Abstract:
Political actors, including voters, activists, and leaders, are often ignorant of basic facts relevant to policy
choices. Even experts have little understanding of the working of society and little ability to predict future
outcomes. Only the most simple and uncontroversial political claims can be counted on. This is partly because
political knowledge is very difficult to attain, and partly because individuals are not sufficiently motivated to
attain it. As a result, the best advice for political actors is very often to simply stop trying to solve social
problems, since interventions not based on precise understanding are likely to do more harm than good.
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