CHAPTER 2 IGNORANT, IRRATIONAL, MISINFORMED NATIONALISTS
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crosses the street
Note:L INCENTIVO A GUARDAR BENE
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incentive to form beliefs in a rational
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optical illusion.
Note:DUBBI CERVELLOTICI
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conspiracy theory,
Note:COSA CI COSTA CRDERE AI COMPLOTTI?
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chances that an individual’s vote will make any sort of difference
Note:UNO SA CHE IL SUO VOTO NN FARÀ MAI LA DIFDERENZA
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A well-informed vote produces the same results as a badly informed,
Note:I VOTI NN SI PESANO
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irrationality is punished.
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knowledge and rationality do not pay,
Note:IN POLITICA
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We fight unnecessary wars. We implement bad policies that perpetuate poverty. We overregulate drugs or underregulate carbon pollution.
Note:LISTA ERRORI
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Ignorance and apathy
Note:HOBBIT
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bias and zealotry
Note:HOOLIGANS
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WHAT CITIZENS DON’T KNOW
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Philip Converse
Note:L ESPERTO IN IGNORANZA ELETTORALE
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the mean is low and the variance is high.”
Note:DISTRIBUZIONE DELL INFO POLITICA
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Somin,
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35 percent of voters are “know-nothings.”
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SOMIN
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Larry Bartels
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one the best-documented features
Note:SE C È QUALCOSA CHE SAPPIAMO
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Jeffrey Friedman
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academic and journalistic
Note:IL TERMINE DI PARAGONE
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John Ferejohn
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the paucity of information most people possess about politics.”
Note:COSA VEDERE
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congressional candidates in their district.
Note:SEGUONO ESEMPI DI IGNORANZA
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which party controls Congress.
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unaware that Congress had added a prescription drug benefit to Medicare,
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Troubled Asset Relief Program was enacted under George W. Bush rather than Barack Obama.
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how much money is spent on foreign aid,
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In 1964, only a minority of citizens knew that the Soviet Union was not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
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not understand what the Cold War was about.
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how much is spent on social security
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slightly more than half of all Americans knew Al Gore was more liberal than Bush,
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less than half knew that Gore was more supportive of abortion rights,
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worse than a coin flip.
Note:SU QUESTIONI CHIAVE
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voters generally know who the current president is, but they don’t know much more beyond that.
Note:NN DI PIÙ
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nonvoters—adult
Note:I PIÙ IGNORANTI
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the form of a multiple-choice test.
Note:I TEST DI IGNORANZA SOTTOSTIMANO L IGNORANZA
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they usually don’t ask citizens to identify particulars or degrees.
Note:CONSIDERATA CONOSCENZA ANCHE QUELLA RELATIVA
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how much more
Note:ORDINALI SUFFICIENTI
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how much it had decreased.
Note:DEBITO
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they ask easy questions.
Note:STUDI TROPPO FACILI
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easily verifiable facts.
Note:OGGETTO
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You could Google the answer to all these questions in a few minutes.
Note:EPPURE NESSUNO SA
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easy questions is not enough to be well informed about politics.
Note:È LA BASE
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To know whom to vote for, one needs to know more than what candidates stand for,
Note:ESEMPIO
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to assess whether the candidates’ preferred policies would tend to promote
Note:ANDARE OLTRE
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Smith favors free trade, and Colbert favors protectionism.
Note:ESEMPIO
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Friedman and Wilson both want to reduce inner-city crime, but Friedman argues we should end the war on drugs, while Wilson says we need to double down.
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ALTRO ESEMPIO
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need to know about criminology, the economics and sociology of black markets,
Note:COSA OCCORRE SAPERE
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significant social scientific knowledge.
Note:COSA MANCA
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“What voters don’t know would fill a university library.”
Note:MOTTO
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ideology Smith called “mercantilism.”
Note:ESEMPIO DI IGNORANZA ECONOMICA
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the typical American voter more or less accepts mercantilism.
Note:ESITO DELLA BATTAGLIA DI SMITH
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don’t know what the three branches of government are,
Note:ALTRO ESEMPIO
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Americans revere the Constitution, but they don’t know what it says.
Note:IGNORANZA COSTIT
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They just need to know enough to throw the incumbent bastards out when the bastards are doing a bad job.”
Note:OBIEZIONE
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requires a tremendous amount of social scientific knowledge.
Note:SAPERE INDIVIDUARE UN BAD JOB
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how to attribute responsibility
Note:ES DI DIFFICOLTÀ DA SUPERARE
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how stable political ignorance is.
Note:LA COSA PIÚ SORPRENDENTE
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information is cheap
Note:OGGI
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I use it to look at pictures of cats and argue with strangers.”
Note:LO STRUMENTO PER CONOSCERE TUTTO LO SCIBILE UMANO
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better educated than ever before,
Note:OGGI
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remain roughly as ignorant
Note:EPPURE
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MOST VOTERS AREN’T STUPID; THEY JUST DON’T CARE
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Acquiring information has a cost.
Note:PERCHÈ GNORANTI? BASTA LA MICROECONOMIA
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expected benefits of possessing that
Note:MINUSCOLI
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rational ignorance.
Note:FENOMENO
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A vote makes a difference
Note:EVENTO RARISSIMO
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more likely to win Powerball
Note:DIAMOCI ALLE LOTTERIE
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votes have almost zero expected value.
Note:VALORE
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SOME CITIZENS KNOW MUCH MORE THAN OTHERS
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Ignorance is not uniform.
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tremendous variance
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Scott Althaus
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15.6
Note:RISPOSTE ESATTO SU 18 DEI MGLIORI
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2.5
Note:PEGGIORI
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a multiple-choice exam
Note:DI COSA PARLIAMO
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not evenly spread among all demographic groups.
Note:DEMOGRAFIA
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having a college degree,
Note:GIOVA
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the top half of income earners,
Note:GIOVA
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thirty-five and fifty-four,
Note:ETÀ DEI PIÙ INFORMATI
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black,
Note:DISINFORMATI
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being female.
Note:DISINFORMAYE
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INFORMATION CHANGES POLICY PREFERENCES
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Martin Gilens
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invading Iraq in 2003.
Note:EVENTO TESTAT
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torture, protectionism,
Note:ESEMPI DI POLITICHE APPOGGIATI DAGLI GNORANT
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abortion rights
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access to birth control.
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less tolerant of homosexuals
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favor overall less government intervention
Note:I PIÙ INFO
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free trade
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pro-choice.
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offset the deficit and debt.
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less punitive and harsh measures on crime,
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less hawkish on military policy,
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accepting of affirmative action.
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less supportive of prayer in public schools.
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less moralistic in law;
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WHY ISN’T EVERYONE IGNORANT?
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why some people are so well informed.
Note:IL VERO MISTERO
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Hearing more and forgetting less:
Note:PRIMA RAGIONE... LA SCUOLA
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A belief in a moral duty to be informed:
Note:RAGIONE ICA
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Belonging and social class:
Note:RAGIONE CONFORMISTA
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Political geeks:
Note:MOMENTO LUDICO ESIBIZIONISTA
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a nerd, a geek, an infovore.
Note:TIPI CHE ESISTONO
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an incentive to believe whatever their peers and friends believe about politics.
Note:EFFETTO PECORA
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POLITICAL IRRATIONALITY
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most citizens process political information in deeply biased, partisan, motivated ways
Note:UN FATTO ASSODATO DALLA PSICOLOGIA POLITICA
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Milton Lodge and Charles Taber
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Leonie Huddy, David Sears, and Jack Levy
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human brain was designed more for winning arguments and forming coalitions than seeking truth.
Note:L INCONVENIENTE
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Jonathan Haidt
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Argumentative Theory
Note:SPERBER
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reasoning can be epistemically dangerous.
Note:RAGIONARE È XICOLOSO
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Psychologist Drew Westen
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POLITICAL TRIBALISM
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“intergroup bias.”
Note:LEALTÀ
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biased to forgive most transgressions from our own group
Note:SELFINDULGENT
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Henry Tajfel
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Geoffrey Cohen
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people are trying to be faithful
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some people are political fans.55 Sports fans enjoy rooting for a team.
Note:MOLTI HANNO UNA VERA PASSIONE
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People tend to see themselves as being on team
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almost all self-described independent voters are closet partisans;
Note:NO INDIP
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Diana Mutz
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political “fandom” is what motivates
Note:IL TIFO CI MOTIVA
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“cross-cutting political exposure”—exposure to contrary points of view, or talking to people who disagree—strongly decreases the likelihood that a person will vote,
Note:ASCOLTARE CON ATTENZIONE TUTTI CI DEMOTIVA
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consider how beliefs about certain political issues tend to be clustered together,
Note:IL TRIBALISMO CONNETTE ANCHE QUESTIONI DISTINTE
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gun control, global warming,
Note:ES
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minimum wage, gay marriage,
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I can predict with a high degree of reliability what your stance
Note:SE CONOSCO UNA COSA CONOSCO ANCHE L ALTRA
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The issues are logically unrelated.
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pro-choice,
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pro-gun
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Democrats’ beliefs are all true,
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L OPINIONE DEI DEMOCRAT
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why then would Republicans hold the opposite set
Note:RESTA UN DUBBIO
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Republicans would tend to have randomly distributed
Note:SE VANNO ALLA CIECA
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OTHER EXAMPLES OF COGNITIVE BIAS IN POLITICS
Note:Tttttt
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Confirmation bias and disconfirmation bias: We tend to accept evidence that supports our preexisting
Note:CONFEEME
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Dan Kahan
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Availability bias:
Note:DISPONIBILITÀ
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The problem here is that we are terrible at estimating probabilities.
Note:PROB
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Affective contagion and prior attitude effect:
Note:ALTRO BIAS
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Framing effects:
Note:BIAS
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Peer pressure and authority:
Note:BIAS
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WHY POLITICAL IRRATIONALITY IS RATIONAL
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AT LEAST VOTERS MEAN WELL, SORT OF
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They overwhelmingly conclude that voters do not vote selfishly.
Note:NO EGO
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Voters generally want to promote the common good
BENE COMUNE
