Scommetti con Pascal? Allora scommetti anche con me!

'via Blog this'

Tutti conoscono la scommessa pascaliana. C' è chi dice che sia razionale scommettere per l' esistenza di Dio. A costoro si puo' proporre:

The following offer should be irresistible to anyone who accepts
Pascal’s wager as sound. Many philosophers do in fact think that
Pascal’s wager is sound but for those who do not think so I suggest
below why the offer should be accepted by anyone who thinks there
is some probability that Pascal’s wager might be sound, no matter
how small the probability.
The offer is as follows. For a fee of all your wealth I will use my
line to God to put in a word on your behalf. I assert that individuals
for whom I put in a good word are more likely to enter heaven and
receive everlasting joy than are other individuals. Table 2 shows
the different possible outcomes, their utilities, and in brackets some
probabilities to be discussed below.

Since my offer applies to those who accept Pascal’s wager as
sound they expect an infinite utility from believing in God whether
or not my offer is accepted. The table suggests, therefore, that
paying the fee is dominated by not paying the fee. The inference,
however, is incorrect. Paying the fee is infinitely better than not
paying the fee as becomes clear once we introduce probabilities.
If God exists and my line to God is open someone who pays the fee
enters heaven with probability p1 but someone who does not pay
the fee enters heaven with only probabilityp2 withp2 < p1:If God
exists but my line to God is broken then with probabilityp3 both the
payer and non-payer enter heaven. With probability p4 neither the
payer nor the non-payer enter heaven but the non-payer is better off
by amount w.
...
Pascal’s wager is initially compelling because “believing” in God
appears to be costless.6Believing in the possibility of infinite utility,
however, implies that the believer is willing to accept any finite cost
to achieve any positive probability, no matter how small, of attaining
infinite utility. The offer makes this latter point particularly clear

Possibile significato: la scommessa di Pascal ha poco senso se presa isolatamente ma assume senso in un contesto di teologia naturale: ha perfettamente senso dare tutto di se stessi ma occorre dare se stessi secondo la modalità più ragionevole. In altri termini: la scommessa di Pascal è sensata se posso dire qualcosa di quel dio per cui scommetto.