Visualizzazione post con etichetta scienza prediction market. Mostra tutti i post
Visualizzazione post con etichetta scienza prediction market. Mostra tutti i post

venerdì 26 ottobre 2018

Scommettere sulla qualità

Di solito la qualità di un lavoro scientifico viene affidata alle citazioni che riceve. Non esiste qualcosa di meglio? Forse sì.

He focused on papers for which it is possible to make a replication attempt and said “We don’t need journals anymore.” That is, he argued that we should not use which journal is willing to publish a paper as a signal of paper quality, but that we should use the signal of what bet authors offer in support of their paper.

That author betting offer would specify what would count as a replication attempt, and as a successful replication, and include an escrowed amount of cash and betting odds which set the amount a challenger must put up to try to win that escrowed amount. If the replication fails, the challenger wins these two amounts minus the cost of doing a replication attempt; if not the authors win that amount.


Bets As Signals of Article Quality http://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/10/bets-as-signals-of-article-quality.html

martedì 28 agosto 2018

LA SCIENZA IN BORSA


La scienza non è democratica: non si vota, si scommette

THEATLANTIC.COM
So why can't the journals that publish them?




La scienza nn è una democrazia...è una borsa
Camerer et al. (2018), the latest paper from the Social Science Replication Project, tried to replicate 21 social-science studies published in Nature or Science between 2010 and 2015. Before the replications were run the authors run a prediction market–as they had done on previous replication research–and once again the prediction market did a very good job predicting which studies would replicate and which would not...
A proposito la replica è bassina
And ultimately, they could only reproduce the results of 13 out of 21 studies—62 percent...
La base dati...
Consider the new results from the Social Sciences Replication Project, in which 24 researchers attempted to replicate social-science studies published between 2010 and 2015 in Nature and Science—the world’s top two scientific journals. ..




Gambling Can Save Science http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/08/gambling-can-save-science-2.html