Come tutti sanno, gli economisti vivono di modelli. Ecco allora un’analogia illuminante:

… The word model sounds more scientific than the word fable or tale, but I think we are talking about the same thing….

Cosa fa un buon cantastorie?:

… The author of a tale seeks to impart a lesson about life to his readers…

Il che è un compito assai nobile:

… It is possible to dismiss any tale on the grounds that it is unrealistic, or that it is too simplistic. But this is also its advantage…

Il cantastorie ha un vantaggio sullo scienziato: puo’ dare più spazio alla bellezza e alla semplicità, sebbene non arrivi alla libertà dell’artista:

… free from irrelevant details and unnecessary diversions…

A volte si accusano i modelli economici di essere “semplicistici”. Ma questa, lungi dall’essere un’accusa è una definizione della loro essenza, anche le fiabe sono riduzioni semplicistiche della realtà:

… Economic theory spins tales and calls them models. An economic model is also somewhere between fantasy and reality. Models can be denounced for being simplistic and unrealistic, but modeling is essential because it is the only method we have of clarifying concepts, evaluating assumptions, verifying conclusions and acquiring insights that will serve us when we return from the model to real life…

Ma perché tanta matematica? I cantastorie ne hanno davvero bisogno?

… Formal language imposes self-discipline on the storyteller…

E’ una questione di generi: i giallisti devono essere più rigorosi degli autori fantasy, e gli economisti ancora più rigorosi dei giallisti.

Naturalmente il modello deve poter essere descritto (una favola è pur sempre una narrazione):

… A description of an economic model is like the introduction in a tale, presenting the heroes, their interests and the setting in which they operate….

Tutto cio’ non toglie il fatto che la matematica crei anche molti danni comunicativi:

…However, formal language also has its disadvantages. It creates the illusion of being scientific. Those unfamiliar with formal models tend to regard them as representing “absolute truth,” though they are nothing more than tales…

A volte la matematica fa girare al largo dalla disciplina persone con un vero talento da economisti, peccato:

… From my teaching experience I have learned that even the best economics students with the highest affinity for the subject have difficulty with the language of formal models, perhaps due to their persistent confusion between the formal model and its interpretation…

Un guaio che si riverbera in modo preoccupante nella vita pubblica:

… when it comes to questions of economic policy, the model’s formal mantle enables economists to create the false impression that their pronouncements are scientific and authoritative…

La matematica è anche un modo astuto per neutralizzare le critiche, anche le più evidenti. E’ una funzione tipica del gergo:

… The barrier between the secret formal language and ordinary human speech almost completely prevents anyone who is not a member of the economic fraternity from criticizing “professional” economic claims...

Ma veniamo ora a qualche esempio di “favola” raccontata dall’economia. Si potrebbe partire dalla fiaba dei giornalai di Hotelling:

… Two newsvendors compete for the custom of their city’s newspaper readers located along the city’s main street… In a simple version of the model, the freedom of action of each vendor is limited to choosing the location of his stand… At lunchtime, each newspaper reader takes a break from his other pursuits and realizes that he cannot get through the day without reading the newspaper. The reader sees where the two newsvendors are located, and sets out to buy a newspaper from the closest one…. the principles by which the tale’s conclusion is tested – that is, the solution of the two unknowns – can be found in the solution concept. The conventional solution concept for situations like the above is called a Nash equilibrium… the location of each vendor must be the best one for him given the location of the other one… When one vendor is located in the center, the other will have less than half of the market share if he does not set up his stand in the center too…. Nash equilibrium is achieved when both vendors set up their stands in the center… Any other pair of locations is not a Nash equilibrium… We are thus left with a single equilibrium: the two vendors set up in the center. This situation, a single-equilibrium model, is ideal from the perspective of the narrator of the economic tale because the result of the equilibrium can then be regarded as the inevitable conclusion of the tale…

La favola facilita alcune considerazioni: 

… the competition leads to an outcome that is not ideal from the buyers’ standpoint. If one of the vendors sets up at a location other than the center, none of the buyers will suffer and some will benefit, i.e., those who are now closer to the nearest one…

Il cantastorie sa raccontare questa favoletta in modi sempre diversi:

… For example, instead of a main street of a city, economists apply the model to a situation in which two cola manufacturers must choose the sugar content in the product… The conclusion drawn from the model in this case is that both manufacturers should produce an identical product…

La versione “politica” della favole è forse ancora più interessante:

… Political scientists interpret each location point on the main street as a political position in a one-dimensional space (political right versus left, for example). Each candidate positions himself on the political map, aspiring to receive the maximum number of votes… if there are two parties operating in the political space, and if the subject of dispute is primarily one-dimensional, the platforms of the two parties will be identical, in the center of the political spectrum…

Naturalmente nella realtà non avremo mai storie del genere: le fiabe non sono la realtà. Tuttavia, chi ha ascoltato con profitto le favole conoscerà meglio le forze basilari che agiscono anche nella realtà: le fiabe le enfatizzano!

Veniamo adesso alla favola dei tre sarti: 

… Imagine an island with six hundred residents, all dressed in identical clothes that require mending every month. Three tailors work at mending the clothes. For as long as anyone can remember, the residents of the island have been divided equally between the three tailors… even with great effort, none of them can do more than three hundred repairs a month. The residents feel that there is “hidden unemployment” in the tailoring sector… It seems that two tailors would be enough and that it would be better if one of the tailors were to quit tailoring and find himself another job… One day, the idea of the free market reaches the island. The traditions are shattered and the decrees canceled, and each tailor can decide on the price he charges for repairs… What will happen on the island in the new situation? The continuation of the Tale of the Three Tailors must provide answers to the following questions: Which tailors will remain in this occupation?… we will use a solution concept called competitive equilibrium… this condition demands that precisely two tailors remain in this business… We will now see that there is competitive equilibrium when the price of a repair is $2.50 (or any other price between $2 and $3), and only tailors B and C remain in this business sector… An “invisible hand” generates the competitive equilibrium price and mobilizes the self-interest of the tailors and the islanders to correct the inefficiency created by the traditions and decrees that were recently canceled…

E’ senz’altro la favoletta preferita dagli economisti. Tra i suoi pregi quella di mettere in evidenza alcuni assunti problematici:

Several assumptions in this story are not obvious. First, is it indeed so clear that the tailors will lower their prices after the cancellation of the traditions and decrees? We expect them to act only in pursuit of their own personal interests… Second, let’s assume that the tailors are not so wise and fall into the trap the competitive atmosphere lays for them. Is it clear that the consumers will indeed choose the least expensive tailor?…

La favola è gravida di conseguenze:

… However, the improvement also led to a change in the distribution of income. The situation is worse for the tailors and better for their customers… Is the income distribution better now? Are the tailors now receiving fairer compensation for their work? Is the price for mending clothes now more reasonable? There are no objective answers to these questions…

C’è anche la favola della torta, una delle mie preferite: 

A pie is to be divided between two diners; let’s call them A and B. Both want as much of the pie as possible. Without an agreement on how to divide the pie, both will remain without anything… Each day, one side offers a proposal and the second responds, accepting it or rejecting it. Every time one side rejects the proposal submitted to him, he must submit a counter-offer, but not before the next day… From the perspective of each of the two parties involved, each day that passes without an agreement is like losing a part of the pie… Let us stipulate that from A’s perspective, the loss incurred from each day of bargaining is equal to 2% of the pie. B is more impatient and from his perspective the loss from each day of bargaining is equal to 3%.. Here we will use the solution concept called perfect equilibrium… The model perhaps clarifies the common intuition that a player whose time is more expensive is in a weaker negotiating position vis-à-vis a player whose time is less expensive…

Molti che hanno visitato certi mercati levantini saranno rinviati da questa favoletta a situazioni molto concrete:

… I was inspired by the market in the Old City in Jerusalem where I occasionally bargained when purchasing a Bedouin rug or Armenian plate. I really hate to bargain. Once, when I was fed up with the bargaining games in the market, I said to a trader, “Why don’t we play a different game: you make an offer and I’ll simply say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ ?… “Tell me, did you think that I thought there was some offer I would make and that you would accept?” And then he added: “For generations, we have bargained in our way and you come and try to change it?”!…

Dopo questi tre esempi, veniamo al dunque: qual è la relazione tra modelli e realtà? Prima possibile risposta (il modello serve a fare previsioni):

… According to one view, an economic model is supposed to serve as a basis for making predictions… According to this approach, a model is supposed to be an objective description of the real world, not a tale… If the model does not provide enough good predictions, it must be augmented with additional details.

Purtroppo arricchire il modello per renderlo predittivo serve solo a distruggerlo:

… But the increased complexity of the model exacts a steep price: it is hard to understand and is difficult to solve…

Altra posizione (il modello è un esercizio intellettuale che mi rende più esperto nella materia):

… According to another view, the objective of the economic model is to sharpen perception. A model is an intellectual exercise… Just as a soldier use simulations in training, the economist exercises his intuitions on a model before offering advice. The use of formal models helps to develop our intuitions about the way things occur in life… These economists did not rely on a particular model, but claimed that their work with formal economic models sharpened their senses….

Purtroppo gli economisti, se chiamati ad agire in quanto operatori economici, non si dimostrano delle grandi volpi:

… But I am quite sure that if instead of devoting my adult life to economic models I had engaged in a non-academic profession, I would view life from standpoints that are less abstract but no less useful…

Ma allora perché mai milioni di studenti sono chiamati a studiare questi modelli, magari nella loro versione più ostica, quella matematica. In fondo se proprio uno vuole ascoltare una fiaba ce ne sono di più piacevoli.

E’ chiaro che gli economisti più sensibili nutrono un certo senso di colpa per la loro esistenza:

… We economists are delighted when we find evidence of purposefulness in our work, because we are full of guilty feelings about devoting our lives to meaningless studies when the world faces innumerable problems…

Una soluzione per dare senso all’economia potrebbe essere questa: l’economia espone la logica della vita. Conoscerla è un bene in sè.

… According to this approach, an economic model is not essentially different from a model in logic. A model in logic is not a prediction of how humans judge whether a phrase in ordinary language is true or false. It is not a recommendation for a thinking person and it is not designed to educate people to think correctly. I contend that economics studies the logic of life, but does not engage in predictions or recommendations… We are satisfied even if the economic model is merely interesting…

Ecco come conclude l’economista Ariel:

… I do not think that the bargaining models that I myself have studied have significant predictive value; I am not more qualified than any reader (but also not less qualified than my colleagues) to give advice on how to conduct negotiations, and I do not feel that dealing with these models has sharpened my ability to understand the process of bargaining in the market… At most, we find links between natural ways of thinking and bargaining processes. That is all. Yes, I admit that it is tempting for me to think of myself as a teller of tales, a philosopher, a researcher of the social sciences, in fact, anything but an economist… I have limited knowledge of current economic issues. During most of my life, these issues have not interested me. I usually toss the economics section of the newspaper in the bin together with the sections on sports, fashion and health… On the other hand, I am obsessively occupied with denying any interpretation contending that economic models produce conclusions of real value. I feel attracted to economics as a branch of philosophy… If the models we develop in yellow notepads or on blackboards constitute a basis for predicting human behavior, it would be miraculous in my eyes… There are no miracles in economics, but there are wonders. In my studies in the Department of Mathematics in Jerusalem, I learned to see wonders in the world of formalities…

Possiamo concludere che secondo Ariel l’economista è essenzialmente un filosofo che spiega la logica della vita e nulla più.

COMMENTO PERSONALE

Ariel Rubinstein è convincente nel suo resoconto, anche se difficilmente il mainstream si adeguerà mai ad una simile riduzione del suo ruolo: l’economista-scienziato ambisce ai posti di potere e li ottiene. L’istituzione delle banche centrali e la necessità di un loro governo e di una politica monetaria affidabile ha segnato un successo dell’ “economia come scienza” che appare irreversibile.