1HL 1 The Climate Change Objection to Economic Growth

11 The Climate Change Objection to Economic Growth
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justice is as much about creating conditions that are, as much as reasonably possible, conducive to productive or positive-sum relations between people across the globe.
Note:LA TESI DEL LIBRO

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engine of growth,
Note:LA RELAZIONE

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continued economic growth requires the emission of carbon dioxide. But as we all know, the atmosphere is heating up;
Note:L OBIEZIONE CONTRO LO SVILUPPISMO

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By cranking up the engines of the global market economy, we could end sacrificing the environment
Note:IL RISCHIO

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because dangerous climate change is coming, it is imperative that we have further growth.
Note:DOBBIAMO ALLORA RETTIFICARE L AUSPICIO?…FORSE DOBBIAMO RAFFORZARLO!

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A Comparative Approach
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“stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

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OBBIETTIVO IMPOSSIBILE DELL ONU

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temperatures will continue to rise for at least 50 more years no matter what we do.
Note:INEVITABILE...ANCHE A EMISSIONI ZERO DOMANI

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The levels of carbon currently in the atmosphere will make that happen.
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The world’s carbon emissions are still growing.
Note:OGGI....DOMANDA...È DESISERABE ABBATTERE?

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Even stabilizing current levels of emissions would mean continued heating.
Note:STABILIZZARE NN BASTA

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Our question is how, not whether, we are going to live in a warming world.
Note:UNA QUESTIONE PIÙ REALISTICA

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growth in the world’s emissions is due to economic growth in the developing world.
Note:LA CONDIZIONE OGGI

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Things such as infrastructure, health care, education, transport, and leisure, as well as the availability of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioning, are all essential to solving the problems of world poverty.
Note:POVERTÀ O RISCALDAMENTO?… DILEMMA....BEN POCO SI PUÓ FARE SENZA ENERGIA

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to demand that economic growth in the developing world stop
Note:PRIMA POSSIBILE RI CHIESTA DELL ECOLOGISYA

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let the developing world grow, but insist that the developed world greatly reduce its emissions
Note:SECONDA RICHIESTA

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to invest in noncarbon based energy production so as to allow further increases in energy use while decreasing carbon emissions.
Note:TERZA POSIZIONE

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Options one and two aim to impose those costs on different populations, while option three will have its own, different costs.
Note:CHI PAGA?

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That is, we cannot endorse a certain policy without asking whether the costs it imposes are acceptable in light of the available alternatives.
Note:NATURA COMPARATIVA DELLA SCELTA

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warming
Note:COSTO 1

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reduced growth
Note:COSTO 2

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The Cost of Foregoing Growth
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Darrel Moellendorf argues that it’s unreasonable for the world’s poor to bear the costs of climate change
Note:UNA POSIZIONE SULLE SCELTE

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the earth naturally provides a good climate and environment for humans, but thanks to industrialization, we are now ruining that.
Note:L ASSUNTO ERRATI DA CUI PARTONO MOLTI

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Absent technology, most of the Earth is a lousy place for human beings
Note:LA REALTÀ

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Without technology, many places are too cold for us. Many places are too hot.
Note:PER NN CONTARE LA SALUBRITÀ

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What makes Earth livable (outside of a narrow range) is technology.
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Our ability to live all over the world is technology-driven.
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When people are poor, not only are they more likely to suffer from starvation or disease, but their ability to cope with bad weather and weather disasters is also much worse.
Note:POVERTÀ ED ECOLOGIA

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weather-related deaths have declined dramatically over the past century. Despite a much larger population,
Note:INFATTI

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deaths are only about one-fiftieth now what they were 80 years ago.
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the EM-DAT International Disaster Database at the Université Catholique de Louvain,

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DATABASE

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costs of disasters has risen over the past 80 years
Note:COSTI SU MA MRTI GIÙ

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The fire that destroyed almost every house in London in 1666 produced only about £1.5 billion of damage in 2016 pounds.
Note:UN ESEMPIO

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As countries get wealthier, the economic costs of disasters tends to go up. But it’s much better, of course, to be rich and have your mansion damaged than to be poor and have your shack destroyed, even if the latter shows up as a smaller economic loss.
Note:DANNI ECONOMICI

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the total economic damage done by natural disasters, as a percentage of world product, remains roughly the same.
Note:ALTRO FATTO DECISIVO

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wealth allows us to better deal with storms and earthquakes. Wealthy people may have fancier cars, but they are also more likely to survive disasters. They are better able to avoid disasters, they live in stronger houses, they have better warning systems, and get better help afterward.
Note:CONCLUSIONE

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the risk of death from environmental factors is much higher in poor countries
Note:INFATTI

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A wealthier world is also a world in which more human minds can be dedicated to high-level problem-solving rather than meeting basic needs.
Note:ALTRO VANTAGGIO DEI RICCHI

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“To give an idea of the estimated damages in the uncontrolled (baseline) case, those damages in 2095 are $12 trillion, or 2.8% of global output, for a global temperature increase of 3.4 °C above 1900 levels.”
Note:IL DANNO IN TERMINI DI PIL CALCOLATO DA NORDHAUS....RITARDO DI UN ANNO

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product in 2095 will be $450 trillion
Note:IL CHE SIGNIFICA CHE

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he’s assuming a modest 2.5% annual growth rate.
Note:E QS STANDO PRUDENTI

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By contrast, stopping growth in order to save the climate would condemn billions of people to “poverty and disease for the indefinite future.”
Note:X CONTRO

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Climate change makes us worse off. Growth makes us better off. What we should do depends on the relative strength
Note:RICAPITOLANDO

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On Nordhaus’s estimate, even if we do nothing to reduce climate change, we’ll probably be vastly better off in 2095 than we are now.
Note:NORDHAUS

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the average person worldwide by 2095 will be as rich as the average German or Canadian right now.
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The 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change
Note:UN CALCOLO PIÙ PESSIMISTA...MA LA SOSTANZA NN CAMBIA

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climate change will reduce economic output by 20%.
Note:NEL 2100

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climate change will reduce world product in 2100 by 20% compared to a hypothetical baseline in which carbon emissions and temperatures had not risen.
Note:TRADOTTO

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The Netherlands and Bangladesh are both in large parts beneath sea level. But we need not worry about rising sea levels in the Netherlands nearly as much as we do in Bangladesh, because the Dutch can afford to protect themselves.
Note:IMMAGINE

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The Case for Growth Revisited
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The case for growth survives the threat of climate change, then.
Note:LA NS CONCLUSIONE

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The just thing for us to do is to implement policies that lead to growth and in turn outweigh the negative effects of climate change.
Note:STRATWGIA OTTIMA

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Some who think that more growth is not needed think that we already have the economic output to solve world poverty.
Note:I REDISTRIBUZIONISTI NATURALISTI

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We just need to re-allocate consumption
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freezing world output at current levels will not in fact stop global warming.
Note:PRIMO

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it’s questionable whether current output is enough to end world poverty.

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SECONDO

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World product per capita in 2015 was roughly $16,000 in current USD.19 This is about on par with the US poverty line,
Note:INFATTI

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Not all economic production occurs in a form that could, in principle, be converted to income and transferred or redistributed to individuals.
Note:PROBLEMA PRATICO....POI

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redistribution from developed to developing nations does not have a track record of success.
Note:LO SAPPIAMO BENE

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allowing the world’s poor to migrate to richer countries will itself cause growth,
Note:UNA COSA FRENATA DALLA REDISTRIBUZIONE

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The price will be that the world’s poor are morally required to remain as they are
Note:CONSEG DELLA REDISTRIB

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The challenge, then, is not whether we should encourage growth in light of climate change, but to what extent and where to encourage growth.
Note:LA VERA QUESTIONE

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Connections Part I: Innovation and the Environment
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Perhaps we should not stop overall economic growth, but reduce it.
Note:TORNIAMO ALLA PRIMA IPOTESI: FRENARE I RICCHI

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the relation between growth and our ability to avoid harming the environment.
Note:MA SONO PROPRIO LORO CHE HANNO PIÙ CHANXE DI RINNOVARE...OLTRE AL FATTO CHE LORO INQUINANO SEMPRE MENO

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there seems to exist a certain turning point, around $9,000 GDP/capita, at which countries typically start to pollute less per additional dollars’ worth of output.
Note:RICCHEZZA E INQUINAMENTO...CURVA DI KUZNETS

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Carbon emissions in 1900 were 1.8 tons per $1,000/GDP in $2005 USD. Emissions peaked in the 1930s at about 2.8 tons per $1,000/GDP. Since then they have fallen steadily, to about .4 tons per $1,000/GDP today.
Note:L ESEMPUO DEGLI USA

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environmental quality functions like a “superior good,” a good that is pursued more strongly by those with higher incomes.
Note:AMBIENTE BENE DI LUSSO

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Connections Part II: The Ability to Pay Principle
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A different possible response would aim to reduce growth overall, while redirecting its negative effects away from the world’s poor.
Note:SECONDA SOLUZIONE....DECRESCERE TUTTI E COMPENSARE I POVERI

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Darrel Moellendorf
Note:RAPPRESENTANTE

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since mitigating climate change should not harm the development of the world’s poor, the world’s developed countries should bear the burdens
Note:RIPETIAMO

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that principle does not imply an ability-to-pay policy. Indeed, the principle may well advocate against such a policy.
Note:COLPO DI SCENA

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countries aren’t autarkic economies, such that what happens in one does not affect the others.
Note:INFATTI....LE RICCHEZZE SONO INTERCONNESSE

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reducing growth in one society can seriously impact the possibility of growth in another.
Note:ESITO POSSIBILE...I RICCHI SONO IMPOSSIBILI DA TASSARE

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The poor country thus suffers proportionally more even though it was not subject to any emissions reduction.
Note:CI SONO CASI IN CUI

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Climate Change in a World of Incentives
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Reducing growth and reducing emissions are not the same thing.
Note:PARTIAMO DA UN CONCETO

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The first should be obvious, even if it’s rarely really mentioned. Fossil fuel subsidies around the world amount to about $500 billion per year. Most of these occur in developing countries, especially in oil-rich ones like Venezuela or Saudi Arabia.
Note:DUE MANOVRE...LA PRIMA

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The second is more familiar: a carbon tax.
Note:SECONDA

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It will incentivize the development of precisely those new and less-polluting technologies

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INCENTIVO

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The final and perhaps most important thing, however, is a further emphasis on one of our central conclusions. In order to get the incentives right, we must give people the option to act on them. And this means freeing the world from the enormous barriers that exist against free movement.
TERZA MANOVRA